patrick.net

The right doesn't riot.

Only the left is violent.

If you're an investor, you know to never sell and add on dips. Fastest way to reach your financial goals based on 100 years of data.

Dholliday126 says

If you're an investor, you know to never sell and add on dips. Fastest way to reach your financial goals based on 100 years of data.

agree 100%

Dholliday126 says

Fastest way to reach your financial goals based on 100 years of data.

But will the coming decades be like the last 100 years? Some things seem broken:

- the government is completely captured by the oligarchy, to a degree never before seen
- the pretense of democracy has been negated by mass voter fraud because Trump was not a candidate hand-picked by the oligarchy
- the dollar may soon no longer be the world reserve currency
- almost all US manufacturing has been outsourced, so the US makes nothing and is profoundly dependent on China now
- mainstream media revenue was gutted by Facebook and Google, and media now exists only as a propaganda puppet of the oligarchy
- Facebook, Google, and Twitter have become overtly Stalinist in censoring non-conforming news about Biden, the election, and the virus

Patrick says

The right doesn't riot.

Only the left is violent

Did I say the right would riot? If the stop the steal rally proves successful in bringing out counter Antifa protestors which clash ... and this emboldens Trump to declare Marshall law and refuse to leave office.

Then the left would riot and send markets into a tailspin. That seems to be the end goal of Donald.win posters. Trump doing whatever is in his power to stay in office.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Then the left would riot and send markets into a tailspin.

They rioted since last May. Markets did the opposite of "tailspin".

FuckCCP89 says

They rioted since last May. Markets did the opposite of "tailspin".

It’s more about if Trump’s death flails actually amount to actual action rather than just angry petulant tweets.

What we should really be concerned about is Biden taking office.

Trump was great for the stock market.

Biden is the opposite of Trump.

So just on that level, it doesn't look good for stocks.

BoomAndBustCycle says

FuckCCP89 says

They rioted since last May. Markets did the opposite of "tailspin".

It’s more about if Trump’s death flails actually amount to actual action rather than just angry petulant tweets.

Will the left riot or not? If they do riot why would the markets react differently this time?

FuckCCP89 says

They rioted since last May. Markets did the opposite of "tailspin".

There were a few days of actual rioting that amounted to anything outside of Seattle. In Los Angeles area Santa Monica was looted May 31st. That’s my only vivid memory of looting hitting close to home... Dow did drop a week or so later by 2000 points... but that was probably more due to renewed lockdown fears.

BoomAndBustCycle says

FuckCCP89 says

They rioted since last May. Markets did the opposite of "tailspin".

There were a few days of actual rioting that amounted to anything outside of Seattle. In Los Angeles area Santa Monica was looted May 31st. That’s my only vivid memory of looting hitting close to home... Dow did drop a week or so later by 2000 points... but that was probably more due to renewed lockdown fears.

This isn’t true. Downtown LA was shattered. Only the news didn’t show it. There’s actual videos even on you tube. So was Long Beach. There were videos posted here at Pat.net

Several cities engaged in illegal actions to prevent looting and rioting there including Lakewood and Torrance. What I mean by illegal is they blocked off roads and stopped vehicles with the flimsiest of PC.

In Huntington Beach, citizens took to the streets in defense led in part by former MMA champ and newly elected HB city councilman Tito Ortiz. There were similar actions video recorded in cities across the nation including Yucaipa, CA. Tens of videos posted here.

I’m not sure if you are obtuse, if you are trying to gaslight, or if you are an ostrich, but your recollection of events is negligently wrong.

Continue to invest.

After review of the data, I discovered there looks to be no correlation between stock market performance and whether blue or red is on office.

I was surprised by this.

Biden very likely can not go far left as he is forced to maintain status quo by Trump effects for the next 4 years. Most likely Tech, RE, Banks and inflation can push the stock market. Think twice before selling.

Why would stocks be any more (or any less) correlated to social unrest/ revolution than any other asset class?

At the end of the day the typical patnet investor, who I assume doesn't have a 8+ figure portfolio (Rin excepted), has to use the tools available to them. With the risk free rate of return below 1 percent I don't see another asset class that's better than stocks no matter what is coming.

You can make the case for gold until you look at how gold actually performed throughout modern history. Today Gold is manipulated like every fiat.
You can get into currency trades but while the USD remains the reserve currency that's a risky bet too (we are not Weimer Germany).
Bitcoin is interesting but it seems very much like gold to me, and it also has extremely high transaction costs of over 3% round trip.

Modern Corporations don't truly have a home country. I think large cap stocks will probably weather whatever is coming better than anything else (on average - there are going to be +/- 6 sigma outliers). You can roll the dice on other assets and get lucky though. If you are just trying to maintain your purchasing power however, I think stocks are probably safer than cash. Select a nice passive index ETF and forget about it. If you want additional 'insurance', put 20% into an international ETF and/ or emerging markets ETF.

stfu says

Select a nice passive index ETF and forget about it

Bingo. No point in complicating things outside of funny money you're willing to lose everything on or get a huge winner. 90% of what I do is set and forget. The other 9% is individual stocks that are usually Fortune 500 that have been beaten down. The last 1% is pure speculative bets. Basically gambling. I've lost 90% before and have made massive gains in this 1%. Hasn't failed me yet.

Unless you're literally going to trade and research stocks and currencies full time, like 60+ hours a week, you're usually going to be on the losing end with individual picks. There are smarter people and they do it for a living. No saying you cannot get gains, but too many people seek out a get rich quick stock and buy pure trash.

I've been kicking around this idea for a few weeks, Until recently I've been in bonds but with the printing presses at full steam I've gotta bail from that position. I moved to a S&P 500 index, but It just doesn't look good to me, its at very high P/E (37.85) vs the mean (15.87) and there is a lot of risk; people are out of work, corporations got their bailouts but the people did not. Politically, if Trump indeed has a 'card', the surprise could shock markets pretty hard... or if Biden doesn't write checks to BLM or Antifa the tantrums (riots) will likely start up again...

So I've moved my money into a diversified emerging markets fund, to ride out any near term risk, and will put it back into S&P 500 when an opportunity comes up... who knows though, I'm a small fish with no real investment bragging rights.

Patrick says

So just on that level, it doesn't look good for stocks.

I disagree in the short run. I think Biden will spend like a motherfucker with (more than Trump) Janet Yellen colluding with the FED to print until there is no tomorrow - for social justice. Long term it's bad for the country and stonx but short term I expect a giant Wall Street orgasm.

ThatGuy says

I moved to a S&P 500 index, but It just doesn't look good to me

I've seen a lot of financial fireside chats over the past year that speculate indexes are going to get hit hard "soon", whatever that means. Basically the idea is that these companies stock prices survive only on mindless money that gets dumped into indexes each month - yet these companies "aren't the future". So if change happens quickly indexes will be for the suckers.

Here's one that is 2 days old:

www.youtube.com/embed/sA6ug5NWob4

Cathie is an active manager though so of course that's what she's say. Doesn't mean she's wrong though.

just_passing_through says

indexes are going to get hit hard "soon"

Indices can’t get hit hard without the majority of active investors also getting hit. Of course this YouTube rando might know the secret. But mathematically by definition he probably doesn’t.

stfu says

Bitcoin is interesting but it seems very much like gold to me, and it also has extremely high transaction costs of over 3% round trip.



Select a nice passive index ETF and forget about it

@stfu
You can buy/sell crypto cheaper than 3%.
Coinbase Pro for instance:


Index ETF isnt a bad idea.
last 12month, the SPY made you 16%


My individual stock picks made me over 45% but 2020 was an unusual year. Hard to not make money if you bought stocks during the March/April lows. And by no means am I bragging about 45% return in stocks this past year. I have plenty of friends who made > 2X in stocks in 2020.


It really all depends on your risk profile and the level of effort you are willing to put in. I am not a trader....I just dollar cost avg into opportunities and always keep cash on the sidelines in case opportunities arise.

ignoreme says

Of course this YouTube rando might know the secret.

Yeah, just a random video but it's no secret and there are tons of financial spokespeeps I've seen discuss this on many other channels. Realvision for one.

Also, yeah, the point is a lot of people will get hurt if there is a rotation out of indexed tracked companies over to active manager that have loaded up on 'the next big things' that the indices don't track.

ARK has done very well this year.

I'm not saying any of that will happen. I really don't know shit. Just putting it out there.

@G36

QQQ up 45% in 2020. Just saying.

Can't blame you for bitcoin fever though. Hard to beat a 67000% return over the past 10, 12 years?

Also note that Coinbase pro has lower transaction fee but they also have a spread premium. But yeah it's likely lower than 3% round trip. I was going to do my first bitcoin on that platform but I've run up against the 'please submit your verification documents' bug. It won't let me fund the account.

@stfu, good point...tech did very well.

yep, def. a crypto fan boy here.

Hope that coinbase issue gets fixed soon for you. Customer support has been good to me at Coinbase but I can imagine ticket resolution takes longer as new all time highs in Bitcoin might bring a new wave of new coinbase users (backlog).
Have you looked into Robinhood? No commissions on BTC/ETH trades but they don't allow you to get the best available price. But that seems like pennies on the dollar to me considering the return potential.

Buy stocks unless you have fewer than 10 years to live.
The losers will spend the 600 bucks as soon as they get it in their hot little hands.
I predict Apple will get a lot of the money.
keep it coming, I want my dividends.
I'm hoping Trump stays in and I might have an extra 500k by the end of 2021.

I do feel we're in the final stage of the bubble and will probably pop sometime this Spring. Many macroeconomist way smarter than me concur. When that happens investors will be looking where to put their money and commodities will sky rocket. Just look at Silver, Uranium, copper, lumber, oil they are still cheap and undervalued compared to stocks.

FCX up 300% - LL over 700%

While unachievable for most, the trick is to become an accredited investor, that opens up so many new investment vehicles. In a good market you can double the normal investment return.

As for selling, no one is a market timer, human nature is to be scared when it time to invest and enthusiastic when it's time to sell. Paralysis and FOMO are death to most undisciplined investors. Hence why you just always need to be in the market, through good and bad.

My 100 years comment was basically focusing on the general upward trend of the market, i.e. every dip has been buying opportunity.

We have no where to go but to inflate to pay for our pseudo socialistic society. We will never pay down the debt, oligarchs will only tolerate so much tax, the only way forward is to inflate until it all collapses. Until then, in theory productive assets should do fine. Unless we get heavy wealth taxes or increased capital gains taxes, then that would be negative for assets.

My base case is the slow Californiafication of the US, like a slow boiled frog in a soup of socialism. Assets should be ok for a while cause elites and banks still control everything and want to make money.

G36 says

Have you looked into Robinhood? No commissions on BTC/ETH trades but they don't allow you to get the best available price. But that seems like pennies on the dollar to me considering the return potential

My experience with Coinbase has put me off a little bit TBH. Now some random website (although highly rated in all my research) has all of my personal information and could use my identity (if I didn't have other safeguards in place).

Re: Robin Hood >> I'm looking for a platform that allows me to take possession of my bitcoin (hardware wallet) and I'm not sure Robinhood allows that? I know that's why I didn't go the Paypal route.

I'll probably stay out of it until Coinbase fixes their platform or until BullionVault (where I already have an account) gets into crypto.

mich says

I do feel we're in the final stage of the bubble and will probably pop sometime this Spring.

Quoted for posterity.

@stfu,
then Robinhood is not for you. They are like PayPal and currently dont enable you to move your crypto to your private bank (hardware wallet).

Re: Coinbase. Personally, I wouldnt call it a random website :) Coinbase is in business since 2012, recently filed for an IPO and has >35M (verified) users globally. They operate in over 100 countries and are headquartered in SF. Users get instant deposits and the fees on Coinbase Pro are fair IMO (0.5%). Coinbase works closey with regulators and they will submit your transaction history yearly to the IRS when it hits certain $ thresholds. Crypto trading - despite what some critics say - is regulated in the US. Crypto brokers that allow users to transact from FIAT to Crypto and vice versa have to comply with KYC regulations.

Dholliday126 says

As for selling, no one is a market timer, human nature is to be scared when it time to invest and enthusiastic when it's time to sell. Paralysis and FOMO are death to most undisciplined investors.
We have no where to go but to inflate to pay for our pseudo socialistic society. We will never pay down the debt, oligarchs will only tolerate so much tax, the only way forward is to inflate until it all collapses

@Dholliday126 great post.
Exactly, dont try to be the market timer. I would add, dont try to trade unless you know what your doing and can stomach the losses. I bought another house in 2020 and I cant tell you how many people told me the RE market is going to collapse and I will lose a ton of money. Everyone's an expert nowadays. Every year we hear from "experts" the stock market is going to crash. And for crypto (Bitcoin was declared "dead" at least 5,000 times. BTC just had its 12th birthday and is trading at all time highs). I continue to buy assets and dollar cost avg into the markets and maintain patience. I am doing just fine...cutting out the noise from "experts" is the only "issue" I run into.

Yep, the selloff started today. I'm holding, and if we get a 10% correction, I'm buying! My TSLA is holding up well though.

Dholliday126 says

Paralysis and FOMO

Oh god, do I know about paralysis. Back in March I had $100k equity line on my house ready to tap... a fresh $30k in cash ready to invest. And it sat in my brokerage account untouched. I of course let my 401k ride the wave and kept putting 10% of my paychecks every two weeks... but due to legitimate fear of losing my job at the time I couldn’t bring myself to risk cash or leverage my heloc. Kept waiting for the double dip that never came. Only consolation prize is I more than doubled my cash from $30k to $70k just by being extra frugal the last year.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Dholliday126 says

Paralysis and FOMO

Oh god, do I know about paralysis. Back in March I had $100k equity line on my house ready to tap... a fresh $30k in cash ready to invest. And it sat in my brokerage account untouched. I of course let my 401k ride the wave and kept putting 10% of my paychecks every two weeks... but due to legitimate fear of losing my job at the time I couldn’t bring myself to risk cash or leverage my heloc. Kept waiting for the double dip that never came. Only consolation prize is I more than doubled my cash from $30k to $70k just by being extra frugal the last year.

Dude I took a bath on 2007/8 in the market and sat in cash for a decade, then got back in and doubled my money in a few years. Probably would have quadrupled my money if I never left. It's hard as shit to stay the course.

You should never sell stocks while 1. interest rates are low 2. inflation and taxes are reasonable rates.

Like Alec Baldwin said in Glengarry Glenn Ross: “The money is just sitting out there waiting for you to take it. Are you man enough to take it?”

Just as the bullshit fake news goes on all day, so does the financial bullshit on CNBC and elsewhere.

Every day worldwide rich guys have new cash to invest; they own businesses and the untold masses of wage slaves spend all they made that week. The rich guys have a decision; do they buy bonds or stocks?

Today the answer is simple, stocks are better than bonds.
I read a rumor that Apple will raise their dividend in February.
I’m a bit amazed that I get paid more in Apple dividends than I made working a job after college.
Hold cash? No fuckin way.

Sikhs have this concept of "Chardi Kala"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charhdi_Kala

I am very positive about rejuvenation of American real economy.
The CCP sponsored twitter/facebook etc. may go down, But the manufacturing and in technology real software/hardware is expected to do well.

I dunno, most recent figures I have are from back in November. That was when margin debt increased 9.5% month over month. Went from about $660 billion in October to about $722 billion in November. That's for those trading geniuses with retail brokerage accounts. So in addition to all the money that was "saved" and put into stocks an extra $62 billion was borrowed and put into stocks in one month. Since the market cap of Ford is about $33 billion, these geniuses borrowed about twice the value of Ford and "invested" these billions willy-nilly into their favorite can't miss stocks. Looks like they did about the same in December.

What could possibly go wrong?

Dholliday126 says

Dude I took a bath on 2007/8 in the market and sat in cash for a decade

If I could time the market, I would have retired in Caligulan splendor long ago.

Dholliday126 says

Back in March I had $100k equity line on my house ready to tap... a fresh $30k in cash ready to invest. And it sat in my brokerage account untouched. I of course let my 401k ride the wave and kept putting 10% of my paychecks every two weeks... but due to legitimate fear of losing my job at the time I couldn’t bring myself to risk cash or leverage my heloc.

A legitimate reason to not invest at the moment.

Misc says

That was when margin debt increased 9.5% month over month.

Concerning for sure, but it's not always reinvested into stocks and securities. With interest rates so low, you can borrow say $100k against your stocks for ridiculously low amount monthly. It's how we bought our current house, so we had leverage with the bank because it was a foreclosure. Cash is king in real estate. We then refi'd a couple months later. I think our monthly interest only carry cost was about $220/mo.

So while it was a margin loan, it wasn't inflating the stock market. Others could be opening a business or funding it to stay afloat like restaurants and salons during the pandemic.

My guess though based on the retarded crypto values and the month over month increase in margin debt, much of that increase went into BTC and other top level Crypto coins. People will double down on stupid I guess and FOMO. If I'm correct on this, some individuals are going to take a bath here soon. This is exactly what happened Dec. 2017. Not logical pumps and then the bottom falls out. Took almost 3 years to get back here. Whales and institutional finally got traction to suck little guys back in with their cash or margin to steal it from them.

WookieMan says

crypto values and the month over month increase in margin debt, much of that increase went into BTC and other top level Crypto coins.

@WookieMan
We have seen nothing yet in Crypto. The bull market has just started. JPM just came out with a price prediction of 146k for Bitcoin.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/jpmorgan-sees-146-000-plus-bitcoin-price-as-long-term-target

Today the U.S. regulator (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) released guidance for banks. Banks are entering the crypto market now.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-prices-jump-after-u-s-regulator-says-banks-can-use-stablecoin-connect-to-blockchains-11609811050

Looks like the Bitcoin bull has fallen behind trend. The total reserve of gold held by the United States is only 8133.50 tonnes. At today's price that put the value of the gold reserve at $509 billion roughly.

The market value of Bitcoin is in excess of that figure based on today's dollar price.

Who am I to say diamonds are over priced?

Of course, Bitcoin can go up another 8 times its value from here.

If JP Morgan says buy, what could possibly go wrong?