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Corona virus (more correctly, Wuhan virus)


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2020 Jan 24, 12:33pm   195,391 views  3,372 comments

by Heraclitusstudent   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

Anyone wants to risk a bet on the eventual number of sick people? Dead people?

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121   mell   2020 Feb 1, 5:49pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
mell says
This whole thing is still a nothingburger compared to the flu. I almost think it's deliberately hyped to stoke fear in the markets


If you think about it, they could crush the pandemic by taking radical measures as soon as they found the virus: stop all in/out from China regions without 2 weeks quarantine, close schools and stop economic activities without full protection gears. This would have avoided contamination outside the region and saved lives. But the rub is a large hit to economic activities due to added frictions. Which is why they resisted radical measures initially.

This is starting to happen: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-infecting-global-economy-220135978.html
Economic activities are put on old, stores are closed, people stay home. This hurts the economy and will hurt profit.


Agreed. I think the drastic measures are right, even if it is just to prevent damage to your own economy. An dit seems to be working with only 132 confirmed cases worldwide outside of China. Still people will rush and buy their iphones when the stores open again with even longer lines. We had situations like this - for various reasons - many times before and it hardly made a dent, compared to a real organic recession or finanicial crisis.
122   mell   2020 Feb 1, 6:21pm  

Growth rate currently roughly at 15%-20% if you believe official numbers. Pretty much all cases in China.
123   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2020 Feb 1, 6:57pm  

mell says
only 132 confirmed cases worldwide outside of China.


That was an hour ago. Now it's up to 164.
124   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 1, 8:38pm  

14380 cases, 304 deaths in China.
125   mell   2020 Feb 1, 8:47pm  

just_dregalicious says
mell says
only 132 confirmed cases worldwide outside of China.


That was an hour ago. Now it's up to 164.


I think it was from even earlier. The rest of the world will soon have China completely isolated. It's tougher for the bordering countries though.
126   mell   2020 Feb 1, 8:51pm  

Also some are probably recovering by now so you can't just keep counting up. ROW still seems fine but not China. Also surprising Hong Kong has been largely spared and theres no reports of health worker transmissions (outside China).
127   mell   2020 Feb 1, 9:00pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
14380 cases, 304 deaths in China.


Looks like still 20%-25% steady growth then.
128   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 1, 9:36pm  

2590 new cases in China, that's 18%, a clear slowdown from the original ramp.
129   Eman   2020 Feb 1, 11:16pm  

https://apnews.com/ae3b771d965a635e438cfdeeedb62b71

The population of Wuhan is 11M people while the Chinese government locked down 50M people. Could the problem be at least 5x of what they’re actually reporting?
131   mell   2020 Feb 2, 8:22am  

They treated a very sick patient in Thailand with hiv/flu AVs and she improved dramatically within 48 hours. I think at this point it is very manageable and just a hygiene and supply issue for China. We may have reached a turning point for the better, Oseltamivir is one of them, I believe that's Tamiflu.
132   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2020 Feb 2, 9:23am  

Seems to resolve quickly for people who don't get the respiratory syndrome. I a saw a doctor last night talk about a German guy who got it on the 20th, started to feel ill on the 24th, began to feel better on the 26th and went back to work on the 27th. He was still shedding virus particles on the 29th. That is when they caught up with him. He didn't even know it was the Tecatevirus.
134   Patrick   2020 Feb 2, 9:58am  

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-cenbank/china-to-inject-174-billion-of-liquidity-on-monday-as-markets-reopen-idUSKBN1ZW074

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said last week that the virus could force companies to re-evaluate their supply chains, potentially returning some jobs to the United States.


Yes!
135   mell   2020 Feb 2, 12:13pm  

26 million flu cases and 25000 deaths in the US alone - and it's not even a severe season. So wtf is this coronavirus hype all about.
136   RC2006   2020 Feb 2, 1:03pm  

mell says
26 million flu cases and 25000 deaths in the US alone - and it's not even a severe season. So wtf is this coronavirus hype all about.


If this spreads the same as the flu your 26 million would equal 5.2million deaths (if death rate is 2%) in the US not counting how overloaded hospitals would get. Also I think we would rapidly run out of all of the common drugs used to treat breathing issues from pneumonia. With the way China is ran I would think they are under reporting as much as they can.
137   mell   2020 Feb 2, 1:38pm  

RC2006 says
mell says
26 million flu cases and 25000 deaths in the US alone - and it's not even a severe season. So wtf is this coronavirus hype all about.


If this spreads the same as the flu your 26 million would equal 5.2million deaths (if death rate is 2%) in the US not counting how overloaded hospitals would get. Also I think we would rapidly run out of all of the common drugs used to treat breathing issues from pneumonia. With the way China is ran I would think they are under reporting as much as they can.

Yeah but there's zero quarantine for the flu and by now almost total quarantine for this so this won't spread much beyond China. Plus if the anti viral cocktail helps for most cases they have plenty of it since it's common flu and hiv AVs so they need to make sure people take them right away on suspicion before developing complications.
138   mell   2020 Feb 2, 1:41pm  

Also the flu virus mutates much more rapidly which makes it a challenge each year. Cvs don't mutate much. Still all these measures are very important until there's a vaccine. Good to stay vigilant.
139   mell   2020 Feb 2, 1:44pm  

If there's a bad flu season stock up on Tamiflu and immediately take on onset of high fever.
140   RC2006   2020 Feb 2, 2:08pm  

flu seemed pretty weak this year, so far I'm the only one to get it in family and had a 100 fever for 3 days just felt tired.. Truth be told it was kind of nice I just stayed in room and watched TV without being bothered lol.
141   Hircus   2020 Feb 2, 8:51pm  

Looks like the daily growth rate keeps tapering off, fairly rapidly.

I took the daily data from here
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

and ran it through a script to calculate the daily growth rate. They obviously have a graph, but I feel these numbers add value.

Here's the results, taken 1 day at a time:


Jan 22 to Jan 23 (1 days)
555 to 653 = 98 growth
CDGR 17.66%

Jan 23 to Jan 24 (1 days)
653 to 2040 = 1387 growth
CDGR 212.40%

Jan 24 to Jan 25 (1 days)
2040 to 2757 = 717 growth
CDGR 35.15%

Jan 25 to Jan 26 (1 days)
2757 to 4464 = 1707 growth
CDGR 61.92%

Jan 26 to Jan 27 (1 days)
4464 to 6087 = 1623 growth
CDGR 36.36%

Jan 27 to Jan 28 (1 days)
6087 to 7805 = 1718 growth
CDGR 28.22%

Jan 28 to Jan 29 (1 days)
7805 to 9818 = 2013 growth
CDGR 25.79%

Jan 29 to Jan 30 (1 days)
9818 to 11353 = 1535 growth
CDGR 15.63%

Jan 30 to Jan 31 (1 days)
11353 to 14473 = 3120 growth
CDGR 27.48%

Jan 31 to Feb 1 (1 days)
14473 to 16780 = 2307 growth
CDGR 15.94%

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+17.66%2C212.40%2C35.15%2C61.92%2C36.36%2C28.22%2C25.79%2C15.63%2C27.48%2C15.94


and 3 days at a time, which helps smooth the trend


Jan 22 to Jan 25 (3 days)
555 to 2757 = 2202 growth
CDGR 70.63%

Jan 23 to Jan 26 (3 days)
653 to 4464 = 3811 growth
CDGR 89.79%

Jan 24 to Jan 27 (3 days)
2040 to 6087 = 4047 growth
CDGR 43.97%

Jan 25 to Jan 28 (3 days)
2757 to 7805 = 5048 growth
CDGR 41.46%

Jan 26 to Jan 29 (3 days)
4464 to 9818 = 5354 growth
CDGR 30.05%

Jan 27 to Jan 30 (3 days)
6087 to 11353 = 5266 growth
CDGR 23.09%

Jan 28 to Jan 31 (3 days)
7805 to 14473 = 6668 growth
CDGR 22.86%

Jan 29 to Feb 1 (3 days)
9818 to 16780 = 6962 growth
CDGR 19.56%

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+70.63%2C89.79%2C43.97%2C41.46%2C30.05%2C23.09%2C22.86%2C19.56
145   HeadSet   2020 Feb 3, 7:19am  

"Alcohol based hand rub" is useless against viruses. Thoroughly washing hands is better. Wash with bleach if you really want to be sure.
146   Patrick   2020 Feb 3, 7:22am  

I have read that the most effective way to prevent flus and colds is simply to wash one's hands often, and always before eating. Also, minimize touching one's eyes and nose with unclean hands. And that rubbing is as important as using soap.

The primary transmission mechanism is hands, not through the air.
147   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2020 Feb 3, 8:13am  

11 in the US now...
148   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 3, 12:37pm  

Brave, but foolish....
"Huawei, Chinese chip makers keep factories humming despite virus outbreak"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-chinese-chip-makers-keep-043752942.html
149   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 3, 12:48pm  

Johns Hopkins' Toner Says China Is Too Late, Coronavirus Is Out of Control
"Even before the outbreak was discovered, it was already out of control"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-01-30/johns-hopkins-toner-says-china-is-too-late-coronavirus-is-out-of-control-video
150   CBOEtrader   2020 Feb 3, 5:43pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Brave, but foolish....
"Huawei, Chinese chip makers keep factories humming despite virus outbreak"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-chinese-chip-makers-keep-043752942.html


Is it gonna stick to the microchips?
151   Ceffer   2020 Feb 3, 5:46pm  

It's a viral twofer, since the chips have computer viruses, too!
152   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 3, 6:01pm  

HEYYOU says
"Thailand 'cures' coronavirus with anti-HIV drug cocktail in 48 hours"

Is the patient still alive?
158   HeadSet   2020 Feb 5, 8:48am  

So, people have contracted Corona Virus because they did not get the vaccine?
159   WookieMan   2020 Feb 5, 9:13am  

HeadSet says
So, people have contracted Corona Virus because they did not get the vaccine?

I didn't get it either. Maybe pointing out their immune systems would be weakened by the Corona Virus and they may be more susceptible to diseases that have generally been eradicated via vaccines? That's my guess?
160   CBOEtrader   2020 Feb 5, 10:15am  



Using a virus outbreak to market health insurance. Who is winning here?

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