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I don't see local Republicans out canvassing or doing the grass roots stuff to win.
A political party that lets the opposition outspend it 2:1 will lose.
A political party that lets the opposition outspend it 2:1 will lose. I was thinking Rep would hold the house - but not so sure anymore. There is too much money getting spent and clearly the Rep party thinks they are going to lose so they are not investing. I don't see local Republicans out canvassing or doing the grass roots stuff to win. The Dems just need to make the blue states more blue to control the house. Then Trump will be drowned in investigations and so forth....
There are 6 seats in CA that have a solid potential
So asking if pointing out hypocrisy is against the rules is itself against the rules?
There are 6 seats in CA that have a solid potential ( based on polling and $ spent) to flip REP to DEM.
Nevada has been going apeshit registering Illegals. Good Old Boy Developers in Las Vegas are busing their illegal employees to the poling stations in droves.
What data are they cherry picking? How the Blue Wave has already lost any chance of retaking the Senate and even Democrats are admitting to that?
The excuses are coming out already.
What will be the Democrat's excuse if they fail to take the Senate and the Republicans even pick up a few Senate seats?
There is no excuse. Dems never had a chance in the senate. I don't think anyone said otherwise.
This is the biggest indicator that Republicans know they are going to lose--when they start bringing up the illegal voting nonsense..
I'm in one of those districts with Darrell Issa's open seat. The Democrat Levin is beating Harkey by 10+ points in the polls.
Nate Silver is really smoking the funny stuff.
There is very little polling for most House races, and usually godawful small sample sizes. National Polls are totally useless in these district races.
Like I said, is Generic Poll +17 D gonna flip WV Blue? Probably not.
Generic Polling is meaningless, it doesn't matter if more Libbies in Brooklyn or Downtown LA come out, 30% higher. They still are all voting in the same heavily, permablue district.
And I don't see any +17D. It's 7.5D, and much of that is your urban, already Deep Blue, districts.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot
Real Clear's average of polls has it at 7.5D.
Using the Trump Filter, since working class HS Grads are less able sit at desks or work in home offices taking a half hour phone survey, but are too busy welding and roofing, and the Trump Shame Effect, I'd say it's +2.5D. Across the whole countr
I expect the Dems to flip a few seats. But more Amanda Marcottes coming out in an already Deep Dark Blue Brooklyn District, doesn't mean you'll see the same effect or to the same extent in PA-17.
It's funny how the Trump supporters believe Nate when he talks about the Senate,
The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.
Lol, this is as stupid as a statement gets. NS's comments are irrelevant, they have no sway in either direction (or they shouldnt).
Polls, in general, are best at showing change rather than absolute levels of support.
This is far more relevant when the models change, like they did w Trump. The rules are all different. It would be difficult to impossible to set up anyaccurate poll in this environment. Add in the fact that these polls are basically just propaganda to show how unpopular wrong thinkers are, and these polls are total garbage.
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Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.