patrick.net

You gotta be crazy to put your money at the top into stocks like tsla with a pe of 100000000000000000000000, just be careful pls. I'd only go for value and inflation proof stocks here. Rising rates will bring down tech even more. This may "only" be a correction, but I don't expect much besides sideways trading for a while from this market.

tesla was one of the stocks i bought on the dip :) we'll see if i lose out on this one.

G36 says

tesla was one of the stocks i bought on the dip :) we'll see if i lose out on this one.

It was a great stock to get in early and destroyed many shorts. I don't think even now that many shorts are left so this may be genuine selling. But it dipped quite hard and may be able to sustain from here on, a lot of it will also depend on whether rates will stay relatively low. Everyone now piling into Dow stocks.

GME🚀
I wish I had gambled big money.
I would buy more AAPL but I have too many shares already.

clambo says

I would buy more AAPL but I have too many shares already.

thats the right mindset though....buy the dips

G36, I had a little old lady neighbor who was richer than god from stock investing.
She was 97 the last time I saw her, she fell and passed away in the hospital.
Anyway, she would not sell on dips. She said that dips were temporary at least for the stocks she owned.

If I had balls, I would buy more AAPL using my margin and sell after it goes up 20 bucks/share.

There are probably other strategies that I can use, but I’m lazy to study the subject.
I was thinking about Apple LEAPS, and other calls etc.

I told my brother (has cash) about GME when it was like 50 bucks “buy GME. Do it today.”
He chickened out and now he has pussy remorse, he says he will not wait the next time.
He’s watching GME all day long 🤑

I told him to buy ROKU after the IPO and then GME a week ago.
He thinks I have a crystal ball, but both are one time opportunities.

FuckCCP89 says

zzyzzx says

G36 says

.with the stimulus package approved, I would expect stocks to go up

Because your typical stock investor is eligible for the stimulus???

You think people earning less than $75K don't invest? I bet the majority of RH "investors" fall into that bracket.

The one share of Apple or GME, or anything else is insignificant. I own shares, including Apple by the thousands.

you own a few thousand of shares of Apple and other tech companies? Nice! In your 401k or investment account?

I have been buying into this dip. If this corrects further, I have to keep buying.

clambo says

Anyway, she would not sell on dips. She said that dips were temporary at least for the stocks she owned.

exactly what I tell myself.

I only buy tech stocks on red days and I love corrections like this.

But, life changing money is made with higher risk plays. (not mention the B word here.......*Bitcoin*)

All my stocks holdings are long term plays. I cannot see a scenario where Tesla, Apple, Nvidia are trending down for 5-10 years.

Nvidia is part of pretty much every aspect of EV's. The EV market is going to explode within the next 2-3 years. Considering marketcap etc., I wouldnt be surprised if Nvidia hits 750 dollars in the next 1-2years.

I’m more excited about Apple than Tesla.
People actually buy a lot of Apple products and Apple makes a lot of money, while it crushes the competition.
$500/month/33 years is a million bucks, but it’s getting rich slowly using mutual funds.

I get it. Apple is a sure bet IMO.

I love buying my wife (and myself) Apple products. The last apple phone (pro max) has a mind blowing cam.

It's hard to argue with people who made a lot of money on Apple. I know several of them.

But personally I would not buy Apple because it's already the most valuable company on earth. Well, maybe second to Saudi Aramco now.

Like, is Apple going to go from $2.2 trillion to $4.4 trillion?

Apple went from about $800 billion to $2.2 trillion with declining sales and profits.

With the way income taxes have been going for major corporations, there is just no ruling out a negative income tax for corporations

Add in negative interest rates, and anything can go.

holy crap.....Tesla up 19% today :)

glad i bought tech stocks on the dip....thanks for the gift!

G36 says

All my stocks holdings are long term plays. I cannot see a scenario where Tesla, Apple, Nvidia are trending down for 5-10 years.
Nvidia is part of pretty much every aspect of EV's. The EV market is going to explode within the next 2-3 years. Considering marketcap etc., I wouldnt be surprised if Nvidia hits 750 dollars in the next 1-2years.

I never thought about the chip demand from self driving / high tech cars. That's a good point.

While I think the risk is pretty low near term, if some influential countries like the usa were to take a stance against crypto, I'd imagine this would crush nvidia and amd because they wouldn't be selling gpu's at anywhere near their current rates and forecasts.

Hircus says

if some influential countries like the usa were to take a stance against crypto

doubt it to be honest.
The US doesnt stifle innovation. elected officials approved the first crypto bank (federally chartered). Top 500 fortune companies hold BTC on their balance sheet. They got too much power. Even banks are now in on crypto. This will be big. BTC is no treat for the US Dollar. It will never be a day to day currency.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/08/how-the-young-plan-to-spend-stimulus-checks-deutsche-bank.html?__twitter_impression=true

A survey from Deutsche Bank has given an insight into how much cash from U.S. stimulus checks might find its way into the stock market.

Responses to the survey of 430 retail investors showed that half of 25- to 34-year-olds plan to spend 50% of their stimulus payments on stocks, leading the German investment bank to state that "a large amount of the upcoming U.S. stimulus checks will probably find their way into equities."

Meanwhile, 18- to 24-year-olds involved in the survey planned to use 40% of any stimulus checks on stocks, and 35- to 54-year-olds surveyed planned to use 37% of their checks on equity market investment. The over-55s surveyed said they'd put only 16% into stocks.

Patrick says

Responses to the survey of 430 retail investors showed that half of 25- to 34-year-olds plan to spend 50% of their stimulus payments on stocks, leading the German investment bank to state that "a large amount of the upcoming U.S. stimulus checks will probably find their way into equities."

exactly! The very next day when the stimulus package was approved/announced, stocks rallied.

My Nio, Tesla and Apple went up nicely. That dip was a gift.

Patrick says

A survey from Deutsche Bank has given an insight into how much cash from U.S. stimulus checks might find its way into the stock market.

Must be nice for those that get them. Not you Patrick, but you're welcome for those that receive them. And even if you do, it's not your fault. This shit is completely bogus though and the system is corrupt. Sick of it. I won't get the free money as usual, I just pay for it.

@WookieMan,

there is a wise saying: If you cant beat them, join them.

I'll translate: money printing and low interest rates inflate assets.

If you understand that, you are already ahead of many. I'll translate again: Buy assets (Stocks, RE, Bitcoin).

G36 says

If you understand that, you are already ahead of many. I'll translate again: Buy assets (Stocks, RE

Yes, I'm ahead of most. Your point? I have no interest in receiving a stimulus check. We need to open back up 100% and stop the welfare. Any inflation will work itself out and the debt is the debt, we won't be repaying it.

We're creating an unequal society that is going down the shitter between race issues, money issues, censorship, covid, government debt, etc. This is just more bad and I'm one of the 2 in 10 that pay 5 figures in federal taxes. Pisses me off.

Sorry, but I won't be joining the stimulus check crowd anytime soon.

good! As an asset holder you should not be too sad about stimulus. you benefit in higher asset values!
Again, if you cant beat them join them. Buy and hold assets.
Wild guess here.....usually, the people that complain the loudest have the smallest portfolios....;)

G36 says

good! As an asset holder you should not be too sad about stimulus. you benefit in higher asset values!

My taxes will go up. I have no choice and that money is gone. 50% of the people getting stimulus checks don't pay any federal taxes. Probably 60% pay less than $2,500. It's a negative feedback loop. Which poor people don't understand. Why should I have to make more to pay for the poor? It disenfranchises producers and makes the lazy poor more poor.

You can time it and make money for sure. The day of reckoning will come though. Who knows when. When the doers will shut out the takers. Occasionally worked in inner city neighborhoods in housing. The vast majority of those poor are likely to get $4-5k from this stimulus. They WILL piss it away. Our society is going to shit. Media and Hollywood are at fault. Part of my animosity towards CA. That place should be destroyed.

I’m against the waste of $1,900 billion of taxpayer money because it will not stimulate the economy and will cause an inevitable increase of taxes to just pay the interest on it.

About 1/2 the population have investments and savings, the other 1/2 lives month to month.

The $1,900 billion divided by American adults would be about $6,000 each.

$6,000 bucks per person would likely stimulate the economy for a while but could postpone people working again so in the long run it’s likely bad.

I’m yelling at everyone to invest because you will need more money in the future than before the gigantic government money spending recently.

Roth IRA and Health Savings Account invested in stock mutual funds are a must.

“Get mad you faggots!” Glengarry Glen Ross

clambo says

I’m yelling at everyone to invest because you will need more money in the future than before the gigantic government money spending recently.

Roth IRA and Health Savings Account invested in stock mutual funds are a must.

100% agree. Not investing in assets like stocks and RE is not an option. You'll continue to lose.

I would caution here, that rebound was strong but it came from a 5 days non-stop selling streak and it likely not going to last. While people should always have some money invested and diversified now is not the time to indiscriminately buy stocks, esp. not tech - IMO.

clambo says

’m yelling at everyone to invest because you will need more money in the future than before the gigantic government money spending recently.

There is no guarantee that the inflation will show up in high growth momo tech stocks which benefit from low rates, maybe better to invest in Dow / agriculture / energy stocks now.

That being said, the recent volatility is a perfect environment for day trading which has been muted during the long and boring decade long run-up since the 2008 recession.

@mell,
i get your comments but I am wondering what your timeline is? For me, investing in stocks is always long term. I am not a trader at all.
what are your thoughts on the growth of the EV market within the next decade? How should I think about the expectation that a boom in the EV market translates into higher stock valuation for companies that play in this market? (Nvidia, Nio, Tesla, GE, F, MSFT and many others)

G36 says

@mell,
i get your comments but I am wondering what your timeline is? For me, investing in stocks is always long term. I am not a trader at all.
what are your thoughts on the growth of the EV market within the next decade? How should I think about the expectation that a boom in the EV market translates into higher stock valuation for companies that play in this market? (Nvidia, Nio, Tesla, GE, F, MSFT and many others)

I think there are tech stocks that are safe to hold since they make a lot of money such as aapl, nvdia msft - that doesn't mean they won't get beaten down but it will likely be short lived unless we enter a full blown recession. I'd be cautious on tsla (due to it's sky high valuation/multiplier and increasing EV competition) and stocks that don't turn a solid profit yet, growth can quickly disappear and in a recession company that aren't profitable are punished brutally as there's always the risk of dilution or bankruptcy. I don't have a good read on longer term economic climate but 1) we're overdue for a recession and 2) this administration does not instill economic confidence. If you're young and holding forever then this won't matte that much, more if you're holding good companies or not, but eventually you want to use that money and buy nice things or you have to use it for some reason, then timing will definitely matter. The EV market will heat up and I think there are multiple companies that could eat tsla's lunch rather sooner than later. But tsla does much more than just EVs and will always have cult status. Generally renewable energies are sound due to the promotion by the administration, however China has been cutting margins with their cheap products in that space for a while now. My safest sector bet is always biotech, but there the risk is more with individual stocks. Generally energy, agriculture, defense and such do well in an inflationary environment, better than tech. So it may be time to revisit the good old dow for a change.

thanks mell for the clarification!

I am with you on most of it. BTW, I also hold biotech/life science. (Thermo Fisher Scientific for instance is one of my long term holds, 2020 was a record year for them).

"We're overdue for a recession" Are you basically saying, a "natural" recession that brings us down to the mean versus a one-off event like Covid?
To me, we just had a recession and are coming out of it (start of the next bull market). I dont think the FED will ever allow for a natural recession. Its manipulated by stimulus, money printing, depressed rates. That wont stop and the old saying that they wont have any tools left isnt true in my mind either. They can print forever, buy assets directly and even go negative on rates.

G36 says

thanks mell for the clarification!

I am with you on most of it. BTW, I also hold biotech/life science. (Thermo Fisher Scientific for instance is one of my long term holds, 2020 was a record year for them).

"We're overdue for a recession" Are you basically saying, a "natural" recession that brings us down to the mean versus a one-off event like Covid?
To me, we just had a recession and are coming out of it (start of the next bull market). I dont think the FED will ever allow for a natural recession. Its manipulated by stimulus, money printing, depressed rates. That wont stop and the old saying that they wont have any tools left isnt true in my mind either. They can print forever, buy assets directly and even go negative on rates.

Covid was not a natural recession, so I think we're due for a "normal" one. I agree the Fed will do whatever they can to prevent it from happen, but it will work only so long as the bond market is under control. It's difficult to say but the statement that we will never have recession again (which some pundits have voiced) is definitely a bold one. The Fed is mighty but not limitless. But we'll see!

mell says

It's difficult to say but the statement that we will never have recession again (which some pundits have voiced) is definitely a bold one. The Fed is mighty but not limitless. But we'll see!

I agree with that.....recessions will come.....but you need a black swan event like covid etc.

nice recovery on tech stocks....

I should have bought even more NIO....

mell says

the statement that we will never have recession again (which some pundits have voiced) is definitely a bold one

Sounds very much like "We have reached a permanently high plateau" in 1929. And boy were they wrong.

Patrick says

mell says

the statement that we will never have recession again (which some pundits have voiced) is definitely a bold one

Sounds very much like "We have reached a permanently high plateau" in 1929. And boy were they wrong.

Is it time to buy 30y treasuries

RC2006 says

Patrick says

mell says

the statement that we will never have recession again (which some pundits have voiced) is definitely a bold one

Sounds very much like "We have reached a permanently high plateau" in 1929. And boy were they wrong.

Is it time to buy 30y treasuries

Who knows, the more the government meddles the more difficult ot becomes to predict natural cycles and the severity. But the recent volatility is likely here to stay and this was just a good
rebound after a lot of selling which will certainly return sooner or later. I'm going with a sideways market with a good possibility of a recession in 2H21.

RC2006 says

Is it time to buy 30y treasuries

I don't really know, but I would think it's just the opposite.

Interest rates can't go down because they are almost zero already.

But they can go up in spite of the Fed. And when rates go up, bonds go down.

Patrick says

RC2006 says

Is it time to buy 30y treasuries

I don't really know, but I would think it's just the opposite.

Interest rates can't go down because they are almost zero already.

But they can go up in spite of the Fed. And when rates go up, bonds go down.

I thought US treasuries do better than stocks in depression style crash?

So much better to follow this thread with the Crypto Spammer on ignore. Thank you, Patrick, for the feature.

dang, I had a lot of limit orders and wanted to buy more tech stocks on the cheap-cheap, missed out on some and who knows if they fill.....wish those dips would last longer.