There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
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2018 May 14, 8:51am 76,997 views 699 comments
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459
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:19pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:19pm
Nate Silver is really smoking the funny stuff.
There is very little polling for most House races, and usually godawful small sample sizes. National Polls are totally useless in these district races.
There is very little polling for most House races, and usually godawful small sample sizes. National Polls are totally useless in these district races.
460
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 6:22pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
lol--this is accounted for with his probabilities.
It's funny how the Trump supporters believe Nate when he talks about the Senate, but all of the sudden he's a quack when he talks about the House.
btw-did you see the generic ballot poll with Dems +17?
Nate Silver is really smoking the funny stuff.
There is very little polling for most House races, and usually godawful small sample sizes. National Polls are totally useless in these district races.
lol--this is accounted for with his probabilities.
It's funny how the Trump supporters believe Nate when he talks about the Senate, but all of the sudden he's a quack when he talks about the House.
btw-did you see the generic ballot poll with Dems +17?
461
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:27pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:27pm
When have I ever believed Nate?
The Senate is just from the polling. Senate races are well polled. Most house races, including some of the alleged toss ups, have very infrequent, and/or miniscule sample sizes, and/or by no-name polling agencies, and/or very dated polls.
Like I said, is Generic Poll +17 D gonna flip WV Blue? Probably not.
The Senate is just from the polling. Senate races are well polled. Most house races, including some of the alleged toss ups, have very infrequent, and/or miniscule sample sizes, and/or by no-name polling agencies, and/or very dated polls.
Like I said, is Generic Poll +17 D gonna flip WV Blue? Probably not.
462
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 6:34pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
It will have 1 blue Senator.
Some Senate races are polled more than others. Same with the House.
Races will fewer polls have larger uncertainty. It's not rocket science. But pros can get a decent idea just from the makeup of the district even without polling. Obviously the candidate strength is tougher to measure without the polling, though.
Like I said, is Generic Poll +17 D gonna flip WV Blue? Probably not.
It will have 1 blue Senator.
Some Senate races are polled more than others. Same with the House.
Races will fewer polls have larger uncertainty. It's not rocket science. But pros can get a decent idea just from the makeup of the district even without polling. Obviously the candidate strength is tougher to measure without the polling, though.
463
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:45pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 6:45pm
Generic Polling is meaningless, it doesn't matter if more Libbies in Brooklyn or Downtown LA come out, 30% higher. They still are all voting in the same heavily, permablue district.
And I don't see any +17D. It's 7.5D, and much of that is your urban, already Deep Blue, districts.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
And I don't see any +17D. It's 7.5D, and much of that is your urban, already Deep Blue, districts.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
464
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 6:49pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot
The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.
Generic Polling is meaningless, it doesn't matter if more Libbies in Brooklyn or Downtown LA come out, 30% higher. They still are all voting in the same heavily, permablue district.
And I don't see any +17D. It's 7.5D, and much of that is your urban, already Deep Blue, districts.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot
The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.
465
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 7:02pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 7:02pm
HappyGilmore says
Real Clear's average of polls has it at 7.5D. Using the Trump Filter, since working class HS Grads are less able sit at desks or work in home offices taking a half hour phone survey, but are too busy welding and roofing, and the Trump Shame Effect, I'd say it's +2.5D. Across the whole country.
I expect the Dems to flip a few seats. But more Amanda Marcottes coming out in an already Deep Dark Blue Brooklyn District, doesn't mean you'll see the same effect or to the same extent in PA-17.
I'm watching Florida closely and it seems there is no enthusiasm gap between R's and D's right now. It's a state that logs which registered Voters mailed or voted early, not their vote choices, and we know that R's are performing at par, which is ahead in mail-ins, and very slightly behind in early voting, with a ~60k+ advantage.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot
Real Clear's average of polls has it at 7.5D. Using the Trump Filter, since working class HS Grads are less able sit at desks or work in home offices taking a half hour phone survey, but are too busy welding and roofing, and the Trump Shame Effect, I'd say it's +2.5D. Across the whole country.
I expect the Dems to flip a few seats. But more Amanda Marcottes coming out in an already Deep Dark Blue Brooklyn District, doesn't mean you'll see the same effect or to the same extent in PA-17.
I'm watching Florida closely and it seems there is no enthusiasm gap between R's and D's right now. It's a state that logs which registered Voters mailed or voted early, not their vote choices, and we know that R's are performing at par, which is ahead in mail-ins, and very slightly behind in early voting, with a ~60k+ advantage.
466
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 7:13pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Yep, but the +17 is very recent.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
lol @ the Trump filter. It's no use going over the facts of polling again. Trump supporters can and do believe whatever they want regardless of what the data says.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
We shall see.
Real Clear's average of polls has it at 7.5D.
Yep, but the +17 is very recent.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Using the Trump Filter, since working class HS Grads are less able sit at desks or work in home offices taking a half hour phone survey, but are too busy welding and roofing, and the Trump Shame Effect, I'd say it's +2.5D. Across the whole countr
lol @ the Trump filter. It's no use going over the facts of polling again. Trump supporters can and do believe whatever they want regardless of what the data says.
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
I expect the Dems to flip a few seats. But more Amanda Marcottes coming out in an already Deep Dark Blue Brooklyn District, doesn't mean you'll see the same effect or to the same extent in PA-17.
We shall see.
468
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:26pm
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:26pm
HappyGilmore says
Lol, this is as stupid as a statement gets. NS's comments are irrelevant, they have no sway in either direction (or they shouldnt).
It's funny how the Trump supporters believe Nate when he talks about the Senate,
Lol, this is as stupid as a statement gets. NS's comments are irrelevant, they have no sway in either direction (or they shouldnt).
469
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:31pm
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:31pm
HappyGilmore says
Polls, in general, are best at showing change rather than absolute levels of support.
This is far more relevant when the models change, like they did w Trump. The rules are all different. It would be difficult to impossible to set up anyaccurate poll in this environment. Add in the fact that these polls are basically just propaganda to show how unpopular wrong thinkers are, and these polls are total garbage.
The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.
Polls, in general, are best at showing change rather than absolute levels of support.
This is far more relevant when the models change, like they did w Trump. The rules are all different. It would be difficult to impossible to set up anyaccurate poll in this environment. Add in the fact that these polls are basically just propaganda to show how unpopular wrong thinkers are, and these polls are total garbage.
470
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 7:32pm
CBOEtrader says
Perhaps the problem is a lack of understanding of the meaning. I made no reference to his "sway". Only the hypocrisy of the Trump supporters.
But far more stupid is the post above CBOEs. How many times will fake craiglist posting be believed?
I wish I had Trump's email list--there cannot be a better list of people to send email scams to....
Lol, this is as stupid as a statement gets. NS's comments are irrelevant, they have no sway in either direction (or they shouldnt).
Perhaps the problem is a lack of understanding of the meaning. I made no reference to his "sway". Only the hypocrisy of the Trump supporters.
But far more stupid is the post above CBOEs. How many times will fake craiglist posting be believed?
I wish I had Trump's email list--there cannot be a better list of people to send email scams to....
471
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 7:33pm
CBOEtrader says
Nope--that's not really true.
CBOEtrader says
Models didn't change. Late deciders broke for Trump. It was well within normal polling error.
Polls, in general, are best at showing change rather than absolute levels of support.
Nope--that's not really true.
CBOEtrader says
This is far more relevant when the models change, like they did w Trump. The rules are all different. It would be difficult to impossible to set up anyaccurate poll in this environment. Add in the fact that these polls are basically just propaganda to show how unpopular wrong thinkers are, and these polls are total garbage.
Models didn't change. Late deciders broke for Trump. It was well within normal polling error.
474
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:38pm
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:38pm
HappyGilmore says
No you are missing my boorish critique. You suggest it is hypocrisy to agree w nate on some predictions and not agree on others. This is as illogical as an observation gets.
Perhaps the problem is a lack of understanding of the meaning.
No you are missing my boorish critique. You suggest it is hypocrisy to agree w nate on some predictions and not agree on others. This is as illogical as an observation gets.
475
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 7:40pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 7:40pm
HappyGilmore says
Wait, is Hillary President?
It was mathematically impossible for her to lose --- until she did.
lol @ the Trump filter. It's no use going over the facts of polling again. Trump supporters can and do believe whatever they want regardless of what the data says.
Wait, is Hillary President?
It was mathematically impossible for her to lose --- until she did.
476
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 7:41pm
CBOEtrader says
It is hypocrisy. Nate isn't offering his opinion, he has created a model to analyze many factors (including polling) to offer predictions in the form of probabilities.
Someone who touts the model when it says what they want it to say but then calls the model nonsense when it says the opposite of what they want is absolutely hypocrisy.
No you are missing boorish critique. You suggest it is hypocrisy to agree w nate on some predictions and not agree on others. This is as illogical as an observation gets.
It is hypocrisy. Nate isn't offering his opinion, he has created a model to analyze many factors (including polling) to offer predictions in the form of probabilities.
Someone who touts the model when it says what they want it to say but then calls the model nonsense when it says the opposite of what they want is absolutely hypocrisy.
478
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 7:44pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 7:44pm
HappyGilmore says
No it does not. Whether it's D+20 or R+20, New York's 16th and California's 34th is gonna go Deep Blue and Texas's 11th and Georgia's 9th is gonna be Deep Red.
If there's 20% more turnout in those districts, suddenly, nothing changes.
The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.
No it does not. Whether it's D+20 or R+20, New York's 16th and California's 34th is gonna go Deep Blue and Texas's 11th and Georgia's 9th is gonna be Deep Red.
If there's 20% more turnout in those districts, suddenly, nothing changes.
480
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:46pm
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:46pm
HappyGilmore says
THE MODEL will have different inputs in different situations. Each variable will require some level of human judgement.
Like I said, NS is irrelevant more so than just being wrong.
Someone who touts the model when it says what they want it to say but then calls the model nonsense when it says the opposite of what they want is absolutely hypocrisy.
THE MODEL will have different inputs in different situations. Each variable will require some level of human judgement.
Like I said, NS is irrelevant more so than just being wrong.
481
HappyGilmore
2018 Oct 31, 7:51pm
CBOEtrader says
lol--538 is the gold standard of political analysis.
There really isn't anything else close.
Like I said, NS is irrelevant more so than just being wrong.
lol--538 is the gold standard of political analysis.
There really isn't anything else close.
482
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:53pm
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 31, 7:53pm
HappyGilmore says
Lol, only to people who want to believe in biased fantasies.
538 is a joke to people who think critically.
lol--538 is the gold standard of political analysis.
Lol, only to people who want to believe in biased fantasies.
538 is a joke to people who think critically.
483
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 8:19pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 8:19pm
Anybody remember Handel is Georgia's 6th? And all the money and time Hollywood, the Media, and Big Tech was dumped into it?
"Neck and Neck" pollsters crowed. Some gave had Handel down by 10pts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/20/new-forecast-only-a-55-chance-that-jon-ossoff-wins-georgias-house-special-election/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3c73d2103783
Hell some said Ossoff wasn't even going to have to go to runoff elections, getting more than 50% in the first round.
Handel won by 3.5 pts.
"Neck and Neck" pollsters crowed. Some gave had Handel down by 10pts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/20/new-forecast-only-a-55-chance-that-jon-ossoff-wins-georgias-house-special-election/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3c73d2103783
Hell some said Ossoff wasn't even going to have to go to runoff elections, getting more than 50% in the first round.
Handel won by 3.5 pts.
484
HeadSet
2018 Oct 31, 8:22pm
HeadSet
2018 Oct 31, 8:22pm
CBOEtrader says
Like I said, NS is irrelevant more so than just being wrong.
That is true if you think the purpose of NS is to make accurate predictions. If accuracy was the real goal, NS would not be taken seriously at all.
NS purpose is to give info that certain people want to hear, specifically fund raisers. Much easier to raise campaign funds for a likely winner than to raise campaign funds for a likely loser. Also, easier to get donations in general for the likely winner since many donors want to be investing in the winning side. Tell them what they want to hear all along, then claim the "probability" and "margin of error" excuses when outright wrong.
Like I said, NS is irrelevant more so than just being wrong.
That is true if you think the purpose of NS is to make accurate predictions. If accuracy was the real goal, NS would not be taken seriously at all.
NS purpose is to give info that certain people want to hear, specifically fund raisers. Much easier to raise campaign funds for a likely winner than to raise campaign funds for a likely loser. Also, easier to get donations in general for the likely winner since many donors want to be investing in the winning side. Tell them what they want to hear all along, then claim the "probability" and "margin of error" excuses when outright wrong.
485
MrMagic
2018 Oct 31, 8:39pm
MrMagic
2018 Oct 31, 8:39pm
HappyGilmore says
and for the WIN, Nate's Electoral College prediction:
and what the Official Electoral College Results were:
Hey, Tatty/JoeyJoey/Happy/, any question?
lol--538 is the gold standard of political analysis.
There really isn't anything else close.
and for the WIN, Nate's Electoral College prediction:
and what the Official Electoral College Results were:
Hey, Tatty/JoeyJoey/Happy/, any question?
486
MrMagic
2018 Oct 31, 8:54pm
MrMagic
2018 Oct 31, 8:54pm
HappyGilmore says
Why You Should Never, Ever Listen To Nate Silver.
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/why-you-should-never-ever-listen-to-nate-silver
A whole list of WRONG predictions and statements by Nate at that link, way to many to copy and paste. Hey Tatty/Joey/Happy.... enjoy!!
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying
https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/nate-silvers-very-very-wrong-predictions-about-donald-t-1788583912
The terrifying uncertainty at the heart of FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasts
The myth of the election prediction wizard is no more.
https://www.vox.com/2018/10/24/18009356/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-2018-forecast-analysis
Nate Silver Blew It Bigly on the Election – Can His Brand Recover?
“Nate was arrogant. His numbers were all over the place. The title of ‘guru’ is now gone,”
https://www.thewrap.com/nate-silver-blew-it-bigly-on-the-election-can-his-brand-recover/
lol--538 is the gold standard of political analysis.
There really isn't anything else close.
Why You Should Never, Ever Listen To Nate Silver.
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/why-you-should-never-ever-listen-to-nate-silver
A whole list of WRONG predictions and statements by Nate at that link, way to many to copy and paste. Hey Tatty/Joey/Happy.... enjoy!!
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying
https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/nate-silvers-very-very-wrong-predictions-about-donald-t-1788583912
The terrifying uncertainty at the heart of FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasts
The myth of the election prediction wizard is no more.
https://www.vox.com/2018/10/24/18009356/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-2018-forecast-analysis
Nate Silver Blew It Bigly on the Election – Can His Brand Recover?
“Nate was arrogant. His numbers were all over the place. The title of ‘guru’ is now gone,”
https://www.thewrap.com/nate-silver-blew-it-bigly-on-the-election-can-his-brand-recover/
487
Goran_K
2018 Oct 31, 8:54pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 31, 8:54pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
I remember.
I remember certain posters in this thread talking lots of shit about how Ossof was going to win big.
Maybe they will eat their crow but I doubt it.
Anybody remember Handel is Georgia's 6th? And all the money and time Hollywood, the Media, and Big Tech was dumped into it?
"Neck and Neck" pollsters crowed. Some gave had Handel down by 10pts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/20/new-forecast-only-a-55-chance-that-jon-ossoff-wins-georgias-house-special-election/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3c73d2103783
Hell some said Ossoff wasn't even going to have to go to runoff elections, getting more than 50% in the first round.
Handel won by 3.5 pts.
I remember.
I remember certain posters in this thread talking lots of shit about how Ossof was going to win big.
Maybe they will eat their crow but I doubt it.
488
Shaman
2018 Oct 31, 8:56pm
Shaman
2018 Oct 31, 8:56pm
CBOEtrader says
As politically motivated as I am, I have no time for polls. They always take way too long to complete, and I’m suspicious of the way the questions are worded as well as what they’ll do with the information.
In this age of real consequences for stated political opinions, I think most people are far more comfortable expressing their will in the privacy of a voting booth.
Add in the fact that these polls are basically just propaganda to show how unpopular wrong thinkers are, and these polls are total garbage.
As politically motivated as I am, I have no time for polls. They always take way too long to complete, and I’m suspicious of the way the questions are worded as well as what they’ll do with the information.
In this age of real consequences for stated political opinions, I think most people are far more comfortable expressing their will in the privacy of a voting booth.
489
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 11:31pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 31, 11:31pm
Goran_K says
And when he lost, crowing about how the Democrats upped their vote total ---- in an open seat, with tons of positive media coverage of Ossof, and the most spent on any Congressional Race in US History.
I remember certain posters in this thread talking lots of shit about how Ossof was going to win big.
And when he lost, crowing about how the Democrats upped their vote total ---- in an open seat, with tons of positive media coverage of Ossof, and the most spent on any Congressional Race in US History.
491
HappyGilmore
2018 Nov 1, 4:59pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
lol--it's a Republican +12 district!
Does more money change the demographics of the district?
And when he lost, crowing about how the Democrats upped their vote total ---- in an open seat, with tons of positive media coverage of Ossof, and the most spent on any Congressional Race in US History.
lol--it's a Republican +12 district!
Does more money change the demographics of the district?
492
Goran_K
2018 Nov 1, 5:01pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 1, 5:01pm
Hey Happy, be a little less "happy" about dishing out personal insults or I'm going to be happy to nuke your posts.
Thanks!
Thanks!
493
HappyGilmore
2018 Nov 1, 5:01pm
HeadSet says
lol--so does 538 predicting Republican 85% likely to win Senate fit that narrative?
Why do Trump supporters hate facts and data?
NS purpose is to give info that certain people want to hear, specifically fund raisers. Much easier to raise campaign funds for a likely winner than to raise campaign funds for a likely loser. Also, easier to get donations in general for the likely winner since many donors want to be investing in the winning side. Tell them what they want to hear all along, then claim the "probability" and "margin of error" excuses when outright wrong.
lol--so does 538 predicting Republican 85% likely to win Senate fit that narrative?
Why do Trump supporters hate facts and data?
494
HappyGilmore
2018 Nov 1, 5:03pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
I remember. Nobody had Handel down 10 points. Handel was pretty much always ahead in the polling and was expected to narrowly win. All the money spent there actually hurt Ossof because it increased Republican turnout. And it's tough to win a Republican +12 district when folks turn out.
Anybody remember Handel is Georgia's 6th? And all the money and time Hollywood, the Media, and Big Tech was dumped into it?
"Neck and Neck" pollsters crowed. Some gave had Handel down by 10pts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/20/new-forecast-only-a-55-chance-that-jon-ossoff-wins-georgias-house-special-election/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3c73d2103783
Hell some said Ossoff wasn't even going to have to go to runoff elections, getting more than 50% in the first round.
Handel won by 3.5 pts.
I remember. Nobody had Handel down 10 points. Handel was pretty much always ahead in the polling and was expected to narrowly win. All the money spent there actually hurt Ossof because it increased Republican turnout. And it's tough to win a Republican +12 district when folks turn out.
495
Goran_K
2018 Nov 1, 5:03pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 1, 5:03pm
lol, so spending more money on an election hurts the person spending the money?
hahaha ok
hahaha ok
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Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.