patrick.net

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/locked-new-york-state-now-17k-coronavirus-deaths-10-times-number-deaths-sweden-left-economy-open/

Locked-Down New York State Now Has 17K Coronavirus Deaths or 10 Times the Number of Deaths as Sweden – And They Left Their Economy Open

A key coronavirus model lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the pandemic in a recent update.

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after their previous calculation, noting that most people have followed the health guidelines put in place by both state and federal governments.

The total number of deaths from the model was 68,841 ... but was updated to 60,308

I am still only at 3 confirmed cases, 2 of them dying (other family/co-workers of friends). It's been OVER a month since those people had it, before lock downs. Medical professionals getting hours and pay cut. Anecdotal evidence that hospitals are so slow that some are closing and moving nurses and docs or laying them off.

How the fuck is this a pandemic? There's no vaccine for fucks sake and it's killing less than a bad flu season??? How does that compute to an intelligent person? There's zero evidence that opening back up would cause more deaths outside of simply avoiding retirement communities and nursing homes.. We were wide open when this was spreading. Day by day this seems more and more like an "engineered" crisis.

Communism doesn't work so well with an aging population of old smokers and the whole 1 child thing. You have to take care of them or there's unrest and there's not enough young people to support the old. Their solution was to just kill them with this virus and it got out of hand. I'm pretty sure this is what happened. They played dumb for months as people died, along with the WHO, and then realized they may have gone a bit too far once it got out of China. Old and chronically ill people cost a lot of money to communist.

I finally got one: a friend of my friend lives in Spain, and his 91 year old father died.

I’m not aware of any other cases.

thomasdong1776 says

Patrick says

betting it will be under the 2018 flu deaths

Well, you've lost that bet.

And who cares? It's an airborne virus that no POTUS can control. It could kill 70k or 7M in the states, but we can't survive just hiding in our homes. This is a prison fight, you have no place to run. You're going to get it.

thomasdong1776 says

Patrick says

betting it will be under the 2018 flu deaths

Well, you've lost that bet.

The 2017-2018 season recorded 80k deaths. Try again.

Right, bet not lost!

In other news:

The Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles County is likely far more widespread than previously thought, up to an estimated 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.

USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that an estimated 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.

This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported to the county through early April. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600, according to the Department of Public Health. The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

Similar in Boston:

Now comes yet another piece of evidence suggesting similarly huge under-reporting of cases. Researchers from Massachusetts General Hospital performed antibody tests on 200 random members of the public they found on the streets of Chelsea, near Boston. They discovered that 32 percent of them had antibodies suggesting they had already been infected with the virus — official figures show that just two percent of the local population had been confirmed to be suffering from the virus.

With such high infection rates, the actual fatality rate is correspondingly lower.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Los-Angeles-County-antibody-study-coronavirus-rate-15213966.php

https://reason.com/2020/04/21/if-covid-19-has-a-low-infection-fatality-rate-how-many-will-die/

In a more optimistic scenario, only 20 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is only 0.1 percent, thus implying that only 50,800 adult Americans would likely die of the disease. Considering that the current death toll from the epidemic as of April 21 is nearly 44,000, this optimistic scenario seems implausible. Now let's go full pessimism: Assume 60 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is 0.3 percent. In that case, the number of COVID-19 deaths among American adults would exceed 450,000.

Still betting it will be under 80K, the toll from the mostly-unreported flu of 2018.

Dong is just mad that his China virus was a dud.

jazz_music says

The virus is no joke judging by the number of mass graves seen all over.

Have you not been watching? @Shaman believes he may have had it. I think he's making a joke here. He can clarify if he wants.

I don't believe there's one person here that doesn't believe it's real. It's the reaction and many politicizing a virus. The reliance on experts, some of whom have provably fucked up models in the past. I don't have a citation here, but there are no peers to review right now because the peers don't know dick either. We can bloviate all we want on this topic, but there's not enough information outside of who it's killing. The reaction has been wrong on all levels. This isn't political.

jazz_music says

148 out of every 1 million Americans are currently dying.

I'll fix it again. The word million has basically the same amount of digits as.... 148 out of 1,000,000 versus 148 out of 1 Million.

Not sure if it's intentional, but optics matter. What we see and most will see is 3 digits versus 1. In reality it's 3 digits versus 7. And the 3 is a pretty low figure.

I get there's fear. I get it's real. But the obvious manipulation in plain sight at this point is beyond crazy.

The Democrats sold this as a killer virus that would kill 3% of all infected. Turns out that’s more like 0.1% much in line with the flu. Me and all my coworkers got sick in March, older guys affected more than younger guys. Nobody was hospitalized. Everyone was back at work in two weeks or less. We think we got it initially from a chinese guy on a container ship.
I had a bad sore throat for a few days and increasing fatigue to the point where I stayed home sick. Then it went to my chest and it hurt to breathe. Never got much worse, maybe because I took it easy and stayed home for a while.
Never was able to get a test.

This is Schröedinger’s virus. We can’t get tested and know unless we are dying. And we can’t assume we have it or have had it, but have to act like we have it and protect the world against ourselves in case we have it unless we haven’t had it, in which case we have to protect from getting it. You can’t get a test, but if you do get a test, the test might be faulty.
Either way there’s barely any way to know if you have Shröedinger’s virus.

If you don’t understand that joke, don’t EVER come at me about “science” ever again!

In Santa Cruz 2 old guys died out of the population of 273,000.

If this is why they threw everyone out of work, it was probably unnecessary.

@tim aurora
Here is a link to a relevant article about a study.
https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

@thomasdong1776

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says
By Susan Scutti, CNN

Updated 12:45 PM ET, Thu September 27, 2018

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Shaman says

@tim aurora
Here is a link to a relevant article about a study.
https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

And here is a quote from it:

As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent

Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases

I would be surprised if the total deaths don't exceed the 81k limit that Patrick stated before the epidemic is over. Keep in mind that the death rated reported is only the "confirmed" deaths due to covid. There are many deaths from covid that aren't known because of the lack of testing. These deaths would just be labeled natural causes. So the real death count might be significantly higher.

annoyed1 says

Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases

I would be surprised if the total deaths don't exceed the 81k limit that Patrick stated before the epidemic is over. Keep in mind that the death rated reported is only the "confirmed" deaths due to covid. There are many deaths from covid that aren't known because of the lack of testing. These deaths would just be labeled natural causes. So the real death count might be significantly higher.

It's actually much lower since people with underlying conditons are falsely counted. Germany does it right and does not count people with significant underlying health conditions. Plus the actual contact rate is up to 25% which lowers the death rate by a large magnitude.

Mell, your just discounting data that doesn't fit your political agendas. Fuck politics and follow the science. The confirmed cases are known to be covid infections because of the symptoms and positive tests for the virus. Trying to deflate the numbers by saying some of the people weren't in perfect health is ludicrous. They got infected and died. They would not have died if the pandemic didn't happen. Whether they had a condition that went from manageable to terminal because of covid is irrelevant. The bottom line is the same.

Stop making up your own statistics. Facts are facts and facts must be the basis of any conversation about the pandemic.

annoyed1 says

Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases

I sound like a broken record, but at ~50k deaths we are doing much better than France, which has ~20k deaths but less than 1/5th the US Population.

Spain and Italy post a similar number as well. And while Europe is slightly older, the median age is only a few years older than ours (38 vs 44 I believe).

Since those countries are fellow G-7 members, I think those are valid comparisons.

Rational and Reasonable conclusion: Our methods of doing things are more effective.

annoyed1 says

Facts are facts and facts must be the basis of any conversation about the pandemic.

Fact is: fucking Chinese fucks created the virus in their Wuhan lab and when it got out spent weeks attempting to cover-up thus robbing the rest of the world of the opportunity to respond. They must be held accountable for the mess they created.

annoyed1 says

Trying to deflate the numbers by saying some of the people weren't in perfect health is ludicrous. They got infected and died. They would not have died if the pandemic didn't happen.

Germany is wrong not to count an 85-year old with COPD and Diabetes, who survived one bout of Lung Cancer and permanently on oxygen, as dying of Covid19?

Even though they went into cardiac arrest 5 months ago when they caught the flu in the nursing home?

annoyed1 says

they had a condition that went from manageable to terminal because of covid

Or they had terminal conditions and Covid put the last nail in the coffin.

Shaman says

The Democrats sold this as a killer virus that would kill 3% of all infected. Turns out that’s more like 0.1% much in line with the flu. Me and all my coworkers got sick in March, older guys affected more than younger guys. Nobody was hospitalized. Everyone was back at work in two weeks or less. We think we got it initially from a chinese guy on a container ship.
I had a bad sore throat for a few days and increasing fatigue to the point where I stayed home sick. Then it went to my chest and it hurt to breathe. Never got much worse, maybe because I took it easy and stayed home for a while.
Never was able to get a test.

This is Schröedinger’s virus. We can’t get tested and know unless we are dying. And we can’t assume we have it or have had it, but have to act like we have it and protect the world against ourselves in case we have it unless we haven’t had it, in which case we have to protect from getting it. You can’t get a test, but if you do get a test, the ...

My wife and I live in NJ. We think we had it in mid February. I was tutoring a Chinese kid, both parents are FOB Chinese. They were on their deathbeds in the home at the time. A little more than a week later, that weekend, we got a mystery illness. I had a fever and didn't eat for 3 days. I didn't feel sick though. Just had no appetite. My wife, the same, no appetite at all. When she went for a run 5 days later, she couldn't run up a hill and was completely out of breath. My kids never got anything from us, which was the real mystery.

What percentage of NYS Covid-19 deaths aren't US Citizens?

NoCoupForYou says

I sound like a broken record, but at ~50k deaths we are doing much better than France, which has ~20k deaths but less than 1/5th the US Population.

And much worse than Communist China that has a population 4.3 times the US population and 1/10th of the infections and 1/1ths of the deaths. So maybe we should expect more of our government than the Chinese government. Comparing our country to the worst examples isn't exactly awe-inspiring.

TEOTWAWKI says

Fact is: fucking Chinese fucks created the virus in their Wuhan lab and when it got out spent weeks attempting to cover-up thus robbing the rest of the world of the opportunity to respond. They must be held accountable for the mess they created.

Really, a conspiracy theory?

Covid isn't a man-made virus. It's a virus that jumped the species boundary, most likely due to unsanitized butchering of exotic animals. Throughout history plagues have been caused by viruses that are pretty harmeless in livestock jumping to humans where they are deadly because they haven't been evolved to not kill human hosts. Viruses don't want to kill you. That's like destroying their food supply. But if they jump species they do kill the hosts. They still think their in cows, pigs, chickens, whatever.

The virus jumped species in China, but it's not a weapon. China would have been smarter if they were making bioweapons, but they don't have an incentive to do so. In fact, China's exports have been curtailed because of this. It goes against their interests.

That said, wet markets should be banned.

ThreeBays says

ThreeBays says

Still betting it will be under 80K, the toll from the mostly-unreported flu of 2018.

80K by when, end of the year?

OK, let's say by the end of the year.

Patrick says

OK, let's say by the end of the year.

I think sooner than that. It may double over the next month or two, especially if the stay-at-home orders are lifted. That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready. Some are in trials, but it will take time to release them to the public and ramp up production.

annoyed1 says

That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready

I got your vaccine best in class, clean and ethical development dont need to kill no stinking babies for fetus ingredients to produce... Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INO)

Santa Cruz County has no Wuhan virus pandemic.

The population is 273,000 and two geezers died and 18 went to the hospital.

logic says

annoyed1 says

Patrick says

OK, let's say by the end of the year.

I think sooner than that. It may double over the next month or two, especially if the stay-at-home orders are lifted. That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready. Some are in trials, but it will take time to release them to the public and ramp up production.

Sorry to break it to you Patrick, we will be at 80k deaths by mid May.

So? Similar to the flu except they stop counting in spring/summer otherwise you'd see similar rates. That number means nothing without putting it into context to how many would have died anyways and how many additional patients would have died by catching any infectious disease.

Sticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:



From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Less deadly than H3N2 of 1968 (Hong Kong Flu), which killed 100K of ~200M in the USA. Needless to say, the country was not shut down for weeks on end.

Khe Sahn, Apollo 8, Johnny Cash performs in Folsom Prison, Prague Spring, Chicago Convention Disaster, MLK Assassinated. The HK Flu doesn't even make "The Year 1968" lists most of the time.

It's a strain of a common virus family.

Excess deaths are still well below 80,000.

See https://patrick.net/post/1331934/2020-05-03-cdc-numbers-seem-to-show-that-johns-hopkins-is-significantly-over-reporting-wuhan-virus-deaths

ThreeBays says

Patrick says

Sticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:



From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Sadly we passed your max estimate. Many serology studies around the country are showing low digit infection numbers, so there's still a long way to go.

ty

Most German microbiologists agree that the majority of those who die during Covid-19 have preexisting conditions that make them not die OF Covid-19, but WITH Covid-19. Look at the diverging numbers for US vs Germany for example although even the US is clearly on the mends. It's clear that the US numbers are exaggerated. Every death is one too many as the saying goes, but to shut down the country over a cold/flu-like illness that is less deadly than the HongKong flu of 1969 which didn't make any headlines, when large gatherings such as Woodstock were held despite of zomg! pandemic! is utterly ridiculous and clearly politically motivated and will take many more lives and livelihoods in the long run.