patrick.net

@HEYYOU try logging out and then logging in to https://patrick.net (without the www!)

Does that fix it?

We do have community spread now in the bay area and I expect a few if not many school closures. Still the reaction seems a bit crazy, while Europe, esp. Italy, and South Korea are still grappling with many new cases, it seems overall to have started to level off slightly. The rise in Europe and US was not unexpected as a delayed reaction from infections brought by travel and then spreading in the community, plus increased testing missing less cases. I assume it has been spreading for a while and expect the infections to peak within the next few weeks then to level off.

The Mighty complaining that the CDC, NHS, etc. are being too dismissive of the threat to Malingerers people with immune deficiencies, Fibromyassgia, and other 'problems' by emphasizing it's only the elderly and very ill at serious risk.

https://themighty.com/2020/03/covid-19-coronavirus-elderly-immunocompromised/?utm_source=Mighty_Page&utm_medium=Facebook

lol Santelli is an old school hard-ass, that sounds quite like him! Surprised he's still doing the CNPC thing in the deranged SJW age. Maybe he'll get fired soon for being insensitive.

#mewtwo

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This actually shows a slowdown in new cases percentage wise although many still need to be tested. A few countries sticking out like a sore thumb like Iran and some Eurpoean countries just ramping up, but looks like Italy and South Korea finally on the downward slope.

jazz_music says

Trump's getting a lot of shit form the lamestream leftoid media cause he made some "claims" that weren't totally accurate, but of course he is speaking with more positivity about this which is the right thing to do in this case, give it a positive spin to stop people from looting and loitering. This isn't WW2. He's doing the right thing IMO but the leftoids are smelling blood and are praying for the market to go down more and more to get infected/die because ORANGE! MAN! BAD! (= NPC prime directive).

I wonder if Chinese restaurants are empty.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-crazy-story-of-purell-and-the-coronavirus-130056513.html

The crazy story of Purell and the coronavirus

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-view-from-the-trading-floor-algorithms-having-outsized-impact-amid-coronavirus-panic-160248892.html

Algorithms having 'outsized impact' amid coronavirus panic

Safeway near me just now:

No hand sanitizer



No condoms

Why does the fucking iphone turn images sideways when the phone is right side up?

There's no reason to promote sensationalist fake news threads and tinfoil hat youtube videos, not even on patnet. So let's stay on the main thread. Karl Denninger has a well thought out blog post describing how METS (= metabolic equivalent of task, loosely linked to VO2Max) and death are linked. In essence you need to exercise if you can and not be fat, if you have pre-existing conditions you need to have them well under control (CF, Asthma). Unfortunately many elderly have poor lung capacity which explains the many deaths in China (pollution) and Italy (lots of elderly, it's a nice country for old people and growing old in general). We have 8 cases now in SF, all had close contact with a sick patient. One person was lifted in critical condition from the cruise ship, NOT RESULTING from Covid-19 (the patient tested negative). The fear, anxiety and stress in that situation probably exacerbated whatever the patient had. Media are doing nobody a favor by hyping this 24-7. Today all the new patients from the cruise ship have been counted so the US gained quite a few and stands now around 400. Italy is beginning with the shutdown of schools and other public gatherings and more lock-downs, the bay area has canceled numerous events such as St. Patricks day (welp!) and a few schools closed, so we should see the next few days what the new case number and percentage will be like. Overall with people recovering (and dying) the number of active cases has stayed somewhat balanced somewhere between 40k-45k worldwide, or 0.0005625% of the world population. Yes there are probably quite a few mild undetected cases spreading it as well, but with testing ramping up the actual numbers should eventually come close to the reported ones.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238382

The virus is still much less widespread than annual flu epidemics, which cause up to 5 million severe cases around the world and up to 650,000 deaths annually, according to the WHO.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/US-cruise-ship-in-limbo-as-anti-virus-controls-15112977.php

mell says

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238382

Thanks, that's a good article!

Interesting point that the biggest predictor of death seems to be lack of lung capacity before getting infected.

First, if you cannot climb stairs without becoming winded you're in quite a bit of trouble and it doesn't matter whether that's due to asthma, COPD or just generally poor physical condition. Presume that you get hit hard enough that this bug takes 5 METS out of your peak capacity at its worst. If you can only barely reach 6 you're at risk of death! Add some cardiac compromise and the risk goes up quite materially.

I have long harped on the "any size is beautiful" thing, or the "fix it with pills" deal when it comes to diabetes. That's flat-out bullcrap and now we're going to have hundreds of thousands -- or even a couple of million people find out why. None of that virtue-signalling garbage will do a thing for your capacity to move oxygen and CO2 and this virus attacks that ability. You either have the reserve capacity or you don't.

Don't means you're DEAD. ...

By definition if you're in a nursing home you are incapable of taking care of your basic daily needs on your own. This almost-always correlates with being unable to sustain any sort of material physical oxygen demand. All of these people are at very high risk.

There are about 16 million Americans with COPD, most of them as a result of smoking. With any stage of COPD you are at severe risk with this infection. ...

The bad news is that given our offshoring and "globalism" insanity over the last 30+ years and the "necessary" re-arrangement of our households to accommodate that such that one person going to work is no longer possible for most families we have a huge problem, like it or not. As a result of YOUR greed, avarice and allowing the invasion of the lower end of our labor pool by unskilled illegal invaders and sending the medium-skilled jobs to China and India we no longer can keep the kids home and teach them there where they won't get the bug, bring it home and infect you or, much worse, grandma. Your kids are going to get it and you're odds-on to get this thing too over the next year or so in no small part for this very reason. The good news is that your children are very unlikely to be seriously harmed by it.

You (and especially Granny) -- not so much. ...

If you think this is the worst of such bugs, and thus the worst-case outcome, you're nuts -- this is a preview of what will come again, and next time has even odds to be worse than this one. Maybe we ought to cut that crap, along with the open borders garbage, out eh? ...

You can climb stairs for an extended period of time, you can hike on moderate to severe trails without having to stop frequently (or at all), you can jog or run a 12 minute or better pace for an extended period of time (several miles) without having to stop or walk. Your odds are very low of needing even basic medical intervention (e.g. a doctor visit) and vanishingly small of having a severe, critical or fatal case (likely less than 1 in 1,000.) However, do not be surprised if the virus forces you to curtail your physical activity, perhaps by quite a lot. In other words you might have a really bad time of it but not hospital-grade bad. ...

The much larger impact is going to be on those people who have COPD and similar disorders. I will not be surprised at all if 20% of those people die within 12 months as a direct and indirect result of this virus and there is nothing that can be done about it as COPD is not only progressive there's no medically known way to reverse it. SE Florida has huge areas where Sunday mornings feature an enormous percentage of the patrons at various eateries sucking down carbs by the plate-full, most of them ridiculously obese and many of them are toting around oxygen cylinders. More than a few, astonishingly, drag said cylinder outside with them in the middle of their meal to have a cigarette! A huge percentage of those people are going to die when they get the virus and there's nothing that can be done about it.

If you're seriously compromised as a result of diabetes and/or severe obesity it's definitely worth getting the damned carbs out of your pie hole right now. Every bit of compromise you can get rid of in that regard, and every pound and point of insulin resistance or hypertension you can remove will help if you accomplish it prior to getting the virus. I know, I know, you can't give up the pasta, potatoes and cake, choosing green veggies, eggs, cheese and meat instead. This time it's not just the size of your ass, it's whether your ass survives that may be stake. Choose wisely because if 10% of those people die we're talking about a couple of million additional corpses. That will matter both in terms of public perception and economics.

I have long harped on the "any size is beautiful" thing, or the "fix it with pills" deal when it comes to diabetes.

+1000. If it were up to me, Type 2 diabetes would be renamed "Fat Onset Diabetes." Lose the weight and the diabetes goes away.

https://reason.com/2020/03/06/trump-says-the-covid-19-death-rate-will-be-a-fraction-of-1-percent-is-he-right/

Summary: Trump was right

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

South Korea has tested more than 140,000 people for the new coronavirus and confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%.
This suggests that, as many health experts have predicted, the virus' fatality rate seems to decrease as more cases are reported.
That's because more widespread testing leads more mild cases to be included in the count.

That's still 6x higher than influenza.

Patrick says

No condoms

because we all know this protects you from corona virus hahaha...

OK, so short companies that make equipment for people with COPD or otherwise use oxygen tanks?

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

Xi didn’t actually admit that the coronavirus now devastating large swaths of China had escaped from one of the country’s bioresearch labs. But the very next day, evidence emerged suggesting that this is exactly what happened, as the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive titled: “Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.”

Read that again. It sure sounds like China has a problem keeping dangerous pathogens in test tubes where they belong, doesn’t it? And just how many “microbiology labs” are there in China that handle “advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus”?

It turns out that in all of China, there is only one. And this one is located in the Chinese city of Wuhan that just happens to be … the epicenter of the epidemic.

That’s right. China’s only Level 4 microbiology lab that is equipped to handle deadly coronaviruses, called the National Biosafety Laboratory, is part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. ...

And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.

You heard me right.

Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash. Or, in some cases, a lot of extra cash. One Beijing researcher, now in jail, made a million dollars selling his monkeys and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s stomach.

Just because it's the NY Post doesn't mean it's wrong.

Patrick says

Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash. Or, in some cases, a lot of extra cash. One Beijing researcher, now in jail, made a million dollars selling his monkeys and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s stomach.

Holy shit. And funny thing, that's entirely plausible, knowing the culture there. Doesn't have to be a bigshot scientist, could be a janitor, too.

illegal food markets are STILL selling wildlife 'that sparked pandemic'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8088481/Footage-shows-illegal-food-markets-selling-high-risk-wildlife-animals-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html

jazz_music says

nobody else posted this one yet ... you all are slipping

The Corona jokes have kind of run their course. It’s not bad, it’s just not that unique at this point.

For sending out this unauthorized communication, Dr. Li was summoned along with seven other supposed offenders to the Public Security Bureau. There he was warned by police to stop “making false statements.” He was ordered to cease and desist “spreading rumors,” and “acting illegally to disturb social order.”

Dr. Li signed a form indicating he would refrain from continuing to do what he had been accused of doing. The chastised professional returned to his medical practice. He took his own advice and began treating patients exhibiting signs of the new illness. He himself soon died from COVID-19 when it was still known as 19-nCoV.

Is Twitter’s permanent deplatforming of the Zero Hedge web site a North American version of the police intervention in China with the goal of silencing Dr. Li? Is the censorship of the Internet in the name of opposing “conspiracy theorists” repeating the Chinese Communist Party’s effort to silence Dr. Li?

https://www.unz.com/article/who-or-what-started-the-wuhan-coronavirus-epidemic/

Asians might be more susceptible to the disease:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

Patrick says

STILL selling wildlife 'that sparked pandemic'

We don't know if that's true that that's where it originated. That's more along the lines of a Fox News rumor.

marcus says

Patrick says

STILL selling wildlife 'that sparked pandemic'

We don't know if that's true that that's where it originated. That's more along the lines of a Fox News rumor.

We'll never will know if it's true. The Chinese are liars, so there's not much point in debating or discussing it unless people want to just talk about their batshit crazy culture.

I didn't think this would happen at first, and I think I commented on it here, but I do think Asian people are now going to get the side eye from everyone else. It's unwarranted, but when you halt trading of the world largest financial system, people gonna get blamed.

I'm still astonished how overblown this is though. Healthy people are not dying and some may show zero symptoms the entire time the virus is actively in their body. So in that regard it's not even as bad as the flu which kill a half mil a year. If you have a respiratory issue or are over 65 or so, and can do it, just stay home. Most of these people only contribute to the economy if they have retirement funds. Most don't work. So do us all a favor and stay home and stop dying from Corona so we can get back to normal life.

WookieMan says

I'm still astonished how overblown this is though.

I al also amazed at the panicking and stupidity that I am seeing. It's not just the unwarranted stock selling. Even cruise lines will recover. It's the people buying out bottled water. Why the fuck are people doing that???

Sheeple. And these people are allowed to vote. This is EXACTLY why we have the Electoral College.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f31bc192-da1c-3125-b677-c0f15afcf1e9/the-coronavirus-has-sunk.html

The coronavirus has sunk cruise line stocks — now it’s time to buy them

“Redeployment of Asian ships can work for a while, then you cut pricing and people are unlikely to go. So you may have one or two quarters where you have much lower revenue,” Buckingham said during an interview Feb. 28. “The question is three to five years from now. In the fullness of time, my belief is people will get back to cruising.”

Professional investors have to sell stocks during sharp downturns while individual investors don’t. If you are an index-fund investor, you might be tempted to try to time the market by jumping out during a time of turmoil and then buying back in after the market hits bottom. The problem with this strategy for a nonprofessional investor is that you might come back in too late to enjoy a significant gain. You might even think it is too late, that stocks are too expensive and then miss out on subsequent gains after the market returns to its previous record level.

“People are trained with the flight gene. That’s what kept early man alive and it is human nature.

I'm gonna look at cruise stocks now. Not a chance the big 3 go bankrupt from this.