patrick.net

I know NOTHING about bitcoin. I know NOTHING about charts. If this isn't a bubble then someone please explain to me why it isn't. I'm not making a stand on one side or another, this just seems like a ridiculous chart.

Almost certainly is, but on a smaller scale the chart looked just as ridiculous in early 2017 before it corrected...then doubled!

So likely yes a bubble but when it bursts nobody knows.

Plus the people I'm starting to hear talk about bitcoin almost seals the deal for me that it's a bubble. Reminds me of people "getting into" real estate in 2004-06. There was no logical reason for some of those people to do it. When logic starts escaping larger amounts of people I see a bubble. Any way to short this? I'll search, but just wondering if anyone has a strategy if it's possible.

WookieMan says

Plus the people I'm starting to hear talk about bitcoin almost seals the deal for me that it's a bubble. Reminds me of people "getting into" real estate in 2004-06. There was no logical reason for some of those people to do it. When logic starts escaping larger amounts of people I see a bubble. Any way to short this? I'll search, but just wondering if anyone has a strategy if it's possible.

Bitcoin is 100% speculation. I'm sure you can short it, but whatever you do, it's a pure gamble.
Being in a bubble does not indicate the top. No one knows how much a bubble can expand.

Strategist says

Bitcoin is 100% speculation. I'm sure you can short it, but whatever you do, it's a pure gamble.
Being in a bubble does not indicate the top. No one knows how much a bubble can expand.

I understand. But from this time last year it increased roughly 10x in value, all on speculation as you mention. I'm just looking at that previous spike in 2013 and imagine it's going to look similar on the back end. I feel like it has a chance to drop back to 1,500. Again this is all based on gut and no knowledge of this market. This is not a prediction. I'm not taking any positions.

If I'm right, I will come back to pat myself on the back though. And wish I had the balls to mess around in this shit.

Wookie said. "Reminds me of people "getting into" real estate 04-06."

I hear you.

Just to play devils advocate I may be a bit older than you but there was a definite speculative element when I bought my place in early 2002.

Sane people I respected (and still respect now) were urging me to wait. I disagreed and bought thinking would see a 10% drop but I could withstand that, and didn't want to wait for it to bottom in 2004.

Lol! In hindsight, despite me being sure I bought near peak, I had no idea what irrational speculation meant as I saw things explode in 03-06.

Granted you don't buy bitcoin to use like you do a house, but by definition you have no idea how close or far you are from the top.

Good luck either way!

While I was able to ride out the storm, I was at a suckers age when I bought my first place - 2006 @ age 23. While that was 11 years ago, I remember the hype and feeling of real estate. Yes, bitcoin in not even remotely as popular as real estate, I'm still hearing waaaaayyy too many people talking about it like they know what it is or wanting to get into it.

Could it double from here? Sure. My admittedly unacknowledged opinion is there's going to be a pull back. I mean we sit here today and this thing has been a 10 bagger over the last 12 months. This is the purest form of speculation at this point. Those that have made theirs and if shorting is an option, are going to pull this down big time in my opinion. I'd love to hear from someone on the board that plays this game though, if there is one.

almost hit $6k today

The pop in value seems to be a result of a rumor that Amazon will soon accept bitcoin:

https://allthepics.net/image/KoNqw

Patrick says

The pop in value seems to be a result of a rumor that Amazon will soon accept bitcoin:

I wonder which trader started that rumor.

Newbie123 says

The fact that China tries to ban Bitcoin exchanges tells you something.

yes it tells me soon other countries will also ban this ponzi scheme and bitcoin will go back to being $0.05/each.

Newbie123 says

Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum will continue to go up. We are basically at the beginning.

I have no problem missing out on this. Too many people lost their assess in 2000-2001 on "technology." The technology is just different now. Call it a "crypto currency" and I guess that makes it real. A sucker is born every day and a lot of people are getting suckered into this pump and dump. I'll take my pre-tax dollars and dump to the tune of $18k into my 401k, BEFORE I take AFTER tax dollars and gamble at the shittiest Vegas casino. I'll just presume the crypto guys are all maximizing tax advantaged accounts prior to being idiots.

BorderPatrol says

Newbie123 says

The fact that China tries to ban Bitcoin exchanges tells you something.

yes it tells me soon other countries will also ban this ponzi scheme and bitcoin will go back to being $0.05/each.

The exchanges are an easy target, but I think it would be quite difficult to actually ban bitcoin itself. The whole thing is anonymous.

I just wish I had invented it

Soon there will be exchange traded and regulated crypto currency indices, futures and options.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-futures-options-to-appear-on-chicago-exchange

Bitcoin has the same support as the Dollar fiat currency,ignorance & nothing.

HEY YOU says

Bitcoin has the same support as the Dollar fiat currency,ignorance & nothing.

Hummm... yeah, but with dollars you can go to the grocery store and buy food. Plus a lot of powerful idiots are dependent on it being worth something.
And, oh, the US gov has a monopoly of money and the US gov is defended by a dozen aircraft carriers.

Today's lesson:

Money is a claim on an asset. One also says that money is backed by an asset.

Bitcoin is not backed by any asset at all. That is the problem. Also, bitcoin is anonymous only in some limited sense.

USD is backed by government bonds, which in turn can be viewed as a claim on the assets (land, buildings, etc) of the USG, as well as the future earnings (tax income) of the USG. The problem with USD is that more and more USD are created (in the form of reserve credits) when the FRB buys USG bonds. One cannot then help but think of USD as dropping in value as more units are created.

But like I said, bitcoin is a claim on nothing, backed by absolutely nothing. So it has no value.

By the way, zcash is supposed to be like bitcoin, but with better anonymity features.

There is also the interesting concept of the Hawala payment systems

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala#How_hawala_work

www.youtube.com/embed/40OuVyVGdIM

http://fortune.com/2017/11/01/bitcoin-6600-high-cme-futures/
I don't get this. I mean I get the idea of bitcoin, I just don't get this irrational pricing or at least that's the appearance from my untrained eye. The analogy to the housing crisis near the end of the article rings a little true to me though.

This just seems due for a massive pull back. But this is why I just dump money into indexed funds and don't try and time the market. It won't give me fuck you money, but I can at least retire with a good chunk.

WookieMan says

I just don't get this irrational pricing or at least that's the appearance from my untrained eye

"It's different this time"

The key element to a bubble, that leads to the crash, is that producers flood the market with supply in chase of the high prices, which in turn leads to over saturation that results in the crash.

Can bitcoin ramp up production?
Can competitors flood the market with other crypto currencies that are widely accepted , to flood the market?

If there can be Only One, and it’s Bitcoin, and demand will continue to increase outpacing supply, then the price will continue to increase.

This is also why words are important and we never had a Housing Bubble, we had a mortgage debt bubble

This is a Never Trump bubble I want no part of.

It’s just like the petro dollar, worth more because a lot of oil futures are tied up in it. Except replace oil with drugs and illegal contraband, guns, hitman contracts, and sex slaves.
The more that market uses Bitcoin, the more it’s worth!

I remember this lure I had when I was into fishing. It was called "the Super-Duper." When you reeled it in, the shiny part would catch the light ad the fish would go crazy and bite. Will, Bitcoin is like a Super=Duper and today I Bot 2 shares of GBTC at 900 and was elated to see it climb to 940 within hours, however ... at the end of the day it closed at 848 anyhoo,I lost $54. But tomorrow is another day. Jamie Diamonds daughter is still in winning territory and Jamie is wrong if he thinks the US Dollar is backed by anything. The USD used to be backed by gold. You could take your paper money and exchange $35 for one (1) ounce of gold. But no more. 1971
The Nixon shock was a series of economic measures undertaken by United States President Richard Nixon in 1971, the most significant of which was the unilateral cancellation of the direct international convertibility of the United States dollar to gold.
Nixon shock - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock
https://www.google.com/search?q=gbtc&rlz=1C1TSNP_enUS518US518&oq=gbtc&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0l5.8772j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

the dollar is backed by the biggest military in the world plus about 10K nukes.

steady price increases lately indicate strong money laundering activities going on.

when it gets big enough the bankers & gov will kill it along with other useless clones. there will a false flag, one that bigmall will disappointingly miss: terrorist cell funded by bitcoin.

Butbutbut you don’t understand the techs!!

Bump in the road.

Fantastic buying opportunity. Big discounts! This is a healthy time of consolidation before the next bull run.

www.youtube.com/embed/UF5KZwdfq5g

anon_3a1a3 says

Fantastic buying opportunity. Big discounts! This is a healthy time of consolidation before the next bull run.

Buy now or be priced out FOREVER!!!

anonymous says

"Bump in the road".

Seems to be a pretty big bump sport...perhaps hit a pothole or two as well on the way to the bump

When people see something good selling at 40% do they whine and complain? No, they whip out their wallets and load up! Stop whining, BAO, load up! Big bump = big discount = giant opportunity!!! Cash out your 401k and go all in!!!

Bitcoin price drops below $8,000 for first time since November 24

The volatile digital asset fell as low as $7,695.10, according to Coinbase data.

The volatile digital asset fell as low as $7,695.10 on Friday according to CoinDesk, marking the first time it has fallen below the $8,000 level since November 24. CoinDesk's bitcoin price index tracks prices from digital currency exchanges Bitstamp, Coinbase, itBit and Bitfinex.

Multiple virtual currencies have dropped significantly as regulators voiced concerns about them and worries grew over suggestions that the price of bitcoin has been propped up by popular exchange Bitfinex.

A number of critics have railed against cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, citing extreme price swings and worries of dubious activities associated with the crypto world, such as money laundering.

Notably, J. P. Morgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon called the world's largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, a "fraud," and said that he thought it would eventually "blow up."


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/02/bitcoin-price-drops-below-8000-for-first-time-since-nov-24.html

Japanese regulators raid Coincheck in wake of $530 million crypto heist.

TOKYO -- Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) on Friday morning carried out a raid on Coincheck, the beleaguered Tokyo cryptocurrency exchange from which hackers stole about 58 billion yen ($530 million) worth of the virtual currency NEM last week.

Some 260,000 Coincheck customers were victimized in the theft. The company has said it will reimburse them with yen, but questions have emerged about its ability to pay, as well as why it had currencies stored in a hot wallet connected to the internet and thus potentially vulnerable to thieves.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/02/japanese-regulators-raid-coincheck-in-wake-of-crypto-heist.html

Looking at the coindesk charts I see 50% drop from December high for bitcoin, 25% for ethereum.

NuttBoxer says

Looking at the coindesk charts I see 50% drop from December high for bitcoin, 25% for ethereum.

What happens to the guys who bought them on their credit cards at 20%+ interest rates?

Here's another article - https://gizmodo.com/bitcoin-fell-off-a-cliff-and-no-one-knows-how-far-it-is-1822659737

Quote from the article: A visit to his accountant prompted one redditor to exclaim, “Fuck taxes man. This is so fucked it’s like I didn’t earn anything.” And it’s not just the federal government that wants its taxes; states are getting in on it, too.

This is your bitcoin investor ladies and gentleman. Well just gentleman I suppose here.

NuttBoxer says

Looking at the coindesk charts I see 50% drop from December high for bitcoin, 25% for ethereum.

Yuuuge, discount. Yuuuge!

Ha! This is how I see almost to a T.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/lQegMA_kY9Y