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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
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2018 May 14, 8:51am 77,214 views 699 comments
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430
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 1:31pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 1:31pm
There's no Blue Wave, Dems might not even take the House.
Republicans are too energized; Wave Elections usually require that one party's base be demoralized and angry with their own party. Trump is YUGE with Republicans and he's been absolutely Hi NRG pumping up voters in key districts with rallies.
Obama can barely get a few hundred despite AFSCME pushing members to go.
Republicans are too energized; Wave Elections usually require that one party's base be demoralized and angry with their own party. Trump is YUGE with Republicans and he's been absolutely Hi NRG pumping up voters in key districts with rallies.
Obama can barely get a few hundred despite AFSCME pushing members to go.
431
krc
2018 Oct 30, 2:21pm
A political party that lets the opposition outspend it 2:1 will lose. I was thinking Rep would hold the house - but not so sure anymore. There is too much money getting spent and clearly the Rep party thinks they are going to lose so they are not investing. I don't see local Republicans out canvassing or doing the grass roots stuff to win. The Dems just need to make the blue states more blue to control the house. Then Trump will be drowned in investigations and so forth....
432
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 2:33pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 2:33pm
krc says
JUST got a call from the Broward GOP literally an hour ago telling me to go vote. I just got my ballot today.
My mother told me was visited by door knocking GOP volunteers in her Senior Community the other day; she voted long ago.
There's a ground game in FL, at least. Even in Communist Teacher Driven Broward.
I don't see local Republicans out canvassing or doing the grass roots stuff to win.
JUST got a call from the Broward GOP literally an hour ago telling me to go vote. I just got my ballot today.
My mother told me was visited by door knocking GOP volunteers in her Senior Community the other day; she voted long ago.
There's a ground game in FL, at least. Even in Communist Teacher Driven Broward.
433
curious2
2018 Oct 30, 2:56pm
curious2
2018 Oct 30, 2:56pm
krc says
Democrats outspent Republicans 2:1 in 2016, and Republicans won both houses of Congress and the White House, and retained control of most states at the state level. Democrats have never recovered from their losses in 2010, when they forced through Obamneycare just in time for the midterms and the 2010 census reapportionment. I have never seen a more obviously self-defeating party. It is almost as if they are controlled by the people who finance the Republicans. Oh wait, they are.
A political party that lets the opposition outspend it 2:1 will lose.
Democrats outspent Republicans 2:1 in 2016, and Republicans won both houses of Congress and the White House, and retained control of most states at the state level. Democrats have never recovered from their losses in 2010, when they forced through Obamneycare just in time for the midterms and the 2010 census reapportionment. I have never seen a more obviously self-defeating party. It is almost as if they are controlled by the people who finance the Republicans. Oh wait, they are.
434
Goran_K
2018 Oct 30, 3:09pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 30, 3:09pm
krc says
I wouldn't be so sure about the house.
The early voting numbers don't look good for the DNC at all in the battleground states.
Now early voting numbers aren't the entire picture but they do indicate 3 crucial things:
1. Voter Enthusiasm.
2. Where money should be spent.
3. Potential turn out.
So far it looks like the GOP is far more fired up in the key battleground states than the DNC base and the DNC will be forced to spend more money just to keep it close in those races.
A political party that lets the opposition outspend it 2:1 will lose. I was thinking Rep would hold the house - but not so sure anymore. There is too much money getting spent and clearly the Rep party thinks they are going to lose so they are not investing. I don't see local Republicans out canvassing or doing the grass roots stuff to win. The Dems just need to make the blue states more blue to control the house. Then Trump will be drowned in investigations and so forth....
I wouldn't be so sure about the house.
The early voting numbers don't look good for the DNC at all in the battleground states.
Now early voting numbers aren't the entire picture but they do indicate 3 crucial things:
1. Voter Enthusiasm.
2. Where money should be spent.
3. Potential turn out.
So far it looks like the GOP is far more fired up in the key battleground states than the DNC base and the DNC will be forced to spend more money just to keep it close in those races.
435
krc
2018 Oct 30, 3:37pm
There are 6 seats in CA that have a solid potential ( based on polling and $ spent) to flip REP to DEM.
There is one in WA.
But we shall see. My point is the battlegrounds don't really matter because there are so many toss-ups in traditionally Blue states that they just have to win those.
It is a good plan: focus on where you are strongest.
There is one in WA.
But we shall see. My point is the battlegrounds don't really matter because there are so many toss-ups in traditionally Blue states that they just have to win those.
It is a good plan: focus on where you are strongest.
436
Goran_K
2018 Oct 30, 3:52pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 30, 3:52pm
krc says
Ha no.
Between the Gas Tax, and Feinstein, I don't see those seats flipping. In fact the one California senate seat that was up for grabs this year in a special election actually flipped GOP ending the Democrat super majority in California (that was just 4 months ago). I know, different kind of race, but it shows just how unpopular the gas tax was, and Democrats hold the entirety of the blame for it in California.
There are 6 seats in CA that have a solid potential
Ha no.
Between the Gas Tax, and Feinstein, I don't see those seats flipping. In fact the one California senate seat that was up for grabs this year in a special election actually flipped GOP ending the Democrat super majority in California (that was just 4 months ago). I know, different kind of race, but it shows just how unpopular the gas tax was, and Democrats hold the entirety of the blame for it in California.
437
tatupu70
2018 Oct 30, 4:36pm
tatupu70
2018 Oct 30, 4:36pm
lol @ all the Trump supporters celebrating already and cherry picking data to try to convince themselves that everything is OK.
I can't wait until next week.
I can't wait until next week.
439
Goran_K
2018 Oct 30, 4:46pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 30, 4:46pm
Hey gents, not the place to be discussing Patrick's flag policies.
Please go here:
http://patrick.net/post/1277846
Please go here:
http://patrick.net/post/1277846
444
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 4:55pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 4:55pm
HappyGilmore says
Complain in the appropriate thread.
So asking if pointing out hypocrisy is against the rules is itself against the rules?
Complain in the appropriate thread.
447
socal2
2018 Oct 30, 5:20pm
krc says
I'm in one of those districts with Darrell Issa's open seat. The Democrat Levin is beating Harkey by 10+ points in the polls.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ca/california_49th_district_harkey_vs_levin-6448.html
In terms of yard signs, mailers and tv commercials - Levin must be outspending Harkey 10 to 1. I barely see anything positive for Harkey.
Just what California needs..........another environmental lawyer and Pelosi zombie.
There are 6 seats in CA that have a solid potential ( based on polling and $ spent) to flip REP to DEM.
I'm in one of those districts with Darrell Issa's open seat. The Democrat Levin is beating Harkey by 10+ points in the polls.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ca/california_49th_district_harkey_vs_levin-6448.html
In terms of yard signs, mailers and tv commercials - Levin must be outspending Harkey 10 to 1. I barely see anything positive for Harkey.
Just what California needs..........another environmental lawyer and Pelosi zombie.
449
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 7:11pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 7:11pm
Nevada has been going apeshit registering Illegals. Good Old Boy Developers in Las Vegas are busing their illegal employees to the poling stations in droves.
450
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 30, 7:26pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
This is the biggest indicator that Republicans know they are going to lose--when they start bringing up the illegal voting nonsense..
The excuses are coming out already.
Nevada has been going apeshit registering Illegals. Good Old Boy Developers in Las Vegas are busing their illegal employees to the poling stations in droves.
This is the biggest indicator that Republicans know they are going to lose--when they start bringing up the illegal voting nonsense..
The excuses are coming out already.
451
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 30, 7:27pm
TrumpingTits says
Cherry picking any poll that seems to be good news. The overall picture is worsening for Reps in the House.
What data are they cherry picking? How the Blue Wave has already lost any chance of retaking the Senate and even Democrats are admitting to that?
Cherry picking any poll that seems to be good news. The overall picture is worsening for Reps in the House.
452
socal2
2018 Oct 30, 7:38pm
HappyGilmore says
What will be the Democrat's excuse if they fail to take the Senate and the Republicans even pick up a few Senate seats?
The excuses are coming out already.
What will be the Democrat's excuse if they fail to take the Senate and the Republicans even pick up a few Senate seats?
453
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 30, 7:39pm
socal2 says
Why would they need an excuse?
What will be the Democrat's excuse if they fail to take the Senate and the Republicans even pick up a few Senate seats?
Why would they need an excuse?
454
krc
2018 Oct 30, 7:53pm
There is no excuse. Dems never had a chance in the senate. I don't think anyone said otherwise.
455
socal2
2018 Oct 30, 7:56pm
krc says
Huh - then what the hell is all this Blue Wave talk about for the last year?
We are to believe that Trump and Republican are so toxic and unpopular - but Republicans pick up Senate seats?
There is no excuse. Dems never had a chance in the senate. I don't think anyone said otherwise.
Huh - then what the hell is all this Blue Wave talk about for the last year?
We are to believe that Trump and Republican are so toxic and unpopular - but Republicans pick up Senate seats?
456
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 8:21pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 30, 8:21pm
HappyGilmore says
Yeah, all this Early Voting has me really worried.
All the Republicans seem to be staying home.
That blue wave in swing-state Florida has Republicans up 2% in Early/Mail-in Voting.
TOTAL 2014 Mid Terms
With A Week to Go, 2018 Mid Terms
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Note this only tells us how many people got ballots or early voted by registered party, not who people voted for. And the panhandle, heavily Red with Evangelicals and some military bases, is mostly delayed because of the Hurricane.
This is the biggest indicator that Republicans know they are going to lose--when they start bringing up the illegal voting nonsense..
Yeah, all this Early Voting has me really worried.
All the Republicans seem to be staying home.
That blue wave in swing-state Florida has Republicans up 2% in Early/Mail-in Voting.
TOTAL 2014 Mid Terms
With A Week to Go, 2018 Mid Terms
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Note this only tells us how many people got ballots or early voted by registered party, not who people voted for. And the panhandle, heavily Red with Evangelicals and some military bases, is mostly delayed because of the Hurricane.
457
Shaman
2018 Oct 30, 9:09pm
Shaman
2018 Oct 30, 9:09pm
socal2 says
Don’t underestimate the power of the gas tax to get Californians to vote R. Last time the Democrats passed a large gas tax and car registration tax, we recalled the Democrat governor. California hates too much gas tax. A LOT of people who usually sit on the sidelines are getting out to vote specifically to vote down the gas tax. If you think they are going to be kind to the Democrats on the ballot after they cast their vote for Prop 6, you’ve been partaking in too much legal herb.
I'm in one of those districts with Darrell Issa's open seat. The Democrat Levin is beating Harkey by 10+ points in the polls.
Don’t underestimate the power of the gas tax to get Californians to vote R. Last time the Democrats passed a large gas tax and car registration tax, we recalled the Democrat governor. California hates too much gas tax. A LOT of people who usually sit on the sidelines are getting out to vote specifically to vote down the gas tax. If you think they are going to be kind to the Democrats on the ballot after they cast their vote for Prop 6, you’ve been partaking in too much legal herb.
458
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 5:14pm
Early voting up among younger voters and women.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/midterms-2018-early-voting-young-100419572.html
Having said that--I think analyzing early voting is a fool's exercise. Early voting data is already reflected in polls and has very little predictive value.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/midterms-2018-early-voting-young-100419572.html
Having said that--I think analyzing early voting is a fool's exercise. Early voting data is already reflected in polls and has very little predictive value.
459
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:19pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:19pm
Nate Silver is really smoking the funny stuff.
There is very little polling for most House races, and usually godawful small sample sizes. National Polls are totally useless in these district races.
There is very little polling for most House races, and usually godawful small sample sizes. National Polls are totally useless in these district races.
460
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 6:22pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
lol--this is accounted for with his probabilities.
It's funny how the Trump supporters believe Nate when he talks about the Senate, but all of the sudden he's a quack when he talks about the House.
btw-did you see the generic ballot poll with Dems +17?
Nate Silver is really smoking the funny stuff.
There is very little polling for most House races, and usually godawful small sample sizes. National Polls are totally useless in these district races.
lol--this is accounted for with his probabilities.
It's funny how the Trump supporters believe Nate when he talks about the Senate, but all of the sudden he's a quack when he talks about the House.
btw-did you see the generic ballot poll with Dems +17?
461
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:27pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:27pm
When have I ever believed Nate?
The Senate is just from the polling. Senate races are well polled. Most house races, including some of the alleged toss ups, have very infrequent, and/or miniscule sample sizes, and/or by no-name polling agencies, and/or very dated polls.
Like I said, is Generic Poll +17 D gonna flip WV Blue? Probably not.
The Senate is just from the polling. Senate races are well polled. Most house races, including some of the alleged toss ups, have very infrequent, and/or miniscule sample sizes, and/or by no-name polling agencies, and/or very dated polls.
Like I said, is Generic Poll +17 D gonna flip WV Blue? Probably not.
462
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 6:34pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
It will have 1 blue Senator.
Some Senate races are polled more than others. Same with the House.
Races will fewer polls have larger uncertainty. It's not rocket science. But pros can get a decent idea just from the makeup of the district even without polling. Obviously the candidate strength is tougher to measure without the polling, though.
Like I said, is Generic Poll +17 D gonna flip WV Blue? Probably not.
It will have 1 blue Senator.
Some Senate races are polled more than others. Same with the House.
Races will fewer polls have larger uncertainty. It's not rocket science. But pros can get a decent idea just from the makeup of the district even without polling. Obviously the candidate strength is tougher to measure without the polling, though.
463
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:45pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:45pm
Generic Polling is meaningless, it doesn't matter if more Libbies in Brooklyn or Downtown LA come out, 30% higher. They still are all voting in the same heavily, permablue district.
And I don't see any +17D. It's 7.5D, and much of that is your urban, already Deep Blue, districts.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
And I don't see any +17D. It's 7.5D, and much of that is your urban, already Deep Blue, districts.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
464
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 6:49pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot
The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.
Generic Polling is meaningless, it doesn't matter if more Libbies in Brooklyn or Downtown LA come out, 30% higher. They still are all voting in the same heavily, permablue district.
And I don't see any +17D. It's 7.5D, and much of that is your urban, already Deep Blue, districts.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot
The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.
465
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 7:02pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 7:02pm
HappyGilmore says
Real Clear's average of polls has it at 7.5D. Using the Trump Filter, since working class HS Grads are less able sit at desks or work in home offices taking a half hour phone survey, but are too busy welding and roofing, and the Trump Shame Effect, I'd say it's +2.5D. Across the whole country.
I expect the Dems to flip a few seats. But more Amanda Marcottes coming out in an already Deep Dark Blue Brooklyn District, doesn't mean you'll see the same effect or to the same extent in PA-17.
I'm watching Florida closely and it seems there is no enthusiasm gap between R's and D's right now. It's a state that logs which registered Voters mailed or voted early, not their vote choices, and we know that R's are performing at par, which is ahead in mail-ins, and very slightly behind in early voting, with a ~60k+ advantage.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot
Real Clear's average of polls has it at 7.5D. Using the Trump Filter, since working class HS Grads are less able sit at desks or work in home offices taking a half hour phone survey, but are too busy welding and roofing, and the Trump Shame Effect, I'd say it's +2.5D. Across the whole country.
I expect the Dems to flip a few seats. But more Amanda Marcottes coming out in an already Deep Dark Blue Brooklyn District, doesn't mean you'll see the same effect or to the same extent in PA-17.
I'm watching Florida closely and it seems there is no enthusiasm gap between R's and D's right now. It's a state that logs which registered Voters mailed or voted early, not their vote choices, and we know that R's are performing at par, which is ahead in mail-ins, and very slightly behind in early voting, with a ~60k+ advantage.
466
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 7:13pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Yep, but the +17 is very recent.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
lol @ the Trump filter. It's no use going over the facts of polling again. Trump supporters can and do believe whatever they want regardless of what the data says.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
We shall see.
Real Clear's average of polls has it at 7.5D.
Yep, but the +17 is very recent.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Using the Trump Filter, since working class HS Grads are less able sit at desks or work in home offices taking a half hour phone survey, but are too busy welding and roofing, and the Trump Shame Effect, I'd say it's +2.5D. Across the whole countr
lol @ the Trump filter. It's no use going over the facts of polling again. Trump supporters can and do believe whatever they want regardless of what the data says.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
I expect the Dems to flip a few seats. But more Amanda Marcottes coming out in an already Deep Dark Blue Brooklyn District, doesn't mean you'll see the same effect or to the same extent in PA-17.
We shall see.
468
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:26pm
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:26pm
HappyGilmore says
Lol, this is as stupid as a statement gets. NS's comments are irrelevant, they have no sway in either direction (or they shouldnt).
It's funny how the Trump supporters believe Nate when he talks about the Senate,
Lol, this is as stupid as a statement gets. NS's comments are irrelevant, they have no sway in either direction (or they shouldnt).
469
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:31pm
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:31pm
HappyGilmore says
Polls, in general, are best at showing change rather than absolute levels of support.
This is far more relevant when the models change, like they did w Trump. The rules are all different. It would be difficult to impossible to set up anyaccurate poll in this environment. Add in the fact that these polls are basically just propaganda to show how unpopular wrong thinkers are, and these polls are total garbage.
The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.
Polls, in general, are best at showing change rather than absolute levels of support.
This is far more relevant when the models change, like they did w Trump. The rules are all different. It would be difficult to impossible to set up anyaccurate poll in this environment. Add in the fact that these polls are basically just propaganda to show how unpopular wrong thinkers are, and these polls are total garbage.
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Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.