patrick.net

Goran_K says

Now you’re changing the bet.

I have a screen shot of

marcus says

Goran_K says

Uh because they’re wrong?

What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?

I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.

And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?

curious2 says

Are you sure about that?

Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:

I voted against that, it's sad it passed.

I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.

curious2 says

Are you sure about that?

Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:

I voted against that, it's sad it passed.

I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.

marcus says

Goran_K says

Now you’re changing the bet.

I have a screen shot of

marcus says

Goran_K says

Uh because they’re wrong?

What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?

I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.

And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?

What are you talking about? The Dems have not flipped a senate seat yet.

IT was 51 - 49

this says it's now 53 - 47 .

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html

That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?

What you take the gain for republicans and add it to the loss for democrats to come up with 4 ?

Wtf ?

Republicans will pick up either 2 or 3 seats in the senate, no ?

marcus says

That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?

NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

There's still the potential to pick up Montana, too, which would be 5.

And Arizona, which isn't really a pick up, but Flake was a major NeverTrump PITA, so it's kind of a pickup if Sinema is beaten off.

Marcus just pay me my $100. Scott was the 4th flipped seat.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.

That would be 3. 54 - 51 = 3 OH, is it becasue they aren't counting Nevada ? Why is that ?

No, that's not it. I still don't get it. But then I haven't been watching the tube.

Marcus:

Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.

Why does 538 have it as most likely to end up being net gain of 3 and NYT (your link) shows it at 53 republicans now, up from 51 ? with an equal number of undeclared on each side, or perhaps one more for republicans.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Florida

Headline:

DeSantis defeats Gillum in RACIALLY CHARGED Florida campaign that followed Trump’s playbook

No one saw that coming, did they? In other words, he was the perfect candidate except for his race?

Well see in the end. It was 51 republicans in the senate yesterday, I think it will be 54 when this is all over, maybe only 53. I'm out.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Marcus:

Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.

lol I posted the same list.

I’m surprised at how close James and Hugin got to flipping the seats in their states. Both of those guys got out spent like 10 to 1.

Aphroman says

Damn Ocasio Cortez won the House Seat in NY, i bet that triggers millions of SJW Trumpcucks once they catch wind of it.

I disagree. Ocasio Cortez can only help especially if she gets tv time.

Herdingcats says

Aphroman says

WOW 114 million voters hit the voting booths today.

I'd say blue tsunami, if they had taken all of Congress. Does just taking back the house qualify as a blue wave?

Its less than historical average so no, not even close.

Still unfortunate D's won the house.

So what is the net pick up in Senate seats for republicans ?

Is that known yet ?

Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.

Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.

Aphroman says

Damn Ocasio Cortez won the House Seat in NY, i bet that triggers millions of SJW Trumpcucks once they catch wind of it.

Do not think most Republicans would care between her and the the Democrat she defeated in the primary.

But this may bring something interesting to watch. We may see a battle between the Democratic Socialists and the Democratic Geriatrics. Is Ocasio Cortez going to rally the other "young" Democrats behind ideas like abolish ICE, free college, and Universal Free Health Care, or is Old Nancy and crew going to swat her down? Even though Ocasio Cortez took out Nancy's main contender in the Primary, maybe this new crop of Democrats would insist on a different Speaker this time over Nancy.

PrivilegedtobeWhite says

Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.

If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?

The Democrats in the house may now set the agenda. Perhaps they’ll be better at that than the GOP was. Perhaps they’ll spend all their energy on “investigation” of everyone they don’t like.
The first will reward them, and Trump will work with them. The second will lead to punishment in 2020.

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.

Quigley says

The Democrats in the house may now set the agenda. Perhaps they’ll be better at that than the GOP was. Perhaps they’ll spend all their energy on “investigation” of everyone they don’t like.
The first will reward them, and Trump will work with them. The second will lead to punishment in 2020.

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.

Yep. That's why the market is up as well. In anticipation that nobody can point fingers anymore and that there actually may be some bi-partisan work getting done while volatility is out with the checks and balances. Dems have a chance to make up for their disastrous results in 2016 if they go back to more heartland type Democrats towards the middle such as Collins from ME. And kick out the shrieking batshit nutter cat-lady pound-me-too harpies. Let's see if they can do it, even Perez yesterday sounded halfway decent.

marcus says

PrivilegedtobeWhite says

Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.

If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?

It's already a net pickup of 3, with a potential of 5

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country.

The two parties working together on immigration means the Dems and Repubs will come together against the Trump supporters to push open borders. Remember, Trump is not really a Republican. He only ran as a Republican because as as an Independent, he would have got nowhere, and he could not run as a Democrat because he knew the Hillary nomination was baked in. In reality, he annexed the Republican party after usurping the Bushies and is trying to transform the Republican party from the right of center wing of the Demopublican Party to a more nationalist party that emphasizes pride in America, curtails illegal immigration, brings home manufacturing, and makes allies pay their fare share of defense.

PrivilegedtobeWhite says

marcus says

PrivilegedtobeWhite says

Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.

If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?

It's already a net pickup of 3, with a potential of 5

Looks like Montana went blue, so potential pickup of 4 depending on Arizona.

HeadSet says

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country.

The two parties working together on immigration means the Dems and Repubs will come together against the Trump supporters to push open borders. Remember, Trump is not really a Republican. He only ran as a Republican because as as an Independent, he would have got nowhere, and he could not run as a Democrat because he knew the Hillary nomination was baked in. In reality, he annexed the Republican party after usurping the Bushies and is trying to transform the Republican party from the right of center wing of the Demopublican Party to a more nationalist party that emphasizes pride in America, curtails illegal immigration, brings home manufacturing, and makes allies pay their fare share of defense.

There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders. It's definitely a risk that policies go mainstream by going bipartisan, but Trump also energized Repub cucks to be more self-confident. Ultimately you have to work with what your constituents want, and I don't see that years of gridlock would be seen in Trump's favor. If it ever becomes unlivable should there be - which I don't project - a leftoid wave destroying the MAGA, you have options now since parts of Europe have gone more MAGA than Trump. Italy, Hungary, Poland, Austria, all beautiful countries, rich of economical and natural (if you're not married) beauty and MAGA leaders. Or wait til Ballsonaro has cleaned up Brazil. Gotta think global these days, these countries would all love more straight white pillars of society.

There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching (save WV).

Quigley says

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.

Damn Quigley, you have been on fire with some good observations. Noticing the punishment for Kavanaugh, anywhere the Senate Contest was anything like a fight, was spot on. Manchin was the only Dem to vote FOR Kavanaugh and even though he was in Red WV, he got re-elected.

Trump pre-positioned a bit of a talking point before the election: A promise of a 10% middle class tax cut on top of the big tax cut that was just implemented.

For the next two years "We wanted to pass a 10% tax cut, but the Democratic Congress won't allow it" if the Democrats act feisty, and as further motivation for Republicans and Fiscal-minded Independents in 2020.

And yes, now the Dems own the budget.

I wonder if the Democrat Deficit Hawks will still be screeching going forward

HeadSet says

There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.

Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.

Trump can just enforce the laws on the books. That will clamp down on immigration just dandy.

Sanctuary Cities, and maybe Sanctuary states.

Motel 6 just got sued for turning over guest names to ICE. Motel 6 will even have to pay actual illegal aliens damages from "violation of privacy."

Trump will have an uphill battle enforcing immigration laws. He will get extreme push back by Dems and Repubs that want low wage labor, Dems who see votes in illegals, and virtue signaling Dem citizens who are in positions not to be hurt by an influx of illegals.

mell says

HeadSet says

There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.

Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.

Collins is a Republican. I knew you meant Manchin from WV, so I corrected my post.

HeadSet says

mell says

HeadSet says

There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.

Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.

Collins is a Republican. I knew you meant Manchin from WV, so I corrected my post.

You're right. We shall see if the Dems will dial the leftoid nutter setting back a bit now that they have some fiscal and economic responsibility.

We're going to see how divided government is, and it's not going to be like Dem House and Reagan in 1980s, or even the Rep House and Clinton in the 90s, which was far less hostile and combative than people think - Clinton was really a conservative Southern Democrat and the distance on many issues was small.

But now we have a Neoliberal-Socialist SJW House against somebody who in any time from 1940 to 2010 would be basically a Centrist.

FPBT says

Sure sounds like Marcus meant plus

Not only did I say that I meant plus three, it was understood. But a couple of right wingers in this thread didn't even know, that it took republicans flipping three just to keep it at 51 republicans.

Note this back and forth:

Goran_K says

marcus says

Goran_K says

That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.

Why is 538 still saying +3.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.

Perhaps west coast ?

Uh because they’re wrong?

I made it very clear that I was talking about net change. IT is was clear that both Goran and two scoops thought that republican flips meant net increases, when there were other factors at play.

But also he was joking about me owing him $1000. I think.

Actually if we had made that bet, I might still be winning it. But we didn't. The bet that I did offer, I almost surely wouldn't lose (they would have to be net up 5 for me to lose the bet I offered, which he did not accept).

APHAman says

marcus says

But also he was joking about me owing him $1000. I think.

Actually if we had made that bet, I might still be winning it. But we didn't. The bet that I did offer, I almost surely wouldn't lose (they would have to be net up 5 for me to lose the bet I offered, which he did not accept).

It’s odd that people will talk shit for months when it doesn’t mean anything, then when it’s time to get some skin in the game, the cower in the corner hoping mommee will save them. Maybe that’s why they always support Republicans and chide ‘liberals’. They’re happy to lose their freedoms to avoid having any skin in the game.

You two need to stop being so mean

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

For posterity:

So, let's recap. As I tried to tell all of you, Nate was almost perfect. Dems are expected to win 38 seats when all is said and done and votes are done counting in CA.

The RCP polling average is going to be pretty damn close as well with Dems +7 or +7.5

My favorite--GA6 went to Dems this go around. Just needed a better candidate than Ossoff.

And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many former Republicans that they still lost. So there's no reason to think he'll do any better in 2020.

OK-had to come back to gloat. Happy out.

HappyGilmore says

And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many former Republicans that they still lost. So there's no reason to think he'll do any better in 2020.

OK-had to come back to gloat. Happy out.

Hate to say this but you're mostly right here. It was white women who have increased their support for the Dems, otherwise this election would have been another disaster for the blue team. I doubt though that many are soccer moms as even suburbia hasn't been immune to the growing epidemic of lone childless post-wall cat-lady harpies who have ridden the cock carousel just one too many times and now need to express their bitterness by denying happily married women and white men their pursuit of happiness.

The big news is that the wealthy voted Democrat. They want their open borders and the jobs they outsources to reimport back to Middle America they destroyed tariff-free
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-election-precinct-results/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0b366a109cac

The party realignment continues. And of course the Cat Ladies came out in force.

Congrats on FINALLY being right about something, though.

TSenate, which will gain even if Broward and PBC manufactures enough ballots and keeps breaking Florida Laws, went far to the Red. That wasn't no Dem+7 result, especially since many were close races and one happened in a Swing State. A reminder that NO POLLSTER consensus predicted a 2-4 Republican Gain. I can't think of a major pollster who did so.

It sure looks like the deciding factor in the Senate was the Kavanaugh vote, which mitigates the Suburban White Woman theory.

But, it's really no biggie, the House was on par with a typical midterm election. The Senate was a bit of a shock.

The fun is the long delayed Democrat Civil War between Trad Libs, SJWs, and Neoliberals. I'm sure 70-something Pelosi will be bringing fresh, undisputed, vibrant leadership.

Also, the strategy was to pump the Senate Races, but not so much the House races. Looks like this was misguided.

And, the Democrats outspent the Republicans again. They were able to do so, despite being almost bust after 2016, because the Wealthy lavished them with donations.