patrick.net

So you're good with US agricultural subsidies?

HEYYOU says

How many Socialist Republicans are getting handouts from Trump/Republicans?

This is a difficult subject for the Rs. They're supposed to be against protectionism, but Trump is throwing up trade barriers and threatening more. He's using the excuse that his opponents are doing same, but the fact is the US has protections in place.

TrumpingTits says

This means that EVERYBODY who trades goods with us is pretty much fucked in any serious trade war. Especially Canada.

This is definitely a Trumpism. To hell with fair trade, I'm bigger and stronger and I'll take what I want. Well outside the usual D v R debate.

LastMan says

This is a difficult subject for the Rs. They're supposed to be against protectionism, but Trump is throwing up trade barriers and threatening more. He's using the excuse that his opponents are doing same, but the fact is the US has protections in place.

It was actually the Republican Congress that did away with the Northeast Diary Compacts (and other State Government led subsidies and price control agreements) in 2002.

Those Democrat-dominated states loved it. Minnesota is another Big Agra subsidizing state, totally Democrat, the only other state besides Hawaii (I think) to vote for Mondale over Reagan.

LastMan says

This is definitely a Trumpism. To hell with fair trade, I'm bigger and stronger and I'll take what I want. Well outside the usual D v R debate.

Hi, Leon Joey JoJo Tatupu?

We need protectionism now.
China is not playing fair, they subsidize their business and undercut ours till we are out of business.

China today has us by the balls. It’s great to have Trump put a stop to this madness.


LastMan says

HEYYOU says

How many Socialist Republicans are getting handouts from Trump/Republicans?

This is a difficult subject for the Rs. They're supposed to be against protectionism, but Trump is throwing up trade barriers and threatening more. He's using the excuse that his opponents are doing same, but the fact is the US has protections in place.

TrumpingTits says

This means that EVERYBODY who trades goods with us is pretty much fucked in any serious trade war. Especially Canada.

This is definitely a Trumpism. To hell with fair trade, I'm bigger and stronger and I'll take what I want. Well outside the usual D v R debate.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

It was actually the Republican Congress that did away with the Northeast Diary Compacts (and other State Government led subsidies and price control agreements) in 2002.

Those Democrat-dominated states loved it. Minnesota is another Big Agra subsidizing state, totally Democrat, the only other state besides Hawaii (I think) to vote for Mondale over Reagan.

Wow, what a great strawman. Nice job. The question the table is federal subsidies in 2018 not state subsidies in 2002.

I say let the republicans end welfare as long as they start at the DOD and DOA.

FortWayne says

China today has us by the balls. It’s great to have Trump put a stop to this madness.

Earth to ft wayne, we are talking about Canada.here. One would think a great MAGA leader would go after the country that is 90% of the problem first then use that success to tackle whatever is left. One would think.

bob2356 says

Earth to ft wayne, we are talking about Canada.here. One would think a great MAGA leader would go after the country that is 90% of the problem first then use that success to tackle whatever is left. One would think.

Trump's priorities aren't surprising. Trudeau is a left leaning pretty boy whose politics focus on SWJ type issues. Jinping is a funny looking strongman dictator.

I say let the republicans end welfare as long as they start at the DOD and DOA.

No problem with that, as long as they continue and end welfare for Wall St (like GE), Corporations (Like Tesla) along with traditional welfare for the masses.

bob2356 says

Wow, what a great strawman. Nice job. The question the table is federal subsidies in 2018 not state subsidies in 2002.

And as explained, the Canadian Tariffs are many times more than they need to offset the subsidies. Nor does it explain the total ban of US Banks to operate in Canada, the Media & Entertainment protectionism, Timber, etc.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

And as explained, the Canadian Tariffs are many times more than they need to offset the subsidies.

https://www.wisconsinagriculturist.com/dairy/does-canada-really-charge-270-tariff-milk

'U.S. producers, who also benefit from subsidies and tariffs, exported about C$296 million ($227 million) in dairy goods to Canada last year, Statistics Canada data show. Canadian producers sold C$148.1 million in milk products in the opposite direction, a 2-to-1 U.S. trade surplus. It’s a trade gap the Canadian ambassador to Washington, David MacNaughton, frequently cites.

“Overall, the U.S. is more restrictive,” said Peter Clark, a trade consultant and president of Ottawa-based Grey, Clark Shih & Associates, who has done research for the Dairy Farmers of Canada.'

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

And as explained, the Canadian Tariffs are many times more than they need to offset the subsidies. Nor does it explain the total ban of US Banks to operate in Canada, the Media & Entertainment protectionism, Timber, etc.

Then why bring up state governments in 2002? Grasping at straw(men)s?

LastMan says

Trump's priorities aren't surprising. Trudeau is a left leaning pretty boy whose politics focus on SWJ type issues. Jinping is a funny looking strongman dictator.

So problems with Canada trade are equivalent to problems with china trade? By what a factor of 100 to 1 or so? ROFLOL.

LastMan says

“Overall, the U.S. is more restrictive,” said Peter Clark, a trade consultant and president of Ottawa-based Grey, Clark Shih & Associates, who has done research for the Dairy Farmers of Canada.'

That in no way disproves the existence of massive anti-Trade Canadian Tariffs.

Of course a Canadian Consulting Firm that depends on being hired by Canadian Industry, is going to present the US side as worse.

bob2356 says

Then why bring up state governments in 2002? Grasping at straw(men)s?

The part you quoted doesn't mention state government. However, many Agra Subsidies ARE State Level, and the Federal Government can't do much about them.

Everything you quoted is an undisputed fact of Canadian Protectionism. Canadians have never allowed US Banks in Canada, before or after NAFTA. That isn't Free Trade, and given the huge weight of FIRE industries in the modern economy, must be addressed. It's a far bigger deal than Lumber or Diary.

Canada only has a handful of banks that are stringently and radically protected by a host of regulations that completely insulates them from Foreign (and as many Canadians claim, new domestic upstart) competition. One of them is the "Widely Held" rule that prevents anybody from owning more than 10% of the handful of Canadian National Banks, making any buyout impossible. Canada has a similar 10% "widely-held" law for Telecoms as well.

But the converse is NOT True - TD (Toronto Dominion as in TD Ameritrade) is very active in the USA as are other Canadian Banks (they're also very strong in the Caribbean).

Canada pretends to be totally Free Trade, but in reality has plenty of "Non-Tariff Trade Barriers" that keep out foreign competition.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

bob2356 says

Then why bring up state governments in 2002? Grasping at straw(men)s?

The part you quoted doesn't mention state government. However, many Agra Subsidies ARE State Level, and the Federal Government can't do much about them.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

It was actually the Republican Congress that did away with the Northeast Diary Compacts (and other State Government led subsidies and price control agreements) in 2002.

Those Democrat-dominated states loved it. Minnesota is another Big Agra subsidizing state, totally Democrat, the only other state besides Hawaii (I think) to vote for Mondale over Reagan

You threw out the meaningless straw man about 2002 not me. Which statement is true? They contradict each other.

bob2356 says

You threw out the meaningless straw man about 2002 not me. Which statement is true? They contradict each other.

What meaningless strawman? The Fact that States provide subsidies and breaks to Agra beyond the Federal Government?

Meanwhile, Canada lost around 52,000 jobs last Month That's not a Typo.
https://patrick.net/post/1318804/2018-09-09-canada-in-jobs-freefall

bob2356 says

So problems with Canada trade are equivalent to problems with china trade? By what a factor of 100 to 1 or so? ROFLOL.

It's not about the trade problems. It's about Trump's personality; who he can relate to and who he thinks he can bully.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Canada pretends to be totally Free Trade, but in reality has plenty of "Non-Tariff Trade Barriers" that keep out foreign competition.

Canada doesn't pretend to be totally Free Trade. It has trade barriers the same as the US and every other nation. Trump is pretending that the only barriers are Canadian. Perhaps the trade negotiators should get to work and make a deal that both sides can live with, without interference from Trump.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Meanwhile, Canada lost around 52,000 jobs last Month That's not a Typo.

But it is cherry picking. Link from the Patnet post.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wacky-canadian-economy-lost-51-600-jobs-led-by-ontario-plunge-1.1134558

'So far in 2018, the economy has shed 14,600 jobs, but the number masks a 97,300 gain in full-time jobs. Part-time employment is down by 111,900 this year.'

LastMan says

It's not about the trade problems. It's about Trump's personality; who he can relate to and who he thinks he can bully.

Anybody who doesn't bully Trudeau is letting an easy victory go by. I say Trump should squeeze him mercilessly. Elect a wimp, get wimpy outcomes.

Also, I'm sick of people telling me to go easy on the Euros and Canadians when all they do is criticize, delay, object, and underfund their mutual commitments.

LastMan says

But it is cherry picking. Link from the Patnet post.

I think you're cherry picking:

The nation’s largest province lost 80,100 jobs in August, all part-time, the biggest decline for Ontario since 2009. Nationally, the economy lost 92,000 part-time workers, though a 40,400 gain in full-time employment is one sign the labour market is firmer than the headline number suggests.

Obviously August was a disaster. You can't look at the whole year and but dismiss the last month being a godawful disaster, it's more a sign of things to come. We're winning the trade war: Spooked Canadian companies are shedding workers in anticipation of no NAFTA deal.

TDS sufferers also need to consider how wrong they've been on the Election, North Korea, the Economy, etc. and implement some self-doubt.

Trudeau better start making concessions!

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

We're winning the trade war: Spooked Canadian companies are shedding workers in anticipation of no NAFTA deal.

You're making assumptions. Part time tourist/summer jobs tend to end in August. There could be other explanations. You have to admit, the strong growth in full time positions, including in August, is positive. More observation time is needed to tell the full story.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Anybody who doesn't bully Trudeau is letting an easy victory go by. I say Trump should squeeze him mercilessly. Elect a wimp, get wimpy outcomes.

Everyone loves a bully. Especially the ones that pick on their closest allies. Trump should be firing his NAFTA negotiation team, as he clearly has no faith in them to make a good deal without his strongman tactics.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

What meaningless strawman? The Fact that States provide subsidies and breaks to Agra beyond the Federal Government?

So which is it? Did the feds eliminate state subsidies in 2002 or not? You need to pick a story and stay with it,

LastMan says

Everyone loves a bully. Especially the ones that pick on their closest allies. Trump should be firing his NAFTA negotiation team, as he clearly has no faith in them to make a good deal without his strongman tactics.

.
Canada is half - half - of the expected NATO expenditure of 2% GDP on Defense at 0.99% of GDP. Canada and Germany, as wealthy countries, should be contributing in excess of 2% as a good example for others. Currently, Canada is in the bottom five of the 28 NATO members in terms of Defense GDP spending. Less than Germany, Canada, Italy. FFS, we're gonna end up building icebreakers and more ships because Canada won't commit enough to it's own Arctic Defense.

The days of Europe and Canada slapping all kinds of tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers like the anti-Free Trade Canadian Telecom and Banking hyperprotectionism, underfunding mutual commitments, while criticizing America and telling the world to deal with themselves instead of US as a 'better alternative' are over.

Start acting like a friend and ally, there's no more Cold War and no more reason for all these subsidies and underwriting of your trade at our expense.

bob2356 says

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

What meaningless strawman? The Fact that States provide subsidies and breaks to Agra beyond the Federal Government?

So which is it? Did the feds eliminate state subsidies in 2002 or not? You need to pick a story and stay with it,

What story? States still subsidize Agra. The Multistate Diary Compact ended, but there are god knows how many subsidies among the various states.

Here's NYS, just for Vineyards, Hopeyards, and Wine & Beer enterprises:
https://esd.ny.gov/nysbeveragebiz/permitsincentives.html

Do you deny this?

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Canada is half - half - of the expected NATO expenditure of 2% GDP on Defense at 0.99% of GDP.

Clearly automotive trade wars will rectify this.

LastMan says

Clearly automotive trade wars will rectify this.

Sure will, we already got 45% set aside for $14-16/hr jobs in North American Auto Manufacturing Jobs.

No more Canadian importing Euro and Chinese parts, assembling them, then importing them to the US Tariff free as a way to help Euros and Chinese dodge tariffs at the expense of US Jobs and Taxes. 85% NAM parts is the new standard.

At a minimum , Canada must open it's Banking, Media, and Telecom to competition.

Trudeau and Freeland thought Trump would never complete a deal with Mexico first. Their "Town Socialist" arrogance got them and Canada into Trouble. Now their options are limited.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Sure will, we already got 45% set aside for $14-16/hr jobs in North American Auto Manufacturing Jobs.

And that will increase Canadian spending on NATO? You'll have to explain this leap of logic.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

No more Canadian importing Euro and Chinese parts, assembling them, then importing them to the US Tariff free.

Proof would be appreciated. Perhaps I should claim that the US is importing Euro and Chinese parts, and then importing them to Canada and Mexico tariff free.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

At a minimum , Canada must open it's Banking, Media, and Telecom to competition.

Clearly both you and Trump have no confidence in the US NAFTA team to achieve this via negotiations. Bully tactics and threats are necessary.

LastMan says

And that will increase Canadian spending on NATO? You'll have to explain this leap of logic.

Straw Man, I never said they were related. What plans does Trudeau have to get NATO spending up to snuff?

LastMan says

Proof would be appreciated. Perhaps I should claim that the US is importing Euro and Chinese parts, and then importing them to Canada and Mexico tariff free.

And LightSaber is concerned:

“North American” content required to qualify for NAFTA is set at between 50-60 percent under Chapter 4. With this low bar, many PRC goods and services can be regarded as Canadian products. It is conceivable that a PRC-made airliner equipped with North American origin engines, avionics, hydraulics, etc., will qualify as a “domestic” North American product if it entered Canada duty free for final assembly. Thus, Canada can demand NAFTA preferences for Chinese products and services.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/344621-china-hopes-to-use-canada-as-trojan-horse-into-us-market
(Author is a Chinese-Canadian Professor and expert on China-Canada relations.)

That's planes, as this is about China's special status potentially endangering US-CAN aerospace/high tech relationships, but the cars are already there:

Around 80 per cent of cars made in Canada are exported, with most of them flowing across the southern border.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tariffs-explainer-the-house-1.4726668
The reason the mostly Asian and European cars exported to the US are made in Canada is because of the old, obsolete, pre-China Manufacturing Powerhouse NAFTA rules Canada exploits. Canada as a NAFTA member acts a backdoor to get around US tariffs on non-NAM parts.

Mexico and the US have agreed to 75-85% NAM Parts. By the way, Trump needs no approval from Congress, only a 90 day notice before new rules take effect on NAFTA. Congress would have to come up with a 2/3 veto-proof override to stop.it from happening, and the new rules are a winner for the US Working Class and very hard for Canadian and Neoliberal Lobbyists to fight.

LastMan says

Clearly both you and Trump have no confidence in the US NAFTA team to achieve this via negotiations. Bully tactics and threats are necessary.

It was already achieved with Mexico, which was actually thought to be the tougher nut to crack.

What happened was Ottawa Snobs, who thought Trump was tilting at windmills by trying to "divide and conquer" by focusing on Mexico first, and gloating about it, ended up getting outsmarted and outfought. Now they're crying "Mean Bully!"

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Straw Man, I never said they were related. What plans does Trudeau have to get NATO spending up to snuff?

You brought up NATO in 26. Posts 28 and 29 sure make it look like you think they're related.

The Tam article doesn't prove your point that China is selling cars or part via Canada into the US. The author's opinion is that China wants to and is making demands on Canada to allow them to do so. Even the title makes it clear "China may use Canada as 'Trojan horse' into US market". Note the word 'may'. I'll point out in post 29 you saidTwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

No more Canadian importing Euro and Chinese parts, assembling them, then importing them to the US Tariff free as a way to help Euros and Chinese dodge tariffs at the expense of US Jobs and Taxes. 85% NAM parts is the new standard.

you said it is happening, but have proved that it is not.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Mexico and the US have agreed to 75-85% NAM Parts.

And from what I've read, Canadians agree with the 75-85% NAM parts.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

By the way, Trump needs no approval from Congress, only a 90 day notice before new rules take effect on NAFTA.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/28/trump-nafta-canada-mexico-trade-deal-758572
"Trump notified lawmakers in 2017 of his intention to renegotiate NAFTA, not strike a bilateral trade deal with Mexico. So, unless Canada is brought into the pact, he could be challenged on whether he has actually met the requirements of the TPA legislation, said Bill Reinsch, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies."

I'm not sure whether Trump needs congress or not, but I don't think things are as clear cut as you believe.

LastMan says

You brought up NATO in 26. Posts 28 and 29 sure make it look like you think they're related.

I brought it up in the context of Canada wanting to continue special Cold War era beneficial economic treatment, while not following through on commitments to security obligations.

LastMan says

you said it is happening, but have proved that it is not.

Sorry?

LastMan says

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Mexico and the US have agreed to 75-85% NAM Parts.

And from what I've read, Canadians agree with the 75-85% NAM parts.

Until recently, it was. I suspect that's Freeland backpedaling as fast as she possibly can, given her desperation at having messed up so badly.
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/commodities-business-pmn/agriculture-commodities-business-pmn/nafta-sticking-points-a-list-of-impediments-holding-up-a-deal

LastMan says

"Trump notified lawmakers in 2017 of his intention to renegotiate NAFTA, not strike a bilateral trade deal with Mexico. So, unless Canada is brought into the pact, he could be challenged on whether he has actually met the requirements of the TPA legislation, said Bill Reinsch, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies."

I'm not sure whether Trump needs congress or not, but I don't think things are as clear cut as you believe.

They are. Neoliberal Free Traders wanted outsourcing from the USA as fast as possible, and figured the trend would always be for outsourcing and deindustrialization, so under the bill that approved the NAFTA Treaties, when the President renegotiates the terms, Congress has only 90 days to stop it. This was envisioned as a way to stop the Rustbelt congressmen from stopping it.

Unfortunately, with a populist President, Congress now has to pass a bill to stop it, which the President can veto, therefore Congress must get a veto-proof 2/3 majority in 90 days or it's the law.

Frankly, Telecoms, Banking, and Media are more important than Diary. That's where much bigger money is today.

Canada will have to open itself to trade in some of those areas or no deal.

it's no problem for the USA, we're not as dependent on Exports, and 93% of our exports go elsewhere in the world. But 80% of Canada's exports go to the US, and Canada is more dependent on Exports as a percentage of their GDP overall, than we are.


What's funny is when NAFTA renegotiations first began, Canada's talk was of Gender Rules, Native American Rules, and requiring the US to restrict right-to-work rules. A whole new set of rules and restrictions, to weaken America's competitive advantage and allow Trudeau to posture as Defender Of Social Justice. Now they're fumbling for any kind of angle.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/nafta-must-include-gender-equality-protection-trudeau-says/article36227621/
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/canada-demands-us-end-right-to-work-laws-as-part-of-nafta-talks/article36160015/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/indigenous/afn-nafta-chapter-backing-1.4359070

Trudeau really dropped the soap in the prison shower. He came in so brazen and bold, arrogant and condescending. From his and Freeland's attitude and behavior over the Trump Administration, they are going to have a helluva time. Unlike Kim or Merkel, all the cards are in Trump's hands, and it's actually beneficial for him to screw Trudeau over as hard as possible as a warning to opponents at home and abroad, and to get Canadians motivated to change leadership.

But, if you watch the CBC, you'd think if Trudeau is in charge.

Canadian view of how Trudeau messed up NAFTA negotiations:
www.youtube.com/embed/9LQRp72dI1I

"But in the United States’ troubled dairy heartland, where low prices are forcing farm after farm into bankruptcy, many producers have taken a much different view lately — they’re actually embracing supply management as a potential saviour."

"Not only could supply management ensure that oversupply does not depress prices, it would render unnecessary the bailouts governments periodically pay to dairy farmers, say American proponents of the system."

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/growing-number-of-u-s-dairy-farmers-look-to-supply-management-to-solve-crisis-as-trump-urges-canada-to-kill-it

"Geopolitically, the PRC aims to detach Canada from its alliance with the U.S. and other allies and secure Canada’s acquiescence to the PRC aggression against neighboring states like South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, India, the South China Sea, etc. PRC routinely tightly link foreign policy with trade to punish countries."

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/344621-china-hopes-to-use-canada-as-trojan-horse-into-us-market

Good thing Trump isn't doing anything to alienate Canada.

LastMan says

Good thing Trump isn't doing anything to alienate Canada.

Freeland and Trudeau, as I explained earlier, came into the NAFTA renegotiations with all kinds of SJW demands they knew would piss off Trump and be unacceptable generally. There was no way any Republican, not even Wimpy Jeb or Cucky Kasich, would accept any of those proposals, not least the impossibility of ending Right-to-Work across many states - the Mexicans were skeptical as well.

I think Trudeau WANTS to flip to the PRC.

He and Freedland have antagonized Trump, hoping either he'd reject NAFTA renegotiations entirely and leave the status quo (gain for Trudeau) OR, give Trudeau and excuse to leave while blaming everything on Trump.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Frankly, Telecoms, Banking, and Media are more important than Diary.

I'm sure Joe Sixpack in Terre Haute, IN and Decatur, IL are ecstatic to hear that Trump is working to get the 1%er bank owners the ability to rape Canadians as well as Americans. Nothing says "populist" like fighting for Wall St. and Big Banks!

Rocketmanjoe says

I must have missed your proof that the US pays 300% tariffs on diary exported to Canada? Can you point me to it?

The answer is sort of. Canada has a 270% tariff on SOME dairy products after they reach a quota. Most categories that are subject to tariffs never reach the quota. Canada is the third largest market for US dairy exports after Mexico and SE Asia. Number 4 is china.
http://checkyourfact.com/2018/06/11/fact-check-canada-270-percent-tariff-dairy/
http://www.usdec.org/research-and-data/market-information/top-charts-x1507

Twoscoops doesn't need any stinking proof. It's the sjw internationalist world government deep state libruls fault. That is all that needs to be said.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

He and Freedland have antagonized Trump, hoping either he'd reject NAFTA renegotiations entirely and leave the status quo (gain for Trudeau) OR, give Trudeau and excuse to leave while blaming everything on Trump.

Now there's some paranoia. The real explanation is that their base loves the SJW stuff and Trudeau/Freeland thought they could use NAFTA to promote it. Not smart. Apparently this is enough in your world to alienate an ally and force Canada to shift its trade to other markets.