patrick.net

HeadSet says

We did do linear regression, but that was to determine correlations, nothing to do with graphing, per se.

Well these days a half way serious College Statistics and even an AP Statistics course is going to go a little deeper into linear regression (also known as the line of best fit on a scatter plot). I'm not sure how you teach that without ever drawing a graph. Certainly no text would. In any case, if the pattern of a scatter plot clearly resembles an exponential growth pattern then you can use the transformation x versus logY, or variations, until you get a linear pattern and then you can use linear regression to do predictions.

Just so you know, it's not really so much of a high school topic. Actually it's the most challenging part of a college Stats 1 (or AP Stats) section on bivariate data (scatter plots, linear regression etc), otherwise, a very easy section. You may have chosen to skip it when teaching statistics, to spend more time on the inferential stuff, which I sometimes do, at least compared to what I could do with it. Or perhpas it wasn't there then. Things change, for example what used to always be called the correlation coefficient r is now often called just correlation r.

https://stattrek.com/regression/linear-transformation.aspx
http://www.statpower.net/Content/313/Lecture%20Notes/Transformation.pdf
https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat462/node/85/

The second and third are way beyond what I teach in AP stats, just included to show that, no it's not really a precalc topic, although the simple case were talking about would be totally accessible to them . In precalc you're more usually concerned with other applications of log and exponential functions, in preparation for calculus.

“The IHME model is using New York and New Jersey data and applying it to the rest of the US.

“It predicted that over 121,000 Americans would be hospitalized yesterday (Wednesday) over the Coronavirus, Sean Davis of The Federalist said.

“The actual number? 31,142.

https://canadafreepress.com/article/save-the-western-world-by-booting-ambassador-birx-off-the-corona-virus-task

https://theothermccain.com/2020/04/09/imhe-lowers-covid-19-u-s-death-projection-again-now-down-to-60000/

While MSNBC hosts were busy spreading conspiracy theories, the doomsday forecasters were revising their numbers again:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force lowered its projections for coronavirus deaths in the U.S. by 25 percent from 81,766 to 60,415 early Wednesday morning.

The IHME model has come under withering criticism for vastly overstating projections of regular and ICU hospital beds needed, but its death projections to date have closely tracked with actual data.

Wednesday’s dramatic reverse in the model’s projection of U.S. deaths was made without a press release from IHME explaining the reasons for the reduction. It marks the second reduction in the model’s U.S. deaths projections since April 1, when it forecast 93,765 U.S. fatalities.

On April 5, the death projections were lowered to 81,766.

If a flu season kills 60k per say half-year that would be 330 per day each year during flu season in the US, so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different. The difference is there's a vaccine and established meds / care. Once that's the case for Covid-19 it will integrate with the regular flu season statistics and nobody will sensationalize it anymore. Also, should we then do at least a quarter to half of the current lockdown measures each flu season? Certainly not.

thomasdong1776 says

As of April 8th, the Covid 19 virus has risen to be the single leading daily cause of death in America (note NOT year to date or accumulated, but daily).

https://ritholtz.com/2020/04/leading-daily-cause-of-death/

So what?

jazz_music says

ThreeBays says

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day

We haven’t even seen peak liquor sales yet.

How about peak toilet paper sales?

jazz_music says

ThreeBays says

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day

We haven’t even seen peak liquor sales yet.

Clearly....

ThreeBays says

mell says

so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day for COVID-19 since we're locked down, which has kept most cities very much lower than they could get. Let's stop the charades.

We have very likely seen the peak. In terms of new infections vs total the rate has been trending down for days now and that's your indicator. Not total new cases per day which will be lagging by a few days or weeks to start their downtrend.

ThreeBays says

mell says

so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day for COVID-19 since we're locked down, which has kept most cities very much lower than they could get. Let's stop the charades.

We’ve been flat on new cases for a week and there’s more and more tests going out.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

ThreeBays says

mell says

so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day for COVID-19 since we're locked down, which has kept most cities very much lower than they could get. Let's stop the charades.

We’ve been flat on new cases for a week and there’s more and more tests going out.

Right you've reached the peak when you have the same amount of new infections as when you had 100k less cases. New cases will stagnate for a while and oscillate within the range of +- 5000 before clearly trending down.

jazz_music says

Booger says

How about peak toilet paper sales

Yes

Shit was exaggerated

You're on a roll!

Well, we've hit over 2,000 deaths per day attributed to this. That's up there with daily deaths from heart disease.

The idiots in LA County just extended the stay in place order to May 15. Cops won’t be able to enforce it. Wonder if Gruesome is willing to send in the national Guard.(they won’t be able to enforce it either).

My guess is it gets retracted. It sure does seem as though the California politicians are trying to crush the california economy.

Fucking idiots. La County officials are claiming if the order is lifted, 96% will be infected by August.

Guy I work with had it, was in close contact for several hours with 5 other employees, and about 80 people working in this wide open cubicle farm.

No one else got it.

Lying assholes.

ThreeBays says

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

We’ve been flat on new cases for a week and there’s more and more tests going out.

Let us know when you figure out how that tells us what a maximum peak without a lock-down would be.

According to the idiots that run LA County, it’s when the entire county gets it.

https://abc7.com/health/covid-19-la-county-extends-safer-at-home-order-/6093020/

Sad they already removed it from the written article after only an hour. It still says it in the video.

ThreeBays says

What's the 2nd peak going to be if we stop the lock-down?

Who cares?? Yours and others solution is to lock down the ENTIRE populace for maybe the 5% that are vulnerable? The logic behind people that think this way is mind numbing. It makes no sense and everyone that contradicts my point of view has not put forth one logical explanation why just locking down the old and frail won't work.... not one.

I am not kidding. You are going to have family members, friends of friends start killing themselves. Everyone doing the bullshit singing out the window crap is NOT happy. The zoom "hangouts" or whatever service. They're trying to do something to keep occupied. Sitting at home doing nothing kills people. I'm afraid we're going to kill a bunch of productive, younger people because it's somehow easier to put down 100% of the population versus 5%. Whatever. I'll continue to wait for someone to come with an even remotely intelligent argument why I'm wrong.

ThreeBays says

mell says

Right you've reached the peak when you have the same amount of new infections as when you had 100k less cases. New cases will stagnate for a while and oscillate within the range of +- 5000 before clearly trending down.

That's the peak of this suppressed wave. What's the 2nd peak going to be if we stop the lock-down?

Assuming by then 25%-50% have been infected it will be much weaker than the first wave. Using the slower summer months to acquire additional herd immunity is the best course of action. Open up May 1st already.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

At some point, there won't be any CRISIS ACTORS! left to hire to pretend to die.

WINNING!

That’s how hers immunity and nature works. Weak die off. Nature isn’t all that nice.

Fortwaynemobile says

Weak die off. Nature isn’t all that nice.

I think people here and elsewhere need to heed this. Short and simple. Just because we use words and have emotions doesn't take away the fact there's little we can do about this. We locked down. No one will ever have proof that made a difference because we didn't stay open. There's no equal dataset for the alternative. The morons are going to march to the hilltop and claim victory because we locked down.... with zero proof it made a difference.

I fear in an actual crisis most of the mouth breathers here are likely dead and are afraid of that fact. Strange how the weak rise to the top during times like this.

ThreeBays says

mell says

Assuming by then 25%-50% have been infected it will be much weaker than the first wave.

25-50% is a baseless assumption. The German serology test puts fatality rate at 0.37% would put USA infections in the area of 1.7%.

Test show 20% already have antibodies. How's that baseless

Sometimes I have this sinking feeling that I might die one day... stupid right?

ThreeBays says

Correction, the morons are the ones who can't tell it made a difference. There's data that curves were flattened and the spread was contained. Without slowing it down there's no reason why LA, Chicago, Dallas, etc. all metro areas wouldn't be trending to where NY went.

How do you explain Japan?
They didn't shutdown and aren't having any issues with that.

ThreeBays says

mell says

Test show 20% already have antibodies. How's that baseless

Where, what towns? Everywhere?

Everywhere where they decide to do a study the results are similar. 25% probably already had it and developed antibodies. Since it traveled around the world fast you can assume roughly equal distribution.

ThreeBays says

It's beyond clear there's not equal distribution.

It's what's expected when you would send a group of sequestered Cruise Ship passengers home, that spent three weeks locked aboard with 3 sick patients and 1 dead victim.

Studies in Italy, Germany and the US yield similar results. You can find them on the web easily.

https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/corona-studie-heinsberg-101.html

The study also makes new statements on the coronavirus mortality rate. So far, the renowned Johns Hopkins University assumes that 1.98 percent of those infected die in Germany. Due to the fact that the Heinsberger study now also includes previously undiscovered infections and the total number of corona sufferers is higher, the death rate for Gangelt is only 0.37 percent.

A total of around 1,000 people took part in the study. The interim results now available come from around half of the subjects.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/iceland-coronavirus-testing-shows-half-who-test-positive-show-no-symptoms

Coronavirus testing in Iceland determined that half of the citizens who tested positive showed no symptoms.

Iceland has tested 10% of its population for the coronavirus, more than any other country, and the data reveals that roughly half of those who tested positive aren’t showing any symptoms, which is double the Centers for Disease Control’s most recent estimate...

Iceland had more than 1,600 coronavirus infections; as of April 11, seven have ended in deaths.

So that's under 0.44%, which fits pretty well with the new German fatality rate of 0.37 percent, above.

The numbers are clearly trending down yet the MSM fake news drumbeat of doom and gloom continues. May 1st needs to be the re-opening day, not a day later.

ThreeBays says

That test showed only 1.5% of samples turned out positive. Hard to tell much without knowing the specificity (false positive rate) of the antibody test they did. If it's 1% false positive, then you get around the same ballpark fatality rate as the German and Iceland studies. Sounds like false negative rate was 25% so it's a shitty test.

Do you want more people to die?

ThreeBays says

Onvacation says

Do you want more people to die?

No, why would you think that?

All your rebuttals to points that are valid and logical. Pretty much every single one. You discard pretty much any opposing position to lock everyone down and it could go on forever approach. We need to open back up and yes, people will die. Possibly double what we're seeing. Hospitals aren't even remotely crowded. We know we have the capacity now to expand beds in probably even a quicker amount of time.

Again, people will die that may have lasted another year. Oh well. I'm sure it will get politicized. Mell is more patient than I am, open this fucker up Tuesday (tomorrow) with plans to isolate the old, sick and weak. There's not much else we're accomplishing at this point. The curve has basically peaked. Other countries are doing soft opens this week. zzzxyxxzz just posted Austria and this is in fact true. Just talked to my sister in law yesterday on a big family video chat for Easter.

Continued lockdown WILL kill more people than it helps. You clearly don't understand mental health and how many people are already living on the edge. Not just financially.

Spain is reopening after the death toll dropped to 500 per day. Italy reopens stores tomorrow.

https://patrick.net/post/1331217/?c=1661725

I expect suddenly, what Europeans are doing will become less important to the US DemMedia.

I'm paying for many services a monthly fee and the fcking government decides what is essential? How about I decide what taxes and fees are essential for me to pay? Climbed a fence with the kid to play tennis at the end of our session we got hassled by a city worker. I told him to get lost. His ass gets paid through my taxes while our private business workers are furloughed/laid off. so yeah let me pay through the nose while you close down everything we pay for fuckers! I think not - good luck collecting taxes this season.

NoCoupForYou says

Spain is reopening after the death toll dropped to 500 per day. Italy reopens stores tomorrow.

https://patrick.net/post/1331217/?c=1661725

I expect suddenly, what Europeans are doing will become less important to the US DemMedia.

The msm really is the worst. The level of lies and deceit is at satanic levels.

ThreeBays says

We're pretty much talking past each-other at this point. Rather than turn to arguing about the person, I suggest focusing on countering my arguments.

You can become the argument though when you turn down every rational objection to your point of view, with no logical point. I know Patrick frowns upon talking about other users, but you can't keep saying up is down, when that's factually false.

The models are not lining up to the narrative and it's upsetting people. Just because people are pointing out that you're wrong, doesn't mean they're attacking you or arguing about you the person. I've been wrong on countless things on this site alone. The data simply doesn't and hasn't lived up to the hype. It's really not debatable at this point. I'm sure if we were to meet, and even with this back and forth, we'd have a completely civil conversation. I just personally think you're getting sucked into a narrative that is completely fabricated and it's not necessarily your fault.

Can't remember from other posts, but do you even know one person that has tested positive for the virus? According to they hype and putting thousands of unused beds in convention centers, completely being unused, most here don't know much more than a single handful of people. At this point, the curve has flattened (and likely would have anyway) and you have to admit this whole thing was overhyped at some point. More people have completely recovered than would have died during an average flu year worldwide. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

My intention isn't to attack. I just think you're being blinded by something and I'm trying to figure out what that something is. This isn't political. This isn't feelings. It's just looking at what's around us and in front of us. It's a virus that many people have made very poor judgements on from questionable sources that weren't looking at the obvious facts staring them in the face.

ThreeBays says

If not, then can you give an argument for why NY and Illinois would have different susceptibility to this virus?

It likely has spread evenly, you can't really stop the spread of a contagious virus. The reason NY has so many cases is simple, the population density and public transportation, also they were late to test, they likely had many cases already. CA is not as densely populated and relies heavily on cars. Weather is a factor as well, the warmer, sunnier and more humid the less spread.

ThreeBays says

mell says

It likely has spread evenly, you can't really stop the spread of a contagious virus. The reason NY has so many cases is simple, the population density and public transportation, also they were late to test, they likely had many cases already. CA is not as densely populated and relies heavily on cars. Weather is a factor as well, the warmer, sunnier and more humid the less spread.

You're contradicting yourself here. It sounds to me like you're saying it has NOT spread evenly -- it's spread to a higher % of people in NY because of density and public transportation.

Slow down and re-read the comment. Saying it spreads evenly, doesn't mean everywhere. He explicitly states the warm weather as a factor and population density. The rate of spread in Montana, may be different than the spread in Puerto Rico even if the population density was the same. Different weather and density makes the results different.

Not real clear on what point you're trying to make here.

ThreeBays says

Patrick, ever considered starting a Discord?

@ThreeBays What would the advantage of discord be? Instant chat?

ThreeBays says

what you see in your network and nurses and then I explained why I think you need to think beyond what you see.

What does this even mean? I see empty hospitals and nurses close to being laid off. Not sure what you're getting at. I'm not certain this should even be qualified as a pandemic at this point.

ThreeBays says

If not, then can you give an argument for why NY and Illinois would have different susceptibility to this virus?

Have you not been to NYC or Chicago? There's no argument. Density is the major factor in this virus. Chicago is less dense by a factor of of 5-8. 2.5M versus almost 11M in a metro area? 300 sq. ft. in NYC is a bedroom in most of Chicago versus 2 apartments in NYC. In NYC people live and breath on top of each other similar to Wuhan and other epicenters of outbreak. Most other places this broke out were old, half dead people. That's still one area you haven't addressed.

WookieMan says

ThreeBays says

mell says

It likely has spread evenly, you can't really stop the spread of a contagious virus. The reason NY has so many cases is simple, the population density and public transportation, also they were late to test, they likely had many cases already. CA is not as densely populated and relies heavily on cars. Weather is a factor as well, the warmer, sunnier and more humid the less spread.

You're contradicting yourself here. It sounds to me like you're saying it has NOT spread evenly -- it's spread to a higher % of people in NY because of density and public transportation.

Slow down and re-read the comment. Saying it spreads evenly, doesn't mean everywhere. He explicitly states the warm weather as a factor and population density. The rate of spread in Montana, may be different than the spread...

Right, of course the net result is more/less infections if you take these factors into account, but it has nothing to do with the roughly equal initial spread of a highly contagious virus in a globalized world until you get down to the region granularity, where density, weather and more matters. It may make sense to do small targeted and short lockdowns or closures or tell vulnerable people in these areas to stay at home or wear a mask at all times, but a state-wide, let alone nation-wide shutdown is a horrible trade-off for small gains. Btw. we're approaching 25k deaths with the daily death rate falling already, if we accept 80k deaths for a bad flu season then we not only could but likely should open up soon, May 1st at the latest, since the total deaths will not reach 80k until next season either way. How does no restrictions at all (2017-2018 flu, 80k deaths) compare to statewide lockdowns for Covid-19? Something clearly isn't right. I can understand the initial caution and err on the safe side (CA started early) wrt mitigation, but by now and with what we know now the debate should be whether to open up tomorrow or May 1st.