patrick.net

Interesting thought exercise: What could the initial death rate coming out of China have been so that zero measures would have been taken? 0.1%? 0.5%? 0.05%?

Dear Marcus, please use some common sense. It's not possible for government itself to supply food to 16 million people directly one household at a time; some kind of fascist exclusive vending right has to be auctioned through bribes. Why would those keystone cop enforcers (have to be low-quality little-trained keystone cop enforcers because enforcement has to be carried out against the entire population not just a tiny percentage criminal elements) risk their own lives interacting with anyone instead of welding every door shut and seal the inmates to die inside? Because there is profit opportunity for extorting bribes! That and the vicious satisfaction of beating someone up. Those enforcers are similar to the lowest-rung scum Nazi concentration camp guards 75-80 years ago.

Newest data shows the stronger death rate from Wuhan has come down to 1.4%. It's supposed to be quite lower in the West. For the young and middle aged it's comparable or less than the flu.

Good question, Mell. I suspect the Chinese leadership may have over-estimated the effectiveness of their (or stolen from elsewhere) biological weapon. Given the percentage of "re-infections," there is reason to suspect that two or more different types/strains of virus got out of their Wuhan biological weapons lab. The most deadly type/strain that initially killed a lot of people locally may have died with the dead victims, leaving only the relatively less harmful type/strain escaping to the other cities and the rest of the world. The South Korean data is showing overall death rate lower than 0.6% . . . that's fairly close to normal flu death rate (0.1% to 1%; CDC claiming 12k to 61k flu deaths in the US each year, so averaging 36k if 0.1% would mean 36million flu sufferers every year, 1 in 10, highly unlikely, so the flu death rate has to be higher than 0.1%) and annual car accident death rate (30-50k deaths resulting from 100 mil active drivers, so 0.3-0.5%). At this point, how exactly do they know whether people are testing positive for "Covid-19" vs. normal corona-virus types that account for 20% of common cold every year and kill large numbers of elderly every year?

Reality says

Good question, Mell. I suspect the Chinese leadership may have over-estimated the effectiveness of their (or stolen from elsewhere) biological weapon. Given the percentage of "re-infections," there is reason to suspect that two or more different types/strains of virus got out of their Wuhan biological weapons lab. The most deadly type/strain that initially killed a lot of people locally may have died with the dead victims, leaving only the relatively less harmful type/strain escaping to the other cities and the rest of the world. The South Korean data is showing overall death rate lower than 0.6% . . . that's fairly close to normal flu death rate (0.1% to 1%; CDC claiming 12k to 61k flu deaths in the US each year, so averaging 36k if 0.1% would mean 36million flu sufferers every year, 1 in 10, highly unlikely, so the flu death rate has to be higher than 0.1%) and annual car accident death rate (30-50k deaths resulting from 100 mil active drivers, so 0.3-0.5%). At this point, how ex...

I assume the Covid-19 test is for the specific new strains (L and S), but Coronavirus in general has been around forever and causing colds and deaths. Do you think this was a bioweapon? I am leaning towards animal to human transmission but it is interesting that the lab was right there. Why would they release it on purpose on their own? To cause a delayed recession in the West? They are the supplier of cheap shit, without the West buying their shit they go into an even deeper recession. I can't come up with a good reason to unleash this.

WookieMan says

The reaction doesn't fit the numbers

Agreed. That's the most disturbing thing about all this. It's not as lethal as the H1N1 swine flu of 2009, even if much more contagious. 60m Americans got that swine flu, and we hardly even mention it anymore

Reality says

there is reason to suspect that two or more different types/strains of virus

@Reality you're right about that. Read at least one scientific paper pointing out that there are definitely two of these viruses, one more lethal than the other.

:
You can tell who the people are that latch on to whatever random rumors they want. It is human nature to believe what you want to believe.

We should all try to hold on to a somewhat ignorant state of mind with this until more solid data U.S data comes in. Hopefully we can trust our experts with the facts ?

I've heard both things that this is way more communicable than the flu, and then I heard an expert on NPR this morning saying it is less so than the flu. Which is it ? Hard to know before they do some serious sampling of the general population in places where it's active.

This is interesting.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/03/13/south-korea-sees-coronavirus-slowdown-without-a-lockdown-but-with-nearly-250000-tests/#45cb3323576b

I have a hypothesis.

What if wearing a surgical mask really does protect people to a large extent, and the reason that American health experts say that they don't work, except minimally to prevent the spread when sick people wear them, is becasue we can't get them. They're all made in Asia, and they are holding on to them right now.

A case of people believing what they want to believe. Asians wear those masks religiously when there is a bug going around. Everyone wore those masks 24/7 in recent weeks.

Again, just a hypothesis. I definitely believe they work better than our experts say they do (that is beyond just the sick people wearing them) for when they cough or sneeze.

Patrick says

60m Americans got that swine flu, and we hardly even mention it anymore

How many died that flu season ? I believe it's less than any of the recent flu seasons.

Do you guys think ups, FedEx, usps, ect will stop service?

Mell,

I don't think they necessarily deliberately released it, but more likely an accident, like when some profiteering post-grad research fellow or janitorial crew sold the wrong animals into the exotic-meat market for profit. There had been at least two previous accidental leaks of SARS virus from their biological weapons research labs in the previous decade, and there was a head researcher arrested and fined/jailed for having profited over US$1mil selling lab animals from his lab, apparently making more money from the illicit sales than from his day job as a head researcher!

IMHO, there is indeed a systematic problem with those second-rate authoritarian countries running those dangerous labs. The most talented Chinese researchers tend to find jobs in the US / Canada / UK, etc.. Those going back to China are 2nd-rate rejects, and their authoritarian promotion system is highly nepotistic ("connections"-based putting incompetents in positions ill suited for the person's ability). It's just like what Japan experienced in the early 20th century. Japanese nowadays are known for their fastidious attention to details thanks to the private sector companies like Toyota and Honda promoting "Kaizen" giving each employee the incentive to make continuous improvement at his specific position/task. A century ago, under Japanese totalitarian/authoritarian government central planning (where contracts and positions were awarded according to "connections") it was nothing like that: Japanese battleships and battlecruisers had the highest rate of magazine explosions while sitting in harbor! They were literally more dangerous to their own crews than to any other navy that they were planning to fight.

The difference this time is that, by placing those dangerous bioweapons research labs in their big cities, they are chaining the local Chinese civilians, and by extension the rest of the world due to global travel, to the deck of those dangerous "battleships" prone to "magazine explosions."

RC2006 says

Do you guys think ups, FedEx, usps, ect will stop service?

No. Why would they?
If anything they are bringing back their seasonal workers.

Marcus,

Agree with you on masks likely cutting down on transmission. However, the more important piece of info from South Korea is the sheer low fatality rate: less than 0.6%, and almost zero for people under 50 (actual zero for under 30, then 1 of each in their 30's and 40's, out of over 8k cases of positive so far).

As for trusting the "experts," well we know they already lied / obfuscated about the effectiveness of wearing masks (why would medical personnel wear protective gear if they were not effective). Everyone has self-interest. People are paid to lie everyday. If the "expert" were actually good at making money from doing real medicine, they wouldn't become talking heads (or would have to be bribed with more money they'd make from their own medical practice, to lie). So read between the lines, and find what they are trying to tell you, then decide whether to believe.

I say just go ahead and infected everybody with Corona virus and be done with this in like 2 weeks

Italy coming in at 12%, most of Europe around 20% or below. Switzerland which halted all business and started lockdowns in hotbed cantons went from doubling to 5%. Folks, this is over rather sooner than later in Europe. Naturally due to the travel patterns the US is the last to peak.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/stunning-average-age-of-italians-who-have-died-from-coronavirus-is-81/

Average Age of Italians Who Have Died From Coronavirus is 81!

https://babylonbee.com/news/greta-thunberg-condemns-coronavirus-for-ending-world-before-climate-change-even-had-a-chance

Greta Thunberg Condemns Coronavirus For Causing Apocalypse 10 Years Early

Even the US came in at around 22% and below 1k, so it may be already stalling. Give it a few days for the lockdown to take effect. While we're still ramping up testing though, it could plateau very soon.

Booger says

Average Age of Italians Who Have Died From Coronavirus is 81!

Guess the vino and olive oil diet didn't work after all.

Patrick says

and we hardly even mention it anymore

I still wake up in a cold sweat with nightmares from H1N1!

Kidding. It sucked but wasn't nearly as bad as the Reyes Syndrome I had when I was 3. I got it with chicken pox. I was a military brat with a pilot dad who was overseas for months at a time. My mom kept taking me back and forth to the military hospital in Tucson. Finally (when it was nearly over) I got a correct diagnosis. Most kids don't survive untreated. I think it's like 1:million, it's been years since I looked at the stats.

I fucking vomited my brains out. I remember the skin inside my mouth and throat was sloughing off. Each bit made me vomit more. It didn't stop.

Now they have warning labels on the asprin bottles.

Speaking of which they changed the formula for play-doh. I suspect I'm partly responsible for that too. Good thing tide pods were not around when I was 3.

"Death occurs in 20–40% of those affected and about a third of those who survive are left with a significant degree of brain damage." - from wikipedia. I think those stats are when you get care at a hospital.

Anyhow, anyone wonder why I'm cray cray. heh heh..

Interesting article explaining why Italy and Iran have been hit so hard with Coronvirus.

TLDR version - "The reason these two countries are suffering the most outside China is mainly due to their close ties with Beijing, primarily through the “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) initiative."

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/17/iran-and-italy-are-paying-a-hefty-price-for-close-ties-with-communist-china/

https://english.manoramaonline.com/lifestyle/health/2020/03/17/people-with-this-blood-group-more-vulnerable-to-coronavirus.html

Beijing: People with blood group 'A' may be more prone to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) infection while those with blood type 'O' has a lower risk of contracting the deadly virus, a first-of-its-kind study claimed on Tuesday.

Reported by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the preliminary study looked at the blood group of patients in China who contracted the disease.

Researchers led by Wang Xinghuan with the Centre for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University looked at blood group patterns of more than 2,000 infected patients in Wuhan and Shenzhen.

https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C12-P3-S2.4-T1

(translated)

"The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50% and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion." Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence Sergio Romagnani writes at the top of the Tuscany Region, in anticipation of a strong increase in cases also in the region, on the basis of the study on the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo where the 3000 inhabitants are been subjected swab testing.

The immunologist explains that the data provided by the study carried out on all the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo highlight two very important information: "the percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases above all, but not only that, among young people; and the isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease ".

Europe finally closing its borders.
https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/macron-locks-down-france-eu-borders-shut-coronavirus-spreads

So glad Trump was 5 weeks ahead of this banning travel from China while all of the moron Democrats and Media (including Biden) were calling him a raaacist!

Can we admit all the stats about CV are wrong yet?

CV is not growing by 50%, or even 20% per day. The death rate isnt 2%.

If these two figures were anywhere close accurate then 1% of china would have died already.

I looked at the CDC report updated recently: "...information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild...."

Which party wants to allow the free movement across the border of people infected with TB into the USA?

Which party wants to allow the free movement across the border of 1. fentanyl 2. heroin across the border?

Which party wants to make the USA economy crash before November elections?

I'm starting to agree more and more with the over-reaction theory. But let's wait a couple more days we will see more spikes in infections with new testing which should also correct the death rate downwards.

Chinarona Cooties

https://www.sfgate.com/news/world/article/Sex-workers-face-ruin-amid-virus-fears-brothel-15136474.php

Patrick says

https://www.sfgate.com/news/world/article/Sex-workers-face-ruin-amid-virus-fears-brothel-15136474.php

Can’t they just give their coochies a month off?

https://ew.com/tv/big-brother-germany-contestants-coronavirus-live-tv-reveal/

One might think that you'd have to be living under a rock to not known about the escalating coronavirus pandemic. But it turns out you just have to live in the Big Brother house.

The 14-person cast of Germany's newest season of Big Brother are unaware of the growing crisis and will be informed on live television on Tuesday night, according to several news organizations, including Radio Times and The Guardian.

The cast has been living in isolation in a house in Cologne since Feb. 6, at which point the novel coronavirus was restricted to Wuhan and a few isolated cases around the world. Since beginning the show, they've had no updates from the outside world, apart from the addition of four housemates on March 6. Germany now has over 7,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19; 17 people have died there.