There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
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2018 May 14, 8:51am 80,304 views 699 comments
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581
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:14pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:14pm
Goran_K says
I never said that. And going in to today, I had close to zero hope for that.
AS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.
THe thing you don't get is that I respect the analysts far more than you, so I didn't have real hopes for the senate, but was concerned about the house.
But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?
I never said that. And going in to today, I had close to zero hope for that.
AS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.
THe thing you don't get is that I respect the analysts far more than you, so I didn't have real hopes for the senate, but was concerned about the house.
582
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:17pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:17pm
Just a reminder that Cook, Sabato, Nate Silver, etc. etc. went into today with the Dems winning something like 30-50 seats.
583
socal2
2018 Nov 6, 8:19pm
marcus says
Not only losing Senate seats, but losing the Governorships in big states like Ohio and Florida? That bodes well for Trump's re-election in 2020.
AS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.
Not only losing Senate seats, but losing the Governorships in big states like Ohio and Florida? That bodes well for Trump's re-election in 2020.
584
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:19pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:19pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Actually Nates average and median was something like 36 to 38. Very close to what's happening.
Just a reminder that Cook, Sabato, Nate Silver, etc. etc. went into today with the Dems winning something like 30-50 seats.
Actually Nates average and median was something like 36 to 38. Very close to what's happening.
585
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:20pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:20pm
socal2 says
No president has ever been elected losing Florida and Ohio. Trump has shown he has both states.
marcus saysAS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.
Not only losing Senate seats, but losing the Governorships in big states like Ohio and Florida? That bodes well for Trump's re-election in 2020.
No president has ever been elected losing Florida and Ohio. Trump has shown he has both states.
586
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm
Aphroman says
But were the Dems supposed to lose 4 (probably 5) senate seats? Not even Republicans thought that would happen.
Goran_K saysmarcus saysIs that your way of agreeing with me ? That just with respect to today ? I'm not disappointed and you are ?
Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.
I was being honest. I said the house thing sucked. But I’m happy to keep the POTUS, senate and SCOTUS and all federal judge appointments for the next 2 years. That honestly, no joke, makes me happy because judges at the circuit courts and SCOTUS last for decades and can over turn bad leftist laws.
But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?
That seems ... peculiar.
POTUS, Senate and SCOTUS were all already locked up...
But were the Dems supposed to lose 4 (probably 5) senate seats? Not even Republicans thought that would happen.
587
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm
Nate just now said that anything from 25 to 45 would not be crazy out of line (their average guess is now 33). All along he's understood the possibilities far better than you (or I).
588
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:22pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:22pm
marcus says
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
Nate just now said that anything from 25 to 45 would not be crazy out of line (their average guess is now 33). All along he's understood the possibilities far better than you (or I).
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
589
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:26pm
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:26pm
Goran_K says
Are you sure about that?
Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:
"Floridians approved a constitutional amendment to automatically restore voting rights to people with felony convictions once they complete their sentences, a historic move expanding the right to vote to about 1.4 million people and reverses a state policy rooted in the Jim Crow South.
***
People convicted of murder and sexual offenses are exempt from the amendment and won’t have their rights automatically restored.
***
The 1.4 million people in the state who have been disenfranchised by that policy represent an estimated 10 percent of Florida’s voting population and a quarter of the total disenfranchised population in the United States."
No president has ever been elected losing Florida and Ohio.
Are you sure about that?
Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:
"Floridians approved a constitutional amendment to automatically restore voting rights to people with felony convictions once they complete their sentences, a historic move expanding the right to vote to about 1.4 million people and reverses a state policy rooted in the Jim Crow South.
***
People convicted of murder and sexual offenses are exempt from the amendment and won’t have their rights automatically restored.
***
The 1.4 million people in the state who have been disenfranchised by that policy represent an estimated 10 percent of Florida’s voting population and a quarter of the total disenfranchised population in the United States."
591
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:30pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:30pm
Goran_K says
He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5
Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
This is based on polls.
He said 80% chance it's between +2 for democrats and +4 for republicans.
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5
Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
This is based on polls.
He said 80% chance it's between +2 for democrats and +4 for republicans.
592
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:32pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:32pm
marcus says
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
Goran_K saysHow many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5
Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
This is based on polls.
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
593
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
marcus says
Only care what he said before today. Like I said, adjusting a model as the test of the model is ongoing is not a vindication of the model.
Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5, Huge Extra Protein Shake Gains of Doom! in the Senate
Nate just now said
Only care what he said before today. Like I said, adjusting a model as the test of the model is ongoing is not a vindication of the model.
Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5, Huge Extra Protein Shake Gains of Doom! in the Senate
594
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
Goran_K says
Why is 538 still saying +3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.
Perhaps west coast ?
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
Why is 538 still saying +3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.
Perhaps west coast ?
595
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:36pm
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:36pm
Goran_K says
Among convicted felons, that might be true, and Florida has decided to add more than a million to the list of eligible voters. In 2016, President Trump carried FL by 100k votes, out of 9 million total. If a million more Democrats can vote starting in 2020, then that might tip the balance towards Democrats for statewide and federal offices.
The majority of felons in the United States are Democrats.
Among convicted felons, that might be true, and Florida has decided to add more than a million to the list of eligible voters. In 2016, President Trump carried FL by 100k votes, out of 9 million total. If a million more Democrats can vote starting in 2020, then that might tip the balance towards Democrats for statewide and federal offices.
596
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:41pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:41pm
marcus says
Uh because they’re wrong?
Goran_K saysThat is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
Why is 538 still saying +3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.
Perhaps west coast ?
Uh because they’re wrong?
597
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:42pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:42pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Correct even now he's not predicting that. Although as you say, at this point it's not predicting (unless it's you or Goran).
Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5
Correct even now he's not predicting that. Although as you say, at this point it's not predicting (unless it's you or Goran).
598
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:44pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:44pm
Goran_K says
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
Uh because they’re wrong?
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
599
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:53pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:53pm
Pmarcus says
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Bet confirmed?
Goran_K saysUh because they’re wrong?
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Bet confirmed?
600
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:56pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:56pm
Goran_K says
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100. 3 I win, 5 you win, 4 neither of us win.
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100. 3 I win, 5 you win, 4 neither of us win.
601
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
Imarcus says
Braun, Scott, Harley, Cramer.
Pay me.
@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
Goran_K saysYes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100.
Braun, Scott, Harley, Cramer.
Pay me.
@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
602
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
Senate = Republican
House = probably Democratic control, not exactly a wave though. Like a small ripple.
House = probably Democratic control, not exactly a wave though. Like a small ripple.
603
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:00pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:00pm
Marcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?
I can accept any.
I can accept any.
607
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:06pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:06pm
FortWayneIndiana says
I bet $1000 that GOP flipped 4 seats (with a 5th coming possibly). Marcus tried to be a bad ass and bet money that it was only 3 and I accepted.
Scott race was called in Florida making it the fourth flip.
Goran_K saysI’ll accept the gentleman’s $100 if you admit you were wrong.
did you guys bet money?
I bet $1000 that GOP flipped 4 seats (with a 5th coming possibly). Marcus tried to be a bad ass and bet money that it was only 3 and I accepted.
Scott race was called in Florida making it the fourth flip.
609
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
Aphroman says
I thought you were pro freedom.
@Patrick you want to be careful with your site and it’s mods participating in, and facilitating criminal activity
I thought you were pro freedom.
610
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
I didn't. I gave him an offer that still stands I win $100 if it's 3 or less. He wins $100 if it's 5, and neither of us win if it's 4.
Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.
Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.
611
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
Goran_K says
Nice bet
FortWayneIndiana saysGoran_K saysI’ll accept the gentleman’s $100 if you admit you were wrong.
did you guys bet money?
I bet $1000 that GOP flipped 4 seats (with a 5th coming possibly). Marcus tried to be a bad ass and bet money that it was only 3 and I accepted.
Scott race was called in Florida making it the fourth flip.
Nice bet
612
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm
Aphroman says
He owes me at least $100.
I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.
Goran_K saysMarcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.
Where did he confirm the $1000 bet?
He owes me at least $100.
I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.
613
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm
Aphroman says
Yeah very much so.
Goran_K saysMarcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?
I can accept any.
Is this legal?
Yeah very much so.
615
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:10pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:10pm
Pmarcus says
lol okay. You bet that it was 3 and asked if I was “sure it wasn’t”.
Now you’re changing the bet.
Okay fine. If it’s 5 flips, you owe me $1000 right? Confirm please.
I didn't. I gave him an offer that still stands I win $100 if it's 3 or less. He wins $100 if it's 5, and neither of us win if it's 4.
Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.
lol okay. You bet that it was 3 and asked if I was “sure it wasn’t”.
Now you’re changing the bet.
Okay fine. If it’s 5 flips, you owe me $1000 right? Confirm please.
618
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:16pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:16pm
Okay I accept marcuses modified, changed small time $100 wager. I usually don’t get out of bed for less than $2k but Marcus convinced me. Bet confirmed.
619
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:18pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:18pm
Aphroman says
I could cover $1,000 bets more than 2,000 times. I even proved it to iwog when he came back for a little bit and sent him away from PatNet sulking and crying. It was funny as shit.
Goran_K saysAphroman saysGoran_K saysMarcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.
Where did he confirm the $1000 bet?
He owes me at least $100.
I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.
I never saw Marcus confirm any wager
He considered your reputation and wisely asked how he could hold you to the wager because you giving your word isn’t worth much
I could cover $1,000 bets more than 2,000 times. I even proved it to iwog when he came back for a little bit and sent him away from PatNet sulking and crying. It was funny as shit.
620
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:19pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:19pm
Aphroman says
It’s a gentleman’s wager. Don’t worry I won’t hurt Marcus. He’s safe with me.
FortWayneIndiana saysAphroman saysGoran_K saysMarcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?
I can accept any.
Is this legal?
Yeah very much so.
How do you figure?
@Patrick you going to take FortWayneIndiana word that facilitating a wager is very much so legal on your site?
It’s a gentleman’s wager. Don’t worry I won’t hurt Marcus. He’s safe with me.
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Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.