patrick.net

WookieMan says

Playing devils advocate here. Maybe if quarantines were to get strict enough, the people that maintain municipal water systems can't get to the facilities to keep them running? In that case water would be pretty essential in an urban environment where under the strictest of quarantines you probably couldn't leave the house without being arrested.

(Me, looking at 18000 gallons of water in the backyard) M'kay. Now, can someone re-enlighten me on the joys of density, living in a highrise apartment building and commuting on a crowded subway....

Not surprised Costco stock up huge.

The_Weeping_Ayatollah says

(Me, looking at 18000 gallons of water in the backyard)

I've got 26k, slightly frozen right now ;) Assuming it continues to rain, my personal reservoir will supply me a lifetime of water in an emergency. And fuck cities. Did it once, won't do it ever again.

Flavius says

Anyone wants to risk a bet on the eventual number of sick people? Dead people?

In the states or worldwide? That's a hard bet to make. Has this virus really hit the shit holes in Africa with poor healthcare? I love this site though. They list a fucking cruise ship like it's a country... lol: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Not going to make a bet, but I actually think with the awareness it's going to get contained or at minimum treated very seriously here in the states. You'll likely have to be in poor health anyway to succumb to this virus. Reality is, most people dying from this thing would have probably already been dead without modern medicine and treatment before getting the virus. But let's keep the hype up.

Hircus says

CBOEtrader says

I doubt the US will see 340 deaths from corona virus.

The only way that holds is if the virus doesn't spread in the US. That unfortunately is a long shot given the apparent level of transmissibility, the fact that people can be asymptomatic, yet contagious and the stupendously incompetent lack of testing happening in the US. Note two people have already died in the US out of less than 100 confirmed cases.

mell says

just_dregalicious says

Costco in SD was a mad house today. Virtually anything (besides food, alcohol and vodka, but I repeat myself) that you'd want in a pandemic was gone. Asians with masks. Just like TV. Lots of loud, "Do you have X?", being asked to employees. "We're sold out", "We'll have more at 10:00AM tomorrow" responses.

That seems a bit premature, but not surprising. When PG&E shut the power off in the North Bay for three days the vibe just prior to the power coming on was like precursor to Mad Max. The whole enchilada, so to speak, is very fragile.

rdm says

Note two people have already died in the US out of less than 100 confirmed cases.

Sample size of 100? And we're going to extrapolate anything from that? It's highly probable that 2 people out of 100 died from influenza this week in the US. This hype is becoming a joke.

You've got China with 1B+ people. B, Billion. There are about 80k people infected. 2,500ish have died in China. 0.0000025% of the entire population. I'd venture to guess 90% of these people were within a year of passing from some other ailment. The Chinese also had to build out more hospital beds, so ill people likely weren't getting solid treatment from date of infection and symptoms.

Many people are putting too much into the data coming out of China. Statistically this is just a new strain of flu and everyone is freaking the fuck out. Hell, it's not even killing little kids. It will likely come out that your average influenza strain is more likely to kill you at the end of this.

WookieMan says

Sample size of 100?

agreed but the post was in response to a poster positing the death toll to be less than 340 in the US

. WookieMan says

It will likely come out that your average influenza strain is more likely to kill you at the end of this.

And that would likely kill more than 340 people. My point is no one knows but given the factors we know so far a death toll in the USA of <340 is highly unlikely.

Many companies are already talking about working from home for the time being. If people avoid large crowds and stay at home mostly this should get under control quickly. I like it, maybe people will reflect on their often empty lives and connect with their family and friends again, maybe even start cooking hime made meals - what a novel concept! - rather than mindlessly partying and drinking, ubering everywhere and using services for everything. A return to the do it yourself culture would be cool with me.

Coronaviruses are believed to cause 15 to 30% of all common colds in adults and children.[14] Coronaviruses cause colds with major symptoms, such as fever and sore throat from swollen adenoids, primarily in the winter and early spring seasons.[27] Coronaviruses can cause pneumonia – either direct viral pneumonia or a secondary bacterial pneumonia – and may cause bronchitis – either direct viral bronchitis or a secondary bacterial bronchitis.[28] The much publicized human coronavirus discovered in 2003, SARS-CoV, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), has a unique pathogenesis because it causes both upper and lower respiratory tract infections.[28] There are no vaccines or antiviral drugs to prevent or treat human coronavirus infections.[29]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Human_coronaviruses

In other words, a nasty Cold. No healthy non-Elderly person should die from it.

rdm says

agreed but the post was in response to a poster positing the death toll to be less than 340 in the US

Understood. I just don't know how you track this thing if it's mainly killing old people with other underlying or known ailments. Did Corona push them over the edge immune system wise, probably. But was it 100% the cause of death in all these cases? My guess is it's not the preliminary cause regardless if they had the virus or not. I still believe this to be 98% hype and a tiny chance this could be a real problem.

WookieMan says

rdm says

agreed but the post was in response to a poster positing the death toll to be less than 340 in the US

Understood. I just don't know how you track this thing if it's mainly killing old people with other underlying or known ailments. Did Corona push them over the edge immune system wise, probably. But was it 100% the cause of death in all these cases? My guess is it's not the preliminary cause regardless if they had the virus or not. I still believe this to be 98% hype and a tiny chance this could be a real problem.

To be fair this is the same standard by which flu deaths are counted. If you die of pneumonia, even if bacterial 2ndary, or some other organ failure related to the stress of the illness, you officially died from the flu if you tested positive. So yeah there will be more cases but highly unlikely they come anywhere near the number of flu deaths..

WookieMan says

Did Corona push them over the edge immune system wise, probably. But was it 100% the cause of death in all these cases?

True, it will not in, the vast majority of cases, be death due to Covid-19 virus alone but due to causes related to Covid-19 virus infection. This is the same with flu and many other diseases, there are differing levels of fatality depending on individual factors. In a vacuum, of a perfect body, which does not exist, this virus probably has a very very low fatality rate probably close to zero. But everyone's body is in various stages of deterioration and disfunction, based on many factors and something like this can push one over the edge. Without the infection would they live for 10 more days or 10 more years, that is unknowable. But bottom line is, dead is dead.

New England Journal of Medicine: Coronavirus Could Be No Worse than Flu

An editorial published Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine speculated that the coronavirus currently causing panic in world markets could turn out no worse than “a severe seasonal influenza” in terms of mortality.

Citing an analysis of the available data from the outbreak in China, the authors note that there have been zero cases among children younger than 15; and that the fatality rate is 2% at most, and could be “considerably less than 1%.”

Those who have died have been elderly or were already suffering from another illness — as with ordinary flu. The underlying data suggest that the symptoms varies, and fewer than one in six of the cases reported were “severe.”

The authors note that coronavirus looks to be much less severe than other recent outbreaks of respiratory illnesses.

It's def serious having to deal with two seasonal influenzas at the same time, and the R0 is supposedly higher for the CV. However the main reason for the higher R0 could very well be that it is asymptomatic/mild for many, so they spread it easily, whereas the flu usually leaves most either bed-ridden or at least housebound for days up to a couple weeks, so there's more self-isolation going on with the flu. I don't see any reason why the CV should be more contagious than the flu virus, they both spread in very similar ways.

China’s extreme response to Covid 19 indicates that this virus is much more dangerous than any cold or flu. Otherwise why would they have reacted like that? That’s what concerns me the most.

PaisleyPattern says

China’s extreme response to Covid 19 indicates that this virus is much more dangerous than any cold or flu. Otherwise why would they have reacted like that? That’s what concerns me the most.

In the concentrated regions millions of people live so close to each other that they need to use drastic measures, also their sanitation is far inferior. It makes sense. It also overloads their inferior medical facilities and will take resources away for people who may need life saving procedures or care for many other reasons. It's severe enough like a well-spreading severe flu.

But they have never responded in this manner to any other flu type virus. It seems very likely they are hiding something about its severity. I don’t want that to be true. But I’m trying to be as realistic as possible. Hundreds of millions of people quarantined, and the resultant immense damage to their economy and society. I can’t imagine this would have been done if there wasn’t a very very serious reason.

PaisleyPattern says

But they have never responded in this manner to each other flu type virus. It seems very likely they are hiding something about its severity. I don’t want that to be true. But I’m trying to be as realistic as possible. Hundreds of millions of people quarantined, and the resultant immense damage to their economy and society. I can’t imagine this would have been done if there wasn’t a very very serious reason.

No, if they didn't quarantine hard economic output would have been down for many quarters. Instead if they get it under control quickly only Q1 may be impacted. It's economic survival for China as companies may decide to move their supply chain out of China. Again, makes sense. No need for conspiracy theories.

My point is that this response is immensely more extreme than any other response China has had to a respiratory virus , a cold or flu , or even any other disease. There is obviously something different going on otherwise there wouldn’t be a different response.

PaisleyPattern says

But they have never responded in this manner to any other flu type virus. It seems very likely they are hiding something about its severity.

I'd actually agree they're trying to hide something, but I don't think it has anything to do with the disease. Between the Hong Kong protests, the US trying to get fair trade, etc. I'm guessing the people aren't all that happy in China. This might be an "emergency" by design type thing to distract as silly as it sounds. We have zero idea how well the government has brainwashed the average Chinese person over there. I also don't put much stock in how the Chinese react with regards to something that may have been their own fuck up.

At the end of the day, this really isn't that dangerous to 99% of people. Especially in less densely populated places like the US.

PaisleyPattern says

My point is that this response is immensely more extreme than any other response China has had to a respiratory virus , a cold or flu , or even any other disease. There is obviously something different going on otherwise there wouldn’t be a different response.

What part of China is economically finished if they lose one or 2 quarters of GDP is so hard to comprehend? Their whole economy is based on producing (cheap) stuff and exporting it. No need to hide anything, it's simple math. They need to get this under control or they slip into a (possibly severe) recession.

WookieMan says

PaisleyPattern says

But they have never responded in this manner to any other flu type virus. It seems very likely they are hiding something about its severity.

I'd actually agree they're trying to hide something, but I don't think it has anything to do with the disease. Between the Hong Kong protests, the US trying to get fair trade, etc. I'm guessing the people aren't all that happy in China. This might be an "emergency" by design type thing to distract as silly as it sounds. We have zero idea how well the government has brainwashed the average Chinese person over there. I also don't put much stock in how the Chinese react with regards to something that may have been their own fuck up.

At the end of the day, this really isn't that dangerous to 99% of people. Especially in less densely populated places like the US.

Occam's razor still points to an accident. Anything else would be foolish. 99% of the time there is a new dangerous epidemic it originates from an animal to human transmission. HIV, bird/swine flu, pretty much all cases. Bu there are still people peddling the theory that HIV was engineered in a lab, or created to kill gays or whatever. Ironically it may turn out to be a net beneficial discovery after many years of bringing suffering as it's now easily treatable and - due to its very low mutation and very slow but stealth infection rate - it's perfect for engineering cures w/ genetically modified versions, such as leukemia or other cures.

Just wait for Hospitals to be overwhelmed by the number of cases, and people showing up demanding the healthcare they paid for dearly.
How long will civilized conversations go on?

Heraclitusstudent says

Just wait for Hospitals to be overwhelmed by the number of cases, and people showing up demanding the healthcare they paid for dearly.
How long will civilized conversations go on?

If the flu abates this won't be an issue at all. The flu is the main reason hospitals are booked in the winter.

Just a reminder for people on how this compares to the flu:
1 - Death rate for flu around 0.1%. For this coronavirus: 1-2%: 10 to 20 times more lethal.
2 - R0 (how transmittable it is) 1.3 for flu, 2-3 for coronavirus : i.e. much more contagious.
3 - For the flu, around 1% of cases are severe enough to lead to people being hospitalized. For coronavirus, 13.8% cases are severe (meaning probably hospitalized), 4.7% are critical (Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). I don't look forward to experiencing respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure , even if I survive.
4 - we know the flu, and we know it will abate in March April. We don't know what will happen for coronavirus.

Do the math.

Math says old people and smokers driving death rate
percentages so high.

Heraclitusstudent says

Just a reminder for people on how this compares to the flu:
1 - Death rate for flu around 0.1%. For this coronavirus: 1-2%: .

Do the math.

OK, so at best it kills off 2% of the worlds population, we will still be too fucking crowded.

The stock market has changed its mind and no longer seems to think that coronavirus is the end of the world.

rdm says

The only way that holds is if the virus doesn't spread in the US.

Lol, the only way that doesnt hold true is if it doesnt hold true.

Yes, I am saying this wont spread in the US and/or some mitigating factor will stop the virus.

Assuming it is unstoppable is the unrealistic expectation that I am directly challenging.

We shall see whose expectation of reality plays out :) wouldnt be the first time I've been wrong

Heraclitusstudent says

Do the math

This is global warming alarmist type forecasting.

We dont know enough about the virus to "do the math". But sure if you take your back of the envelope math of 300 M Americans times your 1% deathrate (lolz) times almost any % of the population then we have a LOT of deaths.

Me thinks your model is as off as Al Gore.

Captain Crunch is more dangerous to public health than coronavirus.

Have you seen diabetes rates lately?

CBOEtrader says

Captain Crunch is more dangerous to public health than coronavirus.

Have you seen diabetes rates lately?

Yup. It's like CV is the only virus or disease going. Nah, diabetes and cancer no longer exist.

Fact is most our healthcare costs are due to keeping people alive that should be dead. My own father was one of those. It was a miserable existence for him. If you make it past 65-70 with relative good health, you've won the lottery. Very few people 65+ are all that highly functioning (yes they fucking exist before someone gets their undies in a knot).

Let's all be honest, a senior pandemic/epidemic right now might not be a bad thing?

WookieMan says

Let's all be honest, a senior pandemic/epidemic right now might not be a bad thing?

Wear a go-pro, then say that in polite public. Your video would go viral.

WookieMan says

Fact is most our healthcare costs are due to keeping people alive that should be dead.

The sick are the golden geese of the medical industry. End stage renal disease sufferers, diabetics, even HIV patients are absolute cash cows for the industry.

China's Wuhan closes coronavirus hospital as officials hail drop in new cases

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-wuhan-closes-coronavirus-hospital-as-officials-hail-drop-in-new-cases-idUSKBN20P01K

Patrick says

The stock market has changed its mind and no longer seems to think that coronavirus is the end of the world.

Insiders cleaned out the suckers and bought the dip...same as it ever was.

Patrick says

China's Wuhan closes coronavirus hospital as officials hail drop in new cases

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-wuhan-closes-coronavirus-hospital-as-officials-hail-drop-in-new-cases-idUSKBN20P01K

Is anyone really expecting more than 400 US deaths?

All of us are fools for even wasting time discussing this, unless you want to make money off of it.

This is a $$ 3.5 B brokerage using CV to sell insurance... just in case you wondered what our overlords do when the idiots run hither and fro

CBOEtrader says

All of us are fools for even wasting time discussing this, unless you want to make money off of it.

How can I make money off of this?

Heraclitusstudent says

Just a reminder for people on how this compares to the flu:
1 - Death rate for flu around 0.1%. For this coronavirus: 1-2%: 10 to 20 times more lethal.
2 - R0 (how transmittable it is) 1.3 for flu, 2-3 for coronavirus : i.e. much more contagious.
3 - For the flu, around 1% of cases are severe enough to lead to people being hospitalized. For coronavirus, 13.8% cases are severe (meaning probably hospitalized), 4.7% are critical (Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). I don't look forward to experiencing respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure , even if I survive.
4 - we know the flu, and we know it will abate in March April. We don't know what will happen for coronavirus.

Do the math.

We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.