patrick.net

Stagflation incoming

Tell me again why don't housing costs get included in the inflation numbers?

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_morningbrief/bidens-hidden-tax-increase_3801947.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

Biden’s Hidden Tax Increase
Newt Gingrich

Every American is going to pay higher taxes due to the Biden administration’s policies.

Remember that inflation is a hidden tax.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_morningbrief/inflation-fears-grow-as-commodity-prices-take-off_3802545.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

Inflation Fears Grow as Commodity Prices Take Off
BY EMEL AKAN May 4, 2021
WASHINGTON—Economists have started to feel more uncomfortable that the Federal Reserve could be too complacent with its inflation forecast and end up tightening the monetary policy a bit too late to prevent harmful inflation.

I find it hard that inflation will be here to stay if we keep the flood gates open for chinese products.
The money Biden is sending is gone in some time(mostly to china) without creating employment etc. for long term demand.

There will be lot of demand destruction due to lack of employment and steady income.
Bay area or other "elite products" especially antiques will keep rising due to wealth bubbling up to top.

I'm not worrying about inflation but taxes scare me.
Biden wants 100% tax "inflation" in a year.

clambo says

I'm not worrying about inflation but taxes scare me.
Biden wants 100% tax "inflation" in a year.

Why don't they just rename country to "People's republic of America" and do easy confiscation.
Our gunners have already proven that they are not worth anything to defend the republic.

latest 3 month % change:
asphalt >30%
lumber > 35%
iron & steel > 35%
gasoline close to 40%
Diesel fuel >30%

high inflation is real and here.

noobster says

Tell me again why don't housing costs get included in the inflation numbers?

If they don't hide, it appears in double digit otherwise. That is bad news for politicians.

I think we are even seeing wage inflation. There are shortages across the board because gov is paying people not to work.

RC2006 says

With all the people collecting "free money"

Prices had been raised at two restaurants I frequent on the same day each week.

Shaman says

Stagflation incoming

1974

The thing is though, this covid reopening is not a gradual smooth transition - its very sudden, with lots of significant effects upon peoples behavior and spending. Basically, a big sudden increase in purchases of certain things. Not all of it, but much of it, is pent up demand.

So I wonder how long it will last. I think a lot of it will fade off and go back to normal, although I'm sure we'll see some new normals as a result.

A couple months ago Powell said he would be hesitant to take his foot off the gas this yr, even if he sees inflation. His reasoning was that he expected a jump this yr, and thinks he needs to wait for sustained inflation before he should consider it something the fed should act on and raise rates to fight. He said that despite all their efforts, they had such difficulty getting sustained inflation for more than a qtr, and that they also wanted things to "run hot" for a while, I think in the mid 2% range, to make up for the years when we ran cold under 2%. So he sounded very skeptical that we would get sustained inflation after the transition back to normal life is complete, but he did say we may see some this yr.

Then again, I don't really trust what govt says. They "need to" lie to us, "for the greater good™". Combine printed money with lots of other out of the ordinary things and rule/law changes, and I'm not surprised at all that were seeing inflation in certain specific areas.

Hircus says

this covid reopening is not a gradual smooth transition

It's much like the inflation after the World Wars and Vietnam.

https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-proposes-2-trillion-bill-to-study-whats-causing-inflation-to-rise

Patrick says

https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-proposes-2-trillion-bill-to-study-whats-causing-inflation-to-rise

If this is true, he will be THE worst president ever.

To fight back I am buying a Swiss stock ETF.
Franklin Templeton, symbol FLSW.

clambo says

To fight back I am buying a Swiss stock ETF.
Franklin Templeton, symbol FLSW.

Once upon a time, this would have worked. However, during the "Great Recession" there was such a huge inflow of money into Switzerland it increased the value of the Swiss Franc to where Swiss companies could not compete. The Swiss National Bank tried going negative interest rates...that didn't stop the flow. Then they tried buying foreign currencies, then they tried buying massive amounts of foreign bonds. Still money poured into Switzerland. To keep their companies competitive, the SNB finally bought stocks of pretty much anyone. The SNB is now the largest holder of AAPL in the world.

The United States has labelled the Swiss a currency manipulator, but really what were they gonna do. The Swiss economy simply isn't even close to big enough to support the funds that were coming in.

Your idea to invest in Swiss companies is dubious, as that market is completely manipulated.

At least my assets are inflating ridiculously as well. Maybe they will hold par on actual purchasing price and value, but I doubt it.

Ceffer says

At least my assets are inflating ridiculously as well. Maybe they will hold par on actual purchasing price and value, but I doubt it.

Stocks and house are inflating nicely, gotta play the game. Just stay away from tech and green/ev.

@Misc
The first time I visited Switzerland, $1 US=3 Swiss Francs.
Today, $1.11 US=1 Swiss Franc.

Stock prices which are traded in exchanges are difficult to manipulate but I don’t know.

The so called “International Stock” mutual funds own Swiss stocks.

The problem is that there are not so many Swiss corporations.

If a Swiss bank owns AAPL, what the hell, I like the stonk too.

Capital flight to Switzerland made sense, they have their collective shit together there.

mell says

Just stay away from tech and green/ev.

@mell
the future of cars is electric. Wouldnt it be a solid long term play to invest in green/ev? Curious to hear what your thoughts are.

Bitcoin says

mell says

Just stay away from tech and green/ev.

@mell
the future of cars is electric. Wouldnt it be a solid long term play to invest in green/ev? Curious to hear what your thoughts are.

Possibly but that's really only due to government mandates. There are still enormous problems with EVs, range and time to charge, cold weather etc. Also while governments embrace EVs more and more there is also more and more competition from legacy automakers, commoditization, plus tariffs make cheap production in China almost impossible. The tariffs are not necessarily bad, but made in US / Europe is much more expensive, and labor costs are only going to go up with the new administration. Solar may be similar, getting commoditized for a while now. And with increased costs they either need to raise prices (and lose customers) or lower their margins, I certainly could be wrong, but I can't see TSLA hitting $900 again within the next 2 years, even with inflation, plus last year was a huge gamma squeeze and the unwind in 2021 is not done yet, so it may fall further here to $500 or beiow. Technology and electronics in general have become quite more expensive to produce in the last 18 months.

@clambo

The problem is that you are not investing in Swiss anything, but the name. The total Swiss economy is about $700 billion. The balance sheet of the SNB is slightly over $1 trillion.

In contrast the US economy is about $17 trillion. The Fed's balance sheet is about $7 trillion dollars. If you think that money printing in the US is bad, it ain't got nothin' on the Swiss. We've gotta print... what another $11 trillion just to catch up?

The Swiss long ago ran out of domestic assets to buy, hence the negative interest rates on their bonds. The SNB is not interested in making money on their "investments", they are simply interested in anything with liquidity. With the currency manipulations implied by them buying massive amounts of foreign assets, when you invest in anything "Swiss" you are really investing in a "Global Asset" fund managed by the SNB. --- The SNB is the Swiss government.

Bitcoin says

the future of cars is electric.

Yes, and a few years back, solar power was the future, but anyone who invested in major players Solyndra or SunEdison lost it all.

mell says

Possibly but that's really only due to government mandates.

There's also the barrier to entry on multiple levels. It will take generations before people want them over ICE vehicles. Too many people just like them better regardless of anything else. They just want a big truck, SUV or sports car. And yes, EV's accelerate faster, but there's still a crowd that likes top end speed.

As you said range and charge times are hugely problematic for someone like me. I could maybe do it, but the wife for sure couldn't use an EV and be productive. Then there's the cost factor. Size factor. We have an Armada and Sequoia now given we have 3 kids and client transport. There's not an EV out there with the space and comfort that can beat either of those cars and have any worthwhile range.

Then cost. Expensive up front. Tesla has a decent track record now, but what are replacement costs on batteries once you hit a certain milage? Given you're not doing road trips with a Tesla, there's limited data on longevity after a certain milage. Batteries as always lose capacity over time. Great for someone driving under 12k miles a year, but not for someone driving 20-30k miles a year. Maybe my family is an anomaly, but that's what we drive per car (besides Covid years).

WookieMan says

mell says

Possibly but that's really only due to government mandates.

There's also the barrier to entry on multiple levels. It will take generations before people want them over ICE vehicles. Too many people just like them better regardless of anything else. They just want a big truck, SUV or sports car. And yes, EV's accelerate faster, but there's still a crowd that likes top end speed.

As you said range and charge times are hugely problematic for someone like me. I could maybe do it, but the wife for sure couldn't use an EV and be productive. Then there's the cost factor. Size factor. We have an Armada and Sequoia now given we have 3 kids and client transport. There's not an EV out there with the space and comfort that can beat either of those cars and have any worthwhile range.

Then cost. Expensive up front. Tesla has a decent track record now, but what are replacement ...

I'm somewhat surprised by the way-too-ready adoption of EVs by the various governments. Maybe if the country is small and doesn't get too cold it's ok but in the US there are thousands of remote, vacation and nature destinations that would be unreachable without ICEs. It would devastate the tourism there and cut people off which totally contradicts the rural fligh since covid. They don't know what they are doing with these stupid mandates imo. ICEs will become more and more popular as the dates grow nearer and new and used ICE car prices will skyrocket.

mell says

Bitcoin says

mell says

Just stay away from tech and green/ev.

@mell
the future of cars is electric. Wouldnt it be a solid long term play to invest in green/ev? Curious to hear what your thoughts are.

Possibly but that's really only due to government mandates. There are still enormous problems with EVs, range and time to charge, cold weather etc. Also while governments embrace EVs more and more there is also more and more competition from legacy automakers

yeah, i just think with inflation and this administration pushing green energy/ev there is upside. But we'll see. Times are crazy and stocks are driven by speculation and too much available money.

HeadSet says

anyone who invested in major players Solyndra or SunEdison lost it all.

You can say that for long term investors who kept HODL'ing. Every bubble has winners and many losers.

I drove to and from Vegas last weekend from LA. I didn’t see a single EV on the road on the way there and only one on the way back. They’re entirely ubiquitous in LA and OC, see them fucking everywhere! But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

@misc
The Swiss stocks are traded to everyone not just the Swiss National Bank.
I’m buying some of them.
If you own an international stock fund you own some too.
The reason for the negative interest rates on Swiss bonds may be the demand for a safe place to put money was very high.
Alternatively, one could buy Swiss stocks individually, but why bother?
I have been to Switzerland and the place is awesome, but that’s off the subject really.

Shaman says

apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

Maybe they want to, but they can't. It's not practical. How long does it take to recharge, even with one of those fast chargers, compared to refueling?

And running the AC, how much does that increase our fuel consumption? 5% or 10%? Betcha it's worse than that for an EV.

Shaman says

But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive

Glorified golf carts.

Teslas are overpriced commuter cars.
You need to blast the car AC in Florida 4 months of the year.
That’s going to reduce the car’s range.

B.A.C.A.H. says

And running the AC, how much does that increase our fuel consumption? 5% or 10%?

Not at all. I experimented with one of my cars several years ago: no noticeable difference in fuel consumption between "auto", "econ" and "a/c off".

Shaman says

I drove to and from Vegas last weekend from LA. I didn’t see a single EV on the road on the way there and only one on the way back. They’re entirely ubiquitous in LA and OC, see them fucking everywhere! But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

There is a taxi company running Teslas between LA and LV. Racked up huge miles on their fleet and claim they don't see any serious battery degradation.

FuckCCP89 says

Shaman says

I drove to and from Vegas last weekend from LA. I didn’t see a single EV on the road on the way there and only one on the way back. They’re entirely ubiquitous in LA and OC, see them fucking everywhere! But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

There is a taxi company running Teslas between LA and LV. Racked up huge miles on their fleet and claim they don't see any serious battery degradation.

At least it's always warm there.

Supposedly the tesla superchargers (the higher tier ones) can deliver some really impressive charging rates now, and improvements are still coming. You can rapidly charge the battery from low to 50%, but charging slows down as the battery gets closer and closer to 100%. I think they say you can get like 200 miles of range in 15 minutes on the charger, which is actually pretty damn good.

Now, that's nice for city driving, and maybe certain long trips where you happen to have those mega chargers spaced perfectly along the highway, as stopping every few hours for a 15-20 min break while it charges isnt a big deal to me. But I can still think of lots of drawbacks compared to gas cars, for now.

But, as larger batteries get more affordable and common (they do have some 600 mile range EVs in the works right now, but they cost $$$), and as charging infrastructure continues to expand, I think EVs will work pretty good for many people.

Personally, I like to drive and do many road trips, and often go rural and explore. Even though the tesla charging station map shows a charger every 200 miles or so, that doesnt mean its convenient to use.

Could you imagine :
-you're on a road trip.
-you stop and charge to near full (which takes time)
-drive north 150 miles, taking you to 60%, where you arrive at a T
-wanting to head west to your destination, but there's no chargers that way, and 60% isnt enough.
-you must instead head east for 70 miles to get to a charging station, where you charge.
-now drive back west, bringing you down to 80% when you reach the T again
-now, you can head west.

All that - 140 miles detour, hours wasted, just to gain a marginal extra charge, so that you can range though this rural area. That would drive me nuts.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/inflation-surges-4-2-percent-annually-to-a-13-year-high-in-april_3812609.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

mell says

FuckCCP89 says

Shaman says

I drove to and from Vegas last weekend from LA. I didn’t see a single EV on the road on the way there and only one on the way back. They’re entirely ubiquitous in LA and OC, see them fucking everywhere! But apparently nobody wants to take them on a longer drive.

There is a taxi company running Teslas between LA and LV. Racked up huge miles on their fleet and claim they don't see any serious battery degradation.

At least it's always warm there.

Gets hot though.