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The virus is no joke judging by the number of mass graves seen all over.
148 out of every 1 million Americans are currently dying.
@tim aurora
Here is a link to a relevant article about a study.
https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/
As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent
Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases
I would be surprised if the total deaths don't exceed the 81k limit that Patrick stated before the epidemic is over. Keep in mind that the death rated reported is only the "confirmed" deaths due to covid. There are many deaths from covid that aren't known because of the lack of testing. These deaths would just be labeled natural causes. So the real death count might be significantly higher.
Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases
Facts are facts and facts must be the basis of any conversation about the pandemic.
Trying to deflate the numbers by saying some of the people weren't in perfect health is ludicrous. They got infected and died. They would not have died if the pandemic didn't happen.
they had a condition that went from manageable to terminal because of covid
The Democrats sold this as a killer virus that would kill 3% of all infected. Turns out that’s more like 0.1% much in line with the flu. Me and all my coworkers got sick in March, older guys affected more than younger guys. Nobody was hospitalized. Everyone was back at work in two weeks or less. We think we got it initially from a chinese guy on a container ship.
I had a bad sore throat for a few days and increasing fatigue to the point where I stayed home sick. Then it went to my chest and it hurt to breathe. Never got much worse, maybe because I took it easy and stayed home for a while.
Never was able to get a test.
This is Schröedinger’s virus. We can’t get tested and know unless we are dying. And we can’t assume we have it or have had it, but have to act like we have it and protect the world against ourselves in case we have it unless we haven’t had it, in which case we have to protect from getting it. You can’t get a test, but if you do get a test, the ...
I sound like a broken record, but at ~50k deaths we are doing much better than France, which has ~20k deaths but less than 1/5th the US Population.
Fact is: fucking Chinese fucks created the virus in their Wuhan lab and when it got out spent weeks attempting to cover-up thus robbing the rest of the world of the opportunity to respond. They must be held accountable for the mess they created.
ThreeBays saysStill betting it will be under 80K, the toll from the mostly-unreported flu of 2018.
80K by when, end of the year?
OK, let's say by the end of the year.
That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready
annoyed1 saysPatrick saysOK, let's say by the end of the year.
I think sooner than that. It may double over the next month or two, especially if the stay-at-home orders are lifted. That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready. Some are in trials, but it will take time to release them to the public and ramp up production.
Sorry to break it to you Patrick, we will be at 80k deaths by mid May.
Patrick saystySticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:
From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Sadly we passed your max estimate. Many serology studies around the country are showing low digit infection numbers, so there's still a long way to go.
What really sucks is that I was right about how much Trump would add to the deficit too.
Excess deaths are still well below 80,000.
Yes, cancer deaths, pneumonia deaths, deaths from the flu, and deaths from heart issues are all down and can be attributed to blindly ascribing Covid as the cause of death.
WookieMan saysPatrick saysExcess deaths are still well below 80,000.
Substantially below.
Guess what? I'm saving 15% on my auto insurance. No, it's not because I switched to Geico. It's because auto accidents are down and hence auto accident deaths are down. I'm with a great insurance company that refunded me money for the fact that claims are down.
Did either of you ever stop to think that maybe this is why we are not over a baseline by 80k deaths?
Did either of you ever stop to think that maybe this is why we are not over a baseline by 80k deaths?
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Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?
Yes, 100 times smaller than 3 percent.
Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.
So, since 0.0086 of the US dies every year on average, this could bump up the US death rate by 3 / 86 = 3.5% this year.
Except not it wouldn't even be that much, because a large fraction of those who die weren't going to make it through a normal 2020 anyway.
It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for. Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and no one even blinked.