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Writing checks you can't cash

By Misc follow Misc   2020 Apr 29, 3:09am 494 views   15 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    

Ready for some back of the napkin numbers?

In California, the governor pretty much has destroyed vast sectors of the economy. 2.7 million have applied for unemployment benefits over the last 5 weeks and more are expected to over the coming weeks. Currently the unemployment rate is about 18%. Last week about $2 billion was spent on unemployment benefits by the state. This is the week where the reserve fund for unemployment runs out. Normally when this happens the State borrows from the US Treasury. However, during the Great Recession California borrowed $10.2 billion, and did not repay the money. This forced the Federal government to levy a special tax on California businesses until the funds were repaid. If you were Trump, would you lend money to a proven deadbeat, who somehow has money to give to illegals?

On the revenue side, state taxes on average dropped 17% during the Great Recession. With California's heavy reliance on capital gains taxes, we can assume about the same drop in revenue even though sales taxes will be hit harder. Let's figure about a $35 billion drop in revenue. Now some of this was offset by the stimulus bill where California got $15.3 billion. California also has a rainy day fund of about $20 billion which will even this area out for the first year of the recession.

Medi Cal estimates are the hardest to figure. They were estimated to be $23.5 billion for the year, but that was with a 4% unemployment rate. There were also separate provisions for hospitals in the stimulus bill, and I'm sure a big chunk of that will go to Medi Cal. Let's just hope the Federal government covers the increase in this area through its stimulus program.

California's budget for the year is about $200 billion. With this level of unemployment, figure conservatively about $70 billion over the course of a year for unemployment benefits. This assumes benefits stop at 6 months of unemployment, the unemployment percentage doesn't go dramatically higher, and there is reasonable churn in the unemployed populous. It is very easy to furlough, fire or lay off workers. To get those jobs back takes time especially when the small businesses have been slaughtered. These funds for unemployment have to come from somewhere or the checks bounce.
1   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 29, 5:52am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The money is gone in all states. Just think about baseball as one example. If they miraculously get in a 100 game season this year, that's 82 games that are poof, gone. Concessions, tickets, parking, merchandise, etc... All that stuff is taxed. Those other 82 games will never get played.

Chicago has two baseball teams for christ sake. Half those games would have been at home, so 41, well actually 82 now that I think about it because two teams. Would have been probably 50k attendance on average between the two teams. ~4.1M fans/tickets sold that all have an amusement tax attached to it (9%). Let's low ball it and say $40/ticket. $164,000,000 in ticket sales. $14.760,000 on amusement tax, poof, gone.

Everything in the stadium is sales taxed. Average fan probably spends maybe $20 per fan. That's $82M in merchandise, food, etc. and I'm probably low on the average. 10.25% sales tax. $8,405,000 sales tax, poof, gone.

$23,165,000 in tax revenue gone and I'm not even accounting for things like parking, cabs, bars around the stadium, food for tailgating, etc. That is a conservative estimate on the funds the City of Chicago will lose from this shut on ONLY baseball.

You can't play more games to make up for it. That $23M is in essence gone. These are taxes on your time spent doing it. Not enough time to make them up. And this is just one example. There still would have been basketball and hockey games in Chicago. So it's easily in excess of $30M gone from Chicago tax coffers.
2   PeopleUnited   ignore (1)   2020 Apr 29, 6:16am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

In Japan, rather than resorting to shutdowns, layoffs and the resulting bankrupt states, municipalities and businesses (probably many citizens too) they instead encouged people to avoid the three C’s: crowds, close contact, and confined spaces. Check out how much better they are doing over there in a densely populated country with a large elderly population.
3   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 29, 7:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

PeopleUnited says
In Japan, rather than resorting to shutdowns, layoffs and the resulting bankrupt states, municipalities and businesses (probably many citizens too) they instead encouged people to avoid the three C’s: crowds, close contact, and confined spaces. Check out how much better they are doing over there in a densely populated country with a large elderly population.

Not saying you're wrong, as I have no clue about Japan besides the density you mention. I think there's a clear divergence around the world as to who/how to attribute deaths for Covid. Japan was obviously holding out hope for the Olympics to happen. Is there a chance they were fibbing numbers and now can't backtrack because they'd be caught? Population loses trust in their government then?

Just a thought. People keep listing the number of dead here in the states overall, when half of them are basically in one small regional area, NY. So why lump everyone in? My county is doing it pretty well sitting near a somewhat hotspot of Chicago. Only having one 1 death, under 100 confirmed cases out of 105k people.

Isn't Japan super clean as well in the major cities? I've never been. Culturally they're also kind of psychotic if you look at WWII. I wouldn't put it past them to not care about the deaths of the old and miscount/mis-label their dead.

TL:DR - Every country has their own motivations to lie on these numbers. It's difficult to trust any of it. Even our own. When they die, if we're not testing for other diseases and only covid, that's disingenuous to label as a covid death.

Either way I think we agree we need to open up.
4   PeopleUnited   ignore (1)   2020 Apr 29, 8:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Agreed. And agreed. For all we know everyone is lying/misrepresenting the real infection and mortality data. CNN (aka XiNN) reports that USA is lagging other countries on testing by citing the number of tests administered per 1000 residents. But how is it even reasonable to say we are lagging when we have tested more people in aggregate than any other country. Plus how can you compare Italy to Wyoming? It is ridiculous!!!! Plus why even count tests that countries administered which they bought from China and are about as reliable as the CCP infection data and their insistence that there is no human to human transmission. Face it, they are all feeding us Bravo Sierra every minute of every day. Where is the truth?

The only place I know to find it is the King James Bible. We are seeing the prophecies of Daniel, Ezekiel and Revelation unfolding before our eyes.

“This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come. For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, Without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, incontinent, fierce, despisers of those that are good, Traitors, heady, highminded, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God; Having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof: from such turn away. For of this sort are they which creep into houses, and lead captive silly women laden with sins, led away with divers lusts, Ever learning, and never able to come to the knowledge of the truth.”
‭‭2 Timothy‬ ‭3:1-7‬ ‭KJV‬‬
https://www.bible.com/1/2ti.3.1-7.kjv
5   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Apr 29, 8:59am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
In California, the governor pretty much has destroyed vast sectors of the economy


Remember this at the next election.
6   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Apr 29, 9:01am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

PeopleUnited says
In Japan, rather than resorting to shutdowns, layoffs and the resulting bankrupt states, municipalities and businesses (probably many citizens too) they instead encouged people to avoid the three C’s: crowds, close contact, and confined spaces. Check out how much better they are doing over there in a densely populated country with a large elderly population.


Absolutely.

The measures enforced here were nothing short of wanton criminal destruction. A much more moderate approach was called for.

It's like they burned down the house to kill a cockroach.
7   PeopleUnited   ignore (1)   2020 Apr 29, 9:40am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says

The measures enforced here were nothing short of wanton criminal destruction. A much more moderate approach was called for.

It's like they burned down the house to kill a cockroach.


Yep, and the cockroach survived!
8   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 29, 10:13am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

HEYYOU says
Don't like the shutdown,get out there & mingle without a mask.
Don't like California,move to a Socialist shithole state.

Cuomo said today:
'Kentucky gets $36,000,000,000 more from the govt. than it pays in taxes.
Florida gets $30,000,000,000 more from the govt.than it pays in taxes.'

Red State SOCIALISM!
Let's keep an eye on the Confederate states finances.

How about the destruction of slaughterhouses in Red States? It's Newsome's fault

Because you increase your cost of living through taxation and people have to pay more, and therefore need to earn more to live, well.... I think you get the point.
9   Misc   ignore (0)   2020 Apr 29, 11:16am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Cuomo must have forgotten about the trillions New York financial entities get from the Federal Reserve.
10   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 29, 11:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
Cuomo must have forgotten about the trillions New York financial entities get from the Federal Reserve.

I don't even know why he's concerned about other states anyway? Maybe take care of the people in yours that are dropping dead. Money is a piece of the pie, there are much more important thing than that in this moment. Cry your crocodile tears somewhere else and do work. Talk money later. You can't buy your way out of a shit hospital system and dirty city.
11   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Apr 29, 12:15pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
Isn't Japan super clean as well in the major cities? I've never been. Culturally they're also kind of psychotic if you look at WWII.


Their culture basically prohibits touching other people, so that probably helps keep disease transmission down there.

They don't shake hands, they bow from a respectful distance.

They don't hug and kiss unless married, and maybe not even then, lol.
12   NoCoupForYou   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 29, 12:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Japan is also super Xenophobic and has almost no immigrant population that travels back and forth to visit family.
13   WookieMan   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 29, 12:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

HEYYOU says
I'm more than willing to see what happens to "Open up" Socialist Red States' death numbers in the next few weeks.

People die putting on the 18th green. At some point, oh well. But when it's DemTards dying we shut everything down. There are no politics in this unless you make them up out of thin air. You're doing their bidding at this point.
14   Ceffer   ignore (4)   2020 Apr 29, 1:03pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

All that tax money used to bribe welfare dirtbags to empower Dems dried up? Pension fund liabilities spiking through the roof? What could possibly go wrong?
15   HeadSet   ignore (2)   2020 Apr 29, 1:34pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Misc says
In California, the governor pretty much has destroyed vast sectors of the economy


Remember this at the next election.


It seem that electoral victory for Dems in Ca is forever baked in - what cannot be pushed over with illegals voting can be handled through "vote mining."

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