patrick.net

YesYNot says

Nevada was Clinton +5 about 10 days ago. It's made a huge swing in the last week. That seems pretty volatile and hard to predict to me.

What happened in the last week?

Besides Putin infiltrating the FBI and lying about Clinton's pay for play and Weiner's emails. :)

Just a coinky-dinky this went missing in 2009.

Logan Mohtashami says

This gives you a baseline of how Ugly it could get if

Clinton wins independents ( Romney won that last time)

College educated Whites vote democrat

Republicans in general have a 20%-30% no turn out vote

Bernie People come out and vote for Clinton

Also quote for posterity. If you really think Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, NC, Nebraska, and Ohio are in question, I want to know what you are smoking. This election will be won, or lost, in PA, NH, NM, CO, UT, WI, MI, or possibly parts of Maine. If I had to pin it on one state, I'm guessing PA. Why? It's because if Trump doesn't win PA, he has to win more of the midwest (I.E. - WI, MI, MN) and I suspect that PA is easier to win any of those 3, primarily because all of Western PA is (for all practical purposes) the newest red state. I also think we'll know early enough in the evening if it's going to be a Trump landslide. If Trump wins parts of Maine, and NH, or anything else in New England, he's probably going to be our next president. If New England goes all blue, then it's potentially a long evening. It's not that New England is all that important to Trump (it isn't if he wins PA), but I'm just pointing out if these usually solid blue area go red, it's signaling a trend that's going to carry through the rest of the country. Also, Proposition 69 in Colorado will not pass.

Logan Mohtashami says

Bernie People come out and vote for Clinton

Ummm...if patrick.net is any indication, nearly 100% of former Bernie supporters will vote Trump.

Good. That shows you who the special interests fear and love.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Ummm...if patrick.net is any indication, nearly 100% of former Bernie supporters will vote Trump.

Not true. Some will vote for Jill Stein.

Peter P says

Not true. Some will vote for Jill Stein.

Well, they aren't voting for Clinton.

Peter P says

Not true. Some will vote for Jill Stein.

Or stay home. If Bernie gets thousands to his rallies, but Hillary can't get more than a few hundred, obviously the Afterburners aren't super enthusiastic about her.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

What happened in the last week?

The FBI email story itself and the secondary effect: that story brought Trump out of his muppet shame spiral reinvigorated him and he is staying on message. That said, most polls didn't move 7 points. So, unless something weird is going on in Nevada, the old polls were probably skewed toward clinton a little, and the new ones probably skewed towards Trump. The polls are +-3 pts statistically. So, if you'd expect approximately a 3 pt swing in 50% of the states due to just statistical changes (going from +1.5 to -1.5) Half of those would swing one direction, and half would swing the other. In reality, with a lot of states, you might see a one with a 5 pt swing due to statistical variance in the polls alone. So 3 to 4 pts of the 7 pt swing could very well be statistical error. Also, IMO, the swing based on the FBI leak will probably come back a bit by the election.

YesYNot says

The FBI email story itself and the secondary effect: that story brought Trump out of his muppet shame spiral reinvigorated him and he is staying on message. That said, most polls didn't move 7 points. So, unless something weird is going on in Nevada, the old polls were probably skewed toward clinton a little, and the new ones probably skewed towards Trump. The polls are +-3 pts statistically. So, if you'd expect approximately a 3 pt swing in 50% of the states due to just statistical changes (going from +1.5 to -1.5) Half of those would swing one direction, and half would swing the other. In reality, with a lot of states, you might see a one with a 5 pt swing due to statistical variance in the polls alone. So 3 to 4 pts of the 7 pt swing could very well be statistical error. Also, IMO, the swing based on the FBI leak will probably come back a bit by the election.

This is a huge, multi-faceted scandal. It's about real corruption, not about locker room talk from a decade ago.

Now huge swings when not much is going on HAS happened in this election. However this swing does have a reason behind it.

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that either of them was the president, a correctional facility inmate, a Russian-Chinese hacker, a transgender cowboy/girl, a whorehouse pimp, or Santa Clause, himself....

This is such an unprecedented election, I don't know how anyone could feel certain about anything. And we still have five more days to learn even more crazy shit about these people.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia are tossups.

Wisconsin and Michigan are approaching tossup status this evening.

Trump will win Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, and then the rest of the red states.

He's going to run the table, and flip some major brue blue states, winning 320+ electoral college votes in the process.

Robert Sproul says

I think that is exactly what working class America is scared of.

cause working class america will do so good under Trump policies: you know, trade war with everone, piss off our friends in the world.

the exact middle class are so fucked if he wins, fortunately, I'm very wealthy, and will be fine!

Maybe it wasn't such a great idea to Coronate the Queen of Corruption over the populist insurgent with strong grassroot support, who consistently brought more asses to seats at his Nomination Rallies than Crooked can draw to General Election Rallies.

T- 5 nights now.

Will amend each day, accordingly.

#PlaceYourBets

You know, you can't link to this thread because of the * in the thread title.

Trump leading in 2012's most accurate poll, IBD

6.4M Early Florida Votes, as opposed to 4.4M last in the Election Cycle. Massive increase! Let's hope it's not all Brenda's Broward trickery. I got a feeling the campaign that can't bring in more than a few hundred people at a time isn't the beneficiary of all this enthusiasm.

Furthermore:

The Democrats hold a lead going into Election Day, but their lead is significantly smaller than it was four years ago. In 2012, Democrats scored 43 percent of the early vote in Florida, and Republicans scored 40 percent. In the end, Barack Obama won Florida, but it was a tight race, with the president defeating Mitt Romney by a margin of just 0.88 percentage points. Democratic turnout tends to be high in early voting, and Republican turnout tends to be high on Election Day. So the fact that the Democrats don’t have as large a lead as they did four years ago may spell trouble for Hillary Clinton.

If Romney lost by less than 1 point, I gotta feeling Trump will Stump the Witch of War and Wall Street, Romney in a Pantsuit.

Florida's ground game is the Silent majority, most Trump voters have sworn all along we would hold out to vote on election day.

Trump will destroy the evil & corrupted globalist. it will be the biggest upset ever.

a few has-been and nobody-cares celebrities will leave but oh well.

Tenpoundbass says

Florida's ground game is the Silent majority, most Trump voters have sworn all along we would hold out to vote on election day.

Why?

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

If Romney lost by less than 1 point, I gotta feeling Trump will Stump the Witch of War and Wall Street, Romney in a Pantsuit.

Have to wait and see, but those numbers are registered voters not who they voted for. 26% of Latinos are registered Republicans in Florida. How many of those do you think will be voting Trump?

Rashomon says

26% of Latinos are registered Republicans in Florida. How many of those do you think will be voting Trump?

I'd say the grand majority of Cubans will be voting Trump. They don't like how Obama has been getting all friendly with the Castro regime. Also they are Hispanic not Latino (who they look down on). Different voting block entirely from your average California Latino.

Rashomon says

Have to wait and see, but those numbers are registered voters not who they voted for. 26% of Latinos are registered Republicans in Florida.

You know most Latinos in this country fled a Left wing lunatic government. They didn't come here to elect new problems. They will tell you they will, becuase you are being nice to them because you want something. They don't have the heart to tell you Haji.

Tenpoundbass says

You know most Latinos in this country fled a Left wing lunatic government. They didn't come here to elect new problems. They will tell you they will, becuase you are being nice to them because you want something. They don't have the heart to tell you Haji.

TPB, you never fail to meet the low expectations I have of you.

Many Hondurans won't be voting for Hillary, also.

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09TEGUCIGALPA645_a.html
http://www.democracynow.org/2016/3/11/before_her_assassination_berta_caceres_singled

You think the large surge in Hispanic votes is because they're enraptured by Trump like you and TPB? Really?

http://www.11alive.com/news/local/trump-takes-32-25-lead-in-new-hampshire-after-midnight-voting/349662501
Trump takes 32-25 lead in New Hampshire after midnight voting

Brexit ++++

It will be called at 9:45 pm and Hillbots will go into deep, dark depression.

Hillary will change her colostomy bag and have vital meds injected at 10:30 and then call and concede her loss and congratulate Trump at 11:00 p.m.

AllTruth says

Trump will win Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, and then the rest of the red states.

He's going to run the table, and flip some major brue blue states, winning 320+ electoral college votes in the process.

I agree Trump will win, but he won't carry Wisconsin or Colorado. Virginia will be MUCH closer than anyone has thus far mentioned.

8e6e0 says

Hillbots will go into deep, dark depression.

intellligent people all over the world will go into a depression immediately if Trump wins.

Assholes like you will go into a depression as his terrible leadership affects your lives, later on. It will be too late for a do-over then, and maybe too late to fix the problems ever.

40c8 says

It will be too late for a do-over then

No Mulligans?

1) What sane person would want to be the next POTUS with the MASSIVE problems that the U.S. & world face.

2) Trump is likely to win. There's a white working-class and middle-class wave of voters that Michael Moore spoke of that are enthused in an historically unprecedented fashion turning out to vote, a significant % of whom identified as Reagan Democrats or haven't voted in a long time (they became non-participatory); this will be apparent as the votes begin being counted at 8 pm tonight on the east coast and Midwest.

3) Whoever wins is likely to be a one-term president for reason #1 above.

AllTruth says

1) What sane person would want to be the next POTUS with the MASSIVE problems that the U.S. & world face.

They are typically sane, but very different personality types than your average person.

AllTruth says

2) Trump is likely to win.

That's some non-conventional wisdom.
The paths for Hillary are many while the paths for Trump are few and precarious.

AllTruth says

3) Whoever wins is likely to be a one-term president for reason #1 above.

Agree not for number 1, but there is a general shift here and in the world. 2020 is going to be quite unusual.

AllTruth says

1) What sane person would want to be the next POTUS with the MASSIVE problems that the U.S. & world face.

Isn't that almost always the case?

Congratulations to freespeechforever for forecasting the closest call I've seen from ANYONE in real life or pundit-wise.

An eerie accurate call, dude.

he thought Trump was superman from another planet and got disappointed

#perfectpresidentwanted