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1
Shaman
2019 Aug 2, 10:46am
Shaman
2019 Aug 2, 10:46am
Kind of bearish there. Aside from a general slowing or perhaps moderation of growth, I am not seeing signs of a recession.
However I do hope we see some panic and a good sell-off in the market! I’m waiting to buy again when it’s “on sale.”
However I do hope we see some panic and a good sell-off in the market! I’m waiting to buy again when it’s “on sale.”
2
Rin
2019 Aug 2, 11:07am
Rin
2019 Aug 2, 11:07am
Don't forget the yield curve ...
If anything, we're missing one important factor which appears to occur before each recession and that's that of a temporary euphoria where 'things are different' this time around.
Right now, the smart market is deleveraging, aka Wall of Worry, and simply getting prepped for hard times but when the plunge occurs, it'll happen when ppl start to say that this Trump economy is different from before where everyone was flipping houses or trading Pets.com.
I don't expect any fireworks until election day.
If anything, we're missing one important factor which appears to occur before each recession and that's that of a temporary euphoria where 'things are different' this time around.
Right now, the smart market is deleveraging, aka Wall of Worry, and simply getting prepped for hard times but when the plunge occurs, it'll happen when ppl start to say that this Trump economy is different from before where everyone was flipping houses or trading Pets.com.
I don't expect any fireworks until election day.
5
Heraclitusstudent
2019 Aug 2, 3:44pm
Heraclitusstudent
2019 Aug 2, 3:44pm
Rin says
That assumes the president controls things.
But this is a special case.
I think there is a good number of people in the elite and state that are motivated to rock things before the election.
I don't expect any fireworks until election day.
That assumes the president controls things.
But this is a special case.
I think there is a good number of people in the elite and state that are motivated to rock things before the election.
6
mell
2019 Aug 2, 4:05pm
The housing price drop and sales slowdown is actually bullish for the market and economy as it only reached highs because it's a racket. More affordability = better economy. Instead of defaulting on unaffordable crapshacks people and foreign investors stopped buying. Bullish.
7
Rin
2019 Aug 2, 4:12pm
Rin
2019 Aug 2, 4:12pm
Heraclitusstudent says
It has little to do with the Pres.
Before each recession, the formerly collapsed yield spread regains its footage, the euphoria kicks in that "it's different this time" and then, the crash.
Right now, we're not yet at Pets.com nor NINJA loan flippers.
That assumes the president controls things.
It has little to do with the Pres.
Before each recession, the formerly collapsed yield spread regains its footage, the euphoria kicks in that "it's different this time" and then, the crash.
Right now, we're not yet at Pets.com nor NINJA loan flippers.
1) The economy is decelerating: Shown in PMI, Construction spending, Investments...
Of course, slowdown happens and it could bounce back.
2) Unemployment is at a low. While growth could bounce back, this would mean unemployment would get lower, which is becoming harder. Clearly unemployment gains are slowing.
3) As unemployment goes down, wage pressures increase, as one would expect. I think the recent moderation on this side is a fluke and the trend is up. This means the fed will be reluctant to cut rates, until they see signs of deteriorating labor markets - aka a recession. I don't know why people expect Feds to cut rate at the top of the cycle unless there is a recession coming.
4) Inverted rate curve shows the bond market is already betting on a recession.
All this doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling about the direction in which we are headed.