« First « Previous Comments 223 - 262 of 376 Next » Last » Search these comments
A key coronavirus model lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the pandemic in a recent update.
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after their previous calculation, noting that most people have followed the health guidelines put in place by both state and federal governments.
The total number of deaths from the model was 68,841 ... but was updated to 60,308
Patrick saysbetting it will be under the 2018 flu deaths
Well, you've lost that bet.
Patrick saysbetting it will be under the 2018 flu deaths
Well, you've lost that bet.
The Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles County is likely far more widespread than previously thought, up to an estimated 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.
USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that an estimated 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.
This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported to the county through early April. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600, according to the Department of Public Health. The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.
Now comes yet another piece of evidence suggesting similarly huge under-reporting of cases. Researchers from Massachusetts General Hospital performed antibody tests on 200 random members of the public they found on the streets of Chelsea, near Boston. They discovered that 32 percent of them had antibodies suggesting they had already been infected with the virus — official figures show that just two percent of the local population had been confirmed to be suffering from the virus.
In a more optimistic scenario, only 20 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is only 0.1 percent, thus implying that only 50,800 adult Americans would likely die of the disease. Considering that the current death toll from the epidemic as of April 21 is nearly 44,000, this optimistic scenario seems implausible. Now let's go full pessimism: Assume 60 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is 0.3 percent. In that case, the number of COVID-19 deaths among American adults would exceed 450,000.
The virus is no joke judging by the number of mass graves seen all over.
148 out of every 1 million Americans are currently dying.
@tim aurora
Here is a link to a relevant article about a study.
https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/
As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent
Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases
I would be surprised if the total deaths don't exceed the 81k limit that Patrick stated before the epidemic is over. Keep in mind that the death rated reported is only the "confirmed" deaths due to covid. There are many deaths from covid that aren't known because of the lack of testing. These deaths would just be labeled natural causes. So the real death count might be significantly higher.
Deaths are at 46k in the US right now, but still rising quickly. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases
Facts are facts and facts must be the basis of any conversation about the pandemic.
Trying to deflate the numbers by saying some of the people weren't in perfect health is ludicrous. They got infected and died. They would not have died if the pandemic didn't happen.
they had a condition that went from manageable to terminal because of covid
The Democrats sold this as a killer virus that would kill 3% of all infected. Turns out that’s more like 0.1% much in line with the flu. Me and all my coworkers got sick in March, older guys affected more than younger guys. Nobody was hospitalized. Everyone was back at work in two weeks or less. We think we got it initially from a chinese guy on a container ship.
I had a bad sore throat for a few days and increasing fatigue to the point where I stayed home sick. Then it went to my chest and it hurt to breathe. Never got much worse, maybe because I took it easy and stayed home for a while.
Never was able to get a test.
This is Schröedinger’s virus. We can’t get tested and know unless we are dying. And we can’t assume we have it or have had it, but have to act like we have it and protect the world against ourselves in case we have it unless we haven’t had it, in which case we have to protect from getting it. You can’t get a test, but if you do get a test, the ...
I sound like a broken record, but at ~50k deaths we are doing much better than France, which has ~20k deaths but less than 1/5th the US Population.
Fact is: fucking Chinese fucks created the virus in their Wuhan lab and when it got out spent weeks attempting to cover-up thus robbing the rest of the world of the opportunity to respond. They must be held accountable for the mess they created.
ThreeBays saysStill betting it will be under 80K, the toll from the mostly-unreported flu of 2018.
80K by when, end of the year?
OK, let's say by the end of the year.
That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready
annoyed1 saysPatrick saysOK, let's say by the end of the year.
I think sooner than that. It may double over the next month or two, especially if the stay-at-home orders are lifted. That sucks, but we still have no vaccine ready. Some are in trials, but it will take time to release them to the public and ramp up production.
Sorry to break it to you Patrick, we will be at 80k deaths by mid May.
Patrick saystySticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:
From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Sadly we passed your max estimate. Many serology studies around the country are showing low digit infection numbers, so there's still a long way to go.
What really sucks is that I was right about how much Trump would add to the deficit too.
« First « Previous Comments 223 - 262 of 376 Next » Last » Search these comments
Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?
Yes, 100 times smaller than 3 percent.
Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.
So, since 0.0086 of the US dies every year on average, this could bump up the US death rate by 3 / 86 = 3.5% this year.
Except not it wouldn't even be that much, because a large fraction of those who die weren't going to make it through a normal 2020 anyway.
It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for. Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and no one even blinked.