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Regarding a UBI


               
2021 Mar 5, 12:54pm   5,344 views  78 comments

by Zak   follow (0)  

"Some people will take the money and sit around and do nothing, but so what?"

I was thinking about this, and came up with the following. Tldr : eliminate income tax, and create a prosperity dividend instead of a UBI
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For UBI, the money doesn't magically come from nowhere. You have to take it from someone to give it to someone else. If you "print" it, then you take it from everyone equally, but it then gets spent and redistributed into the hands of business owners who benefit from the spending. This therefore hurts people who are not in the capitalist class through inflation. You can see this is true, because of our current minimum/living wage fight. If increasing GDP over time with inflation is supposed to help everyone, then the minimum wage shouldn't continue to be an issue, as more economic output distributed equally would tend to create additional higher paying jobs. Instead what we see is a reversion to a low paying service economy with more and more people bouncing off the minimum wage floor. At the same time, the wealth disparity is increasing, and the richest 1% have gained substantially more than the 99% below them over the previous 40 years. This can't be blamed on republicans, or democrats, or taxes, as taxes only take further from incomes, and don't ADD to people's incomes. Additionally, the trend has been consistent over both republican and democrat led presidencies and congresses.

So again, currently with a UBI, you will get inflation, which hurts savers, and benefits the 1%, as they get the money. So the bottom 10% will be marginally better off, the middle 89% will be markedly WORSE off, and the 1% will consolidate further wealth (as always). So what's the answer?

In my very humble opinion, a start to the answer is to eliminate the w-2 income tax, and instead gather that tax from income and wages paid by corporations. With the middle class no longer worried that every tax proposed will fiscally damage them, they will be willing to vote for social programs that come from tax revenues instead of from inflation. The tax code will be more fair, as corporations with actual lobbying power will fight amongst themselves to equalize taxes paid. Corporations will be the first to rat each other out from these double irish sandwich tax loops if it means they can lower their own tax burden, instead of jus relying on income taxes to fuel the government, and weasleing their way out of their fair share.

Then, we can do a UBI, but instead of a fixed base income, it can be a prosperity dividend. If the country does well, and GDP goes up, you get a bigger payout. If we have a bad year, your payout won't be as big, but we won't create inflation to erode your savings. Additionally, we eliminate 90% of the IRS having to focus on individual tax returns, and they can focus on corporate compliance. This also saves billions of dollars in paperwork and tax return costs each year.

A side benefit, all the government conspiracy theorist/haters will have a massive reduction in anti-government sentiment, as they are no longer under the gun from the IRS. And instead of people being against corporations (big AND small), we will be cheering for them to earn massive profits, and earn us a higher prosperity dividend.

Additionally, I could see the rich actually lobbying for HIGHER capital gains taxes, and lower wage taxes, as wage taxes would need to be paid every year, but capital gains can occur much less frequently.

What do you guys think?

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40   AD   2024 Jan 31, 11:21pm  

Mish Talk website posted about the House of Representatives passing child tax credits bill today which is essentially universal basic income (UBI).
41   MolotovCocktail   2024 Feb 1, 10:48am  

AD says

Mish Talk website posted about the House of Representatives passing child tax credits bill today which is essentially universal basic income (UBI).


Really? How come I don't get the credits then?

If it ain't universal then it ain't universal.
42   Misc   2024 Feb 3, 11:30am  

The government is trying to improve the domestic fertility rate. Raising kids is enormously expensive. The increase to the child tax credit is nowhere even close to the cost of raising a child, but it does add a little incentive for heterosexual couples to have children and marry.

Looks to me a step in the right direction.
43   HeadSet   2024 Feb 3, 2:49pm  

AD says

Mish Talk website posted about the House of Representatives passing child tax credits bill today which is essentially universal basic income (UBI).

No, that child tax credit is another form of welfare that is paid through the IRS system.
44   MolotovCocktail   2024 Feb 3, 4:48pm  

Misc says

The government is trying to improve the domestic fertility rate. Raising kids is enormously expensive. The increase to the child tax credit is nowhere even close to the cost of raising a child, but it does add a little incentive for heterosexual couples to have children and marry.

Looks to me a step in the right direction.


How about...oh, I dunno...doing something else like fixing the root cause of the problem instead?


45   HeadSet   2024 Feb 3, 6:01pm  



Yes, because:
That car was built in Detroit
That suite was made in New York
The home radio and record player were made in Illinois
The TV was made in Ohio
The family clothes were made in North Carolina
The washing machine was made in a midwest city
The house was built with American contractors using American labor and American make materials
Even the telephone was an American made Western Electric device
47   Patrick   2024 Jul 20, 4:00pm  

HeadSet says

Yes, because:
That car was built in Detroit
That suite was made in New York
The home radio and record player were made in Illinois
The TV was made in Ohio
The family clothes were made in North Carolina
The washing machine was made in a midwest city
The house was built with American contractors using American labor and American make materials
Even the telephone was an American made Western Electric device


Outsourcing to China and the mass import of criminal aliens are the root causes of American poverty from shifting wages away from workers and up to stockholders:

https://patrick.net/post/1381434/2024-06-01-grand-unified-theory-of-recent
51   WookieMan   2024 Oct 16, 8:54am  

UBI leads to nothing. Family formation drops because you're allocating the income to yourself. Why would you have a family if you don't have to work as much?

We were freaked out when we had our first kid. $70k per year combined (housing bust). Not god awful, but not good. Fast forward 15 years and you know what? It made us focus on making more to raise our kids.

Fast forward to this year and 3 kids, we'll make $500k this year. UBI makes you lazy. That's why it doesn't work. Lowers GDP as well as people need to be more thrifty if they don't want to work. That's why welfare and Section 8 are economy killers. If you don't have a job, you shouldn't be able to eat.

If you're disabled, fine I get it. But if you can read, write, walk and talk, you can get a job. Childcare welfare I'm okay with actually. Because you can get a job. They should dump the link card system as well. At some point people need the motivation to survive. If they don't then they die I guess. Sad, but that happens in the rest of the world.

There's opportunity galore in this country. There really is no excuse for a UBI.
52   MolotovCocktail   2024 Oct 16, 9:00am  

WookieMan says

made us focus on making more to raise our kids.


Exactly.



It's far, far worse in Korea.
53   MolotovCocktail   2024 Oct 16, 9:07am  

WookieMan says

Family formation drops because you're allocating the income to yourself. Why would you have a family if you don't have to work as much?


This is another interesting take on that:


54   zzyzzx   2024 Oct 16, 9:15am  

WookieMan says

UBI makes you lazy.


True, but I'm thinking more along the lines of it's lazy people that want UBI.
55   komputodo   2024 Oct 16, 9:58am  

zzyzzx says

True, but I'm thinking more along the lines of it's lazy people that want UBI.

true, and the UBI will make them even lazier
56   komputodo   2024 Oct 16, 10:00am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

It's far, far worse in Korea.

2 things....which Korea and far worse it what way?
57   komputodo   2024 Oct 16, 10:39am  

HeadSet says

I'm astonished that 2 working adults cannot make more than $150k combined. Maybe I'm naive, but I really can't comprehend how if you're over 35-60, that you can't pull in $150k combined.

yeah, a little bit...
58   RC2006   2024 Oct 16, 11:34am  

komputodo says

HeadSet says


I'm astonished that 2 working adults cannot make more than $150k combined. Maybe I'm naive, but I really can't comprehend how if you're over 35-60, that you can't pull in $150k combined.

yeah, a little bit...


I would agree but I've seen some pretty lowbal offers made to tech positions fresh out of college iin high cost of living areas, like they are getting an offer that is what I would have gotten 25 years ago seemed laughable . Not sure how wide spread it is but with inflation i feel gen Z is getting fucked over pretty bad.

I do agree over 40 with experience are commanding a decent wage but with kids and inflation they are getting wrecked 150k isn't what it use to be.
59   HeadSet   2024 Oct 16, 11:55am  

komputodo says

HeadSet says


I'm astonished that 2 working adults cannot make more than $150k combined. Maybe I'm naive, but I really can't comprehend how if you're over 35-60, that you can't pull in $150k combined.

yeah, a little bit...

I did not say that, Wookie did. I countered with "Many "married filing jointly" are single income earners. Especially with school age children."
60   WookieMan   2024 Oct 16, 12:53pm  

RC2006 says

I do agree over 40 with experience are commanding a decent wage but with kids and inflation they are getting wrecked 150k isn't what it use to be.

$150k is like $80k after taxes, fees and expenses to keep the lights on and move you around. If you're not above $250k there's no travel, no splurging, maybe a $400-600k house with good credit and no debt.

We just decided to make more and did. We'll enter house poor phase, but with sports and activities our house is our hotel at this point. Kids are getting larger, not fat, oldest is 14 and is 6' already. We'll pay it off by the time they move out or stay however that works out.

Our plan is a top 1-2% earner plan. In 20-30 years our house with inflation will be $1.4M at least and paid off with $5M minimum in the bank/retirement funds. As a couple with no kids, we could live off the annual interest on that forever. Pretty sure my wife will work until she's 60 or so as she's greedy. Might eventually get shares of ownership. So this might balloon to $15-20M above that given the ages of the 2 owners. It's a $50M company now and my wife was 90% of that growth.

I'm not bragging. Sometimes it helps to type/talk it out.

X factor. Death. Just had a friends mom die. Hit and run. Roughest news I've heard in a while. Like really rough. The grandma, mom of the mom dies 2 days later. I usually don't cry about death unless it's my family. This grown ass man has cried a couple times today. I'm also pissed at the piece of shit that hit someone with a car and just keeps going. It was a no outlet subdivision, so hopefully someone got them on a camera.

His dad recently passed away too. Death happens, but fuck, your mom gets killed in a rural subdivision. Pull the fuck over and own up. You likely won't get jail time. Now once caught probably looking at 10 years at least. This is why I don't touch a phone in the car or mess with the radio. Just drive. Usual tangent.... sorry.
61   stereotomy   2024 Oct 16, 4:44pm  

komputodo says


DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says


It's far, far worse in Korea.

2 things....which Korea and far worse it what way?


BOTH Koreas. In fact, South Korea is worse than NK, with a birthrate of around 0.5. That is fall off the cliff in the "Greatest Earthquake Ever Known" into The Land of Lost territory bad. I didn't even mention the Sleestack . . .
62   MolotovCocktail   2024 Oct 16, 5:27pm  

komputodo says


2 things....which Korea and far worse it what way?


South Korea

Gender Wars in their version of Gen Z. Far, far worse than here. There is open violence amongst the genders even. Mostly incel men attacking single women. Lot more rapes going on probablly, but unreported.

Birth rate is catastrophic as a result. 0.7 or so. Might as well be zero.

Last year, 230,000 babies were born...OUT 51 MILLION ppl. Average age of Korean women when they pop out their first kid: 36

Out of wedlock births are still taboo there. They may have to revisit that.

North Korea has other reasons...mostly because of past famine and heavy social population control similar to China. All that can be reversed. In a couple of decades, their standing army will go from 4 million to 2 million. But South Korea's will go to 500,000 unless they start drafting women.

Of course, the South's infrastructure will have collapsed along with the tax base long before that.

Norks just have to bide their time.

https://youtu.be/lmoZ_W4WjW0?si=pMdbpXODOk3AFhk0

https://youtu.be/7ry2IhtQvgY?si=ztOr465p5VgFRYh-
63   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2024 Oct 16, 6:47pm  

stereotomy says

BOTH Koreas. In fact, South Korea is worse than NK, with a birthrate of around 0.5. That is fall off the cliff in the "Greatest Earthquake Ever Known" into The Land of Lost territory bad. I didn't even mention the Sleestack . . .

Feminism is worse than starving under a One-Party Totalitarian regime.
65   WookieMan   2025 Sep 4, 4:26pm  

Patrick says





Bad on so many levels. Fat. Gaming machine. Tattoos that look awful. Bare feet. Going back to fat, that has to be a XXXL female tank top. XL mens shorts.

Who walks out the door and says, "shit I'm looking good today" dressed like that? No one. Get even more depressed and die.
67   mell   2025 Sep 4, 8:14pm  

There is no need for ubi, there is no AI, only pattern recognition. Most jobs which claim to be automated away are simple customer service jobs where the customer gets a good rim job because the robot cannot help in 80% of cases. And don't get me started on "vibe coding" lol. In the right (human) supervising hands it can be a useful tool and productivity enhancer.
68   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Sep 4, 8:15pm  

WookieMan says

Who walks out the door and says, "shit I'm looking good today" dressed like that? No one. Get even more depressed and die.

SSR Eyes

Clonopin is a helluva drug
69   Patrick   2025 Sep 4, 8:42pm  

MolotovCocktail says


Vyrdism


Thanks, never heard of this before.


Vyrdism is an economic and social philosophy that advocates for maximal automation of labor through advanced technology, combined with worker ownership of businesses and limited government intervention in a free-market system. It envisions a society where machines (referred to as "technotarians") perform most labor, allowing humans to profit from automation while maintaining control over economic and political systems. The philosophy is attributed to a figure named John Henry Vyrd, though there is debate about whether this is a real person or a pseudonym for the philosophy’s originator.
70   Patrick   2025 Sep 4, 8:42pm  

WookieMan says

Bad on so many levels. Fat. Gaming machine. Tattoos that look awful. Bare feet.


Hey, don't forget the alcohol. Looks like she bought a drink with her UBI as well.
71   GreaterNYCDude   2025 Sep 4, 8:54pm  

MolotovCocktail says






$1,000,000 / ($8/hr) = 125,000 hrs.
Working 50 hrs / week = 2,500 weeks
Say working 50 weeks per year = 50 years

And that's before payroll deductions, which decreases take home by approx. 1/3.

(And yes I realize it's a joke but I felt compelled to do the math)

But minimum wage in NY is $15.50/hr upstate and a bit more down in the metro area.

And minimum wage jobs were meant to be entry points or termination points. Teenagers looking for their first job and Retirees who still want to keep busy. They were never intended to be careers or a "livable" wage.

UBI is a "good in theory, bad in practice". Look at how society changed once women entered the workforce, first by choice, then (often) by necessity.

Now give everyone (or a certain segment of the population) $x per child per month. How does that play out? Goods get even more expensive because you have more money chasing the same items. Look at what happened with the EV credit. Prices went up overnight by the amount of said credit.

Government intervention into free market economics rarely works out as intended. Student loans and the price of college being one of several examples.
72   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Sep 4, 9:44pm  

The Romans built massive kilns and road networks to clay pits, then leased them out to small family independent contractors.

Standardized Roof Tiles and Amphorae were affordable and found as far away as Britain - in mid-level homes.

One Amphorae that must have been centuries old from Tarraco in what is today Catalonia near Barcelona, was buried with an Anglo-Saxon Chief in the Dark Ages as a prized possession. This would have been considered a "Meh" mass produced piece of ceramic. There's an entire artificial hill of broken potsherds outside Rome. It wouldn't even get a slave beaten for breaking them, they were so common.
73   AD   2025 Sep 4, 11:54pm  

.

should offer a universal incentive to produce and work

dangle a carrot in front of the donkey strategy

give credits to employers to hire and keep worker on the payroll

give bonuses to workers who remain on the job for at least 1 year as part of the universal incentive

.
74   Misc   2025 Sep 5, 2:34am  

AD says

.

should offer a universal incentive to produce and work

dangle a carrot in front of the donkey strategy

give credits to employers to hire and keep worker on the payroll

give bonuses to workers who remain on the job for at least 1 year as part of the universal incentive

.


We should not have the government do what an employer should do. Otherwise, taxpayers are subsidizing stockholders and corporate executives.
75   WookieMan   2025 Sep 5, 3:01am  

Misc says

AD says


.

should offer a universal incentive to produce and work

dangle a carrot in front of the donkey strategy

give credits to employers to hire and keep worker on the payroll

give bonuses to workers who remain on the job for at least 1 year as part of the universal incentive

.


We should not have the government do what an employer should do. Otherwise, taxpayers are subsidizing stockholders and corporate executives.

The government already does a bunch. Food stamps, section 8, free lunches for kids at school, tax returns for people that didn't pay a dime in federal or state taxes (negative tax payers), unemployment, etc. I have a former female friend that did this for 10 years and didn't have a job living in North Carolina. White trash. UBI is already here and has been.
76   AD   2025 Sep 5, 8:35pm  

NY Times reports the obvious. Top 10% account for 50% of consumer spending and own 90% of the stock market.

Keep an eye on quality of life and standard of living for the bottom 20% over the next 10 years.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Americans’ Most Valuable Asset Isn’t Stocks or a Home. It’s Social Security.
For the vast majority of people, the stream of promised retirement checks is worth more than anything else, our columnist says.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/business/social-security-wealth-benefits.html

.
77   FortWayneHatesRealtors   2025 Sep 5, 8:38pm  

Patrick says






It’s an Idea on how to pay illegals via tax dollars
78   HeadSet   2025 Sep 6, 2:58pm  

AD says

Americans’ Most Valuable Asset Isn’t Stocks or a Home. It’s Social Security.

I wonder if they include Medicare in that calculation.

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