patrick.net

When shit hits the fan, i'm doing whatever apocalypse fuck does

Well it sounds like her data model was jaded to give her the results she was looking for.

less than 100 deaths 3 weeks into a global pandemic is a huge fucking Nothing Burger.
More people will die today around the world from infections caused by pet dander.

Of course it's going to fail. Critical mass, air travel and people refusing to self quarantine guarantee the spread. Usually by the time the bug attracts attention, it is already too late to keep it from running its course, whatever that may be. Time for the rich to flee the cities and huddle in their redoubts, like they used to do in the South with yellow fever.

However, it still isn't clear if this is an actual epidemic, a political tool or some combination of ingredients.

It's already pandemic by definition

We fail to contain flu outbreaks every year...so what

Boys n gals, get your masks from local stores, the inventory is getting thin.

KgK one says

Boys n gals, get your masks from local stores, the inventory is getting thin.

Make Mask Makers Rich Again

rd6B says

We fail to contain flu outbreaks every year...so what

It’s the very high percentage of cases that rapidly develop into pneumonia that is the problem. Pneumonia kills thousands every year. My buddy nearly died from it and he’s like 35 and was strong and healthy when he fell sick. It’s a dangerous condition that can rapidly develop into sepsis and then death usually follows the sepsis. Unless radical care is given, the outlook is grim. Basically, once pneumonia sets in, you have a pretty decent chance of dying of it, and if you don’t it’s only because the antibiotic cocktail they gave you helped you kick it. And maybe your immune system is kick ass as well. And you probably got some good care, maybe a hospital stay etc.

This virus leads to people needing the hospital and beds are going to be at a premium during a serious outbreak. Hardly anyone needs to be hospitalized from the flu, but with this virus, perhaps most of the sick would need to be hospitalized.

Which is why they are building new hospitals in China in the Wuhan district. Two huge hospitals are going up at a record pace, the first to be completed in a week from construction start!
Think that could ever happen in the USA? Nope!

We’d need two years just to get the environmental study done!

So if the outbreak spreads to us here we are fucked. Our hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed by the sick, leaving the grand majority with nothing but home care. This will change the death rate from 3% to probably 30%.
It just illustrates the different nature of this illness. It’s not the flu.
It’s much worse.

Not all patients are hospitalized because they are severely ill - many could stay at home but they are hospitalized because they want to contain the outbreak as well as study any potential developments as to the nature of the novel virus. So far this coronavirus is less severe than the flu if you combine infectiousness and mortality. It's true that - like the flu - due to the respiratory nature it often develops into pneumonia which is a severe condition, but even pneumonia the vast majority of patients survive. I don't think there's any containment or management problem so far outside of China, maybe even outside of Wuhan. The vast majority of cases are inside Wuhan. Of course nobody knows what's going to happen but my prediction is they will contain it within the next days or weeks and it will linger around for a while but won't dominate the headlines anymore. Moreover many biotechs are racing to find a vaccine to boost their revenues and/or stock price - capitalism at work! Within 6 months they will have at least a prototype for a vaccine is my guess. Let's see!

KgK one says

Boys n gals, get your masks from local stores, the inventory is getting thin.

You don't need a mask for this unless you travel in packed public transportation or poorly ventilated rooms in an area where there are confirmed outbreaks.

Hope this guy is right.

*Don’t buy the media hype over the new China virus*
https://nypost.com/2020/01/23/dont-buy-the-media-hype-over-the-new-china-virus/

lol but I have to give this to the pessimists - this headline does not make me feel any safe:
"Coronavirus outbreak: San Francisco activates emergency operations to ‘ensure public safety’"
SF can't control its human feces. Although I must give props to many medical personnel I know, they do have good MDs and nurses. Just shitty politicians. Leftoids.
At least they are sending the Wuhan Americans elsewhere now:
"The State Department announced plans Sunday to evacuate staff and some private citizens from Wuhan and bring them to San Francisco on Tuesday — but that plan appears to have changed.Ivar Satero, director of SFO, provided an update at Monday’s press conference with Breed about the flight. Satero said U.S. diplomats and civilians are now expected to go to Anchorage, Alaska, and then to Ontario, California. He also said all flights out of Wuhan to SFO have been canceled."

Shaman says

It’s the very high percentage of cases that rapidly develop into pneumonia that is the problem.

I heard it has ca. 4% death rate, which is kinda high, but twice or three times lower than that for Spanish flu. We'll see what happens when virus jumps to US on a larger scale...my problem with alarmism is that while the worst scenario is certainly possible, it did not materialize last 3 or 4 times when media was screaming that we all will die from ebola, swine flu, or bird flu (twice).

Shaman says

Which is why they are building new hospitals in China in the Wuhan district. Two huge hospitals are going up at a record pace, the first to be completed in a week from construction start!
Think that could ever happen in the USA? Nope!

We’d need two years just to get the environmental study done!

yeah, they took down a few 100 ft long bridges in my city, and can not rebuild them in 8 months...in case of a real emergency we are on our own.

rd6B says

Shaman says

It’s the very high percentage of cases that rapidly develop into pneumonia that is the problem.

I heard it has ca. 4% death rate, which is kinda high, but twice or three times lower than that for Spanish flu. We'll see what happens when virus jumps to US on a larger scale...my problem with alarmism is that while the worst scenario is certainly possible, it did not materialize last 3 or 4 times when media was screaming that we all will die from ebola, swine flu, or bird flu (twice).

I actually think the death rate is much lower precisely because it is very hard to determine if someone could have the coronavirus as for many patients there are mild to NO symptoms, like a common cold or less. Those will never be picked up in the statistics but can infect weaker people who then succumb. If it were the spanish flu type many healthy people would die of cytokine storms due to their immune system overreacting while immunocompromised people may actually have a better chance at surviving. This coronavirus is the opposite and more common type of (less) severe illness which kills the old and immunocompromised mainly.

mell says

KgK one says

Boys n gals, get your masks from local stores, the inventory is getting thin.

You don't need a mask for this unless you travel in packed public transportation or poorly ventilated rooms in an area where there are confirmed outbreaks.

Also many of the masks are too coarse grained for the coronavirus' dimensions and may only filter out 50%. You'd need to go full gas mask gear if you wanted 100% protection ;)

www.youtube.com/embed/6cplSFezFcg

Get N95 mask, or better, wash hands, stay away from people.

California and washington has hugh chinese population, it might spread there first.

I should go see if I can bet on this causing less than 10,000 deaths outside of China.

This is what happens when you manufacture your pandemic cheaper in China.

Scientist who ran simulation says effort to control coronavirus likely to fail

This would not be a former climate scientist who gave us the "ice free Arctic" now would it?

KgK one says

Get N95 mask, or better, wash hands, stay away from people.

Fixed:
Stay away from Chinese people.

KgK one says

Boys n gals, get your masks from local stores, the inventory is getting thin.

They're all made in China....

3mo from now nobody will remember CoronaVirus

“It’s game over man, we’re fucked.”

BayArea says

3mo from now nobody will remember CoronaVirus

Probably less time than that.

Booger says

BayArea says

3mo from now nobody will remember CoronaVirus

Probably less time than that.

We only have 1 month to save humanity. Someone call greta

Heraclitusstudent says

KgK one says

Boys n gals, get your masks from local stores, the inventory is getting thin.

They're all made in China....

3M masks are made in the USA.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/01/28/gottlieb-coronavirus-is-likely-more-widespread-in-china-than-statistics-suggest.html

Former FDA director says spread of coronavirus is inevitable

BayArea says

3mo from now nobody will remember CoronaVirus

other than mask makers and pharma companies, who will be laughing all the way to bank

We should halt all drop shipments from China, a worker could have rubbed their eyes on the product or packaging.

Aussies recreate coronavirus


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/wuhan-coronavirus-created-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390

NoCoupForYou says

We should halt all drop shipments from China, a worker could have rubbed their eyes on the product or packaging.

Reminds me of a bit from The Simpsons.

www.youtube.com/embed/lF_hml_iIDw

I heard a stat today that every year, the seasonal flu kills 18,000 a year. With hundreds of thousands getting it.

I think that's the official number to push the pro Vaxers nonsense. Or there's no way in HELL they would make such a ruckus and commotion over a few thousand cases and a hundred or so deaths in 3 weeks. They believe it's the people with COPD and other lung ailments getting it and dying. The other people are probably no worse off than the seasonal flu Millions of people fight off around the world every year and survive.

rd6B says

BayArea says

3mo from now nobody will remember CoronaVirus

other than mask makers and pharma companies, who will be laughing all the way to bank

has alex jones released a carona virus herbal bone neutraceutical shake yet?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3535137-happiness-biotech-up-53-premarket-on-coronavirus-stoked-surge-in-business

happiness biotech, LOLZ!

Ended up only 5%, big meh.