patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,351,268 comments by 15,725 users - Al_Sharpton_for_President online now
Who Is Helmut Norpoth and Why Does He Say Trump Will Win Big?
2020 Sep 5, 10:30am 744 views 5 comments
by Bd6r follow (2)
Comments 1 - 5 of 5 Search these comments
1
Bd6r
2020 Sep 5, 10:31am
Bd6r
2020 Sep 5, 10:31am
History is on Norpoth’s side. His “Primary model” has been right 25 of 27 times, and it predicts that, in 2020, President Trump will defeat Joe Biden 362-176 in the Electoral College. If you were masochistic enough to watch last week’s virtual Democratic National Convention, you don’t need the professor to tell you how this will end. The oldest political party in the world has chosen the oldest presidential candidate in U.S. history to peddle old ideas. In a couple of months, Professor Norpoth will be vindicated yet again, and former Vice President Biden will be released by his captors to enjoy an overdue retirement.
2
Ceffer
2020 Sep 5, 10:45am
Ceffer
2020 Sep 5, 10:45am
All of the self anointed soothsayers and chicken bone readers come out of the woodwork prior to the Presidential election. Truth is, nothing can be taken for granted. All assumptions are at best guess work and nobody has any aggregate wisdom that can predict a result. Just have to wait, see, and keep fingers crossed.
I'm more concerned that the Deep (Shallow) State has many scenarios for assassination planned. Makes the ideas of elections a bit moot. Trump seems to be pretty cautious, but who knows.
I'm more concerned that the Deep (Shallow) State has many scenarios for assassination planned. Makes the ideas of elections a bit moot. Trump seems to be pretty cautious, but who knows.
3
Bd6r
2020 Sep 5, 11:51am
Bd6r
2020 Sep 5, 11:51am
Ceffer says
In any isolated "yes-no" case we have 50% chance of getting it right even if we pull data out of ass. In this guys case, however, he has been right too many times to ascribe this to a fluke. Kinda like Hillary winning all 8 coin toss cases against Bernie in 2016 primaries in Iowa...
All of the self anointed soothsayers and chicken bone readers come out of the woodwork prior to the Presidential election. Truth is, nothing can be taken for granted. All assumptions are at best guess work and nobody has any aggregate wisdom that can predict a result. Just have to wait, see, and keep fingers crossed.
I'm more concerned that the Deep (Shallow) State has many scenarios for assassination planned. Makes the ideas of elections a bit moot. Trump seems to be pretty cautious, but who knows.
In any isolated "yes-no" case we have 50% chance of getting it right even if we pull data out of ass. In this guys case, however, he has been right too many times to ascribe this to a fluke. Kinda like Hillary winning all 8 coin toss cases against Bernie in 2016 primaries in Iowa...
4
Shaman
2020 Sep 5, 12:48pm
Shaman
2020 Sep 5, 12:48pm
TrumpingTits says
We had better hope that both sides refuse to engage in voter fraud or this election will tilt us toward Civil war.
He doesn't factor in massive voter fraud tho.
This means he is correct but the result won't be.
We had better hope that both sides refuse to engage in voter fraud or this election will tilt us toward Civil war.
5
Bd6r
2020 Sep 5, 8:28pm
Bd6r
2020 Sep 5, 8:28pm
TrumpingTits says
may be big tech meddling is what he can not factor in this time
He doesn't factor in massive voter fraud tho.
This means he is correct but the result won't be.
may be big tech meddling is what he can not factor in this time
Professor Norpoth just as confidently predicts that Trump will trounce Joe Biden in November. Specifically, he gives the president a 91 percent chance of winning the election with an unambiguous 362-176 Electoral College margin. If this seems implausible, considering the avalanche of polls that portend Trump’s imminent political demise, it will seem less so when Norpoth’s track record is taken into account. The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”