patrick.net

jazz_music says

The virus is no joke judging by the number of mass graves seen all over.

Have you not been watching? @Shaman believes he may have had it. I think he's making a joke here. He can clarify if he wants.

I don't believe there's one person here that doesn't believe it's real. It's the reaction and many politicizing a virus. The reliance on experts, some of whom have provably fucked up models in the past. I don't have a citation here, but there are no peers to review right now because the peers don't know dick either. We can bloviate all we want on this topic, but there's not enough information outside of who it's killing. The reaction has been wrong on all levels. This isn't political.

jazz_music says

148 out of every 1 million Americans are currently dying.

I'll fix it again. The word million has basically the same amount of digits as.... 148 out of 1,000,000 versus 148 out of 1 Million.

Not sure if it's intentional, but optics matter. What we see and most will see is 3 digits versus 1. In reality it's 3 digits versus 7. And the 3 is a pretty low figure.

I get there's fear. I get it's real. But the obvious manipulation in plain sight at this point is beyond crazy.

The Democrats sold this as a killer virus that would kill 3% of all infected. Turns out that’s more like 0.1% much in line with the flu. Me and all my coworkers got sick in March, older guys affected more than younger guys. Nobody was hospitalized. Everyone was back at work in two weeks or less. We think we got it initially from a chinese guy on a container ship.
I had a bad sore throat for a few days and increasing fatigue to the point where I stayed home sick. Then it went to my chest and it hurt to breathe. Never got much worse, maybe because I took it easy and stayed home for a while.
Never was able to get a test.

This is Schröedinger’s virus. We can’t get tested and know unless we are dying. And we can’t assume we have it or have had it, but have to act like we have it and protect the world against ourselves in case we have it unless we haven’t had it, in which case we have to protect from getting it. You can’t get a test, but if you do get a test, the test might be faulty.
Either way there’s barely any way to know if you have Shröedinger’s virus.

If you don’t understand that joke, don’t EVER come at me about “science” ever again!

In Santa Cruz 2 old guys died out of the population of 273,000.

If this is why they threw everyone out of work, it was probably unnecessary.

@tim aurora
Here is a link to a relevant article about a study.
https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

@thomasdong1776

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says
By Susan Scutti, CNN

Updated 12:45 PM ET, Thu September 27, 2018

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Shaman says

@tim aurora
Here is a link to a relevant article about a study.
https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

And here is a quote from it:

As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent

Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases

I would be surprised if the total deaths don't exceed the 81k limit that Patrick stated before the epidemic is over. Keep in mind that the death rated reported is only the "confirmed" deaths due to covid. There are many deaths from covid that aren't known because of the lack of testing. These deaths would just be labeled natural causes. So the real death count might be significantly higher.

annoyed1 says

Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases

I would be surprised if the total deaths don't exceed the 81k limit that Patrick stated before the epidemic is over. Keep in mind that the death rated reported is only the "confirmed" deaths due to covid. There are many deaths from covid that aren't known because of the lack of testing. These deaths would just be labeled natural causes. So the real death count might be significantly higher.

It's actually much lower since people with underlying conditons are falsely counted. Germany does it right and does not count people with significant underlying health conditions. Plus the actual contact rate is up to 25% which lowers the death rate by a large magnitude.

Mell, your just discounting data that doesn't fit your political agendas. Fuck politics and follow the science. The confirmed cases are known to be covid infections because of the symptoms and positive tests for the virus. Trying to deflate the numbers by saying some of the people weren't in perfect health is ludicrous. They got infected and died. They would not have died if the pandemic didn't happen. Whether they had a condition that went from manageable to terminal because of covid is irrelevant. The bottom line is the same.

Stop making up your own statistics. Facts are facts and facts must be the basis of any conversation about the pandemic.

annoyed1 says

Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases

I sound like a broken record, but at ~50k deaths we are doing much better than France, which has ~20k deaths but less than 1/5th the US Population.

Spain and Italy post a similar number as well. And while Europe is slightly older, the median age is only a few years older than ours (38 vs 44 I believe).

Since those countries are fellow G-7 members, I think those are valid comparisons.

Rational and Reasonable conclusion: Our methods of doing things are more effective.

annoyed1 says

Facts are facts and facts must be the basis of any conversation about the pandemic.

Fact is: fucking Chinese fucks created the virus in their Wuhan lab and when it got out spent weeks attempting to cover-up thus robbing the rest of the world of the opportunity to respond. They must be held accountable for the mess they created.

annoyed1 says

Trying to deflate the numbers by saying some of the people weren't in perfect health is ludicrous. They got infected and died. They would not have died if the pandemic didn't happen.

Germany is wrong not to count an 85-year old with COPD and Diabetes, who survived one bout of Lung Cancer and permanently on oxygen, as dying of Covid19?

Even though they went into cardiac arrest 5 months ago when they caught the flu in the nursing home?

annoyed1 says

they had a condition that went from manageable to terminal because of covid

Or they had terminal conditions and Covid put the last nail in the coffin.

Shaman says

The Democrats sold this as a killer virus that would kill 3% of all infected. Turns out that’s more like 0.1% much in line with the flu. Me and all my coworkers got sick in March, older guys affected more than younger guys. Nobody was hospitalized. Everyone was back at work in two weeks or less. We think we got it initially from a chinese guy on a container ship.
I had a bad sore throat for a few days and increasing fatigue to the point where I stayed home sick. Then it went to my chest and it hurt to breathe. Never got much worse, maybe because I took it easy and stayed home for a while.
Never was able to get a test.

This is Schröedinger’s virus. We can’t get tested and know unless we are dying. And we can’t assume we have it or have had it, but have to act like we have it and protect the world against ourselves in case we have it unless we haven’t had it, in which case we have to protect from getting it. You can’t get a test, but if you do get a test, the ...

My wife and I live in NJ. We think we had it in mid February. I was tutoring a Chinese kid, both parents are FOB Chinese. They were on their deathbeds in the home at the time. A little more than a week later, that weekend, we got a mystery illness. I had a fever and didn't eat for 3 days. I didn't feel sick though. Just had no appetite. My wife, the same, no appetite at all. When she went for a run 5 days later, she couldn't run up a hill and was completely out of breath. My kids never got anything from us, which was the real mystery.

What percentage of NYS Covid-19 deaths aren't US Citizens?

NoCoupForYou says

I sound like a broken record, but at ~50k deaths we are doing much better than France, which has ~20k deaths but less than 1/5th the US Population.

And much worse than Communist China that has a population 4.3 times the US population and 1/10th of the infections and 1/1ths of the deaths. So maybe we should expect more of our government than the Chinese government. Comparing our country to the worst examples isn't exactly awe-inspiring.

TEOTWAWKI says

Fact is: fucking Chinese fucks created the virus in their Wuhan lab and when it got out spent weeks attempting to cover-up thus robbing the rest of the world of the opportunity to respond. They must be held accountable for the mess they created.

Really, a conspiracy theory?

Covid isn't a man-made virus. It's a virus that jumped the species boundary, most likely due to unsanitized butchering of exotic animals. Throughout history plagues have been caused by viruses that are pretty harmeless in livestock jumping to humans where they are deadly because they haven't been evolved to not kill human hosts. Viruses don't want to kill you. That's like destroying their food supply. But if they jump species they do kill the hosts. They still think their in cows, pigs, chickens, whatever.

The virus jumped species in China, but it's not a weapon. China would have been smarter if they were making bioweapons, but they don't have an incentive to do so. In fact, China's exports have been curtailed because of this. It goes against their interests.

That said, wet markets should be banned.

ThreeBays says

ThreeBays says

Still betting it will be under 80K, the toll from the mostly-unreported flu of 2018.

80K by when, end of the year?

OK, let's say by the end of the year.

Patrick says

OK, let's say by the end of the year.

I think sooner than that. It may double over the next month or two, especially if the stay-at-home orders are lifted. That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready. Some are in trials, but it will take time to release them to the public and ramp up production.

annoyed1 says

That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready

I got your vaccine best in class, clean and ethical development dont need to kill no stinking babies for fetus ingredients to produce... Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INO)

Santa Cruz County has no Wuhan virus pandemic.

The population is 273,000 and two geezers died and 18 went to the hospital.

logic says

annoyed1 says

Patrick says

OK, let's say by the end of the year.

I think sooner than that. It may double over the next month or two, especially if the stay-at-home orders are lifted. That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready. Some are in trials, but it will take time to release them to the public and ramp up production.

Sorry to break it to you Patrick, we will be at 80k deaths by mid May.

So? Similar to the flu except they stop counting in spring/summer otherwise you'd see similar rates. That number means nothing without putting it into context to how many would have died anyways and how many additional patients would have died by catching any infectious disease.

Sticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:



From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Less deadly than H3N2 of 1968 (Hong Kong Flu), which killed 100K of ~200M in the USA. Needless to say, the country was not shut down for weeks on end.

Khe Sahn, Apollo 8, Johnny Cash performs in Folsom Prison, Prague Spring, Chicago Convention Disaster, MLK Assassinated. The HK Flu doesn't even make "The Year 1968" lists most of the time.

It's a strain of a common virus family.

Excess deaths are still well below 80,000.

See https://patrick.net/post/1331934/2020-05-03-cdc-numbers-seem-to-show-that-johns-hopkins-is-significantly-over-reporting-wuhan-virus-deaths

ThreeBays says

Patrick says

Sticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:



From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Sadly we passed your max estimate. Many serology studies around the country are showing low digit infection numbers, so there's still a long way to go.

ty

Most German microbiologists agree that the majority of those who die during Covid-19 have preexisting conditions that make them not die OF Covid-19, but WITH Covid-19. Look at the diverging numbers for US vs Germany for example although even the US is clearly on the mends. It's clear that the US numbers are exaggerated. Every death is one too many as the saying goes, but to shut down the country over a cold/flu-like illness that is less deadly than the HongKong flu of 1969 which didn't make any headlines, when large gatherings such as Woodstock were held despite of zomg! pandemic! is utterly ridiculous and clearly politically motivated and will take many more lives and livelihoods in the long run.

logic says

What really sucks is that I was right about how much Trump would add to the deficit too.

@Patrick 's Model didn't take into account that Libtard Governors of NJ, PA, and NY would send COVID sufferers to nursing homes.

Nobody thought their PhDs in Social Warfare and Public Administration (aka "Public Health Experts") would be dumb enough to do such a thing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-sent-recovering-coronavirus-patients-to-nursing-homes-it-was-a-fatal-error-11589470773

Patrick says

Excess deaths are still well below 80,000.

Substantially below. We finally did a neighbor hang out last night playing yard games and drinking some beers with about 20 or so of us. Spoke with 2 nurses that I hadn't spoken with since February or so. The "conspiracy" theory of labeling deaths is 1,000% true. I have no doubt about that now.

The Chinese numbers are probably actually accurate which is fucking scary if you think about it. You don't have to believe me, but I trust these people and the deaths are intentionally being labeled COVID deaths if they test positive regardless of the actual cause of deaths to receive more government funds from old people that likely don't have private insurance. Say a patient succumbs to kidney or liver failure that's 70+ and on medicare/aid (whatever program it is), they test positive for COVID and die from kidney failure and it's called COVID even WITHOUT any respiratory issues.

I don't know if it's intentional or not that we're incentivizing COVID deaths, but it's happening for sure. I now have 2-3 direct witnesses of the practice occurring.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/

It seems to me that every journalist who avoided or failed the high school stories about science without math course has now decided they are expert epidemiologists. I have read asinine facts like even on single virus can infect you. Maybe in a wild scenario, but that is not how viral load of infection works. Thy publish meaningless terrifying articles to stir up more fear and urge (demand) everyone be socially responsible. OH, and wear that totally ineffective mask.

Also in SF they "want to see less than 6.3 infections per day for a sustained period" to call off lockdown measures?! WTF, in a county of 1MM at least 10 people catch a cold every day, esp. outside of the summer months, no?! That would only be 3650 colds per year in 1MM people, so WTF if they test the shit out of everyone they will never get below 10 for a relatively contagious virus until herd immunity is reached which can take another couple months. Imbeciles! and! deliberate! leftoid! asshole! dictators! hellbent on destroying the Trump economy and infringing on people civl liberties. Open up now!

Yes, cancer deaths, pneumonia deaths, deaths from the flu, and deaths from heart issues are all down and can be attributed to blindly ascribing Covid as the cause of death.

I don't know what the decline in deaths due to medical errors can be attributed to, however.

Misc says

Yes, cancer deaths, pneumonia deaths, deaths from the flu, and deaths from heart issues are all down and can be attributed to blindly ascribing Covid as the cause of death.

Interesting. Would you please share source(s) on this ?

I have heard that hospitals (which are in trouble finacially these days) are incentivised to lable deaths as Covid related.

logic says

WookieMan says

Patrick says

Excess deaths are still well below 80,000.

Substantially below.

Guess what? I'm saving 15% on my auto insurance. No, it's not because I switched to Geico. It's because auto accidents are down and hence auto accident deaths are down. I'm with a great insurance company that refunded me money for the fact that claims are down.

Did either of you ever stop to think that maybe this is why we are not over a baseline by 80k deaths?

I think your attempt at sarcasm/humor failed here unfortunately. Either way I have verifiable proof that deaths are being categorized falsely. Again, no one has to believe me, but it's fact at this point and it's undeniable. My sources are associated with every political leaning. There's no bias. Legitimate deaths, 100% caused by COVID are easily under 10K. Might be under 5K.

.

I'd like to know more about the life cycle of the virus and its mutation. The WHO and/or CDC have had about 6 months to study this virus and by now I would hope they could answer these questions.

Does it remain in an asymptomatic host for many weeks or months before it dies or continuously mutates to another strain ?

Is it only transmitted via "respiratory droplet" ?

Can wearing a mask significantly reduce the transmission even if with 6 feet such as sitting next to someone on a Greyhound bus or in a Southwest Airline passenger plane ?

Can it survive on warm surfaces or when exposed to sunlight or certain type of lighting ?

Can it surface if Lysol disinfectant or hydrogen peroxide vapor (HPV) is sprayed on it ?

.

logic says

Did either of you ever stop to think that maybe this is why we are not over a baseline by 80k deaths?

Just wait until the trailing effect of people NOT getting screened for cancer, heart issues, etc. is felt over the next year.

Somebody who was Stage I/II of some Cancer that was 90% reversible in March delays their screening until August... and finds themselves with Stage III and only a 40% chance now. Now multiply this by thousands.

For those who delayed that EKG or Blood Panel 6 months, may stroke out or massive heart attack before they ever get it now. Multiply that by thousands as well. Had they gone in March and got bypass surgery or simply Blood Pressure Meds, they may have lived another decade, maybe decades plural.

I'd put the over counting at about 20k for the US as a whole. This is based off the differences between the death rate between Germany (who is supposed to be only counting those where the Death is Covid only) and the US death rate where there have been stories about counting it a Covid death if it was just present. I get this off Worldometers. Here's a link for a state that's come clean about its over-reporting Covid deaths the percentage between old and new figures are roughly the same as the Worldometer figures.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/texas-cases-of-covid-19-increasing-by-thousands-since-reopening/ar-BB14b61B?ocid=msedgdhp