patrick.net

Bitcoin says

mell says

Just stay away from tech and green/ev.

@mell
the future of cars is electric. Wouldnt it be a solid long term play to invest in green/ev? Curious to hear what your thoughts are.

Possibly but that's really only due to government mandates. There are still enormous problems with EVs, range and time to charge, cold weather etc. Also while governments embrace EVs more and more there is also more and more competition from legacy automakers, commoditization, plus tariffs make cheap production in China almost impossible. The tariffs are not necessarily bad, but made in US / Europe is much more expensive, and labor costs are only going to go up with the new administration. Solar may be similar, getting commoditized for a while now. And with increased costs they either need to raise prices (and lose customers) or lower their margins, I certainly could be wrong, but I can't see TSLA hitting $900 again within the next 2 years, even with inflation, plus last year was a huge gamma squeeze and the unwind in 2021 is not done yet, so it may fall further here to $500 or beiow. Technology and electronics in general have become quite more expensive to produce in the last 18 months.

@clambo

The problem is that you are not investing in Swiss anything, but the name. The total Swiss economy is about $700 billion. The balance sheet of the SNB is slightly over $1 trillion.

In contrast the US economy is about $17 trillion. The Fed's balance sheet is about $7 trillion dollars. If you think that money printing in the US is bad, it ain't got nothin' on the Swiss. We've gotta print... what another $11 trillion just to catch up?

The Swiss long ago ran out of domestic assets to buy, hence the negative interest rates on their bonds. The SNB is not interested in making money on their "investments", they are simply interested in anything with liquidity. With the currency manipulations implied by them buying massive amounts of foreign assets, when you invest in anything "Swiss" you are really investing in a "Global Asset" fund managed by the SNB. --- The SNB is the Swiss government.

Bitcoin says

the future of cars is electric.

Yes, and a few years back, solar power was the future, but anyone who invested in major players Solyndra or SunEdison lost it all.

mell says

Possibly but that's really only due to government mandates.

There's also the barrier to entry on multiple levels. It will take generations before people want them over ICE vehicles. Too many people just like them better regardless of anything else. They just want a big truck, SUV or sports car. And yes, EV's accelerate faster, but there's still a crowd that likes top end speed.

As you said range and charge times are hugely problematic for someone like me. I could maybe do it, but the wife for sure couldn't use an EV and be productive. Then there's the cost factor. Size factor. We have an Armada and Sequoia now given we have 3 kids and client transport. There's not an EV out there with the space and comfort that can beat either of those cars and have any worthwhile range.

Then cost. Expensive up front. Tesla has a decent track record now, but what are replacement costs on batteries once you hit a certain milage? Given you're not doing road trips with a Tesla, there's limited data on longevity after a certain milage. Batteries as always lose capacity over time. Great for someone driving under 12k miles a year, but not for someone driving 20-30k miles a year. Maybe my family is an anomaly, but that's what we drive per car (besides Covid years).

WookieMan says

mell says

Possibly but that's really only due to government mandates.

There's also the barrier to entry on multiple levels. It will take generations before people want them over ICE vehicles. Too many people just like them better regardless of anything else. They just want a big truck, SUV or sports car. And yes, EV's accelerate faster, but there's still a crowd that likes top end speed.

As you said range and charge times are hugely problematic for someone like me. I could maybe do it, but the wife for sure couldn't use an EV and be productive. Then there's the cost factor. Size factor. We have an Armada and Sequoia now given we have 3 kids and client transport. There's not an EV out there with the space and comfort that can beat either of those cars and have any worthwhile range.

Then cost. Expensive up front. Tesla has a decent track record now, but what are replacement ...

I'm somewhat surprised by the way-too-ready adoption of EVs by the various governments. Maybe if the country is small and doesn't get too cold it's ok but in the US there are thousands of remote, vacation and nature destinations that would be unreachable without ICEs. It would devastate the tourism there and cut people off which totally contradicts the rural fligh since covid. They don't know what they are doing with these stupid mandates imo. ICEs will become more and more popular as the dates grow nearer and new and used ICE car prices will skyrocket.

mell says

Bitcoin says

mell says

Just stay away from tech and green/ev.

@mell
the future of cars is electric. Wouldnt it be a solid long term play to invest in green/ev? Curious to hear what your thoughts are.

Possibly but that's really only due to government mandates. There are still enormous problems with EVs, range and time to charge, cold weather etc. Also while governments embrace EVs more and more there is also more and more competition from legacy automakers

yeah, i just think with inflation and this administration pushing green energy/ev there is upside. But we'll see. Times are crazy and stocks are driven by speculation and too much available money.

HeadSet says

anyone who invested in major players Solyndra or SunEdison lost it all.

You can say that for long term investors who kept HODL'ing. Every bubble has winners and many losers.

I drove to and from Vegas last weekend from LA. I didn’t see a single EV on the road on the way there and only one on the way back. They’re entirely ubiquitous in LA and OC, see them fucking everywhere! But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

@misc
The Swiss stocks are traded to everyone not just the Swiss National Bank.
I’m buying some of them.
If you own an international stock fund you own some too.
The reason for the negative interest rates on Swiss bonds may be the demand for a safe place to put money was very high.
Alternatively, one could buy Swiss stocks individually, but why bother?
I have been to Switzerland and the place is awesome, but that’s off the subject really.

Shaman says

apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

Maybe they want to, but they can't. It's not practical. How long does it take to recharge, even with one of those fast chargers, compared to refueling?

And running the AC, how much does that increase our fuel consumption? 5% or 10%? Betcha it's worse than that for an EV.

Shaman says

But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive

Glorified golf carts.

Teslas are overpriced commuter cars.
You need to blast the car AC in Florida 4 months of the year.
That’s going to reduce the car’s range.

B.A.C.A.H. says

And running the AC, how much does that increase our fuel consumption? 5% or 10%?

Not at all. I experimented with one of my cars several years ago: no noticeable difference in fuel consumption between "auto", "econ" and "a/c off".

Shaman says

I drove to and from Vegas last weekend from LA. I didn’t see a single EV on the road on the way there and only one on the way back. They’re entirely ubiquitous in LA and OC, see them fucking everywhere! But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

There is a taxi company running Teslas between LA and LV. Racked up huge miles on their fleet and claim they don't see any serious battery degradation.

FuckCCP89 says

Shaman says

I drove to and from Vegas last weekend from LA. I didn’t see a single EV on the road on the way there and only one on the way back. They’re entirely ubiquitous in LA and OC, see them fucking everywhere! But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

There is a taxi company running Teslas between LA and LV. Racked up huge miles on their fleet and claim they don't see any serious battery degradation.

At least it's always warm there.

Supposedly the tesla superchargers (the higher tier ones) can deliver some really impressive charging rates now, and improvements are still coming. You can rapidly charge the battery from low to 50%, but charging slows down as the battery gets closer and closer to 100%. I think they say you can get like 200 miles of range in 15 minutes on the charger, which is actually pretty damn good.

Now, that's nice for city driving, and maybe certain long trips where you happen to have those mega chargers spaced perfectly along the highway, as stopping every few hours for a 15-20 min break while it charges isnt a big deal to me. But I can still think of lots of drawbacks compared to gas cars, for now.

But, as larger batteries get more affordable and common (they do have some 600 mile range EVs in the works right now, but they cost $$$), and as charging infrastructure continues to expand, I think EVs will work pretty good for many people.

Personally, I like to drive and do many road trips, and often go rural and explore. Even though the tesla charging station map shows a charger every 200 miles or so, that doesnt mean its convenient to use.

Could you imagine :
-you're on a road trip.
-you stop and charge to near full (which takes time)
-drive north 150 miles, taking you to 60%, where you arrive at a T
-wanting to head west to your destination, but there's no chargers that way, and 60% isnt enough.
-you must instead head east for 70 miles to get to a charging station, where you charge.
-now drive back west, bringing you down to 80% when you reach the T again
-now, you can head west.

All that - 140 miles detour, hours wasted, just to gain a marginal extra charge, so that you can range though this rural area. That would drive me nuts.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/inflation-surges-4-2-percent-annually-to-a-13-year-high-in-april_3812609.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

mell says

FuckCCP89 says

Shaman says

I drove to and from Vegas last weekend from LA. I didn’t see a single EV on the road on the way there and only one on the way back. They’re entirely ubiquitous in LA and OC, see them fucking everywhere! But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

There is a taxi company running Teslas between LA and LV. Racked up huge miles on their fleet and claim they don't see any serious battery degradation.

At least it's always warm there.

Gets hot though.

Biden is pumping $s wherever he can including things like 'free' $50 internet for some. I am paying $40 that is less than the gov printing press. Most of the money going somewhere else as the numbers don't add up of 'stimulus' ongoing QE part of the rampant total corruption of corporations.

Hircus says

Supposedly the tesla superchargers (the higher tier ones) can deliver some really impressive charging rates now, and improvements are still coming. You can rapidly charge the battery from low to 50%, but charging slows down as the battery gets closer and closer to 100%. I think they say you can get like 200 miles of range in 15 minutes on the charger, which is actually pretty damn good.

Now, that's nice for city driving, and maybe certain long trips where you happen to have those mega chargers spaced perfectly along the highway, as stopping every few hours for a 15-20 min break while it charges isnt a big deal to me. But I can still think of lots of drawbacks compared to gas cars, for now.

But, as larger batteries get more affordable and common (they do have some 600 mile range EVs in the works right now, but they cost $$$), and as charging infrastructure continues to expand, I think EVs will work pretty good for many people.

Personally, I like to d...

Disclosure: I have a Tesla.
22,000 Tesla chargers total so far. Plus a fair number of non-Tesla Chargers, most not as fast charging.
There are about 110,000 Gas stations in the USA.
https://247wallst.com/energy-business/2020/08/02/how-many-gas-stations-are-there-in-u-s-why-its-important-to-know/

Musk was pretty brilliant to deploy the charging network in parallel with ramping EV production. The other companies still haven't caught on and adopted a single standard charger yet!! Honestly, the Government should fund a standard charging system, just like the Interstate System was funded. Instead, Tesla is the really only one who DID ANYTHING.

I'm willing to put up with some inconvenience to own a Tesla. Simple as that. I had to charge for the first time away from home the other day. I picked a 72KW station by mistake and took about 45 minutes to charge up. If I had chosen the 250Kw station less than two miles away, I would have charged up in 15 minutes. There is a learning curve, as with any new tech. But EVERY charging station is loaded into the Tesla Software with colors to show which ones are in range. This is constantly updated with Over The Air Software updates. If you choose to ignore the software and somehow run out of charge, Tesla has Roadside charging assistance.

Maybe Joe Sixpack isn't ready for EV's yet. But soon ICE vehicles will become more expensive and less convenient. "Wow, first thing I have to do today before I go driving is find a gas station!" My Tesla leaves the garage every day filled up.

rocketjoe79 says

Hircus says

Supposedly the tesla superchargers (the higher tier ones) can deliver some really impressive charging rates now, and improvements are still coming. You can rapidly charge the battery from low to 50%, but charging slows down as the battery gets closer and closer to 100%. I think they say you can get like 200 miles of range in 15 minutes on the charger, which is actually pretty damn good.

Now, that's nice for city driving, and maybe certain long trips where you happen to have those mega chargers spaced perfectly along the highway, as stopping every few hours for a 15-20 min break while it charges isnt a big deal to me. But I can still think of lots of drawbacks compared to gas cars, for now.

But, as larger batteries get more affordable and common (they do have some 600 mile range EVs in the works right now, but they cost $$$), and as charging infrastructure continues to expand...

I agree with you that TSLA has been ahead of its peers (but that comes with mistakes as well which its legacy peers won't have to repeat) and certainly a great investment early on and it will be a nice part of city and closer commutes, but that doesn't change the fact that there are a lot of challenges to overcome and that will be reflected in the stock price, the current decline shows no end in sight. IMO it will bounce around somewhere between $350-$700 for quite a while, and that is if it can keep meeting analysts expectations.

It's just a matter of time before ICE cars are impractical.

Onvacation says

It's just a matter of time before ICE cars are impractical.

Not sure about that, but if so, then all the legacy car makers are now also EV car makers and so they all are "just car makers" like they used to be when only ICE were around. With all the margin pressure etc. Also I think that modern diesel are superior to EVs but the governments are obviously bought off by the fake climate change globalists, so it will be hard for alternative engines (also hydrogen and others) to compete with EVs due to government meddling.

Patrick says

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/inflation-surges-4-2-percent-annually-to-a-13-year-high-in-april_3812609.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

What will this do to the housing market?

If salaries go up, then housing prices will probably go up too.

But I'm not too sure about salaries going up.

Patrick says

If salaries go up, then housing prices will probably go up too.

But I'm not too sure about salaries going up.

If Biden kept paying for not working, employers have to bump up the pay to get workers.

clambo says

Teslas are overpriced commuter cars.
You need to blast the car AC in Florida 4 months of the year.
That’s going to reduce the car’s range.

AC doesn’t reduce range much at all. Now the heater sure does! I own a Honda Clarity Plug in hybrid. It’s a pretty solid car and I like I can use full EV for daily commute and the hybrid gas for longer drives. But driving it in EV is much more fun and smooth ride. The tiny hybrid engine has trouble if you let the battery run to zero.

I don’t drive much, so I only had to fill up my 7 gallon tank like 4 times this past year. That’s kinda awesome and charging overnight is so easy and convenient.

Driving my clarity has convinced me to buy an EV next vehicle. I just don’t go on that many long drives per year to warrant needing an ICE. And an EV with 250-300 mile range that charges 80% in 15 minutes is pretty standard now.

I like the Chevy Bolt.
I might buy one someday if I decide I have reached geezer status and don't like driving much.
In Florida electric rates are 1/3 those of California so it's very economical to drive.

Patrick says

If salaries go up, then housing prices will probably go up too.

I think that's called "wage push inflation", but I'm not sure. We had it in the 70's starting in 1974 when about every 18 months we'd get what was called a "blanket" raise where everyone in the company got about 8% or 9% increase to keep up with inflation. In 1976, I had a merit raise and a blanket raise come into effect on the same check and I thought, I'll never need a raise again. In three months a rent increase wiped it out. Employers have gotten wise, now, don't do many of those anymore.

NDrLoR says

Employers have gotten wise, now, don't do many of those anymore.

Yep, nowadays you pretty much need to jump ship for a raise.

https://m.theepochtimes.com/inflation-overtakes-ccp-virus-as-biggest-risk-for-investors-bank-of-america_3737610.html

Inflation is now investors most pressing concern.

FuckCCP89 says

Yep, nowadays you pretty much need to jump ship for a raise.

only avg, joes.
High performers at successful companies get high boni, RSU's and nice pay raises. That's what I got for last years performance plus work from home.
Have to admit, the company also had its best year in 2020 in its history.

FuckCCP89 says

Yep, nowadays you pretty much need to jump ship for a raise.

It's been that way for decades.

Will inflation stop any chance of bubbles popping? House being a hard asset will increase from inflation countering any bubble popping and same with stocks? Maybe at worse the decreases we were expecting will be countered and stay flat.

What are you guys putting your money into as a counter?

Blue says

Patrick says

If salaries go up, then housing prices will probably go up too.

But I'm not too sure about salaries going up.

If Biden kept paying for not working, employers have to bump up the pay to get workers.

And they are. $7,500 bonus to drive a non-CDL van (3 rows) for airport transfers in Chicagoland. No one wants to work. Employers are paying you just to apply.

Servers aren't coming back to restaurants. Low wage labor doesn't have to go back to work (for now) if they were laid off. No incentive to do so. Won't change until the extra UE benefits go away. Otherwise expect long waits where low wage service labor is required as things get somewhat back to normal. The demand will outpace the staff available at a lot of establishments.

Dems cause hyperinflation, gov debt goes down, pay goes up more taxes, properties go up more taxes, stocks go up more taxes. Seems lile what they are trying to do but it's a dangerous game.

This woman has some good insights:

https://www.lynalden.com/may-2021-newsletter/

... at the end of a long-term debt cycle, debt levels get so large relative to the size of the economy that it becomes impossible to deleverage them nominally without crashing the economy, so instead the denominators are increased: the monetary base, the broad money supply, and nominal GDP with a significant inflation component. The mechanism to do this involves large monetized fiscal deficits, accompanied by a central bank willing to hold rates well below the prevailing inflation rate for a while, which effectively inflates portions of the debt away.

The alternative to this process is a deflationary economic collapse, which is a route that the public and policymakers around the world rarely if ever choose. In other words, when push comes to shove and the system is pushed to its limits, policymakers invariably print.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1032048/value-us-dollar-since-1640/

You can play the EV market by buying Magna International. They are already profitable and makes parts for the EV market. Kinda like, don't bet on a particular country in the war, just the company building the bombs.