patrick.net

WookieMan says

Nobody changed their W4 and you know you can't prove it.

Even these people?

Duration of Employment Relationships
The length of time a worker remains with an employer increased with the age at which the worker began
the job. Of the jobs that workers began when they were 18 to 24 years of age, 69 percent of those jobs
ended in less than a year and 93 percent ended in fewer than 5 years. Among jobs started by 35 to 44
year olds, 36 percent ended in less than a year, and 75 percent ended in fewer than 5 years.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/nlsoy.pdf

Apparently "nobody" changes jobs during the year and fills out a new W-4.

Aphroman says

What would happen if we went back to the good old days of no moderators?

Iwog would tell you're your stupid.

Aphroman says

. I thought that changing my name might help out with my posts being censored by the moderator(s)

It's not the name of the poster, it's the content of the post that gets you censored.

Argue ideas not personality.

Aphroman says

Bitter, jealous people will do anything to try and cut down successful people

Yep.

LeonDurham says

Trump tax plan is driving wages down

So you're telling me government can't fix my life?

You've gotta stop contradicting yourself. Not a good look.

MrMagic says

Because it's not backed by facts or links

MrMagic says

Wrong again:

Hyperlink

A hyperlink is a word, phrase, or image that you can click on to jump to a new document or a new section within the current document. Hyperlinks are found in nearly all Web pages, allowing users to click their way from page to page. Text hyperlinks are often blue and underlined, but don't have to be.
https://techterms.com/definition/hyperlink

Again, you're showing your age.

MrMagic says

Reading comprehension is so difficult it seems:

MrMagic says

Any chance you can read that bold part above where it says "Revenues from federal income taxes were $76 billion higher" even though the new lower withholding schedules went into affect?

I've never stated the revenue was higher because of the tax "schedules" being reduced. That's you. The reason revenues increased could be a ton of things. To attribute the entire 9% increase to tax withholdings (schedules), even though most people don't touch their W-4 throughout the year is absurd. Regardless of getting a new job. Most people don't even know how to fill the damn form out.

It's very likely a lot of high income earners with increased wages bumped it, keeping their withholdings (W4) the same, and the bottom tier keeping their same salary and therefore the tax revenues increased. Has nothing to do with tax "schedules" as you mention. Unless you're a CPA, nobody is adjusting their withholdings (up or down) based on the new tax law. It's just up because the economy is better and income is up. You can mention "schedules" until you're blue in the face, but it makes zero sense.

MrMagic says

Apparently "nobody" changes jobs during the year and fills out a new W-4.

Lol as usual. Most people, even if they change jobs every year will fill out a W-4 the exact same every year. The economy is good, that's why tax withholdings are higher. Get off the "schedule" thing man.

The confusion never ends for some.

Let's see if I can make it even simpler. First, I made this statement.

MrMagic says

The latest monthly budget report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office finds that revenues from federal income taxes were $76 billion higher in the first half of this year, compared with the first half of 2017. That's a 9% jump, even though the lower income tax withholding schedules went into effect in February.

What does that mean. It means that Federal Income Taxes (collected from wages) are 9% higher even though the new LOWER withholding schedules went into affect.

For the simple minded here, that means PEOPLE ARE MAKING MORE MONEY (WAGES), because the Federal Government is collecting higher taxes compared to last year, even with lower withholding tax rates.

Which part of "People are making more money" (contrary to the OP of this thread) isn't clear?

MrMagic says

For the simple minded here, that means PEOPLE ARE MAKING MORE MONEY (WAGES), because the Federal Government is collecting higher taxes compared to last year, even with lower withholding tax rates.

No shit Sherlock. I've said revenues are up because of income. You seem to think everyone adjusted their W-4 to withhold less AND revenues are 9% higher. It's simply more income from revenues and people keeping their withholdings the same. When people adjust their withholdings, the revenue will drop, you do understand that, right?

WookieMan says

It's very likely a lot of high income earners with increased wages bumped it, keeping their withholdings (W4) the same, and the bottom tier keeping their same salary and therefore the tax revenues increased. Has nothing to do with tax "schedules" as you mention.

You do this shit all the time. READING COMPREHENSION apparently isn't your strong suit. The increase in revenue does not mean that the new tax plan automatically reduced peoples tax withholdings (W4). You have to fill out a new W4. Stop talking about tax schedules, it makes ZERO sense as does your statement (I won't even call them arguments, because I genuinely hope they're not - they're bad).

WookieMan says

The increase in revenue does not mean that the new tax plan automatically reduced peoples tax withholdings

Lighten Up Francis, I never said that was the reason. That was part of a complete PARAGRAPH I posted above.

Go scroll up, everything I posted was regarding wages and salaries going up, PERIOD, This is a DIRECT respond to the OP Fake news article saying wages went down.

It's YOUR hardon about tax schedules, go scroll up and see the COMPLETE article repost from the BEA and CBO that I made above. You jump in at the END of a discussion and start with the BS, try following along in the COMPLETE discussion.

MrMagic says

It's YOUR hardon about tax schedules, go scroll up and see the COMPLETE article repost from the BEA and CBO that I made above. You jump in at the END of a discussion and start with the BS, try following along in the COMPLETE discussion.

Why mention tax schedules then? I appreciated tax cuts, more money in my pocket. The problem is that nobody knows what the eventual outcome will be. Regardless of how many paragraphs typed, you're insinuating that people have reduced their withholdings and that revenues are up 9% with zero proof that even a significant number of people have changed their withholding.

Basically, you're saying tax revenues are up and people are paying less due to the tax cuts. It's just not true. They're just going to get a bigger return next year (outside of IL, CA, NJ & NY for the most part). Most people that make what would be considered good money won't touch their W4 if they're smart and wait to see how this all settles down come April-June of 2019.

It's just one sentence. Tax revenues are up because incomes are up. Revenues aren't up because you can now withhold less. That sounds like a party talking point fed to the sheep. I don't agree with the OP, but lets not muddy the water and completely shit on the reality of the situation.

CovfefeButDeadly says

What is necessary to support such an idea is the false notion that the money pie remains a constant.

Whatever the pie is doing, it is clear that the lower 60% are getting not only a lower share of the pie, but also just less in real term.
Consider the cost of housing and healthcare, which they can't avoid. The rising cost of food.
Consider stagnating low wages.
Consider disappearing pensions.
Consider the hyper competition of workers for low skills jobs, and the constant job insecurity.
Consider the shrinking levels of upward social mobility.
This represents a catastrophic collapse of standards of living for the bottom 60%.
While the rich takes more and more.
A meme like "yeah but the pie is growing" is utter BS and propaganda.

Heraclitusstudent says

Consider the hyper competition of workers for low skills jobs, and the constant job insecurity.

Laziness. If you are competing for low skilled jobs your entire life, it simply means you never sought to improve your skill set or make something better of yourself.

The OP is a chart from payscale.com with no explanation of data or processes to get that data and calc the figure.

So....making assumptions from a figure that you dont understand isn't wise. Perhaps the OP can suggest exactly what that chart is representing? I doubt it

OK, one last time....

WookieMan says

Tax revenues are up because incomes are up.

Correct. Which is exactly MY point which conflicts with the OP narrative.

WookieMan says

Revenues aren't up because you can now withhold less.

Revenues are up 9% from last year, where do revenues come from? Tax withholding on wages. Even though the lower withholding rates kicked in this year, which means the Feds get LESS income from income taxes, the revenues are still up 9%. If wages were dropping, like the OP claims, the revenue numbers would be in the minuses, even before the lower withholding rates.

How much would revenues to the .Gov be up if the old, higher withholding tables were still active? Probably MORE than 9%.

CBOEtrader says

The OP is a chart from payscale.com with no explanation of data or processes to get that data and calc the figure.

I was going to reference that. They use some obscure Payscale Index (which no one knows how or where the data comes from) to determine their report.

Then, the Opinion author from the Trump hating Bloomberg tries to "sell it" as some factual data chart.

It's so laughable,,,,,,

CBOEtrader says

Perhaps the OP can suggest exactly what that chart is representing?

I'd like to hear that too!

Goran_K says

Laziness. If you are competing for low skilled jobs your entire life, it simply means you never sought to improve your skill set or make something better of yourself.

This is the kind of easy rationalizations that keeps people from seeing the picture in front of them.

1 - First, it requires to believe that 2/3 of the population of the US became lazy and stupid, and unable to adjust. Why is it suddenly the case?
2 - There was a time when for example being a cook was a skill, now most jobs have been commoditized i.e. emptied from any skills and reduced to simple robotic gestures: you don't cook, you flip burgers. And anyone can do it. And there are hundreds of millions of people that are waiting to do it. The real restaurants that require real cooks are increasingly very few.
3 - not only these jobs are commoditized, they are increasingly automatized. Leaving less possibilities for people at the bottom.
4 - The jobs that require skills, like data scientists require so much of it that they can't be done by the average schmuck. These jobs get most of the pay gains. The top 10% get most of the gains. It doesn't mean that if 50% of people could do the job, they would get similar jobs, with these salaries. Instead only the best 1 in 10 get these jobs. It doesn't matter how hard you worked, if someone who is better than you, or more connected, took your job.

Heraclitusstudent says

Consider the hyper competition of workers for low skills jobs, and the constant job insecurity.

That's mainly an illegal immigration issue. Wages have gone up since the crackdown and you can now make significantly more for basic jobs while the globalist run panicked article after article how nobody is there to do the illegals jobs, crops wilt etc. etc. For example in SF a babysitter makes $20+/hour easily, you have to be extremely lucky to find somebody for $15. Many don't declare. That's actually not bad. Car mechanics and plumbers make great money here, often more than techies. If you have some vocational talent and are willing to put sweat in and learn such a skill you're basically set. The problem is not that there aren't enough jobs, the problem is that everybody has been duped into getting a degree in liberal arts or genders studies, then ends up in debt working minimum wage jobs. Learn how to fix HVACs, cell phones etc. and you're golden.

How come that chart looks like this?

That chart above could be the worst chart of 2018

We haven't even had a single year for those tax effects to work their way through the system. No conclusions can be drawn yet, good or bad.

Heraclitusstudent says

2 - There was a time when for example being a cook was a skill, now most jobs have been commoditized i.e. emptied from any skills and reduced to simple robotic gestures: you don't cook, you flip burgers. And anyone can do it. And there are hundreds of millions of people that are waiting to do it. The real restaurants that require real cooks are increasingly very few.

Pulling levers and pushing buttons and shoveling coal into a furnace aren't that skilled, but factory workers used to make enough to have a modest home, two cars, mom at home, TV, Junior's sports equipment and Marianne's Piano Lessons with a two week vacay at the Gulf/Lake.

What happened is that a return to mass immigration and lack of immigration enforcement flooded the labor pool.

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says

What happened is that a return to mass immigration and lack of immigration enforcement flooded the labor pool.

This.

Heraclitusstudent says

This is the kind of easy rationalizations that keeps people from seeing the picture in front of them.

1 - First, it requires to believe that 2/3 of the population of the US became lazy and stupid, and unable to adjust. Why is it suddenly the case?

That's an easy one, how's this for the picture to answer that question.



It's tough to be a productive worker when both thumbs are always busy.

Heraclitusstudent says

3 - not only these jobs are commoditized, they are increasingly automatized. Leaving less possibilities for people at the bottom.

After looking at that picture, are you still wondering why jobs are going that way?

Heraclitusstudent says

The top 10% get most of the gains.

Because the top 10% are doing the bulk of the productive work. Why shouldn't they be rewarded?

MrMagic says

It's tough to be a productive worker when both thumbs are always busy.

I read a story about how youngsters are not developing the muscles needed to hold a pencil because they are always on their devices!

MrMagic says

Revenues are up 9% from last year, where do revenues come from? Tax withholding on wages. Even though the lower withholding rates kicked in this year, which means the Feds get LESS income from income taxes, the revenues are still up 9%. If wages were dropping, like the OP claims, the revenue numbers would be in the minuses, even before the lower withholding rates

Ok, so we're on the same page with the revenues being up. Cool. You understand though that your withholdings don't change unless you make the changes, right? So let's say you start a job in 2016 and still have that same job. If you don't change your W4, your withholdings are exactly the same as they have always been in previous tax years regardless of the new tax plan.

The 9% increase is almost exclusively due to wages. Acting like less is being withheld from paychecks and that there was still a 9% increase in tax revenues is disingenuous. People are withholding the exact same amount as they would prior to the new tax plan. Income is up or more people are working. This is good stuff. To claim people are withholding less and the revenues are up is garbage. The fact remains we won't know how this all plays out until we pay all the people back that overpaid on their taxes. Which most do.

This is REALLY getting tiresome...

WookieMan says

If you don't change your W4, your withholdings are exactly the same as they have always been in previous tax years regardless of the new tax plan.

It's not your "withholdings" it's your "exemptions" that would stay the same. The withholding amount in 2018 dropped because the tax rates dropped with the new tax plan. This is why people started seeing more money in their paychecks in February, even though they didn't change their number of exemptions on their W-4. Lower tax rates.

Understand it yet?

WookieMan says

The 9% increase is almost exclusively due to wages. Acting like less is being withheld from paychecks and that there was still a 9% increase in tax revenues is disingenuous. People are withholding the exact same amount as they would prior to the new tax plan.

Ahhh geez, wrong again.... Lets see if this helps you understand where the additional revenues flowed into the treasury.

First, the 2017 withholding tables:



Now, the new 2018 withholding tables reflecting the tax cuts:



WookieMan says

To claim people are withholding less and the revenues are up is garbage.

They're not withholding less, they're paying less income taxes from each paycheck, so less money (revenues) gets forwarded to the Treasury each month by the employer. So, the employee gets more money in their paycheck, and the Treasury gets less, but still, the collections at the treasury is up 9% YOY even with the lower tax rates (collections).

The tax charts don't lie.

Patrick says

ome vocational talent and are willing to put sweat in and learn such a skill you're basically set.

I was watching a video on mobile home park investments. I think it was Sam Zell in the video who said "50 years ago, everyone had a house, so little demand for mobile homes. Today, EVERYONE IS POOR SO DEMAND FOR MOBILE HOMES IS GOING UP EVERY YEAR."

Then the video went on to pimp (pun intended) a mobile park for sex predators as an investment opportunity. Apparently these people cant find housing anywhere, so have to move into these special parks for felons. ^^Theres so much wrong with this

WookieMan says

The fact remains we won't know how this all plays out until we pay all the people back that overpaid on their taxes.

We know exactly how it plays out. It's printed on everyone weekly pay stub now. They see exactly how much tax was taken out. You don't need to wait until the end of the year to see that.

Unless they have a big change in deductions or exemptions this year, it should play out the same as last year. Less taxes are withheld each week now, and they'll pay a lower tax rate on their return next April to coincide with it. What might make a difference in what people get back is the higher standard deduction of $24K for a couple for 2018.

MrMagic says

Revenues are up 9% from last year, where do revenues come from? Tax withholding on wages. Even though the lower withholding rates kicked in this year, which means the Feds get LESS income from income taxes, the revenues are still up 9%. If wages were dropping, like the OP claims, the revenue numbers would be in the minuses, even before the lower withholding rates.

How much would revenues to the .Gov be up if the old, higher withholding tables were still active? Probably MORE than 9%.

You really should read articles before you comment on them. The OP said HOURLY wages are down. Individual earnings tax collections are up. Individual earnings are wages, salaries, dividends, interest, personal capital gains, and other income. Revenues for FY 2018 to date are 2,224,526,000,000 which is less than the first 8 months of 2015,2016,2017. Tax collections on individual earnings are up, but overall tax collections are down.

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/feds-collect-record-individual-income-taxes-through-may-still-run CNS is a very conservative news agency so don't bother with screaming libbie fake news.
Despite the record individual income tax collections, the federal government still ran a deficit of $532,241,000,000 over those same eight months, according to the Treasury statement.

The $2,224,526,000,000 in total tax collections through May included the record $1,143,141,000,000 in individual income taxes; the $123,707,000,000 in corporation income taxes; $753,437,000,000 in social insurance and retirement payroll taxes; $36,684,000,000 in unemployment insurance taxes; $2,878,000,000 in otehr retirement taxes; $55,695,000,000 in excise and gift taxes, $24,809,000,000 in customs duties; and $68,809,000,000 in miscellaneous receipts.

So riddle me this. If hourly wages are down, then where is the increase in tax revenue coming from? Did salaries jump suddenly and abruptly on a wide scale? Hmmm. I wonder why the stock market is barely staying even with huge buybacks? Anyone out there cashing out their stocks and taking profits? Hmm. Dividends up 15% to record high. First q 109 billion in dividends. Taxable dividends.

Might be more the the story. Just maybe.

MrMagic says

We know exactly how it plays out. It's printed on everyone weekly pay stub now. They see exactly how much tax was taken out. You don't need to wait until the end of the year to see that.

The middle class 89,000 to 140,000 will see an extra $22 per week in their paycheck on average from the tax cut. Wow a night out at mcdonalds for a family of 4.

bob2356 says

extra $22 per week in their paycheck on average from the tax cut. Wow a night out at mcdonalds for a family of 4.

Winning!

bob2356 says

You really should read articles before you comment on them.

Interesting, how a poster want to lecture another poster about financial matters after a post like this:

bob2356 says

I'm missing something here. 40 (24+7+9) identify as dem, 46 (11+6+19) idenify as rep and you say the poll is padded with dems. How does that work exaclty?

The way I learned math is that (11+6+19) = 36, but this is how math is taught in my state. Apparently it's taught differently in others....

MrMagic says

bob2356 says

I'm missing something here. 40 (24+7+9) identify as dem, 46 (11+6+19) idenify as rep and you say the poll is padded with dems. How does that work exaclty?

The way I learned math is that (11+6+19) = 36, but this is how math is taught in my state. Apparently it's taught differently in others....

Wow sniper/cic/ovacation/mrmagic/godonlyknowshowmanyalts you caught my math mistake. Serves me right for posting while doing other things. Unlike some posters I'm not going to change my name or quickly delete or edit the post/thread if I make a mistake or find I am wrong. . At least I understand the math, even if I made a quick number transposition. Want to go back to discussions on rates of change or even more fun changes in the rates of change again?

Maybe people might want to address the actual issue at hand or show how I am wrong on THIS subject. What a thought.

bob2356 says

So riddle me this. If hourly wages are down, then where is the increase in tax revenue coming from? Did salaries jump suddenly and abruptly on a wide scale? Hmmm. I wonder why the stock market is barely staying even with huge buybacks? Anyone out there cashing out their stocks and taking profits? Hmm. Dividends up 15% to record high. First q 109 billion in dividends. Taxable dividends.

Crickets chirping.

Hourly wages down, salaries really didn't change, unemployment rate hanging right at 4% all year. workforce participation didn't change, new tax tables collect LESS taxes. So what income increases are driving the increase in individual collections? Remind me again how much the tax cut is helping the 99%.

What about the deficit being up 23% YTD. When will the tax cut be wiping out the deficit? In another year there will be a trillion dollar deficit in a booming economy. A record that no one has ever achieved before or even gotten close to. What happened to the evils of deficits from the party of fiscal responsibility?

“The issue is the debt. People aren’t clamoring to invest in Greece today, If we don’t begin to deal with our debt and deficit in a serious way, we’re not going to have many options." Boehner 2012.

“The Speaker and I have been the adults in the room, arguing that we ought to do something about the nation’s most serious long-term problem of debt and deficit” Mcconnal 2012

I guess it's not a serious problem any more. MAGA.

bob2356 says

Hourly wages down, salaries really didn't change,

Look who's back to show us more awesome math skills, and wrong assumptions.

You should really read the WHOLE thread before posting additional nonsense.

MrMagic says

From the bea tables:

MrMagic says

bob2356 says

Hourly wages down, salaries really didn't change,

Look who's back to show us more awesome math skills, and wrong assumptions.

You should really read the WHOLE thread before posting additional nonsense.

Personal income up 2% fiscal year 2018 up less than 1% since the tax cut as per the BEA table Like I said really didn't change. Average payroll tax collection decrease under the new law 2%. Ok where is the 9% growth in individual income tax collections coming from? Feel free to provide the CORRECT assumptions. Not that it will ever happen.

Let me give you some hints. Before every tax cut there is a drop in revenues and a spike in revenues afterwards that lasts a short time, almost always less than a year. Tax cuts tale a long time to pass and people have plenty of time to plan. Look up the words deferred income and accelerated deductions. Duh Yuh think? Add in big dividends and taking profits on stocks from the spike in corporate profits. Oh wait. those things aren't on the income chart. Here is a neat statistical trick dearly beloved by the laffler fanatics. Only look at the year before a tax cut and the year after. Voila, magic. Tax cuts raise revenue. Nothing to do with people gaming the tax cut to pay the least taxes at all. Not even a tiny bit. The problem is that the magic disappears after the magic period ends.
www.youtube.com/embed/YWyCCJ6B2WE

bob2356 says

Ok where is the 9% growth in individual income tax collections coming from? Feel free to provide the CORRECT assumptions. Not that it will ever happen.

MrMagic says

OK, how's this?



https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2018-07/54126-MBR.pdf

MrMagic says

You should really read the WHOLE thread before posting additional nonsense.

MrMagic says

MrMagic says

OK, how's this?

Trolling, trolling.

We established individual income taxes at least 20 posts ago. You didn't catch that some how? Maybe you should read the WHOLE thread before posting additional nonsense. The question is what part of individual income taxes is driving the 9% increase if wages are only slightly up, unemployment didn't go down, and wage tax collections are lower. But you knew that when you posted additional nonsense. More trolling to come Watch this space.

bob2356 says

The question is what part of individual income taxes is driving the 9% increase if wages are only slightly up,

MrMagic says

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2018-07/54126-MBR.pdf

Need help reading?

Pulling levers and pushing buttons and shoveling coal into a furnace aren't that skilled, but factory workers used to make enough to have a modest home, two cars, mom at home, TV, Junior's sports equipment and Marianne's Piano Lessons with a two week vacay at the Gulf/Lake.

What happened is that a return to mass immigration and lack of immigration enforcement flooded the labor pool.

Also consider the entry of women en mass into the labor force. The economy adjusted somewhat to a two-income household.

MrMagic says

Need help reading?

Need help understanding the question? Apparently so. I used small words and typed very slowly so I don't know where to go from here to make it more comprehensible. .