patrick.net

socal2 says

Basically $99/month to have a full time chauffer. No one in the world is close to what Tesla has already accomplished here. GM just announced they are bailing out of Cruz and Waymo is basically locked into geofenced areas that were heavily mapped by LIDAR.

$1,200/yr? That's gas for the average commuter with sedans. They have 14 gallon tanks tops. That's 2 fill ups and 400-450 miles or just under 1k/mo. That's not including hybrids. All this done in under 5 minutes one time a month.

EV owners don't value time. It's not green. They're fast on acceleration increasing a risk of an accident. Cool. My niece 16 has a Prius and doesn't fill up for 2 months. She spends less than $200/mo on gas. The up front cost of EV's is 1,000% not worth it in the long run. You've got to change my mind Socal besides it's fun to drive. Which I don't disagree with that.

Eric Holder says

Reality says

workload issue with driving a manual

Yeah, some back braking labor, LOL. What's next: the unberable burden of steering with your hands?... Wait, I think we already starting to hear that.

I loved it for sure and it wasn't hard for me. You learn a lot about driving doing it. Mine was a POS 4 cylinder. 205k miles and no new clutch. One brake change. 1/8th the cost of a Tesla out the door. Not sure how that's not winning. My gas and maintenance was covered before I dumped the car. Spent probably a 1/2 at least overall on what a Tesla sedan costs.

Just because the market "seems" to be changing doesn't mean it is. Power supply is a massive factor that hasn't hit yet. Give it 3-5 years. Our grid is in a bad place and it's at the brink. Especially in CA. Put this in the predictions thread. The fan is spinning the shit just hasn't hit it yet.

WookieMan says

EV owners don't value time.

I absolutely value time. Tesla's Full Self Driving is going to free up millions of hours for commuters all over the world to be doing more productive things then hanging onto a steering wheel and driving in grinding traffic.

socal2 says

WookieMan says

EV owners don't value time.

I absolutely value time. Tesla's Full Self Driving is going to free up millions of hours for commuters all over the world to be doing more productive things then hanging onto a steering wheel and driving in grinding traffic.

Because you live somewhere with traffic and high cost of living? I can live in the country for 1/5 the cost. No traffic. And have access to the same things. I can drive with my knee. I don't operate electronics or anything when driving. I don't want to kill myself or another human based on electronic sensors. My eye work pretty damn well.

How many speeding tickets and accidents you have? I've yet to meet a single human that's NOT been in an accident or had a speeding ticket.

Eric Holder says

Yeah, some back braking labor, LOL. What's next: the unberable burden of steering with your hands?... Wait, I think we already starting to hear that.

This shit annoys me to no end. It takes one slowpoke to create a long line of ACC-equipped cars to line up behind it and chug along 10mph below speed limit with drivers fingerfucking their phones oblivios to the fact.

You are correct on both. The lane-keeping-assist feature is getting quite good too. ACC+LKAS combined can be quite handy when driving long distance on highways: enabling the driver to drive much longer because the constant micro-adjustment to steering wheel (to keep the car centered in the lane despite small bumps in the road surface) would become unnecessary; I used to get tired after a couple hours of driving before getting the MDX a decade ago, one of the first implementations of both (only available on the top trim level that model year, as part of a $15k package, when average new car price was $32k); with those features, I became capable of driving 8+ hours at a time. Also handy in stop-and-go rush hour traffic: not having to touch any foot pedal at all. After having that car for a couple months, I predicted the combination would become available on every newly released car within 5 years simply because the (combined) feature is so great! Toyota and Honda beat my prediction by 1-2 years, and making it free! The sensors are also much much cheaper now thanks to mass production scaling.

A line of ACC-activated cars lining up actually makes passing them easier: they are predictable, and there wouldn't be an asshole suddenly speeding up to prevent you from passing when you are on the other side of the dotted median.

socal2 says

But it is nothing like Tesla's Full Self Driving that can literally drive you door to door through busy city streets and now navigate and park itself in busy COSTCO parking lots.

Basically $99/month to have a full time chauffer. No one in the world is close to what Tesla has already accomplished here. GM just announced they are bailing out of Cruz and Waymo is basically locked into geofenced areas that were heavily mapped by LIDAR.

LOL! No. Costco has some of the largest parking spaces: each space is double-lined between cars/spaces. Tesla's FSD even in its latest version would easily crash a car multiple times each week. It's not a full-time-chauffer any more than you can ride in a pink jeep driven by a 5yo girl who has had the toy for a few weeks: yes, she can go around obstacles in the yard and you can praise her driving skills. She is not quite even at a learner's permit holder's level in terms of driving on real streets with a supervising adult sitting in the passenger seat. Tesla makes it quite clear: it doesn't allow the owner/driver to sit in the passenger seat while letting FSD drive the car solely on its own. Maybe Tesla should install a duplicate brake pedal on the passenger side, so each driver can be a driver's ed teacher being able to stop the car on the passenger side just to prove FSD can drive at least as good as a beginner driver's ed student.

Waymo's approach is far more responsible than Tesla's.

socal2 says

Tesla's Full Self Driving is going to free up millions of hours for commuters all over the world to be doing more productive things then hanging onto a steering wheel and driving in grinding traffic.

"FSD will be able to fully drive itself next year" has been the mantra for almost a decade! and it's still "next year." If/when the technology finally arrives, self-driving will be available on ICE cars, just like ICE cars can also accelerate fast enough to be fun. My ICE car has quicker 0-60 and quarter mile times than Tesla Model Y LR dual-motor, and cost about the same when I bought it despite having far better interior, far better UI, far better ride quality and better architecture. Now it's quite clear battery EV's can be made very cheaply, in the range of $15k USD for making an econobox similar to Tesla Model Y (single-motor version). That may indeed have its appeals in markets like China, India and Mexico. However, battery EV's can not deliver energy density (range + quick refill), collision/puncture safety or low-temperature environment operability anywhere near what ICE cars can deliver. Then there is the issue of service longevity. Will Chinese, Indians or Mexicans pay for another battery EV in 8 years after their first one's battery dies of old age? quite unlike an ICE car that can keep operating for at least 2x to 3x as many years. Is a brand new battery EV car comparable to the Model Y (single-motor) at $15k and 8yr service life really price competitive to a 3-5yo ICE car that has 10-20 years of service life left? Seems to me the utter disappearance of cheap new cars in the US already answered the question: people would rather have a used Lexus or Toyota instead of a brand new POS. ICE cars that last decades through several owners is also far less polluting than EV's that last only 8yrs each, and eventually becoming more affordable in the 2nd and 3rd decade its service life than even cheap brand new EV's (old used EV's don't deliver mobility function but only fire hazard).

WookieMan says

I don't want to kill myself or another human based on electronic sensors. My eye work pretty damn well.

Didn't you say you sometimes have health issues impacting your driving?

Wouldn't this technology be a lifesaver and super convenient for your personal freedom and autonomy if your health condition got worse preventing you from driving all together?

There are millions and millions of older, sick and young people where this technology could be a game changer.

The version I have in my car already drives better and safer than my teenage daughter.

Reality says

LOL! No. Costco has some of the largest parking spaces: each space is double-lined between cars/spaces. Tesla's FSD even in its latest version would easily crash a car multiple times each week.

Huh? The Costco's in my area are some of the busiest and tightest lots around.

There are hundreds of videos on Youtube and X showing Tesla's totally handling busy parking lots with people running around everywhere. I've experienced it myself.

If Teslas were crashing every week, all the Lib Elon haters in the Media would be trumpeting it to the moon and back.

socal2 says

Huh? The Costco's in my area are some of the busiest and tightest lots around.

Check your Costco parking lot again: there is a rectangular zone between every two adjacent parking spaces, unlike a simple line between parking spaces in almost all other parking lots. It's there because Costco sells goods in large packages that may need more width to load into the back seats of sedans.

There are hundreds of videos on Youtube and X showing Tesla's totally handling busy parking lots with people running around everywhere. I've experienced it myself.

There are / were hundreds of videos on Youtube showing people sleeping in their Tesla's while the car drives itself on the highway. It's called selective editing and survivor bias: the cases where the driver got killed or the car getting into crashes don't get uploaded. Also, many brands of ICE cars also have self-parking option; sometimes it works, even working very well, but sometimes don't as the car gets confused by un-anticipated scenario.

If Teslas were crashing every week, all the Lib Elon haters in the Media would be trumpeting it to the moon and back.

Crashes are not happening multiple times every week because the drivers are actively intervening half a dozen times or more every week. That means Tesla FSD is not a chauffer like you promoted/lied, but more like a beginner driver's Ed student requiring the driver's Ed teacher intervene to avoid accidents, just like I characterized quite accurately. A chauffer is worth $30-50k/yr, but a beginner driver's ED student has to pay $200/hr to the teacher doing the active intervention!

socal2 says

Wouldn't this technology be a lifesaver and super convenient for your personal freedom and autonomy if your health condition got worse preventing you from driving all together?

There are millions and millions of older, sick and young people where this technology could be a game changer.

If/when the technology finally works, wouldn't it be better for the same technology to be applied on a car that has the range that wouldn't leave the passenger stranded in the middle of winter? Unless the goal is liquidating the vulnerable members of society Nazi-style. Wouldn't it be better for such a service vehicle to have the load factor to serve people most of the time instead of spending half its time charging and driving to/from a charge station? Wouldn't it be better for such a vehicle to have decades of service life so that even people with limited means can afford used ones after the vehicle's first decade? In other words, the same technology would be more beneficially applied on an ICE vehicle than on a battery EV.

I'm not at all a technophobe. I spent $15k price premium (when average new car price was $32k) when buying the 2014 MDX in order to get the ACC+LKAS combo when it was only available on the top trim/option package that model year as the technology was just coming out (IIRC, the only other vehicle offering the combo that year was Mercedes E-class). My thinking was: if it could allow me to take both hands off the steering for a few seconds to open a water bottle on a long road trip, that was worthwhile and I was willing to pay up to help technology/manufacturing scaling. After owning that car for a couple months, the result far exceeded my expectations: the reduced work load of not having to make micro-adjustment to keep the vehicle centered in the lane (despite road surface imperfections) all the time enable me to drive 8+ hours at a time instead of getting tired after only a couple hours. Battery EV however was a whole different ball game for me: being a physics major and EECS major (electrical-engineering and computer-science), I understood the energy density issue and fire risk issue, just like I was never dumb enough to sleep in any vehicle with driving aid (when I was the driver). When my girlfriend at the time complained why the MDX was beeping and cutting out ACC+LKAS after the driver's fingers were absent from the steering wheel for about 15 seconds, unlike Tesla's at the time, I said that was to keep you alive!

The version I have in my car already drives better and safer than my teenage daughter.

LOL! Shall we fill in the info that your teenage daughter doesn't have a full driver's license?

Reality says

Check your Costco parking lot again: there is a rectangular zone between every two adjacent parking spaces, unlike a simple line between parking spaces in almost all other parking lots. It's there because Costco sells goods in large packages that may need more width to load into the back seats of sedans.

It is not the size of the parking spaces. It is the sheer number of people walking around with carts that makes it impressive to see Tesla FSD safely and smoothly navigate around all that pedestrian traffic.

Reality says

That means Tesla FSD is not a chauffer like you promoted/lied, but more like a beginner driver's Ed student requiring the driver's Ed teacher intervene to avoid accidents,

I said it will be like a chauffer within 5 years. Probably sooner.

The rate of improvements from Version 11 to 12 and now version 13 that is coming out this month is incredible.

Reply back if you ever get the opportunity to try the latest version of FSD in person. Otherwise, it's a waste of time debating with a guy that has no first hand experience with the technology. I have about 5 thousand miles logged on FSD now with multiple drives to Los Angeles and back with very few to no safety interventions.

It is hard for me to not believe what I can see and experience with my own eyes!

Reality says

My thinking was: if it could allow me to take both hands off the steering for a few seconds to open a water bottle on a long road trip, that was worthwhile

I agree - I have an ICE vehicle, but if I'm doing 12+ hours of driving, I'll activate the lane assist and ACC. I have discovered that lane assist gets confused when highway markings are very bright/retroreflective like they are in TX. The car will follow the marking on the right when approaching an exit gore. I think these things are calibrated for northern markets, where reflectors and retroreflective paints cannot be used because the snowplows rip them off the road surface in the winter.

socal2 says

It is not the size of the parking spaces. It is the sheer number of people walking around with carts that makes it impressive to see Tesla FSD safely and smoothly navigate around all that pedestrian traffic.

Why would that be particularly impressive? Many ICE cars can do the same. Pedestrians are much slower moving objects than other cars sharing the road, and the shopping carts only make the object bigger than pedestrian alone therefore easier to detect.

I said it will be like a chauffer within 5 years. Probably sooner.

Similar statements have been repeated by self-driving vehicle enthusiasts for over a decade. I almost bought a large tract of land in California an hour+ drive from SFBA a decade ago in anticipation of this technology (after being impressed by the MDX). You do realize, when this technology works, the most impacted industry won't be the auto industry but real estate: people would be riding in vans that have showers and kitchen in them making 1-2 hour commute much less of a waste of time.

The rate of improvements from Version 11 to 12 and now version 13 that is coming out this month is incredible.

Reply back if you ever get the opportunity to try the latest version of FSD in person. Otherwise, it's a waste of time debating with a guy that has no first hand experience with the technology. I have about 5 thousand miles logged on FSD now with multiple drives to Los Angeles and back with very few to no safety interventions.

It is hard for me to not believe what I can see and experience with my own eyes!

I have seen multiple videos of 11, 12 and 13 in action. The latest variations of version 13 seem to be going backwards slightly. None of them is even close to not needing driver's full attention during the entire ride. That fundamentally prevents the driver/rider from doing other things like taking a shower, cooking/eating dinner, or even working out with gym equipment, reading or even surfing internet . . . so no real improved value compared to what was available in 2013/2014. That's more than a decade of stagnation! The real future in self-driving automobile is not replacing private cars with automatic taxis (which would be a catastrophe when there is a disaster evacuation need; BTW another reason for ICE cars with gas cans not battery EV), but in replacing some of the demand for packing more housing units into central zones with cars in which people can shower, cook/eat during commute; the latter would result in much more car sales than taxis . . . and making housing more affordable.

socal2 says

WookieMan says

I don't want to kill myself or another human based on electronic sensors. My eye work pretty damn well.

Didn't you say you sometimes have health issues impacting your driving?

Seized or blacked out twice now. Not a ding on the car. Maybe I drive better blacked out or I'm just that good of a driver. In a 2nd life I think I'd be a pretty phenomenal F1 driver.

I'd be shocked if anyone here has a better driving record. I'm in cornfields where you can't see and the crossing traffic doesn't stop. You have to have your head on a swivel. No radio. No phone. No distractions. We live a deer heavy population. 41 years old so about 25-26 years of driving. Haven't hit one deer. The only one ran into my car about 3 weeks ago. Still no damage.

No sensor can stop that. The deer and I made eye contact, not a joke out of the drivers window and that doe just slid alongside the car. No damage. In any smaller car it would have massive damage. Maybe airbag deployment. The road and spot I was at was the worst possible timing. Huge dip down to a creek with a curve included. And yes IL does have some hills. Either way, 9 out of 10 drivers would have put their car in the creek or guard rail. I was literally laughing. I love having an old car I don't care about, but take care of it.

socal2 says

It is not the size of the parking spaces. It is the sheer number of people walking around with carts that makes it impressive to see Tesla FSD safely and smoothly navigate around all that pedestrian traffic.

If we're talking parking lots, you're negating the dip shit that rips out of their parking spot. Not a knock on Tesla, but it's impossible to stop those idiots. Won't kill you, but your car will get damaged by someone pulling through with a blind spot or backing out quickly. It's why I take the far away parking spot. Get a little walking in as well.

There's the 10% chance you get the ass hole ripping across the parking lanes in the back or 90% chance of someone hitting you in the front spots relying on a back up cam and not using mirrors. Tesla and other cars can't stop other drivers is my point. My eyes are 100% better. A Tesla can't see the 60 year old in a rush walking to her car. That's an oh shit I need to pay attention moment.

T Bone and Rear end accidents are most common. No car can stop either. Head on I don't want sensors. You're going to hit something else if the car tries to avoid it.