patrick.net

Patrick says

Germany now has over 7,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19; 17 people have died there.

17 of 7,000 cases??? Depending on age, there's a decent probability 5-10 of that 17 would have died anyway. I guess we'll just keep going full retard....

I don't see any large spikes anymore, such as doubles. We may come in closer to 25%-30% today with increased testing. Europe continues to trend down, between 10%-25% new cases. Close to 8000 died worldwide so far from CV. Close to 20k died of the flu in the US alone this year.

I hope this ends soon. My neighbors are tired of watching me drag my butt around on the front yard lawn after taking a dump.

Why Coronavirus isn't all bad:

1/As a San Francisco resident and business owner, I'm wondering--can I trust the health judgments of leaders who let thousands live on the streets in their filth? And if we are now getting homeless into shelter, why couldn't that have happened earlier? Doesn’t their health count?
2/ All of a sudden we are supposed to accept 24-hour curfews "for your own safety" from people who order the police to stand down when Antifa & friends beat the hell out of taxpayers; people who refuse to enforce laws they don't like (death penalty, bail, property crimes) .../

3/ City leaders who literally give wanted alien criminals a public heads up when ICE is about to conduct raids are now telling me what's best, declaring a death penalty for businesses, no hearings or due process?! Forgive me if I don't fall right into line with the fascism .../

4/ which seems awfully situational. The Governor's suggestions yesterday that older and vulnerable people take extra care and stay inside seemed reasonable. Liberal city leaders decided to seize the opportunity and throw the whole economy into a tailspin as collateral damage .../


5/ but don't worry -- we'll soon have a government sponsored bailout for favored groups soon, funded with a tax increase crammed down the throats of the dwindling number of taxpayers. Homeless go back to the streets, illegal alien criminals get sanctuary, car break-one continue...

6/ Criminals continue to be released from jail or not arrested at all, and we all become more habituated, like sheep, to the loss of liberty yet again, "for our safety." I'm not buying it. I don't buy it with FISA renewal, with gun grabbing, or with this sweeping lack of process.

/7 SF Mayor London is tied to a corruption investigation of a federally indicted city bureaucrat she dated. San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo mocked Trump supporters assaulted by criminals while police stood down. Oakland Mayor Libby Schaff tips off wanted violent illegal aliens ... /

/8 .... these are the Bay Area rulers telling 7.1 million+ citizens -- more than the population of many US states -- to stay indoors, shut down businesses? Great judgment, all of them.
https://twitter.com/pnjaban/status/1239811307991232512

If you are over 60, and you haven't died yet of Covid-19, you have failed your duty as a World Citizen.

CBOEtrader says

Can we admit all the stats about CV are wrong yet?

Explain Italy.

CBOEtrader says

CV is not growing by 50%, or even 20% per day. The death rate isnt 2%.

IT must be very dependent on a number of factors. South Korea cases all emanated from one religious group(they think). They managed to shut it down, and everyone wears masks there (which our experts say don't work, but then we can't get them right now if they do).

What ever the growth rate is, we know that we are slowing it way down. As someone else said, statistical sampling needs to be done here in the US. This is a great chance to do some real analysis and modeling, but testing needs to become widely available and fairly cheap before that can be done. OR perhaps the CDC could do it. That is random sampling testing wide groups (obviously including symptom free people) needs to be done if we want to know the actual death rate and growth rate.

CBOEtrader says

Can we admit all the stats about CV are wrong yet?

CV is not growing by 50%, or even 20% per day. The death rate isnt 2%.

If these two figures were anywhere close accurate then 1% of china would have died already.

They have little clue as to what is death rate.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate

Enter the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Quarantined at sea off Japan after a passenger tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the ship became a natural data lab where nearly everyone was tested and few cases of infection were missed.

Infections and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at MedRxiv.org.

That 0.5 percent is far less than the 3.4 percent of confirmed cases that end in death cited by the World Health Organization, but troubling nonetheless. The WHO’s number has come under fire because the true number of people infected with the virus worldwide is not known.

As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.

Pleas note that on a cruise ship the age is strongly skewed to OLD so in reality 0.5 or less % death rate seems reasonable.

marcus says

Explain Italy.

Demographics skew very old.
Open borders.
Previous flu seasons fill up the hospitals and kill a lot of old people.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/stunning-average-age-of-italians-who-have-died-from-coronavirus-is-81/
Average Age of Italians Who Have Died From Coronavirus is 81!


https://www.businessinsider.com/italy-coronavirus-old-population-cases-death-rate-2020-3
Italy, now under lockdown, has been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak. It also has one of the world's oldest populations with 60% over age 40.

According to Italy's national health institute, the average age of those who have died was 81, and many of the deceased had preexisting health conditions. Only one in five coronavirus patients is between 19 and 50 years old, making the older population significantly more impacted by the virus in Italy.

marcus says

CBOEtrader says

Can we admit all the stats about CV are wrong yet?

Explain Italy.

Aren't about 25% of the US deaths so far from Washington State and mainly from one nursing home? Now let's zoom out and really think about our reaction to this so far.....

We keep up the hype, even government workers will stop getting paid by May without an unprecedented bail out. While government has budgets, if they don't have the actual cash you don't get paid. I think a lot of people are being complacent thinking they'll do just fine because they'll keep getting their check. Not the case.

Obviously older people will be biased, but anyone 60 and under should be pushing for the old to be quarantined and if you are under that age then STOP visiting them immediately for 2 months minimum. That's the only way to stop the deaths which is the biggest fear/hype in this. Most cases are as mundane as the common flu as has been reported. And that's if there are any symptoms at all.

Our approach to this has been abysmal given our demographics.

The average age of deaths in Italy is 81.

WookieMan says

Our approach to this has been abysmal given our demographics

I think a few weeks of "social distancing" can effect the growth rate in a way that you might not be fully comprehending.

Depending on how many of the mildly symptomatic folks there are and the typical recovery time of the mildly symptomatic folks, the difference that even a few weeks of social distancing can make is profound.

Note that even without vaccines, what percentage of people need to get a flu before it starts to fade in the population ? . You might be right, but you should understand that the amount that you (and we) don't know means you really just don't know.

I predict that not too long after we get more clear testings and analysis that we will go back to work. Say by mid April. OR maybe I should say, hopefully.

Possibly from one Chinese H1-B Globaloney Employee returning from the Lunar Festival:

On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.

…

On hospital day 8 (illness day 12), the patient’s clinical condition improved. Supplemental oxygen was discontinued, and his oxygen saturation values improved to 94 to 96% while he was breathing ambient air. The previous bilateral lower-lobe rales were no longer present. His appetite improved, and he was asymptomatic aside from intermittent dry cough and rhinorrhea. As of January 30, 2020, the patient remains hospitalized. He is afebrile, and all symptoms have resolved with the exception of his cough, which is decreasing in severity.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

mell says

The average age of deaths in Italy is 81.

I wonder how much of that is the result of triage choices. Save the ICUs and ventilators for younger folks that we have a better chance of saving.

marcus says

Depending on how many of the mildly symptomatic folks there are and the typical recovery time of the mildly symptomatic folks, the difference that even a few weeks of social distancing can make is profound.

At what cost? Is extending 3000 lives by 4 months each (i.e. the average life expectancy in a nursing home is 8 months after arrival, before Covid-19) worth $1,000,000,000,000 (1 trillion) economic loss (i.e. $80 million per person-month) and wasting 0.5 month each for the remaining 370,000,000 Americans? i.e. 12,000 person-months lost due to act-of-God vs. 185,000,000 person-months and $1,000,000,000,000 lost due to government intervention.

Also, that extending 3000 lives by 4 months each estimate is extremely optimistic: assuming ventilators are 100% effective, whereas in reality the 1yr survival rate of all people after being put on ventilator is only around 30% even if not dying on the ventilator.

Imagine how people would be reacting if this were a real crisis. Like the Spanish flu, or Krakatoa type eruption.

marcus says

They managed to shut it down, and everyone wears masks there (which our experts say don't work, but then we can't get them right now if they do).

I'm w you there. CV supposedly is spread from infected droplets. A simple Halloween mask would stop most spittle drops from flying out of or into your mouth. Illogical to say they are useless

WookieMan says

STOP visiting them immediately for 2 months minimum.

My grandpa told me not to visit in 2 weeks as planned. It's the right decision :/

Booger says

Imagine how people would be reacting if this were a real crisis. Like the Spanish flu, or Krakatoa type eruption.

Toilet paper would definitely become extinct.

marcus says

mell says

The average age of deaths in Italy is 81.

I wonder how much of that is the result of triage choices. Save the ICUs and ventilators for younger folks that we have a better chance of saving.

If that's the case then someone who understands stats needs to be watching over the decisions of the doctors. They are making these triage decisions based on estimated deathrates... which push the deathrate for that group higher?

Fuck I hope that's not the case

Reality says

At what cost?

This is the unsavory question that noone wants to ask.

The virtue signaling rich housewives are going into the whole "these seniors saved us in ww2, you can't sit on the couch for 2 weeks" garbage.

Meanwhile i'm thinking " easy for a rich, spoiled princess to say. What about people who need their paycheck to buy food and gasoline?"

Tim Aurora says

1.You do not know the after effects of the virus on Normal people. It may cause lung Fibrosis

"Social-distancing" has zero effect on reducing how many people total will be exposed to it: being only a way to flatten the curve until about 70% of the population are exposed to it thereby acquiring enough herd immunity. In fact, an argument can be made that if you want to reduce total number of exposures/infections (as opposed to reducing death count), you'd want to get the entire population exposed to it as quickly as possible in order to develop herd immunity quickly.

<2. The number of people dying without drastic measures is 1% of 100 million = 1 million people.

The 1% morbidity number is likely an over-estimate for Covid-19's fatality rate for the general population. In the absence of Covid-19, about 1% of the general population die every year anyway, most due to age and other diseases. Perhaps some of those people with these two conditions might die a few months early due to Covid-19 or other types of Common Cold and Flu. 20% of Common Cold is caused by one of the four common types of Corona-virus every year; in a couple years, Covid-19 virus will become the 5th common cold virus that is common in the human population.

Tim Aurora says

2. The number of people dying without drastic measures is 1% of 100 million = 1 million people.

These are butt numbers, pulled right out yo ass. Why not 2% of 300 million, if we want to get all hyperbolic?

China had 3000 deaths in 4 months.

CBOEtrader says

Reality says

At what cost?

This is the unsavory question that noone wants to ask.

The virtue signaling rich housewives are going into the whole "these seniors saved us in ww2, you can't sit on the couch for 2 weeks" garbage.

Meanwhile i'm thinking " easy for a rich, spoiled princess to say. What about people who need their paycheck to buy food and gasoline?"

Indeed! The truth might be even more stark than that: many people are going to develop depression during the isolation and financial hardship. The deaths from those depressions may well exceed 3000.

Tim Aurora says

1. Their numbers are under reported

2. They undertook a massive intervention

So they under reported, aka lied. But are telling the truth about their massive intervention? Not sure it can be both.

I tend to agree with Marcus on this about the unknowns. Demographics and underlying health issues are massively different from place to place. Masks probably would help stop the spread.

But at the end of the day, the easiest route is for those 60+ to just chill at home. Don't leave or have visitors for 2-4 months. We're much more equipped to have groceries delivered and sterilized at drop off versus shutting down the entire fucking productive world. The people that are going to live another 10-80 years will get this regardless, or make it to the stage there's a vax.

WookieMan says

We're much more equipped to have groceries delivered and sterilized at drop off versus shutting down the entire fucking productive world.

Forgot to add that we could easily send this demographic $2-3k per month during that time period instead of sending $1k to every adult citizen to piss away on drugs, beer and smokes... whatever their vice is as they enter depression because they don't have the prospect of making $$$$ because we shut the fucking country down.

Tim Aurora says

2. The number of people dying without drastic measures is 1% of 100 million = 1 million people

This is a made up statistic.

sending $1k to every adult citizen

Andrew Yang must be somewhat smug right now.....

Heard from a neighbor today who works in healthcare that he saw and forwarded a letter from the state health department instituting a shelter in place order for the whole state starting at midnight! Essential services only, grocery store and medical necessity only.

California's fearless leader Stabbin Gavin is now suggesting public schools to remain closed until fall. This is one day after the mandatory shelter in place for the Bay Area. I want to know what evidence suggests schools need to remain closed. Where is the California Department of Health press release stating so? Are doctor's coming out saying this? It's my understanding that other countries rates of infection are falling, so why this draconian,over the top, fear inducing response from our doosh bag governor?

I'm beginning to wonder if this is purely political now? How else can the democrats make sure Trump is not reelected in November? Trash the economy that's how, and this proposed school closure until fall will do just that.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/education/article/California-governor-Most-schools-likely-out-15138882.php

CBOEtrader says

If that's the case then someone who understands stats needs to be watching over the decisions of the doctors. They are making these triage decisions based on estimated deathrates... which push the deathrate for that group higher?

Fuck I hope that's not the case

Didn't you hear ? Italy was overwhelmed and they were doing triage to see who gets the needed care and letting others die. Not enough ICUs or ventilators. Maybe not enough doctors either ?

CBOEtrader says

. which push the deathrate for that group higher?

Not making the decsions for that reason. But it would naturally work out that way. If you have to let some people not get the care they need, wouldn't you naturally lean toward older and sicker people ? (that you might not have been able to save anyway). That's what triage is - although I'm sure they have more complex ways of analyzing it. What, do you expect them to use a random number generator ?

Tim Aurora says

"Social-distancing" has zero effect on reducing how many people total will be exposed to it: being only a way to flatten the curve until about 70% of the population are exposed to it thereby acquiring enough herd immunity.

Exposure versus severe cases.

Supposedly just many get sick (not just exposed), but just later. But it seems to me that it may significantly reduce the number of serious cases - not just postpone them. How can it not ?

marcus says

Exposure versus severe cases.

Supposedly just many get sick (not just exposed), but just later. But it seems to me that it may significantly reduce the number of serious cases - not just postpone them. How can it not ?

How? What difference? The same virus, the same medical condition / genetics of the same person, why would the outcome/severity (before intensive medical intervention) be different depending on the timing of the first encounter? The theory behind the "flattening the curve" is that intensive medical intervention at hospital is highly beneficial, and there are only so many beds available at hospitals. That beneficial hypothesis is not yet proven based on what percentage of patients put on ventilators survive vs. the 100,000 or so patients that die in the US every year due to diseases they pick up at hospitals (not counting medical malpractices). We do know that before Covid-19, the one-year survival rate of patients having been put on ventilator is only about 30% even if not dying on the ventilator.

Assuming everything else being equal, late encounter leading to lower severity (before intensive medical intervention) would require some sort of evolution among the different strains of virus: i.e. only if thousands if not tens of thousands of people dying and taking the most deadly strains of the virus out with them, leaving more benign strains spreading among human population. That too will happen in a few years as Covid-19 virus becomes the 5th community/common virus among human population (just like the existing 4 other types of corona-virus that already cause 20% of the Common Cold)

Reality says

How? What difference? The same virus, the same medical condition / genetics of the same person, why would the outcome/severity (before intensive medical intervention) be different depending on the timing of the first encounter?

Less deadly strain?

Haha, good question just as I was typing up the 2nd paragraph in the above post:

Assuming everything else being equal, late encounter leading to lower severity (before intensive medical intervention) would require some sort of evolution among the different strains of virus: i.e. only if thousands if not tens of thousands of people dying and taking the most deadly strains of the virus out with them, leaving more benign strains spreading among human population. That too will happen in a couple years as Covid-19 virus becomes the 5th community/common virus among human population (just like the existing 4 other types of corona-virus that already cause 20% of the Common Cold)

So, slowing down the deaths would actually slow down the genetic elimination of the most deadly strains.

Edit: I actually suspect some of that was happening in Wuhan: multiple different types/strains of the virus leaked out, and the high initial death rate in Wuhan prevented the most deadly strains from leaving that city, so the rest of the world seems to have much lower fatality rate.

So, four NBA players have tested positive for CV. Thing is: only one of them has any symptoms!

That’s what makes this thing spread so fast! Young healthy people are carriers and walk around infecting everyone they meet.
And lemme tell you, they aren’t getting CV tests! I couldn’t even get one and I had moderate symptoms! Finally abating, thank God. But I suspect a crap load of people are walking Typhoid Marys. Mostly kids and young adults.