patrick.net

AI is WAY over rated.

Way, way, way overrated. The latest Security Guard Robot, developed for millions by IT Geniuses, drove itself into a fountain hours after it's test patrolling began. Speaking of AI, no robot built has learned to open simple latch doors yet.

This is something my organic replicant figured out a few weeks after he learned to walk.

2+ Billion years of Trial and Error with lives on the line since Eukaryotes first emerged, with mass extinctions from the Great Oxygenation Event to Snowball Earths to multiple Hothouses, Heavily Acidified Oceans, 350x CO2 levels, etc. etc. won't be caught up to anytime soon.

That's what they said about Wind and Solar.

It depends, ATMs etc work great and maybe making cars, burgers etc? But more complex stuff might be more difficult?

Thorium Molten Salt reactors must be built left and right. That's the solution.

You can keep the pressure inside less than that of the atmosphere, and since it doesn't cool with water nor does it need to be many times the atmospheric pressure at sea level, there's no steam escaping anyway like in Obsolete Uranium & Water Cooled reactors.

In the 70s, thanks to misguided environmentalists and Presidents Nixon through Carter, we nixed huge chunks of our nuclear research programs and lost half a century of development.

895Isp engines, bitches.

AI is the future, assuming they ever get it to work properly. It also might spell the doom of humanity. All depends on how the singularity goes!

THE SKY IS FALLING, FOLKS!!!!

Early adopters of AI in transportation and logistics already enjoy profit margins greater than 5% — while non-adopters are in the red
This is a preview of a research report from Business Insider Intelligence, Business Insider's premium research service.

Major logistics providers have long relied on analytics and research teams to make sense of the data they generate from their operations.



But with volumes of data growing, and the insights that can be gleaned becoming increasingly varied and granular, these companies are starting to turn to artificial intelligence (AI) computing techniques, like machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing, to streamline and automate various processes. These techniques teach computers to parse data in a contextual manner to provide requested information, supply analysis, or trigger an event based on their findings. They are also uniquely well suited to rapidly analyzing huge data sets, and have a wide array of applications in different aspects of supply chain and logistics operations.

AI's ability to streamline so many supply chain and logistics functions is already delivering a competitive advantage for early adopters by cutting shipping times and costs. A cross-industry study on AI adoption conducted in early 2017 by McKinsey found that early adopters with a proactive AI strategy in the transportation and logistics sector enjoyed profit margins greater than 5%. Meanwhile, respondents in the sector that had not adopted AI were in the red.

However, these crucial benefits have yet to drive widespread adoption. Only 21% of the transportation and logistics firms in McKinsey's survey had moved beyond the initial testing phase to deploy AI solutions at scale or in a core part of their business. The challenges to AI adoption in the field of supply chain and logistics are numerous and require major capital investments and organizational changes to overcome.

In The AI in The Supply Chain Report, Business Insider Intelligence, Business Insider's premium research service, explores the vast impact that AI techniques like machine learning will have on the supply chain and logistics space. We detail the myriad applications for these computational techniques in the industry, and the adoption of those different applications. We also share some examples of companies that have demonstrated success with AI in their supply chain and logistics operations. Lastly, we break down the many factors that are holding organizations back from implementing AI projects and gaining the full benefits of this disruptive technology.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

• The current interest in and early adoption of AI systems is being driven by several key factors, including increased demands from shippers, recent technological breakthroughs, and significant investments in data visibility by the industry's largest players.

• AI can deliver enormous benefits to supply chain and logistics operations, including cost reductions through reduced redundancies and risk mitigation, improved forecasting, faster deliveries through more optimized routes, improved customer service, and more.

• Legacy players face many substantial obstacles to deploying and reaping the benefits of AI systems, though, including data accessibility and workforce challenges.

• AI adoption in the logistics industry is strongly skewed toward the biggest players, because overcoming these major challenges requires costly investments in updating IT systems and breaking down data silos, as well as hiring expensive teams of data scientists.

• Although AI implementations are unlikely to result in large-scale workforce reductions in the near term, companies still need to develop strategies to address how workers' roles will change as AI systems automate specific functions.

In full, the report:

• Details the factors driving adoption of AI systems in the supply chain and logistics field.

• Examines the benefits that AI can deliver in reducing costs and shipping times for supply chain and logistics operations.

• Explains the many challenges companies face in implementing AI in their supply chain and logistics operations to reap the benefits of this transformational technology.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-supply-chain-logistics-report-2018-1

Note: Take particular note of the reference to "legacy" players in the first list of bullet items.

In the past I have commented over and over again about "legacy" plants and institutions not being able to transition quickly and having too much baggage they are unable or unwilling to get rid of to be competitive.

Quigley says

AI is the future, assuming they ever get it to work properly. It also might spell the doom of humanity. All depends on how the singularity goes!

AI doesnt think. It computes. AI will always require a human to define variables.

An augmented, cyborg-humanity is our future. A star trek-like Borg w HRC's grandchild at the controls is our future, if we can't stop the group-think technocrat tyrannists from controlling us all.

The Unbearable Conundrum of AI Consciousness - Will machines one day become self-aware?

Machine learning is an application of artificial intelligence (AI) where computers can learn without being explicitly programmed. Technology is advancing towards artificial general intelligence (AGI), where machine intelligence is able to do any intellectual endeavor that a human is able to perform. This trend is fueled by the rising ubiquity of cloud computing, which enables greater computing power, the increasing sophistication of algorithms, the falling costs of data storage and acquisition, and the increasing general availability of data. Futurist Ray Kurzweil, Director of Engineering at Google, predicts that by 2029 computers will have human-level intelligence [1]. Since the 1990s Kurzweil has made 147 future predictions with 86 percent accuracy [2]. If a computer is able to learn over time, and eventually becomes cognitively as powerful as humans, can it learn to be aware of itself?

In humans, self-awareness is developed during early childhood. Reflective self-awareness, when children are able to match their movements with reflections in a mirror, generally starts around the ages of 15-18 months and becomes a trait of a typically developing child by the age of 24-26 months [3]. The same does not necessarily hold true for animals.

In 1970, psychologist Gordon Gallup Jr. devised a method to test if animals could recognize themselves in mirrors with inconclusive results [4]. A few species, such as Asian elephants, orangutans and chimpanzees passed, but only inconsistently [5]. Bottlenose dolphins, killer whales and two captive manta rays passed, but those results are subject to interpretation [6]. Most animals are not self-aware and would not be able to recognize their own reflections in the mirror [7]. In 2008, two European magpies passed the mirror test (administered by Helmut Prior from Goethe University), but not other corvids [8]. There are myriad possible reasons for the mixed results of the animal mirror test. More studies are necessary to reach a conclusive answer.

It goes without saying that inanimate objects such as a rock and toaster are not self-aware, lacking both a brain and sensory input. But can a computer robot outfitted with sensory input capabilities similar to human vision, hearing, touch, taste, and smell be able to recognize itself in a mirror?

Technically, the answer is yes. The robot’s computer brain could be programmed in such a way that if the reflection in the mirror meets a defined sensory input criteria, then a variable “self” is established. The unique identifier could be as simple as a barcode or as sophisticated as a combination of unique physical characteristics similar to the human thumbprint, face, and body. But recognition of a programmed “self” doesn’t make a robot self-aware in the same sense as a human, and hard-coding variables in a computer program is not machine-learning.

Let’s examine the example of a robot with machine-learning capabilities that is also outfitted with sensory input capabilities, and has been given enough training and data to identify a robot, but has not been explicitly programmed to recognize itself. Now set it in front of a mirror. If the robot commands itself to raise its arm in front of the mirror, and it sees the expected movement, would the robot eventually develop a sense that the arm it sees in the reflection is its own and not that of a different robot mimicking its moves? Through learning and experience via multiple iterations of trial and error, can a machine eventually develop a sense of self and become aware?

“Cogito ergo sum” is a Latin philosophical dictum by the French mathematician, scientist, and philosopher of metaphysics, René Descartes (1596-1650) that means “I think, therefore I am” [8]. Descartes, generally known as the father of modern philosophy, studied the fundamental nature of reality and existence itself [9]. He defines thoughts in terms of consciousness [10]. If artificial general intelligence is achieved, and the cognitive capabilities of a machine become indistinguishable from that of a human, technological singularity may reshape the very definition of what it means to be conscious and to exist, forever altering the course of humanity

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-future-brain/201801/the-unbearable-conundrum-ai-consciousness

Intelligent Robots Will Overtake Humans by 2100

Are you prepared to meet your robot overlords?

The idea of superintelligent machines may sound like the plot of "The Terminator" or "The Matrix," but many experts say the idea isn't far-fetched. Some even think the singularity — the point at which artificial intelligence can match, and then overtake, human smarts — might happen in just 16 years.

But nearly every computer scientist will have a different prediction for when and how the singularity will happen.

Some believe in a utopian future, in which humans can transcend their physical limitations with the aid of machines. But others think humans will eventually relinquish most of their abilities and gradually become absorbed into artificial intelligence (AI)-based organisms, much like the energy making machinery in our own cells. [5 Reasons to Fear Robots]

Singularity near?

In his book "The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology" (Viking, 2005), futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that computers will be as smart as humans by 2029, and that by 2045, "computers will be billions of times more powerful than unaided human intelligence," Kurzweil wrote in an email to LiveScience.

"My estimates have not changed, but the consensus view of AI scientists has been changing to be much closer to my view," Kurzweil wrote.

Bill Hibbard, a computer scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, doesn't make quite as bold a prediction, but he's nevertheless confident AI will have human-level intelligence some time in the 21st century.

"Even if my most pessimistic guess is true, it means it's going to happen during the lifetime of people who are already born," Hibbard said.

But other AI researchers are skeptical.

"I don't see any sign that we're close to a singularity," said Ernest Davis, a computer scientist at New York University.

While AI can trounce the best chess or Jeopardy player and do other specialized tasks, it's still light-years behind the average 7-year-old in terms of common sense, vision, language and intuition about how the physical world works, Davis said.

For instance, because of that physical intuition, humans can watch a person overturn a cup of coffee and just know that the end result will be a puddle on the floor. A computer program, on the other hand, would have to do a laborious simulation and know the exact size of the cup, the height of the cup from the surface and various other parameters to understand the outcome, Davis said. [10 Cool Facts About Coffee]

Infinite abilities

Once the singularity occurs, people won't necessarily die (they can simply upgrade with cybernetic parts), and they could do just about anything they wanted to — provided it were physically possible and didn't require too much energy, Hibbard said.

The past two singularities — the Agricultural and Industrial revolutions — led to a doubling in economic productivity every 1,000 and 15 years, respectively, said Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University in Washington, D.C., who is writing a book about the future singularity. But once machines become as smart as men, the economy will double every week or month.

This rapid pace of productivity would be possible because the main "actors" in the economy, namely people, could simply be replicated for whatever it costs to copy an intelligent-machine software into another computer.

Earth's destruction?

That productivity spike may not be a good thing. For one, robots could probably survive apocalyptic scenarios that would wipe out humans.

"A society or economy made primarily of robots will not fear destroying nature in the same way that we should fear destroying nature," Hanson said.

And others worry that we're barreling toward a future that doesn't take people into account. For instance, self-driving cars could improve safety, but also put millions of truck drivers out of work, Hibbard said. So far, no one is planning for those possibilities.

"There are such strong financial incentives in using technology in ways that aren't necessarily in everyone's interest," Hibbard said. "That's going to be a very difficult problem, possibly an unsolvable problem."

Human devolution?

Some scientists think we are already in the midst of the singularity.

Humans have already relinquished many intelligent tasks, such as the ability to write, navigate, memorize facts or do calculations, Joan Slonczewski, a microbiologist at Kenyon college and the author of a science-fiction book called "The Highest Frontier," (Tor Books, 2011). Since Gutenberg invented the printing press, humans have continuously redefined intelligence and transferred those tasks to machines. Now, even tasks considered at the core of humanity, such as caring for the elderly or the sick, are being outsourced to empathetic robots, she said.

"The question is, could we evolve ourselves out of existence, being gradually replaced by the machines?" Slonczewski said. "I think that's an open question."

In fact, the future of humanity may be similar to that of mitochondria, the energy powerhouses of cells. Mitochondria were once independent organisms, but at some point, an ancestral cell engulfed those primitive bacteria, and over evolutionary history, mitochondria let cells gradually take over all the functions they used to perform, until they only produced energy.

"We're becoming like the mitochondria. We provide the energy — we turn on the machines," Slonczewski told LiveScience. "But increasingly, they do everything else."

https://www.livescience.com/29379-intelligent-robots-will-overtake-humans.html

Humans will eventually be replaced one way or the other and NO - AI will not always require human overlords - we may require AI overlords however to protect us from ourselves and going extinct

Please stop w the walls of copy paste text. Try communicating your thoughts only

CBOEtrader says

Please stop w the walls of copy paste text. Try communicating your thoughts only

Don't like it - don't read it.

Using a smart phone to monitor the forum - sounds like a personal problem

Too many people reacting to headlines and not even bothering to click on the link to see what is contained therein or if they do, stop reading after the first paragraph.

If the link is broken, not enough ambition to go to the source to find the link - easier to complain and toss out a "wonder why that is"

If I put something down be it an article or whatever - that conveys my thoughts. I do the same with my selection of music that I post here. That is another way I convey my thoughts on something. Can' figure it out with music - still not my problem.

Funny someone in California always shows up on line when someone else (Moi) is three hours ahead of them (Eastern Standard Time) and posts something - why is that ?

Couldn't be someone is looking for an opening to launch an attack now could it ?

Not enough information - too much information - personally I do not have a problem reading. That is one significant way learning occurs.

Want to have a back and forth over headlines - find someone else to do that with.

No thoughts of your own. Got it.

Ok, you do you.

CBOEtrader says

No thoughts of your own. Got it.

Ok, you do you.

What a wonderful thoughtful response that proves my allegation 100% and then some.

The only people who have opted to "follow" me on this forum are people with whom I disagree on most everything, on my ignore list and are also on PST v EST.

Can not fathom any reason why someone on PST would sign in on a regular basis when I post something at 5:00 A.M. EST for example. Doesn't add up.

The only reason I can discern for someone to follow someone with whom they are in total disagreement is to look and wait for an opportunity to launch an attack on that person,
not because they are interested in the subject matter of what is being posted.

By posting limited text that gives the attacker sound byte ammunition to launch, then go in and carefully select individual sentences etc. from the link to make their case against the other person while keeping the mind numbing game of "gothca" going as long as possible while collecting high fives in the form of upvotes from their allies.

Changing the parameters of the "conversation", moving the goalposts etc. are all part of the gambit.

The only people that I see complaining about walls of text etc. are also on the list of people I have on ignore.

Been around this forum in one fashion or another since 2013 - I know how the games are played, know the players even with the name changes.

Don't want to see my postings - put me on ignore - so then when you are signed in, you won't see it. Problem solved.

Definitely not going to hurt my feelings one iota.

MolotovCocktail says

In the economy, in Oz, ‘CBA U-turns on AI job cuts, calls back humans’; and

‘The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst’ (Telegraph) where “Shock sell-off after study warns most investments in artificial intelligence get zero returns”;

https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/1958330892210057325