patrick.net

Straw Man says

But was it a right thing to do in the grant scheme of things? Most of the things you listed as "great achievements" (heavy rockets, nukes and heroic beachhead landings) are simply mopping up of earlier government fuckups.

Your point was that the gov can't do anything. Case in point, it can.
You can split hair forever on whether this was or wasn't a good idea. We could say the same about Facebook. Was a massive private surveillance/propaganda apparatus a good idea? Uh....

FortWayne says

There's your other problems Dan. You reason from bias, not from knowledge

I justify my position with actual evidence. You do nothing but assert.

Heraclitusstudent says

Yeah, ask yourself do you really want that situation? This is just projecting the current trend.

We’re not down to one plutocrat, but you are already at the mercy of the existing plutocrats:

As long as they can easily convince enough gullible sheeple that redistribution’s theft.

And as long as they don’t realize that sometime you have to sow to harvest later on.

It would never happen. Big companies rise and fall. New companies take over. Constant competition.

For instance in 1950, the biggest company by market cap was General Motors. Where is GM today?

U.S. Steel was the #2 company by market cap. Now China owns the steel industry.

It's hard to stay on top in Capitalist societies due to competition, now even more because of international global interdependence. In fact the only time you get companies that get monopolies is when the state gets heavily involved, and picks winners. Giving more money to government creates the exact problem you're hoping to avoid.

Goran_K says

It would never happen. Big companies rise and fall. New companies take over. Constant competition.

Wishful thinking.

Companies change, but they are larger and larger, increasingly international, and increasingly dominant. The fights are between mega-corporations that dominate their industries worldwide. And they are increasingly efficient and automated and require a decreasing number of workers. (Facebook has a fraction of the employees GM had). This is the trend.

On the other side of that: why can’t a homeless grow or hunt his own food? Why can’t a small community build their own stuff? Because they are increasingly forbidden access to land, to resources, and even if they have access, the level of skills required to compete is increasing rapidly. You can’t wake up one morning with a few friends and create a competitor to Amazon. You can’t build your own phone. You can’t grow your own food or build your own house the way your ancestors might have done.

Add AI to this, and you're fucked. The mega-corporations simply won’t need you. Trucks will be driven automatically. Farms will be run automatically. Burgers will be flipped by robots. Etc, etc...
Ai will make most of humanity obsolete. This is happening. This is the trend.

Heraclitusstudent says

Ai will make most of humanity obsolete. This is happening. This is the trend.

Technology is going to keep progressing.

In the Matrix, Neo found a way to have a good relationship with the killer AI.

In Terminator, John Connor lead a successful resistance.

What is your solution?

Goran_K says

What is your solution?

Staying in the increasingly small set of people that profit.
What's yours?

Heraclitusstudent says

Staying in the increasingly small set of people that profit.

What's yours?

I don't believe your scenario has a chance of happening. Though it's an interesting sci-fi narrative.

"Those who dismiss the improbable are like the caterpillar, who setting up to cross a forest trail, refuses to believe it will be made into a freeway before he reaches the other side. “
Confucius.

Heraclitusstudent says

"Those who dismiss the improbable are like the caterpillar, who setting up to cross a forest trail, refuses to believe it will be made into a freeway before he reaches the other side. “

Confucius.

“The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory, is that conspiracy theorists believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is actually chaotic. The truth is that it is not The Iluminati, or The Jewish Banking Conspiracy, or the Gray Alien Theory.

The truth is far more frightening - Nobody is in control.

The world is rudderless.”
― Alan Moore

Just observe carefully:
- Globalization = winner take all, on the planet scale. Few winners, many losers.
- US corporations unspent cash level
- #U.S.’s contingent workforce—temps, on-call workers, contract company workers, independent contractors, freelancers—i.e. almost doubled in 20 years.
- 6 millions unfilled job openings: while we still need a lot of workers, the work now requires much higher education leaving many behind.
- the staggering decline in labor force participation by men of prime working age, 25 to 54.
- # of Americans on food stamps

The current level of machine learning tech means a wave a change at least equal to that caused by the Internet.
Indeed just like the Internet made available to a computer data from an other computer, allowing social & distributed applications, machine learning makes available to computers data that so far was processed 100% by humans, that is the vast majority of available data. This opens the door to rapid expansion of tech beyond where it stands today. While we are still in the early stages, I think we can’t escape a major new wave of automation.

Goran_K says

The truth is far more frightening - Nobody is in control.

Let's just say there are several groups of Iluminati. They don't control everything - yet.

Heraclitusstudent says

Just observe carefully:

- Globalization = winner take all, on the planet scale. Few winners, many losers.

- US corporations unspent cash level

- #U.S.’s contingent workforce—temps, on-call workers, contract company workers, independent contractors, freelancers—i.e. almost doubled in 20 years.

- 6 millions unfilled job openings: while we still need a lot of workers, the work now requires much higher education leaving many behind.

- the staggering decline in labor force participation by men of prime working age, 25 to 54.

- # of Americans on food stamps

A large part of what you're complaining isn't globalization or deadly artificial intelligence, it's people either not graduating from college or going to college for the wrong degrees and not getting the right education.

People are indoctrinated to go to college, and get a degree in gender studies, or something equally useless as a degree to attain employment, and end up unemployed with no employable skills. A lot of the 6 million job openings you're talking about are long in the tooth trades like "electricians", or plumbers, or HVAC specialist, not specialized killer AI programmers. Older tradesmen are retiring, or leaving the field, and there are literally no plumbers to take their place because kids are taught to look down upon trades, and put liberal degrees on a pedestal.

Seriously, if you can pull up your sleeves, don't mind getting sweaty or dirty, and get a 12 month apprenticeship, you can make $40-$60 an hour as a plumber.

But instead, millennials want to act like weak ass bitches, complaining that there are no jobs (there are plenty of jobs), and expect everything to be handed to them on a silver platter.

Nope--that's just BS. If all the folks with crappy college degrees suddenly learned trades, then we'd have a huge oversupply of plumbers, electricians, and HVAC specialists.

joeyjojojunior says

Nope--that's just BS. If all the folks with crappy college degrees suddenly learned trades, then we'd have a huge oversupply of plumbers, electricians, and HVAC specialists.

We don't know how many would even try. But right now there is a shortage, and people aren't even applying for the jobs.

Goran_K says

We don't know how many would even try. But right now there is a shortage, and people aren't even applying for the jobs.

It doesn't matter how many would try. My point is correct.

joeyjojojunior says

It doesn't matter how many would try. My point is correct.

Yes if every college student who majored in liberal studies became a plumber then we'd have too many plumbers.

Yes, you are correct tatupu. You should feel good for being correct, or an award of some sort. Good job.

Why thank you. Now that we've established that, do you see that the problem isn't that the workforce is untrained (or uneducated), but rather that there just aren't enough jobs?

Where do you live where hvac and plumbers are in short supply?

Or does that actually play out statistically?

Goran_K says

Seriously, if you can pull up your sleeves, don't mind getting sweaty or dirty, and get a 12 month apprenticeship, you can make $40-$60 an hour as a plumber.

I don't mind either, but honestly, plumber knowledge is easily available on the web. I just had to do a bit of plumbing earlier this week when one of my toilets started leaking sewage water at the base. Turns out the wax seal was mostly gone, do I removed the toilet, scraped the seat hole clean, installed a new ring, and reseated the toilet. Not a fun job, but only cost me $8.95 for the rubber ring (upgrade from wax) instead of the $200-$300 a plumber would charge.
But I suppose not that many people would DIY on a job like that: hence plumbers stay busy.

joeyjojojunior says

Why thank you. Now that we've established that, do you see that the problem isn't that the workforce is untrained (or uneducated), but rather that there just aren't enough jobs?

No, statistics do not agree with that statement. The employment rate for people with at least a 2 year degree, trade certificate, and 4 year degree are still extremely low, lower than the actual U3 unemployment rate. So it's not a jobs problem, it's a skills problem.

Goran_K says

Older tradesmen are retiring, or leaving the field, and there are literally no plumbers to take their place because kids are taught to look down upon trades

That's the same narrative that I hear from many Trump supporters; it's not true. I have a friend who is plumber who does well right now; he was unemployed for about two years during financial crisis even though he is in the union.

errc says

Where do you live where hvac and plumbers are in short supply?

Or does that actually play out statistically?

This is based on a professional survey given by the ACG of America, the largest organization of General Contractors in the U.S.

According to the survey, 86% of respondents said the #1 problem facing their firm was "Trouble filling salaried and/or hourly positions".

tr6 says

That's the same narrative that I hear from many Trump supporters; it's not true. I have a friend who is plumber who does well right now; he was unemployed for about two years during financial crisis even though he is in the union.

Yes, so were a lot more people. The financial crisis began nearly a decade ago and peaked 6 years ago. Those were different times.

On the mend, but not recovered. What happens when the next recession hits? Similar trend of not making full recovery in employment? Seems likely to me.

Goran_K says

According to the survey, 86% of respondents said the #1 problem facing their firm was "Trouble filling salaried and/or hourly positions".

Actually what they say is

"Trouble filling salaried and/or hourly positions at the pay they are offering"

Goran_K says

It would never happen. Big companies rise and fall. New companies take over. Constant competition.

For instance in 1950, the biggest company by market cap was General Motors. Where is GM today?

GM had 60% market share in the 50's and 60's. Then the Japanese came, and the rest is history.
Damn unions.

Goran_K says

So it's not a jobs problem, it's a skills problem.

Most people are too dumb to be data scientists. It's not something that's actionable unless you're considering genetic engineering.
This means for average human beings it's not a skill problem, it's a job problem.

That's exactly my point. A majority of human beings will soon be useless. Factor that in when you say "redistribution is theft."

Strategist says

GM had 60% market share in the 50's and 60's. Then the Japanese came, and the rest is history.

Damn unions.

Japanese workers are unionized too. So are German.

Perhaps it was just poor management decisions that killed the US automakers? Like being late to the show on quality and fuel efficiency?

joeyjojojunior says

Strategist says

GM had 60% market share in the 50's and 60's. Then the Japanese came, and the rest is history.


Damn unions.

Japanese workers are unionized too. So are German.

Perhaps it was just poor management decisions that killed the US automakers? Like being late to the show on quality and fuel efficiency?

Nope. The greedy American unions and the lazy, disloyal American workers are the problem.
The Japanese workers are ferociously loyal to their companies. They care for their company, thus turning out quality products. There was a guy who worked for Chrysler, who said he would leave out a screw, every time he got mad at his supervisor. The unions in America create an "us vs them" mentality against the management.

Strategist says

Nope. The greedy American unions and the lazy, disloyal American workers are the problem.

Of course they are. Making shit cars had nothing to do with the decline of US auto makers.

Strategist says

The Japanese workers are ferociously loyal to their companies. They care for their company, thus turning out quality products. There was a guy who worked for Chrysler, who said he would leave out a screw, every time he got mad at his supervisor. The unions in America create an "us vs them" mentality against the management

And why are they like that?? You don't think management has any culpability?

The difference in management styles between the Japanese car companies and the US car companies was about as stark as they come. It's funny how the same US workers care when they work for Honda or Toyota in the US....

joeyjojojunior says

Strategist says

The Japanese workers are ferociously loyal to their companies. They care for their company, thus turning out quality products. There was a guy who worked for Chrysler, who said he would leave out a screw, every time he got mad at his supervisor. The unions in America create an "us vs them" mentality against the management

And why are they like that?? You don't think management has any culpability?

The difference in management styles between the Japanese car companies and the US car companies was about as stark as they come. It's funny how the same US workers care when they work for Honda or Toyota in the US....

I would agree. Management style can make a hell of a difference. We have a lot to learn.

Strategist says

joeyjojojunior says

Strategist says

The Japanese workers are ferociously loyal to their companies. They care for their company, thus turning out quality products. There was a guy who worked for Chrysler, who said he would leave out a screw, every time he got mad at his supervisor. The unions in America create an "us vs them" mentality against the management

And why are they like that?? You don't think management has any culpability?

The difference in management styles between the Japanese car companies and the US car companies was about as stark as they come. It's funny how the same US workers care when they work for Honda or Toyota in the US....

I would agree. Management style can make a hell of a difference. We have a lot to learn.

I would agree too. Unions are used to bilk money and benefits in the US. In Japan there is actually pride of work, something that I believe has been lost to US union workers.

Heraclitusstudent says

Goran_K says

So it's not a jobs problem, it's a skills problem.

Most people are too dumb to be data scientists. It's not something that's actionable unless you're considering genetic engineering.

This means for average human beings it's not a skill problem, it's a job problem.

That's exactly my point. A majority of human beings will soon be useless. Factor that in when you say "redistribution is theft."

In general are people dumb or lazy? I would contend that it's a lot more of the latter.

joeyjojojunior says

Goran_K says

According to the survey, 86% of respondents said the #1 problem facing their firm was "Trouble filling salaried and/or hourly positions".

Actually what they say is

"Trouble filling salaried and/or hourly positions at the pay they are offering"

No it doesn't say "that" at all. At 86%, they are talking about market rate.

Market rate is the rate at which jobs get filled. So, if the jobs aren't getting filled, it's not market rate

Kids these days are just entitled and lazy when brought up by parents who don't teach value of hard work. I know parents like that, their kids are going to be hit with a dose of reality one day when they have to be on their own. Haven't worked a day in their life or paid taxes, but they sure are Democrats all right.

joeyjojojunior says

Market rate is the rate at which jobs get filled. So, if the jobs aren't getting filled, it's not market rate

That's such a ridiculous point.

If there are 10 job openings for a plumber, and there are only 2 people available who will only become a plumber for $10,000 an hour, that doesn't mean $10,000 is the market rate. It's called a transitional supply shortage (basic economic concept). When horse buggy makers started losing business due to technology, it took time for those people to convert themselves to become car makers.

But this wasn't caused by technology changing, it was caused by leftist indoctrination and culture which slowly decreased the supply of tradesmen in the market.

Regardless at 86%, the data is indicating a supply shortage, not a wage deficiency.

If the response rate was under 20%, then your theory might have some legs. But at 86%, it's completely off in left field.

But, but, but... companies can't afford to pay workers more money

joeyjojojunior says

But, but, but... companies can't afford to pay workers more money

The God of Capitalism will dictate who will survive and who will perish. It's the survival of the fittest.