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mell saysTest show 20% already have antibodies. How's that baseless
Where, what towns? Everywhere?
It's beyond clear there's not equal distribution.
The study also makes new statements on the coronavirus mortality rate. So far, the renowned Johns Hopkins University assumes that 1.98 percent of those infected die in Germany. Due to the fact that the Heinsberger study now also includes previously undiscovered infections and the total number of corona sufferers is higher, the death rate for Gangelt is only 0.37 percent.
A total of around 1,000 people took part in the study. The interim results now available come from around half of the subjects.
Coronavirus testing in Iceland determined that half of the citizens who tested positive showed no symptoms.
Iceland has tested 10% of its population for the coronavirus, more than any other country, and the data reveals that roughly half of those who tested positive aren’t showing any symptoms, which is double the Centers for Disease Control’s most recent estimate...
Iceland had more than 1,600 coronavirus infections; as of April 11, seven have ended in deaths.
That test showed only 1.5% of samples turned out positive. Hard to tell much without knowing the specificity (false positive rate) of the antibody test they did. If it's 1% false positive, then you get around the same ballpark fatality rate as the German and Iceland studies. Sounds like false negative rate was 25% so it's a shitty test.
Onvacation saysDo you want more people to die?
No, why would you think that?
Spain is reopening after the death toll dropped to 500 per day. Italy reopens stores tomorrow.
https://patrick.net/post/1331217/?c=1661725
I expect suddenly, what Europeans are doing will become less important to the US DemMedia.
We're pretty much talking past each-other at this point. Rather than turn to arguing about the person, I suggest focusing on countering my arguments.
If not, then can you give an argument for why NY and Illinois would have different susceptibility to this virus?
mell saysIt likely has spread evenly, you can't really stop the spread of a contagious virus. The reason NY has so many cases is simple, the population density and public transportation, also they were late to test, they likely had many cases already. CA is not as densely populated and relies heavily on cars. Weather is a factor as well, the warmer, sunnier and more humid the less spread.
You're contradicting yourself here. It sounds to me like you're saying it has NOT spread evenly -- it's spread to a higher % of people in NY because of density and public transportation.
Patrick, ever considered starting a Discord?
what you see in your network and nurses and then I explained why I think you need to think beyond what you see.
If not, then can you give an argument for why NY and Illinois would have different susceptibility to this virus?
ThreeBays saysmell saysIt likely has spread evenly, you can't really stop the spread of a contagious virus. The reason NY has so many cases is simple, the population density and public transportation, also they were late to test, they likely had many cases already. CA is not as densely populated and relies heavily on cars. Weather is a factor as well, the warmer, sunnier and more humid the less spread.
You're contradicting yourself here. It sounds to me like you're saying it has NOT spread evenly -- it's spread to a higher % of people in NY because of density and public transportation.
Slow down and re-read the comment. Saying it spreads evenly, doesn't mean everywhere. He explicitly states the warm weather as a factor and population density. The rate of spread in Montana, may be different than the spread...
So what's the reason infections slowed down there? It has to be due to (b). It can't be (a), because of (1).
I agree we want to open asap. The situation stinks for many. My brother lost 25% of his pay, and almost everyone else in his company furloughed. The shutdown affects our sanity. The economic impact also affected our savings, although taking a long term view that we'll recover I'm less worried about that.
Btw I found Cuomo's update on reopening plans very enlightening. If your city doesn't have that many cases, a test and contact trace scheme might work, but not for New York where there are 10s of thousands of cases, so what they're looking for is to flatten the # cases down to a manageable level and then "open the valve" carefully. We haven't done this before, and the last thing anybody wants now is to go back to square 1. They're going to be gradually changing things, re-opening transport, schools, expanding the # of jobs that are are considered essential and watch the dial, ie the # of hospitalizations, doesn't shoot back up too much.
You’re statement that we haven’t done this before is technically correct....
Coronavirus Lessons: Fact and Reason vs. Paranoia and Fear
By William J. Bennett & Seth Leibsohn April 15, 2020
Given the most recent mortality rates and modeling, it appears that the death toll in America from coronavirus will end up looking a lot like the annual fatality numbers from the flu. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Washington state is now projecting 68,841 potential deaths in America. It is also estimating lower ranges than that. The flu season of 2017-2018 took 61,099 American lives. For this we have scared the hell out of the American people, shut down the economy, ended over 17 million jobs, taken trillions of dollars out of the economy, closed places of worship, and massively disrupted civic life as we know it. Some of our major public officials tell us, still, that there will be no returning to a status quo, that we will have to get used to a new normal. We strongly disagree with that mindset.
A panic and hysteria over a pandemic that does not look to be what so many frightened us into thinking has radically degraded this country. What should be the major lessons learned here? How did we go from an ethos of “Let’s Roll!” when America was hit by a major attack from outside forces two decades ago to “Let’s roll up in a ball”?
Locked-Down New York State Now Has 17K Coronavirus Deaths or 10 Times the Number of Deaths as Sweden – And They Left Their Economy Open
A key coronavirus model lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the pandemic in a recent update.
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after their previous calculation, noting that most people have followed the health guidelines put in place by both state and federal governments.
The total number of deaths from the model was 68,841 ... but was updated to 60,308
Patrick saysbetting it will be under the 2018 flu deaths
Well, you've lost that bet.
Patrick saysbetting it will be under the 2018 flu deaths
Well, you've lost that bet.
The Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles County is likely far more widespread than previously thought, up to an estimated 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.
USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that an estimated 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.
This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported to the county through early April. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600, according to the Department of Public Health. The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.
Now comes yet another piece of evidence suggesting similarly huge under-reporting of cases. Researchers from Massachusetts General Hospital performed antibody tests on 200 random members of the public they found on the streets of Chelsea, near Boston. They discovered that 32 percent of them had antibodies suggesting they had already been infected with the virus — official figures show that just two percent of the local population had been confirmed to be suffering from the virus.
In a more optimistic scenario, only 20 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is only 0.1 percent, thus implying that only 50,800 adult Americans would likely die of the disease. Considering that the current death toll from the epidemic as of April 21 is nearly 44,000, this optimistic scenario seems implausible. Now let's go full pessimism: Assume 60 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is 0.3 percent. In that case, the number of COVID-19 deaths among American adults would exceed 450,000.
The virus is no joke judging by the number of mass graves seen all over.
148 out of every 1 million Americans are currently dying.
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Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?
Yes, 100 times smaller than 3 percent.
Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.
So, since 0.0086 of the US dies every year on average, this could bump up the US death rate by 3 / 86 = 3.5% this year.
Except not it wouldn't even be that much, because a large fraction of those who die weren't going to make it through a normal 2020 anyway.
It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for. Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and no one even blinked.