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Wile E Coyote

By Misc follow Misc   2020 Jun 10, 12:15pm 517 views   2 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    

We are still in that Wile E Coyote moment when he goes off the cliff, his feet are moving at 100 miles an hour, and he hasn't fallen yet.

People think the economy is improving. That is just not the case.

For residential properties, over 8% are in forbearance. The forbearance period is just about over and people are going to have to start paying their mortgages again or go through the foreclosure process. 8% is higher than the worst delinquency rate of the Housing Crash”.

About 20% of renters did not make this month's rent. The governments (federal and state) have put into place restrictions on evictions. Those restrictions end soon. The sheer numbers of people that are going to be displaced is huge.

There have been very few businesses filing for bankruptcy. That will soon change. Many businesses have simply not been paying rent and have been drawing on credit. Expect massive amounts of business failures to happen.

Commercial properties are going to be foreclosed on in large numbers. This is across all property types from office buildings, malls, apartment complexes, hotels, and resorts (Trump Properties is even in forbearance).

The financial losses are going to be huge. The banks are playing nice with everyone because they know they will need another and more substantial Bailout.

The States have not penciled in their reduced budgets yet. California for example started this year with a budget for 2020-2021 of $222 billion. After the governor destroyed the economy, it looks like the governor is over budget by about $54 billion because of lost taxes. Somehow the governor came up with free money for some illegals (I'm sure this endeared him to senate republicans and the president). Still there will be some extra funds from Washington, but not no $54 billion. The state does have about $18 billion in its “rainy day fund”, so there is that. Still, expect layoffs and shortened pay periods for state employees. Then there is the extra amount paid out in unemployment benefits. California's unemployment insurance fund is depleted, and the anticipated outflow of $40 billion will be borrowed from the Federal Treasury. That is one year's estimates. Future years will add to this. This money will need to be repaid. Taxes will rise and you can expect prop 13 to be repealed. The additional free money given to the States from the federal government will end at some point and states will have to increase taxes or reduces personnel costs at that time.

Gravity is slowly taking hold.
1   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2020 Jun 10, 7:53pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

My daughter's in-laws own a family REIT. 6,000 rental units and over 1,000,000 square feet of commercial space in and around the DC area. I'm a little concerned for them. However, they seem to be completely unconcerned seeing as they just closed on an 8,000 square foot home. They are both 24 years old.
2   just_passing_through   ignore (8)   2020 Jun 10, 8:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Misc says
8% is higher than the worst delinquency rate of the Housing Crash

Much higher.

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