patrick.net

If he gets what he says he wants, yeah. That's about right. What's missing is the huge costs to small, medium, and large American businesses who import Chinese goods in their supply chain or have spent lots of time and money optimizing their supply chains around a fee trade agenda. That's all baked into the estimate of job losses, but it helps to draw a clear picture.
I think cooler head will prevent some of the petty abuse of power that he regularly talks about, like suing the women and judges that have 'wronged' him and locking up Hillary. But you never know. Trying to predict what part of Trump's rhetoric is bluster and what is true desire is a fools game.

American businesses would lose hundreds of billions of dollars in exports. A Moody’s report done for The Post predicts a net cost to the United States of 7 million jobs.

McDonalds, Burger King, Starbucks, etc. are in the export business?

Some of the fast food supply chains are probably local to the country they sell in, but other parts are likely produced in US. The potatoes are probably grown in Idaho, for example. Starbucks obviously does not grow the beans in the US. The expansion of Starbucks in other countries does create jobs in the US, though.

An interesting disruptive aspect of all of this is that things that many would expect to be made in the US, like cars have sprawling supply chains. Creating chaos in the supply chains and causing companies the move things around will create a huge amount of busy work and likely cause big issues as companies companies struggle to stay competitive.

Almost all the comments of the OP are pro-Trump. Get used to this phrase Leftists: President Trump!

Chuck Norris never has to purchase ammo!
His left and right feet never run out of roundhouse kick awesomeness!

komputodo says

American businesses would lose hundreds of billions of dollars in exports.

Article fails to mention how many MORE jobs will be created in the US when we stop importing things that we can and should be making ourselves.

YesYNot says

What's missing is the huge costs to small, medium, and large American businesses who import Chinese goods in their supply chain or have spent lots of time and money optimizing their supply chains around a fee trade agenda.

Suppliers come and go all the time. It's not like the tsunami in Japan where stuff simply couldn't be had, it will just be more expensive until domestic suppliers can replace imports.

Be honest now Marcus. Tell us why you are really scared. It's because the first day of a Trump Presidency means you immediately become obsolete. Your life's work as a Hillary schill and sycophant covering up her lies and illegal activity will have ended up in complete failure. Without the establishment, who needs your pen to help deceive the masses, your entire world falls apart.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Trump Presidency means you immediately become obsolete

Would you please share with me the names of five most respected (but also well known) provably intelligent people that are Trump supporters ? This is a serious question. PLEASE.

How can that be such a difficult task if this guy gonna be so great ? Is it that one has to be unintelligent, gullible, or both to get it ?

marcus is NOT deplorable says

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Trump Presidency means you immediately become obsolete

Would you please share with me the names of five most respected (but also well known) provably intelligent people that are Trump supporters ? This is a serious question. PLEASE.

How can that be such a difficult task if this guy gonna be so great ? Is it that one has to be unintelligent, gullible, or both to get it ?

How would you know someone else's IQ?

I'll go with this:

Since we had to IQ test into gifted and then honors an AP courses in 7th grade, my self and two of my friends qualify. Myself and one of the friends tested in the 135-140 range and the other between 145 and 150. My dad had to test a few times in his job and always was 155-165.

Let me add...my younger brother has an IQ in the 120's but is more financially successful than any of us...entirely through the hard work of himself and his wife. I know lefties like you don't beleive that's possible but it is. They busted their asses building their own business.

Growing up he used to hate politics while I loved it. Finally, after his business was flourishing, he stunned me by saying "why the hell do all these people support the democrats". I hugged him.

marcus is NOT deplorable says

Would you please share with me the names of five most respected (but also well known) provably intelligent people that are Trump supporters ? This is a serious question. PLEASE.

Well known people is what I was asking for. I think you would probably have to go to google, and you can find some people that made it through law school. But if this movement is so great, why aren't there a lot of names of people in science, technology, the arts ? That is people that are at least thought of as being very intelligent, that are behind Trump ?

I looked here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign_endorsements,_2016, at the lower part that includes people in business, and celebrities. Not very imressive considering how self righteous ZZYZZX feels about it.

Here, I'll play devils advocate. PErhaps becasue of the crazy stuff Trump has said, and becasue of the extreme gap between who he says he is, and who many people perceive Trump to be, the smart Trump supporters with reputations to protect are not wanting their name associated with him. Also, since he is projected to lose (still over 2:1 odds against him winning) why should they go out on a limb associating their name with this unpopular candidate whose support is largely from white working class people in the least diverse states.

By the way, I have nothing against white working class people. In fact i consider myself to be one.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

komputodo says

American businesses would lose hundreds of billions of dollars in exports.

I didn't say that...that was supposed to be a quote from the article.

DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie says

Pense will have no choice but to decapitate TRUMPLIGULA! and reclaim AMERICA! for JESUS! and prepare the way for APOCALYPSE! and RAPTURE!

But before that happens, can I make a quick stop at Chilis for the fajita special. I need to be home in time to watch TEEN MOM.

America! The land of Jesus and Guns! Hallelujah!

@Patrick - Thanks again for the link at the bottom. The coming weeks should be interesting to see what was posted around the election last year.

I didn't vote for Trump, but I have to say that the roughly first 10 months definitely have not lived up to the hyperbole of the media. I'm mean read the ending of the OP's article below.

This is life in the early days of a Trump presidency: economic shock, international instability and constitutional crisis as Trump makes the presidency his plaything.

Don’t say you weren’t warned.

I think there have been attempts to somehow make these issues, but life during Trump has remained completely the same to me compared to Obama. I'm talking on a personal level as I'm sure someone will point out something that is negative Trump has done, which obviously exists. Not saying he's perfect or that I even like him.

The problem is that people place way too much emphasis on the president like he/they have dictatorial powers or something. I mean, how could a president single handily do what the author of this article states? Or at least any one think that Trump would deliberately cause those problems and a media source would have multiple people review this article and think it's good stuff. Anyone that reads this has to admit to some level, that this is garbage and understand some of the push back against the media.

WookieMan says

Anyone that reads this has to admit to some level, that this is garbage and understand some of the push back against the media.

Yes, exactly!

Trump is not Hitler. He couldn't be even if he wanted to.

The media has treated Trump unfairly. Not that he's a great guy, but their insane obsession with him is telling. They know they have been unfair, and are afraid that everyone on earth will soon realize that and simply stop listening to them because they have squandered their credibility.

Quigley says

Get used to this phrase Leftists: President Trump

Called it!

If you only heard from MSM you’d think that the entire country had been captured by the Trump administration and that everyone is traumatized and devastated. Well, close to half of the population by number , and most of the country by region are quite pleased and in fact many are ecstatic that Trump won. For them it isn’t a disaster , and is closer to a miracle. They feel that Trump is attempting to address the issues that they think are important. Most areas of the country don’t vote Democratic, and don’t like Democratic policies, and don’t like liberals, and are sick and tired of the media acting like they don’t exist , and if they do exist , are nothing but uneducated , worthless hicks, and rednecks that don’t require or deserve representation. Well , they do exist, and Trump recognized them, and in America everybody gets to vote. So it turns out the conservative, non liberal areas of America do matter, even if the Dems and the media chose to ignore and denigrate them for many years.
So now that Trump won, we can test out all the doomsday scenario predictions of the Dems and Media shills. Did the stock market crash? No, quite the opposite. Trade war with Mexico or China. No. Tyrannical prosecution of political foes? No, again, quite the opposite. Etc.
Great to see the Democrats self destructing. Great to see Hillary’s deceptions and corruptions exposed. Great to see the economy disproving the manipulative press. Great to see Trump appointing respectable and capable cabinet members and appointees, such as Tillerson, Kelly, Gorsuch, Mattis, and Sessions. Great to see the sold out press being exposed!

My case is that the polling was proven to be inaccurate. Trump’s victory was evidence of the opinions and wishes of the US electorate. Despite all the scare tactics, the country hasn’t collapsed, the economy is improving in terms of employment numbers, Trump is pursuing stricter immigration policy, stricter illegal drug policy, has appointed a conservative, respected Supreme Court justice, has represented US political and trade interests more strongly, for example with respect to Iran and China. Trumps supporters can see what he’s done and know what he is up against. The media shills trying to convince the country that everyone in so disappointed have no case to make except that their discredited pollsters say so. Like I said, we can see what Trump has done, we can see what he’s trying to do, and we recognize the successes and respect the effort being made. We can also see what the Media and the pollsters have done and what they continue to try to do, and no one cares any more.

Not that ridiculous given that many diverse and supposedly independent interests were opposed to Trump, and the polling was virtually all both negative and inaccurate in its assessment of Trumps popularity and prospects. Might be hard to believe that all the pollsters are corrupted or at least highly unreliable in a very important situation, but there is a precedent for this now. Maybe they can make more money by selling out than being accurate? Let’s just see how the midterm elections turn out.

The polls were acccurate when it didn’t matter who won because the same people and organizations had their claws in both the Dems and the Republicans. Heads I win, tails you lose. As soon as a non Dem/Republican attempted to take the presidency , it turns out the media and the polls are on the same side, and it’s not Trump’s side. Look how unified all the past presidents are now. All uniformly disgusted and bewildered by what’s happening. They, the media, and the pollsters were all part of the same illusion of a balance of power and the fantasy that the electorate had a choice between two very different candidates. In fact there wasn’t much difference untill Trump came along. Now all of a sudden, Obama and Clinton are on the same side as the Bushes. Which is the same side as the MSM, and the pollsters. So, not surprising that this time the polls were monolithicly wrong. And not surprising if they still are.

anonymous says

"Trump is an extraordinary leader, perfect for the times" ????????????

President Trump Revealed He 'Never Knew We Had So Many Countries'

Beginning his Asian tour Saturday after touching ground in Japan, President Donald Trump detailed his high regard for the relationship between him and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - and his apparent lack of knowledge about the number of countries in the world.

"So my relationship with Shinzo got off to quite a rocky start because I never ran for office, and here I am," Trump said at the dinner. "But I never ran, so I wasn’t very experienced. And after I had won, everybody was calling me from all over the world. I never knew we had so many countries."

http://www.ibtimes.com/president-trump-revealed-he-never-knew-we-had-so-many-countries-2611156

Sorry - this is not from the Onion, the Babylon Bee or any o...

It’s called humor.
There you go again putting down the electorate that put Trump in office, and buying in to the characterization of trump as unintelligent. Do this at your peril, Trump won the presidency. That’s how unintelligent he is.

I don't agree with everything, but I like the job he has done so far, and I hope he does a great job with future issues.

I know “you’re going to regret it”. That’s what you said before the election, and now you’re still saying it. We don’t regret it. We won’t regret it.
Great to have some fresh political leadership in America who isn’t beholden to the Democrats or Republicans, and their controllers. Trump may not be perfect, but he is not a sell out. Trump is trying to do what he believes is right for the country. He is standing up to the Democrats and the Republicans. He is standing up against the Chinese and the Iranians and the Europeans. He is representing the United States. You are missing it.

I know “you’re going to regret it”. That’s what you said before the election, and now you’re still saying it. We don’t regret it. We won’t regret it.
Great to have some fresh political leadership in America who isn’t beholden to the Democrats or Republicans, and their controllers. Trump may not be perfect, but he is not a sell out. Trump is trying to do what he believes is right for the country. He is standing up to the Democrats and the Republicans. He is standing up against the Chinese and the Iranians and the Europeans. He is representing the United States. You are missing it.

We need Trump to resurrect a Charles Bronson as an anti-Dworkin Golem. Can't somebody e-mail Trump the recipe conjuring for a Bronson Golem?

The Leftists and SJW types have proven that “incorrect” political speech(or even ideas) can have real world consequences for regular Americans. Many voters with something to lose decline to state their opinions publicly, preferring to make their voices heard at the ballot box where their “speech” is SECRET and effective.

I know that I don’t even participate in polls as a rule, so it’s not a stretch to think that others who mistrust the system do not either. And with all the hostility toward Trump supporters, voters clearly lie in exit polls to avoid stating their political beliefs.

We may think Trump is acting a fool now and then, but we’d stoll rather have him than Crooked Hillary or another of the elitist shills like Obama or a shrub we’ve been subjected to for decades.

PaisleyPattern says

My case is that the polling was proven to be inaccurate

And that's not even true. The polling error was about the same as usual. Much better on a national level, but a little worse on a state level.

The problem was the media didn't understand how to interpret the polling data correctly.

PaisleyPattern says

The electoral college vote was a blowout. The popular vote is irrelevant. Accurate polling should have predicted the result.

Nope--that's not how it works.

#1--polling is a lagging indicator as there is a time delay between gathering data, compiling it, and publicizing the results. In a dynamic system, where undecided voters are finally deciding, there will be error. In the case of the 2016 election, those undecided voters broke heavily for Trump.
#2--polling doesn't predict the electoral college.

National polls were pretty dead on actually. 2016 wasn't a failing of polling as much as it was a failing of talking heads that didn't understand probability and modeling.

Here's some data:



There were many, many more undecided voters than typical. Which leads to much higher error bar than typical. Unfortunately, most talking heads didn't grasp this.

Also, you'll note that polling was off about the same 3-4% in most other years. It just didn't swing the election in those years so nobody noticed.

Pols are meant to sway public opinion not reflect them.
80% of Trump voters wont give Polsters the time of day let alone our political opinion.
We're all under the full understanding that it would just be manipulated so we don't participate.
When you say we're at 20% we know that means 60%.

PaisleyPattern says

My point is that as a barometer and indicator of voter sentiment , the media and the pollsters they used dramatically discredited themselves in the 2016 elections.

And your point is clearly wrong. The data shows it to be absolutely incorrect.

Trump’s victory was evidence of the opinions and wishes of the US electorate

————

Less than 63 million out of 320 million citizens.
That’s not even 20% of the population.

How many of those 63 million are mindless pawns of The Church who only ever vote Republican?

Most Americans understand that the country was founded on the idea that there should be separation from The Church, and the State. Why do Christians hate America, Freedom, and The Constitution?

Sniper says

It was proven, over and over and over and over.

Nope--what was proven is that you don't understand polling methodology.

At a time of unprecedented party gridlock, an outsider beats both parties

—————

How do you figure? You realize Trump is a Republican. Republicans hold absolute power in all three branches.

The outsider was Bernie Sanders, and it’s proven fact that the media and both major parties, conspired against him, so much so, he never stood a chance, even though he had overwhelming support from the citizenry.

If what you suggest is true, that Trump was elected because Americans were sold on his campaign promises, then why would they be satisfied with his presidency? He hasn’t followed through with any of his campaign promises. Shouldn’t that make those people dissatisfied?

joeyjojojunior says

PaisleyPattern says

My point is that as a barometer and indicator of voter sentiment , the media and the pollsters they used dramatically discredited themselves in the 2016 elections.

And your point is clearly wrong. The data shows it to be absolutely incorrect.

I’m sure you can read the data and polls anyway you want. That is the nature of polling and statistics. However, there is no point trying to convince anyone that the media consensus and the popular interpretation of polling prior to the 2016 election wasn’t that Hillary had it locked up. It is entirely revisionistic to claim that the polling data was ambiguous.Media and polling worked together to present the public with an impression of the state of popular opinion in the United States. The media consistently made the case for Hillary having a substantial lead. As I recall, none of the polling organizations came out to contradict this consensus. This makes them complicit and discredits them

PaisleyPattern says

the popular interpretation of polling prior to the 2016 election was that Hillary had it locked up

This is correct. The interpretation overstated the actual lead Clinton had.

PaisleyPattern says

It is entirely revisionistic to claim that the polling data was ambiguous

Nope--smart people like Nate Silver said that before the election.

PaisleyPattern says

As I recall, none of the polling organizations came out to contradict this consensus

That's because polling companies do polls and put out the results. They don't interpret the polls or construct models based on the polls. Your beef is with the idiots that didn't realize a 3% swing towards Trump in a few select states (which is quite normal) would result in Trump winning.