patrick.net

Now that testing is happening at high capacity we will get the real numbers, we may come in between 40%-50% of new infections today. Cepheid just got a test approved that gives results within 45 minutes, that's a huge breakthrough, as testing and tracing will be able to reduce quarantines and make the ones put in pace more effective. The "good" news with the increased testing and case count is that the death rate in the US is now around 1% and will probably continue to drop as more less serious cases evolve with massive testing. NY continues to be epicenter. Europe continues to be flat in growth, we will see soon if it has reached its peak

Thanks @mell please do keep posting the latest statistics.

When you say "Europe continues to be flat in growth" you mean that the daily increase in new cases or deaths is a fixed percent, right?

The fact that this is disproportionately affecting NY, WA, and CA seems like proof of karma. The same people that were so pro-globalization and now being more fucked by globalization than others.

It's still growing but roughly at the same rate. So the acceleration is flat.

@Patrick

this is really the best site, for the US you can drill down into the states as well by following the link:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I won’t believe any of those numbers until people with milder symptoms can get tested without 1)being rich or famous
2)being admitted to a hospital with pneumonia
3)kissing someone in China yesterday

I still haven’t been able to be tested. Thank God I am recovering, still have some chest pain/congestion/cough. It’s been about 13 days. I have given up hope of everything being tested.
I’ll just go back to work and hope for the best.
As so many others are doing now.

Thanks mell, several sites claim that cases and deaths in Italy "declined" day over day, but it doesn't look like that from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

One example:

According to this article, there were only 1991 new cases in Lombardy today compared to 3251 yesterday. 361 new deaths(Article in Italian)

https://www.affaritaliani.it/milano/coronavirus-in-lombardia-361-decessi-registrati-nelle-ultime-24-ore-scarica-660845.html

Patrick says

One example:

According to this article, there were only 1991 new cases in Lombardy today compared to 3251 yesterday. 361 new deaths(Article in Italian)

https://www.affaritaliani.it/milano/coronavirus-in-lombardia-361-decessi-registrati-nelle-ultime-24-ore-scarica-660845.html

The cases in the north are declining but people escaping the north brought it to the south where it's ramping. Still overall Europe seems to be close to the peak.

Shaman says

Now that testing is happening at high capacity we will get the real numbers, we may come in between 40%-50% of new infections today. Cepheid just got a test approved that gives results within 45 minutes, that's a huge breakthrough, as testing and tracing will be able to reduce quarantines and make the ones put in pace more effective. The "good" news with the increased testing and case count is that the death rate in the US is now around 1% and will probably continue to drop as more less serious cases evolve with massive testing. NY continues to be epicenter. Europe continues to be flat in growth, we will see soon if it has reached its peak

Dude, you shouldn’t be going back to work. Please do others a favor by staying home for another week or two until you’re completely healed before going back to work.

God bless!

https://www.fastcompany.com/90480069/the-coronavirus-might-have-just-killed-isp-data-caps

The coronavirus might have just killed ISP data caps

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-united-states-deaths/

Here's what we know about the 100 people who've died in the US from coronavirus

CA (esp. bay area), WA are showing a flattening of the curve as does Europe, but you won't hear this in the media for while. Their agenda is clear.

Got number for CA mell?

Let's make some graphs that the media won't make.

California 1,555 +164 29 +5 6 1,520

The per state list you can get bey clicking on the USA link on the main site referenced earlier. The numbers will be final roughly by 4 AM GMT as there is late reporting, so they will likely still grow for the next few hours. The only thing that site is missing is a graph. It would be awesome if we could provide some there, as well as storing the data from the days before so you can actually model trends.

Right, no history of the previous CA numbers there. Bummer. But they do have some good graphs of the whole US at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ :

Seniors are driving all over the place, stopping at the DD Drive Through, My Mom went to Walgreens and ended up with some vitamins only, went to Publix, even though her pantry is overflowing with Mac N' Cheese, Sardines, Corned Beef, Waffles in the Freezer, Puddings, Cans (plural) of Folgers, etc.

I end up with two trash bags everytime I go visit and clean out her kitchen. One lady, alone. She's got more shit than I have in my house with 5 people in it.

So school's closed, while the seniors are out gossiping and going to the Supermarkets just to gawk.

All the ladies and my mom have been out every day this week frivolously gallavanting around, just out of curiosity.

But K-12, closed.

WTF

NoCoupForYou says

Seniors are driving all over the place, stopping at the DD Drive Through, My Mom went to Walgreens and ended up with some vitamins only, went to Publix, even though her pantry is overflowing with Mac N' Cheese, Sardines, Corned Beef, Waffles in the Freezer, Puddings, Cans (plural) of Folgers, etc.

I end up with two trash bags everytime I go visit and clean out her kitchen. One lady, alone. She's got more shit than I have in my house with 5 people in it.

So school's closed, while the seniors are out gossiping and going to the Supermarkets just to gawk.

All the ladies and my mom have been out every day this week frivolously gallavanting around, just out of curiosity.

But K-12, closed.

WTF

My mom is taking it super serious. She locked herself down before it was asked of anyone here in IL. She smokes roughly 5 cigs a day, but outside of that is very healthy for someone that's 66.

I personally think if any car with a registration linked to someone 60+, should be pulled over and escorted back home. We can figure out how to get them food or groceries. I'd rather give them $2-5K/mo to stay home and have everything delivered.

I was skeptical at first, but if you're 60+, just stay the fuck home. Call/text a neighbor. The rest of the world can't go on like this because old people think they're invincible.

Germany has an anomalous mortality rate of just 0.4% with 23,921 confirmed cases and 92 deaths

We will be coming in around 30% maybe 40% so less than expected. Also CA has 10%-15% growth, same for WA. 20 people died in CA in 2-3 months.Make up your own mind is those are numbers to panic over. 414 deaths in the US - Flu: est. 20k-50k. The plan to isolate the elderly and at risk adults and youth immediately would have been best.

mell says

We will be coming in around 30% maybe 40% so less than expected. Also CA has 10%-15% growth, same for WA. 20 people died in CA in 2-3 months.Make up your own mind is those are numbers to panic over. 414 deaths in the US - Flu: est. 20k-50k. The plan to isolate the elderly and at risk adults and youth immediately would have been best.

Lol, just created another thread. A week ago Chicago was more likely to kill a person living in the US... Obviously that's changing and the virus will kill a lot. Just interesting to see the hype and benchmark it agains something else that is more easily controlled.

WookieMan says

mell says

We will be coming in around 30% maybe 40% so less than expected. Also CA has 10%-15% growth, same for WA. 20 people died in CA in 2-3 months.Make up your own mind is those are numbers to panic over. 414 deaths in the US - Flu: est. 20k-50k. The plan to isolate the elderly and at risk adults and youth immediately would have been best.

Lol, just created another thread. A week ago Chicago was more likely to kill a person living in the US... Obviously that's changing and the virus will kill a lot. Just interesting to see the hype and benchmark it agains something else that is more easily controlled.

It will kill a few thousand max in the US. The flu killed between 20-50 thousand in the US this season.

NoCoupForYou says

All the ladies and my mom have been out every day this week frivolously gallavanting around, just out of curiosity.

In my neighborhood all cars of young and middle-aged neighbors are sitting on the driveways with rust starting to form on the brake rotors while cars of the geezers are constantly driving in and out of the cul-de-sac. WTAF?

Spanish Corona Virus cases and deaths by age ranges:

The graphs above which Patrick posted indicate a peak on March 20.
I screenshot and sent them to a few people this morning.

I’m curious to see the data next week.

I wash my hands after I go buy some groceries or etc.

I’m a little worried because I am not a spring chicken, but I have good health.

There will be a vaccine and other treatments soon I’m sure.

I worry about something else; in 2025 taxes will go up automatically and then we will be paying for the free money many times over.

clambo says

The graphs above which Patrick posted indicate a peak on March 20.
I screenshot and sent them to a few people this morning.

I’m curious to see the data next week.

I wash my hands after I go buy some groceries or etc.

I’m a little worried because I am not a spring chicken, but I have good health.

There will be a vaccine and other treatments soon I’m sure.

I worry about something else; in 2025 taxes will go up automatically and then we will be paying for the free money many times over.

The numbers get updated late around 2-3 hours past 0 gmt, if you look now today was by far the largest increase. But that's mainly for NY. The other states are looking like they're peaking soon or have peaked. If they contain NY we should be fine.

WookieMan says

I was skeptical at first, but if you're 60+, just stay the fuck home.

Death rate might be something like 3% for someone 65 instead of 1% (or less) for someone 40.

The real issue is slowing the total growth out there which for the U.S. has gone from 1625 on March 12, to 33,000 now.

4 days ago it was 9,000

Sure, older people should be more careful, but just like many younger people, many of them will get it. But if all of us that get it, get it later, then the system can better handle it, and there will probably be better treatments, lowering the death rate for everyone.

I think watching deaths is probably the best indicator since testing is catching up, giving possibly exaggerated growth rates based on confirmed cases.

"official" deaths in the US have gone from 41 to 419 in the same 11 day period I mentioned above, a lower growth rate, but super high in this past day. I think both slow down a lot soon from this social distancing. Certainly by the end of this next weekend or so we will see a slow down in the growth rate.

Testing Now Available to Anyone. Results in about 30 hours.

Well, since the world's richest nation failed to gear up for the pandemic (we had PLENTY of warning) - people have had to come up with their own ways to survive.

Well, I figured out a way to get a Corona Virus test.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200322001151325?section=national/diplomacy

Korea is now testing everyone coming from Europe or from any infected area.

Also note that EVERYONE is wearing masks (the #1 social distancing device and preventer of virus spread). And we have pretty much zero masks. Hmmm...

So get on the bus (airbus), forget about us and fly to Korea! Or tie a yellow...

Just tell them you came from Europe and you will be tested. They will take your contact information and send the results of your test via email. Free.

Then fly back to the USA. Flights are $500 to $600 round trip. Cheap given you can't be tested in the USA (unless you are connected).

Yep, it will take you 48 hours or so - but faster than anywhere in the USA.

Which brings me to my next topic: Why do so many athletes, movie stars, congressmen / women, etc. have been confirmed with the virus?

Because they actually have access to testing (even without ANY symptoms). For the rest of us we have to be hospitalized to get a test. Sad.

:
Indeed

GlobalRoamer says

Which brings me to my next topic: Why do so many athletes, movie stars, congressmen / women, etc. have been confirmed with the virus?

Because they actually have access to testing (even without ANY symptoms). For the rest of us we have to be hospitalized to get a test. Sad.

Yep that was my experience!
Unless you blew a gay tranny in China last week, or you all rich and famous, NO TEST FOR YOU!

marcus says

Death rate might be something like 3% for someone 65 instead of 1% (or less) for someone 40.

The real issue is slowing the total growth out there which for the U.S. has gone from 1625 on March 12, to 33,000 now.

4 days ago it was 9,000

None of these stats matter. If we had tested everyone in the country over the last 30 days, the infected cases would be mind boggling. But, the death rate for those of all ages would probably plummet under 1% and the chance of dying from this at age 40 is probably 0.02% because the positive test increase.

I was at a 900 person event 15 days ago, not including staff and other support. There's zero chance someone in that room was NOT infect. It wouldn't shock me if 100 people got it from that event alone and none of them die or will have had symptoms. It's a strong virus on the weak and old, otherwise it's not that big of a deal.

And yes, we need to protect that class, weak and old. Making everyone chill at home is not the proper response though. I've said this in other threads, but we've with 100% certainty killed more people through the reaction to date than the virus itself. Once we have a full two weeks of shut downs, the financial effects alone will have people hanging from garage rafters across the country.

marcus says

Death rate might be something like 3% for someone 65 instead of 1% (or less) for someone 40.

These are just confirmed cases though, but what else do we have to go on. Shows 2.6% for someone 65 and .31% for someone 40:


If you count the total number of deaths is pretty small.

Looks like Europe has peaked folks. We should be next in a few days or weeks. Good news.

marcus says

Death rate might be something like 3% for someone 65 instead of 1% (or less) for someone 40.

From a peer-reviewed Imperial College paper:



Below age of 40 people are very safe.

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/03/20/why-italy/

Why Italy?

* Hundreds of thousands of Chinese immigrants now live both legally and illegally in Italy, with 300K legally registered and many more illegal.

* Italy recently entered into a new economic partnership with China called “One belt, One road”

* China has revitalized northern Italian ports in order to transport goods more efficiently to the rest of Europe

*The mayor of Florence initiated a social media campaign called “Hug a Chinese” using Chinese produced video as an engine to dispel the “racism” against the Chinese in Italy

Thirty years ago, Italy saw the beginnings of what would become a serious issue with illegal immigration. What was surprising, was that the immigrants couldn’t just walk over a border to enter the country, they had to flock from China. It began with Italians hiring the Chinese off the books at cheap wages to work making garments in towns and villages renowned for their craftmanship, and morphed into Italians seeing the Chinese learn how to do it faster and cheaper; often times watching as their family owned businesses were shuttered because they were outbid. The Chinese took over the Italian craft and made it their own. What didn’t change was the coveted “Made in Italy” label. The NY Times began documenting the trend in 2010 writing:

Over the years, Italy learned the difficult lesson that it could no longer compete with China on price. And so, its business class dreamed, Italy would sell quality, not quantity. For centuries, this walled medieval city just outside of Florence has produced some of the world’s finest fabrics, becoming a powerhouse for “Made in Italy” chic.

And then, China came here.

Chinese laborers, first a few immigrants, then tens of thousands, began settling in Prato in the late 1980s. They transformed the textile hub into a low-end garment manufacturing capital, enriching many, stoking resentment and prompting recent crackdowns that in turn have brought cries of bigotry and hypocrisy.

The city is now home to the largest concentration of Chinese in Europe; some legal, many more not. Here in the heart of Tuscany, Chinese laborers work round the clock in some 3,200 businesses making low-end clothes, shoes and accessories, often with materials imported from China, for sale at midprice and low-end retailers worldwide.

The trend continued as whole villages in Italy became Chinese villages, with the Chinese displacing the Italians who lived there, creating their own neighborhoods, and pushing out decades of Italian family owned business. They weren’t known for following the rules. It caused much local consternation; the Italians were forced to pay their taxes and follow the employment guidelines, while the Chinese seemed to have built flourishing enterprises by skirting the rules, treating their people poorly, and engaging in rich human smuggling operations, to boot. There was little accountability for the Chinese, and much for the native Italians.

Most of Europe will come in around 10%-15%, some below 10%. Here in the US it looks like only NY and NJ are still on accelerated or steady growth.