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People are looking for 562K tomorrow... as long as the sale growth trend is over 540K with the revisions, which it should be 2016 will be another positive year for demand

Logan Mohtashami says

At some point we need to supply the market with smaller homes

the renovation market is one area that can and will help. lots of smaller affordable houses but they need some work. i don't buy the higher-density line, that's not what people desire in a SFH. so, certain neighborhoods will end up being modernized. this will hopefully fuel a move-up cycle next decade.

landtof says

lots of smaller affordable houses but they need some work.

Existing homes being cheaper will always be the case, my thesis is that the 4 decade run of building bigger and bigger homes has permanently supplied a higher net inflation of housing that can only be addressed if there is a long term reversal of this trend

At current pace in the next decade we will have a median sq ft. build out of over 3,000.

The builders have worked this cycle well because the demand for new homes hasn't been strong nor should it have been, but in next decade they don't have that luxury anymore.

The builders can counter by simply limiting construction to a degree in the next cycle as well.

It all goes back to the statement that I have heard for years now

If builders need to build more homes... what I am hearing ;-) ...... The builders need to build more expensive bigger homes to make housing more affordable but that thesis has terribly failed in the ramp up in construction and the slow and stead drive of construction.

If they push smaller homes, this can really help the supply chain and a few builders are trying this but all have admitted that this isn't the best money maker for them

Logan Mohtashami says

People are looking for 562K tomorrow... as long as the sale growth trend is over 540K with the revisions, which it should be 2016 will be another positive year for demand

592,000 blow out numbers.

Strategist says

592,000 blow out numbers.

This is why I wrote that article earlier

Time for New home sales to show growth

Working from recessionary headline numbers in year 8 of the expansion, these sales are way to low to be calling for peak housing

More important factor, is that revisions were positive... that's what you want to see... !!!

One of the key points I talked this year to my super bearish housing friends

They believed housing was peaking...

What I try to present is that ... when you have 154 Million working people and you have net 35 million of them making good money... New home sales around trend 560K isn't a lot homes to be calling for peak housing..

This is the best data point on why housing has legs and not peaking

Population adjusted data you're 41.8% below 1963 levels and headline is about 0.2% above 1963 levels

Ironman says

Until next month...

4 revision positive this year before August, that means the trend is fine and the only negative revision really came from that 600K print, this year is different than last year

I believe it was April 23, 2016 when I wrote the article "Time for New Home Sales To Show Growth"

Updated data line .. now you can see what I was talking about

I think the UK/US provide more than enough historical data.

Low Wages can only create a "Middle Class" if housing costs are kept to a minimum via subsidized construction for builders to use land to build for modest homeowners.

Ever since the US/UK stopped encouraging affordable housing, real estate costs have skyrocketed far higher than the rate of inflation. The correlation is almost perfect in both countries.

The government AND private industry can make money on it, while providing hundreds of thousands of jobs.

I am driving the Market Urban-ism people nuts with this thesis but none of them were versed in the data on the big home thesis and are trying to convince me that this isn't an issue

Always tell after 3 sentences if a group of people ever bothered to study the data .. then the best is just letting them talk, talk, talk until they realize they're not educated enough in the data lines they profess to be talking about