patrick.net

Reality says

late encounter leading to lower severity

I understand what they say.

But what I'm thinking is why would later encounter mean not less encounter ? In other words why wouldn't some of the people that caught and got deathly ill(without social distancing) , not miss it entirely if during the social distancing a lot of the most susceptible people (not most susceptible to severe illness, but most susceptible to catching it) have had time to recover and not be contagious ?

Again, I get what they say. But I'm not convinced. Otherwise how do you explain South Korea or China for that matter, if quarantining and or social distancing only postpone the effect.

marcus says

But what I'm thinking is why would later encounter mean not less encounter ? In other words why wouldn't some of the people that caught and got deathly ill(without social distancing) , not miss it entirely if during the social distancing a lot of the most susceptible people (not most susceptible to severe illness, but most susceptible to catching it) have had time to recover and not be contagious ?

Because (assuming R0=3) it's not possible to build up 66% exposure/immunity in the general population in two weeks of slow spreading "social distancing." As soon as the bans are lifted, the virus would spread like previously, wasting the two weeks of productive time for nothing.

Otherwise how do you explain South Korea or China for that matter, if quarantining and or social distancing only postpone the effect.

Both countries had very localized outbreaks. The overwhelming majority of cases in South Korea took place around the city of Daegu, where the religious cult was located and had frequent exchange with their branch office in Wuhan. In the case of China, I suspect their leadership had some inkling that a much more deadly virus got out (something with a fatality rate perhaps similar to MERS in the 65% range) among a cluster of different virii so decided to seal the city of Wuhan in order to use the 10 million population there to carry out the evolution/"domestication" of the cluster of virii, letting tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands dead human victims to carry the most deadly strains out to the crematoria / incinerators, in order to save the leadership's own skin hundreds of miles away.

The situation in the US is very different. We have small outbreaks of mostly minor illness all over the country, with very low death rates.

DIE
PEASANtS
FUCKING
DIE !!!

Reality says

Both countries had very localized outbreaks.

But if you can quash local outbreaks, doing more than just postponing, then certainly shutting down metro areas to a significant degree may also do more than just postpone.

In any case, changing the subject, shouldn't the US be highly motivated to do significant testing, beyond just those people that think they may have CV, very soon ?

marcus says

But if you can quash local outbreaks, doing more than just postponing, then certainly shutting down metro areas to a significant degree may also do more than just postpone.

The point of quarantining an area is not to save the people in the area but to let virus/disease have its way with the local population, in order to save people outside that area. That's the strategy since medieval times as well as why farmers slaughter contaminated / diseased live-stock. Do you feel like being a live-stock? or do you fancy yourself being the butcher or butcher's assistant? For some odd reason, government brainwashing tend to make people fancy themselves as special while think of other people as being disposable.

Shutting down a metro area in the US is likely to result in killing more people by depression (due to both isolation and financial pressure) than the number of elderly such a policy would save.

In any case, changing the subject, shouldn't the US be highly motivated to do significant testing, beyond just those people that think they may have CV, very soon ?

Depending on the cost of the test. If each test costs over $1000, it almost certainly makes no sense to test everyone for the Common Cold, despite the Common Cold kills thousands of people (especially the elderly) every year.

Reality says

Shutting down a metro area in the US is likely to result in killing more people by depression (due to both isolation and financial pressure) than the number of elderly such a policy would save.

I didnt mean literally shutting it down. I meant what we are doing.

:
Given the testing done in SK it can be done less expensively.

And I was referring to statistical sampling, not testing everyone that has the sniffles.

CBOEtrader says

Can we admit all the stats about CV are wrong yet?

CV is not growing by 50%, or even 20% per day. The death rate isnt 2%.

If these two figures were anywhere close accurate then 1% of china would have died already.

Who is reporting those stats, and for where/when?

Or are you talking about the stats that were recorded a month or 2 ago before containment efforts started getting serious and slowed the growth down?

www.youtube.com/embed/JE0TGFVquvM

Reality says

Shutting down a metro area in the US is likely to result in killing more people by depression (due to both isolation and financial pressure) than the number of elderly such a policy would save.

Preach brotha. Been saying this. People hide their shit and most people don't realize how fucked up their peers are. Trust me as someone that lost a brother in law via suicide who had just gotten a dream promotion. Lots of people put up protective bubbles. I worry about my own wife right now with this lock down. She's social as fuck and even 3-4 days into the social distancing thing she's become very edgy. Not worried about suicide, but there's no reason to be doing this to young and healthy people.

Then there's the potential for shortages of life supporting drugs. Say 10,000 people can't get their blood pressure medication and 100 of them die of a heart attack. I have hereditary high blood pressure. I am healthy, active and young but blood pressure is just above where my docs want it off meds. I don't think I'm in a place where if I missed a month of BP meds I die, but there are a lot of at risk people that could. If you get 1,000 people thinking they're having a heart attack and go to the ER, isn't that a problem as well if you scale it out across the country?

I totally understand the overwhelm "potentially" of hospitals, but we could be creating more overwhelm via other methods. It's harsh and I'm biased. I have no grandparents and only my mom and mother in law as a relatively young person. I am going to avoid them for a while and have told them as much. The fact is people dying from this on average were already unproductive and a drain on our system. We can't fuck 90% of people up to save 10% that "maaayyyybe" get this and need critical care.

We don't allow kids under 21 to drink. No smoking under 18. We regulate the shit out of this country. Is it that far fetched that we can't tell 70+ people to just hunker down for 2 months while the rest of us live our lives?

Since the virus affects men at a 50% higher rate than women, the liberal answer is obvious:

All men should identify as women for the duration of the epidemic! That way they won't catch it.

Also interesting: China has 15% more males than females. That could have bumped up their case rate.

Patrick says

Also interesting: China has 15% more males than females. That could have bumped up their case rate.

They also smoke like fucking chimneys.

Woman gives false name and address, flees hospital after testing positive for COVID-19

https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-jersey-newark-woman-coronavirus-positive-at-large-public-health-risk

Illegal or Bench Warrant?

What you're seeing now is basically the same as if we passed the Green New Deal

zzyzzx says

I get the joke of the meme obviously. That girl is not attractive though.

I wonder if the couples cam porn industry is going to boom now? I don't see why it wouldn't. Are there investments in porn publicly? Or is it too dirty to publicly trade?

zzyzzx says

Looks like that prize goes to Professor David Paterson, if he can prove his cure works reliably.

https://patrick.net/post/1330839/2020-03-18-australians-claim-to-have-a-cure-an-hiv-drug-and-chloroquine

https://babylonbee.com/news/greta-thunberg-condemns-coronavirus-for-ending-world-before-climate-change-even-had-a-chance

OK, now what exactly is the name of the obsolete HIV drug that cures coronavirus, and who owns the patent?

The owners are either going to make a metric shit ton of money, or their patent will be violated for very good reasons.

Or maybe the patent has expired.

Patrick says

Looks like that prize goes to Professor David Paterson, if he can prove his cure works reliably.

She is hideous though Patrick. I don't think you can call that a prize. She's painted in makeup like a clown and the face still looks shitty. I like natural beauty that doesn't need paint to attempt to look below average. I generally have no problem with tattoos, but chicks wear sleeveless stuff all the time and it looks tacky. She's a 4 at best. Stay away to avoid an STD type, regardless of her career.

Patrick says

Now we know why Trump wanted to spend a billion to buy vaccine from the Germans. Stormy the 2nd, raw dog baby

https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/03/18/we-need-those-beds-baltimore-mayor-urges-people-to-put-down-guns-after-violence-continues-during-covid-19-pandemic/

Baltimore Mayor Begs Residents To Stop Shooting Each Other So Hospital Beds Can Be Used For Coronavirus Patients

BALTIMORE (WJZ) — Baltimore Mayor Jack Young urged residents to put down their guns and heed orders to stay home after multiple people were shot Tuesday night amidst the coronavirus pandemic.

Patrick says

OK, now what exactly is the name of the obsolete HIV drug that cures coronavirus, and who owns the patent?

The Australians didn't say, but other sites say that one drug is a combination: lopinavir/ritonavir (marketed as Kaletra or Aluvia, and patent expired in 2016!), and another is called remdesivir.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lopinavir/ritonavir

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir

In late January 2020, remdesivir was administered to the first US patient to be confirmed to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, in Snohomish County, Washington, for "compassionate use" after he progressed to pneumonia. While no broad conclusions were made based on the single treatment, the patient's condition improved dramatically the next day,[7] and he was eventually discharged.[19]

Also in late January 2020, Chinese medical researchers stated to the media that in exploratory research considering a selection of 30 drug candidates, remdesivir and two other drugs, chloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir, seemed to have "fairly good inhibitory effects" on SARS-CoV-2 at the cellular level. Requests to start clinical testing were submitted.[20][21] On February 6, 2020, a clinical trial of remdesivir began in China.[22]

On 17 March 2020, remdesivir was provisionally approved for use for COVID19 patients in a serious condition in the Czech Republic.[23]

On 18 March 2020, the first italian COVID-19 patient was successfully cured with remdesivir. [24]

Damn, that was just today.

On 18 March 2020, the first italian COVID-19 patient was successfully cured with remdesivir. [24]


Damn, that was just today.

You will know this is true if the Dow shoots up tomorrow.

Baltimore Mayor Begs Residents To Stop Shooting Each Other So Hospital Beds Can Be Used For Coronavirus Patients.

What he really meant was , "If you shoot, be sure to kill."