patrick.net

ThreeBays says

mell says

Right you've reached the peak when you have the same amount of new infections as when you had 100k less cases. New cases will stagnate for a while and oscillate within the range of +- 5000 before clearly trending down.

That's the peak of this suppressed wave. What's the 2nd peak going to be if we stop the lock-down?

Assuming by then 25%-50% have been infected it will be much weaker than the first wave. Using the slower summer months to acquire additional herd immunity is the best course of action. Open up May 1st already.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

At some point, there won't be any CRISIS ACTORS! left to hire to pretend to die.

WINNING!

That’s how hers immunity and nature works. Weak die off. Nature isn’t all that nice.

Fortwaynemobile says

Weak die off. Nature isn’t all that nice.

I think people here and elsewhere need to heed this. Short and simple. Just because we use words and have emotions doesn't take away the fact there's little we can do about this. We locked down. No one will ever have proof that made a difference because we didn't stay open. There's no equal dataset for the alternative. The morons are going to march to the hilltop and claim victory because we locked down.... with zero proof it made a difference.

I fear in an actual crisis most of the mouth breathers here are likely dead and are afraid of that fact. Strange how the weak rise to the top during times like this.

ThreeBays says

mell says

Assuming by then 25%-50% have been infected it will be much weaker than the first wave.

25-50% is a baseless assumption. The German serology test puts fatality rate at 0.37% would put USA infections in the area of 1.7%.

Test show 20% already have antibodies. How's that baseless

Sometimes I have this sinking feeling that I might die one day... stupid right?

ThreeBays says

Correction, the morons are the ones who can't tell it made a difference. There's data that curves were flattened and the spread was contained. Without slowing it down there's no reason why LA, Chicago, Dallas, etc. all metro areas wouldn't be trending to where NY went.

How do you explain Japan?
They didn't shutdown and aren't having any issues with that.

ThreeBays says

mell says

Test show 20% already have antibodies. How's that baseless

Where, what towns? Everywhere?

Everywhere where they decide to do a study the results are similar. 25% probably already had it and developed antibodies. Since it traveled around the world fast you can assume roughly equal distribution.

ThreeBays says

It's beyond clear there's not equal distribution.

It's what's expected when you would send a group of sequestered Cruise Ship passengers home, that spent three weeks locked aboard with 3 sick patients and 1 dead victim.

Studies in Italy, Germany and the US yield similar results. You can find them on the web easily.

https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/corona-studie-heinsberg-101.html

The study also makes new statements on the coronavirus mortality rate. So far, the renowned Johns Hopkins University assumes that 1.98 percent of those infected die in Germany. Due to the fact that the Heinsberger study now also includes previously undiscovered infections and the total number of corona sufferers is higher, the death rate for Gangelt is only 0.37 percent.

A total of around 1,000 people took part in the study. The interim results now available come from around half of the subjects.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/iceland-coronavirus-testing-shows-half-who-test-positive-show-no-symptoms

Coronavirus testing in Iceland determined that half of the citizens who tested positive showed no symptoms.

Iceland has tested 10% of its population for the coronavirus, more than any other country, and the data reveals that roughly half of those who tested positive aren’t showing any symptoms, which is double the Centers for Disease Control’s most recent estimate...

Iceland had more than 1,600 coronavirus infections; as of April 11, seven have ended in deaths.

So that's under 0.44%, which fits pretty well with the new German fatality rate of 0.37 percent, above.

The numbers are clearly trending down yet the MSM fake news drumbeat of doom and gloom continues. May 1st needs to be the re-opening day, not a day later.

ThreeBays says

That test showed only 1.5% of samples turned out positive. Hard to tell much without knowing the specificity (false positive rate) of the antibody test they did. If it's 1% false positive, then you get around the same ballpark fatality rate as the German and Iceland studies. Sounds like false negative rate was 25% so it's a shitty test.

Do you want more people to die?

ThreeBays says

Onvacation says

Do you want more people to die?

No, why would you think that?

All your rebuttals to points that are valid and logical. Pretty much every single one. You discard pretty much any opposing position to lock everyone down and it could go on forever approach. We need to open back up and yes, people will die. Possibly double what we're seeing. Hospitals aren't even remotely crowded. We know we have the capacity now to expand beds in probably even a quicker amount of time.

Again, people will die that may have lasted another year. Oh well. I'm sure it will get politicized. Mell is more patient than I am, open this fucker up Tuesday (tomorrow) with plans to isolate the old, sick and weak. There's not much else we're accomplishing at this point. The curve has basically peaked. Other countries are doing soft opens this week. zzzxyxxzz just posted Austria and this is in fact true. Just talked to my sister in law yesterday on a big family video chat for Easter.

Continued lockdown WILL kill more people than it helps. You clearly don't understand mental health and how many people are already living on the edge. Not just financially.

Spain is reopening after the death toll dropped to 500 per day. Italy reopens stores tomorrow.

https://patrick.net/post/1331217/?c=1661725

I expect suddenly, what Europeans are doing will become less important to the US DemMedia.

I'm paying for many services a monthly fee and the fcking government decides what is essential? How about I decide what taxes and fees are essential for me to pay? Climbed a fence with the kid to play tennis at the end of our session we got hassled by a city worker. I told him to get lost. His ass gets paid through my taxes while our private business workers are furloughed/laid off. so yeah let me pay through the nose while you close down everything we pay for fuckers! I think not - good luck collecting taxes this season.

NoCoupForYou says

Spain is reopening after the death toll dropped to 500 per day. Italy reopens stores tomorrow.

https://patrick.net/post/1331217/?c=1661725

I expect suddenly, what Europeans are doing will become less important to the US DemMedia.

The msm really is the worst. The level of lies and deceit is at satanic levels.

ThreeBays says

We're pretty much talking past each-other at this point. Rather than turn to arguing about the person, I suggest focusing on countering my arguments.

You can become the argument though when you turn down every rational objection to your point of view, with no logical point. I know Patrick frowns upon talking about other users, but you can't keep saying up is down, when that's factually false.

The models are not lining up to the narrative and it's upsetting people. Just because people are pointing out that you're wrong, doesn't mean they're attacking you or arguing about you the person. I've been wrong on countless things on this site alone. The data simply doesn't and hasn't lived up to the hype. It's really not debatable at this point. I'm sure if we were to meet, and even with this back and forth, we'd have a completely civil conversation. I just personally think you're getting sucked into a narrative that is completely fabricated and it's not necessarily your fault.

Can't remember from other posts, but do you even know one person that has tested positive for the virus? According to they hype and putting thousands of unused beds in convention centers, completely being unused, most here don't know much more than a single handful of people. At this point, the curve has flattened (and likely would have anyway) and you have to admit this whole thing was overhyped at some point. More people have completely recovered than would have died during an average flu year worldwide. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

My intention isn't to attack. I just think you're being blinded by something and I'm trying to figure out what that something is. This isn't political. This isn't feelings. It's just looking at what's around us and in front of us. It's a virus that many people have made very poor judgements on from questionable sources that weren't looking at the obvious facts staring them in the face.

ThreeBays says

If not, then can you give an argument for why NY and Illinois would have different susceptibility to this virus?

It likely has spread evenly, you can't really stop the spread of a contagious virus. The reason NY has so many cases is simple, the population density and public transportation, also they were late to test, they likely had many cases already. CA is not as densely populated and relies heavily on cars. Weather is a factor as well, the warmer, sunnier and more humid the less spread.

ThreeBays says

mell says

It likely has spread evenly, you can't really stop the spread of a contagious virus. The reason NY has so many cases is simple, the population density and public transportation, also they were late to test, they likely had many cases already. CA is not as densely populated and relies heavily on cars. Weather is a factor as well, the warmer, sunnier and more humid the less spread.

You're contradicting yourself here. It sounds to me like you're saying it has NOT spread evenly -- it's spread to a higher % of people in NY because of density and public transportation.

Slow down and re-read the comment. Saying it spreads evenly, doesn't mean everywhere. He explicitly states the warm weather as a factor and population density. The rate of spread in Montana, may be different than the spread in Puerto Rico even if the population density was the same. Different weather and density makes the results different.

Not real clear on what point you're trying to make here.

ThreeBays says

Patrick, ever considered starting a Discord?

@ThreeBays What would the advantage of discord be? Instant chat?

ThreeBays says

what you see in your network and nurses and then I explained why I think you need to think beyond what you see.

What does this even mean? I see empty hospitals and nurses close to being laid off. Not sure what you're getting at. I'm not certain this should even be qualified as a pandemic at this point.

ThreeBays says

If not, then can you give an argument for why NY and Illinois would have different susceptibility to this virus?

Have you not been to NYC or Chicago? There's no argument. Density is the major factor in this virus. Chicago is less dense by a factor of of 5-8. 2.5M versus almost 11M in a metro area? 300 sq. ft. in NYC is a bedroom in most of Chicago versus 2 apartments in NYC. In NYC people live and breath on top of each other similar to Wuhan and other epicenters of outbreak. Most other places this broke out were old, half dead people. That's still one area you haven't addressed.

WookieMan says

ThreeBays says

mell says

It likely has spread evenly, you can't really stop the spread of a contagious virus. The reason NY has so many cases is simple, the population density and public transportation, also they were late to test, they likely had many cases already. CA is not as densely populated and relies heavily on cars. Weather is a factor as well, the warmer, sunnier and more humid the less spread.

You're contradicting yourself here. It sounds to me like you're saying it has NOT spread evenly -- it's spread to a higher % of people in NY because of density and public transportation.

Slow down and re-read the comment. Saying it spreads evenly, doesn't mean everywhere. He explicitly states the warm weather as a factor and population density. The rate of spread in Montana, may be different than the spread...

Right, of course the net result is more/less infections if you take these factors into account, but it has nothing to do with the roughly equal initial spread of a highly contagious virus in a globalized world until you get down to the region granularity, where density, weather and more matters. It may make sense to do small targeted and short lockdowns or closures or tell vulnerable people in these areas to stay at home or wear a mask at all times, but a state-wide, let alone nation-wide shutdown is a horrible trade-off for small gains. Btw. we're approaching 25k deaths with the daily death rate falling already, if we accept 80k deaths for a bad flu season then we not only could but likely should open up soon, May 1st at the latest, since the total deaths will not reach 80k until next season either way. How does no restrictions at all (2017-2018 flu, 80k deaths) compare to statewide lockdowns for Covid-19? Something clearly isn't right. I can understand the initial caution and err on the safe side (CA started early) wrt mitigation, but by now and with what we know now the debate should be whether to open up tomorrow or May 1st.

ThreeBays says

So what's the reason infections slowed down there? It has to be due to (b). It can't be (a), because of (1).

I'll agree (b) hasn't hurt and has probably helped. My point all along has been that we can't do (b) forever though. I personally think May 1st is too late to open up. We need to do it now to help get to (a) but also avoid tens of thousands of deaths due to mental health issues. We're two weeks away BEST case from opening up in any form in most places.

Economically you cannot run and hide from a virus. It's not possible. People keep thinking you just call up the UE office and you get a check. That's not reality. There are people missing payments that are 1,000% embarrassed by that fact. I think you're underestimating that part of the equation. I've got a self made sugar mama myself, but dudes are a prideful group. If they cannot provide due to a virus, the outcome does not look well for a lot of them. I think people are underestimating the suicide and OD rates that are going to skyrocket over the next couple of weeks.

20/20 hindsight is very much likely going to shed light on this moment in history. We will have killed a lot of people unnecessarily because we were afraid of a virus that kills the old and weak. It makes zero sense in an effort to save people that have lived a long life already. Open up and lock them down, and do so by force if necessary.

ThreeBays says

I agree we want to open asap. The situation stinks for many. My brother lost 25% of his pay, and almost everyone else in his company furloughed. The shutdown affects our sanity. The economic impact also affected our savings, although taking a long term view that we'll recover I'm less worried about that.

Btw I found Cuomo's update on reopening plans very enlightening. If your city doesn't have that many cases, a test and contact trace scheme might work, but not for New York where there are 10s of thousands of cases, so what they're looking for is to flatten the # cases down to a manageable level and then "open the valve" carefully. We haven't done this before, and the last thing anybody wants now is to go back to square 1. They're going to be gradually changing things, re-opening transport, schools, expanding the # of jobs that are are considered essential and watch the dial, ie the # of hospitalizations, doesn't shoot back up too much.

Except most of Europe will have done so by the time we do, and we can easily incorporate what they are doing. You’re statement that we haven’t done this before is technically correct, but it’s deficient in meaning because others will have.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

You’re statement that we haven’t done this before is technically correct

....
Is it? Well, we don't know yet, but some of the European COVID-19 mortality estimates (sub 0.5%) are running with this...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/15/coronavirus_lessons_fact_and_reason_vs_paranoia_and_fear_.html

Coronavirus Lessons: Fact and Reason vs. Paranoia and Fear
By William J. Bennett & Seth Leibsohn April 15, 2020

Given the most recent mortality rates and modeling, it appears that the death toll in America from coronavirus will end up looking a lot like the annual fatality numbers from the flu. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Washington state is now projecting 68,841 potential deaths in America. It is also estimating lower ranges than that. The flu season of 2017-2018 took 61,099 American lives. For this we have scared the hell out of the American people, shut down the economy, ended over 17 million jobs, taken trillions of dollars out of the economy, closed places of worship, and massively disrupted civic life as we know it. Some of our major public officials tell us, still, that there will be no returning to a status quo, that we will have to get used to a new normal. We strongly disagree with that mindset.

A panic and hysteria over a pandemic that does not look to be what so many frightened us into thinking has radically degraded this country. What should be the major lessons learned here? How did we go from an ethos of “Let’s Roll!” when America was hit by a major attack from outside forces two decades ago to “Let’s roll up in a ball”?

Yup, looks like it won't even hit 0.0003 as a fraction of the US population.

Yup, looks like it won't even hit 0.0003 as a fraction of the US population.

And that .0003 includes people so infirm they would have died from any further illness (or no illness at all), and those who died from other causes but had Covid-19, or symptoms of Covid-19, at the time they died.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/locked-new-york-state-now-17k-coronavirus-deaths-10-times-number-deaths-sweden-left-economy-open/

Locked-Down New York State Now Has 17K Coronavirus Deaths or 10 Times the Number of Deaths as Sweden – And They Left Their Economy Open

A key coronavirus model lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the pandemic in a recent update.

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after their previous calculation, noting that most people have followed the health guidelines put in place by both state and federal governments.

The total number of deaths from the model was 68,841 ... but was updated to 60,308

I am still only at 3 confirmed cases, 2 of them dying (other family/co-workers of friends). It's been OVER a month since those people had it, before lock downs. Medical professionals getting hours and pay cut. Anecdotal evidence that hospitals are so slow that some are closing and moving nurses and docs or laying them off.

How the fuck is this a pandemic? There's no vaccine for fucks sake and it's killing less than a bad flu season??? How does that compute to an intelligent person? There's zero evidence that opening back up would cause more deaths outside of simply avoiding retirement communities and nursing homes.. We were wide open when this was spreading. Day by day this seems more and more like an "engineered" crisis.

Communism doesn't work so well with an aging population of old smokers and the whole 1 child thing. You have to take care of them or there's unrest and there's not enough young people to support the old. Their solution was to just kill them with this virus and it got out of hand. I'm pretty sure this is what happened. They played dumb for months as people died, along with the WHO, and then realized they may have gone a bit too far once it got out of China. Old and chronically ill people cost a lot of money to communist.

I finally got one: a friend of my friend lives in Spain, and his 91 year old father died.

I’m not aware of any other cases.

thomasdong1776 says

Patrick says

betting it will be under the 2018 flu deaths

Well, you've lost that bet.

And who cares? It's an airborne virus that no POTUS can control. It could kill 70k or 7M in the states, but we can't survive just hiding in our homes. This is a prison fight, you have no place to run. You're going to get it.

thomasdong1776 says

Patrick says

betting it will be under the 2018 flu deaths

Well, you've lost that bet.

The 2017-2018 season recorded 80k deaths. Try again.

Right, bet not lost!

In other news:

The Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles County is likely far more widespread than previously thought, up to an estimated 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.

USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that an estimated 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.

This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported to the county through early April. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600, according to the Department of Public Health. The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

Similar in Boston:

Now comes yet another piece of evidence suggesting similarly huge under-reporting of cases. Researchers from Massachusetts General Hospital performed antibody tests on 200 random members of the public they found on the streets of Chelsea, near Boston. They discovered that 32 percent of them had antibodies suggesting they had already been infected with the virus — official figures show that just two percent of the local population had been confirmed to be suffering from the virus.

With such high infection rates, the actual fatality rate is correspondingly lower.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Los-Angeles-County-antibody-study-coronavirus-rate-15213966.php

https://reason.com/2020/04/21/if-covid-19-has-a-low-infection-fatality-rate-how-many-will-die/

In a more optimistic scenario, only 20 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is only 0.1 percent, thus implying that only 50,800 adult Americans would likely die of the disease. Considering that the current death toll from the epidemic as of April 21 is nearly 44,000, this optimistic scenario seems implausible. Now let's go full pessimism: Assume 60 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is 0.3 percent. In that case, the number of COVID-19 deaths among American adults would exceed 450,000.

Still betting it will be under 80K, the toll from the mostly-unreported flu of 2018.

Dong is just mad that his China virus was a dud.