patrick.net

Given patrick's numbers (and I'm not holding him to them) if he thinks 50,000 people have died from the vaccine, and agrees that 150 million have been vaccinated, this is a 1 in 3000 chance of dying from the vaccine. It might be more or less depending on age and other health factors, but roughly speaking, that is the risk.

There are other risks too! Guille barre syndrome, (or whatever the name is) heart inflamation and damage (vascular in general), etc.

Am I trying to sugar coat this?? No!

I'm trying to do what engineers do: Establish data that we can use to compare and make decisions with, even if it is ugly. I try to show all the work and calculations so that you can see it with me. Transparency will show that I'm not pushing an agenda. If the data comes out and says fuck no don't take the vaccine!, then that is what it says!

So lets look at the virus: assume we agree that 30 million people have been infected, and we use Patrick's number of 200k virus deaths.
In our population of 300 Million, this means overall you have about a 10% chance of contracting the virus. Your SPECIFIC chance could be MUCH lower or higher! If you live isolated in North Dakota, you have almost zero chance of catching the virus!

But on average, we have a 10% chance so far. Out of those 30 million so far, we are saying 200k have died. This means if you catch the virus, you have about a 1 in 150 chance of dying. Again, could be much lower or higher based on your risk factors like age, weight, health, etc... But ON AVERAGE it's about 1 in 150... using Patrick's numbers!

Now you have your risk factors for the averages. So now you can apply your risk factors to YOUR situation.

If you think you are younger and in better general health, then you are probably lower than 1 in 150 of dying if you catch it.

Note I am not saying you SHOULD take it, or SHAMING you if you say you won't. I'm not encouraging you to even do one thing or another! All I am doing is showing you risk factors based on numbers that Patrick at least has put forth... You can take your beliefs and plug them in here also. In fact, a wise thing to do is to give yourself a range.

If the cdc is fudging a lot like patrick thinks.. this is what the numbers look like.. If they are accurate, then the numbers look differntly like this... and if they are underestimating or missing, then the risk would be X...

Now I will tell you MY take based on patrick's numbers.

1 in 150 on average is probably skewed older. So if I was over 55 looking at something like a 1 in 50 shot of dying if I get this disease, it would be a no-brainer, even with the fudged cdc numbers. This is vs 1 in 3600, or lets say 1 in 1000 odds of dying from the vaccine. It still isn't safe, but at the relatively high risk of death, and likely higher risk of complications not causing death, like heart issues, or lung issues, I would consider it the safer option.

Based on patricks numbers, age 40-55, I'm probably looking at a 1 in 400-500 chance of dying from covid if I get it.Still pretty risky, but much better odds. My covid vaccine risk is probably closer to average at 1 in 3000 - 5000 of dying. So less risky than getting covid, but still 100% chance I am taking that risk vs I only MIGHT get Covid. Still, if 10% of people caught covid so far, the number is going to keep rising, so it's a pretty fair chance I will catch it. So this might be a toss up. I might be on the fence. I might lean in the direction of getting the vaccine in the interest of not accidentally passing on the virus to one of my kids.

Under 40, my risk of dying of covid is much smaller. Likely so is my vaccine risk. I'm probably down to 1/1000 chance of covid death, and 1 in 10,000 chance of vaccine death.
But with such a low risk of problems with the vaccine (1/10000) to ME it is worth it to be vaccinated.

Now all of this is with PATRICK's numbers. If I use CDC numbers, the virus is fucking ravaging. that 1 in 150 chance of death is more like 1 in 50 ON AVERAGE (600k deaths in 30M people infected). Over 55 should be avoiding public like the plague, and pleading to get hands on vaccine. Its probably more like 1 in 40, or even 1 in 30 or 20 if you are 70+... Fuck masks, the elderly should be self isolating like a motherfucker. If I was 65, I would have armed guards around my perimeter until I got the vaccine. I'd be wearing a respirator and pressure washing delivered groceries in a hazmat suit if I could. This is just what the numbers tell me.... This is why I tend to underplay CDC numbers a bit.. It's what the evidence seems to suggest that its not quite that bad.

I've never seen the CDC numbers suggest anything greater than 1% chance of infection or death. Did you ever refactor any of your figures to account for the many discrepancies I mentioned, especially when it comes to VAERS?

My personal experience from first hand accounts also lines up with this, as we only know three who got covid in over a year, two where in poor health, and one got it after their shot, and zero deaths.

Interested to hear what you find, and what your personal experience has been.

Death is death, but I am certainly more concerned about living with deteriorating co-morbidities over a period of time. The couple of people who got very sick that we know of didn't report it. For some reason, they had Stockholm syndrome where they thought getting really sick was just part of becoming 'permanently' immune.

That, and not trusting the bullshit the fucking lying liars have lied about, and continue to lie about, making up fantasies to get people to do this and stoking fear. Why would anybody take anything from these vicious fools? You really think there is going to be an upside?

Zak,

I believe you to be a dishonest person. The numbers cannot be known. Don't you get it yet? Endless tail chasing is what TPTB have everyone doing. Wake up man.

Zak says

So your numbers are you think 30 people in the country got sick and no one died from Covid?

Is that your belief? If not, please correct me.

1 of 30 ended up with flu like symptoms. The others didn't know they had anything and we tested due to work or they went and got a test because someone near them tested positive. These are people I personally know.

I'm arguing that it's not a remotely severe illness/virus in the vast majority of people. I know a semi-pro hockey player, his entire team god covid (he's only one of 30 I personally know). Everybody. Not one of them felt sick outside of the no smell issue.

I'm not anti-vax, but there's almost zero point in most of the population getting the vax. I don't care about the deaths. The 3 I've heard of, from friends of friends, were all pretty much dead with major illness or unhealthy. Basically at deaths door anyway. Honestly this virus is putting people out of their misery. Frankly, I think it's a good thing instead of letting mostly dead people live out a horrible end to their life.

Government is weaponizing the fear of death to take your tax dollars and buy hundreds of millions of vaccines to inject into you. Give free money to people that make up to and over $150k depending on how you file taxes. If you don't see the problem with that, I'm not sure what else to tell you. My anecdotal evidence is just that, but it's enough for me to realize this virus is mostly bull shit.

There are 100's of things more deadly that we could regulate and try to protect people from more dangerous than covid. We've shut down the world from a mundane, very mundane flu bug. Yet we allow people to drink and smoke. Both more deadly than covid. But hey, whatever. You've bought the narrative and it doesn't seem like anyone here will change your mind. Enjoy living in fear.

I do know one person, well knew I should say at this point, he died 2 weeks after getting vaccine couple of month back. We think it's vaccine related, he wasn't unhealthy, just average.

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

I do know one person, well knew I should say at this point, he died 2 weeks after getting vaccine couple of month back. We think it's vaccine related, he wasn't unhealthy, just average.

I've only heard of bad reactions from the jab from my anecdotal knowledge, the jab is worse than the actual virus. This included people that had already gotten Covid that I mention in my previous comment.

Haven't heard of deaths from the jab yet in my personal sphere. Or at least any suspicious deaths after recent vaccination. Doesn't much matter. Covid is mundane and I'm not taking a shot not approved by the FDA, that could make me sick for a week plus and have potential long term effects that we know nothing about. There hasn't been proper clinical trial, the media push on this is frankly alarming and should make everyone question WTF is going on. Some people are smarter than others though. Oh well.

WookieMan says

Haven't heard of deaths from the jab yet in my personal sphere. Or at least any suspicious deaths after recent vaccination. Doesn't much matter. Covid is mundane and I'm not taking a shot not approved by the FDA, that could make me sick for a week plus and have potential long term effects that we know nothing about. There hasn't been proper clinical trial, the media push on this is frankly alarming and should make everyone question WTF is going on. Some people are smarter than others though. Oh well.

What makes me question all this shit they are pushing is their insane levels of censorship of early treatment and insane level of censorship of failed vaccines (they call that now breakthrough cases). Forcing people to stay home, they are fucking killing us. Fucking Republicans better go get jobs at Quiznos like Tucker said, if they don't start speaking up, fucking cowards.

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

Fucking Republicans better go get jobs at Quiznos like Tucker said, if they don't start speaking up, fucking cowards.

How would you know if they are speaking up, since they are getting censored?

zzyzzx says

How would you know if they are speaking up, since they are getting censored?

They are, just not on sources most people would visit. Not a knock on Patrick, as it's probably not his fault, but I'm sure sites like this are censored on the major search engines or buried on page 20. You have to take extra steps to find places like this.

Social media has changed the game. The majority of 40 and under are using those site like Twitter and Facebook (I'm sure there are newer ones too). They're censoring people that question what's going on. Older people also use those sites. We have what I'd call a vocal minority OF the majority because of social media and they get news from the MSM.

All my high school buddies and college buddies besides one hasn't and won't get the jab. Some are pretty left leaning too. We're all under 45 though. I think 3 from our core group of about 15-20 have gotten Covid. Big fat nothing burger for them. I don't even think those guys lost sense of smell. Were just tested for work or potential "exposure" to someone with Covid.

No one is taking Covid seriously. Half of the people I know that got the vaccine did it against their own choice. Work or thought it would protect grandma or mom. We come to find out it doesn't protect you from spreading it, as is the case with any flu bug. AND you can still get sick yourself. When you call it a vaccine, I was thinking more along the lines of measles, small pox, polio, etc.

Covid won't and can't go away. It's a virus. We just have to hope when we get it a 2nd or 3rd time our immune system does it's work. Which it will and we won't notice a thing. Hell, the first time most don't even know it without being required to test for it or thinking you were around someone that was positive.

WookieMan says

Zak says

So your numbers are you think 30 people in the country got sick and no one died from Covid?

Is that your belief? If not, please correct me.

Just reread this, it was early. I am talking about 30 people I personally know and have talked to about their Covid symptoms multiple times. I'm not saying 1 in 30 nationwide. It's likely more than 30 friends and clients as well, I'm just rounding.

Only one person I know went to an urgent care clinic and was sent home to rest and recover. Even doctors know this is absolutely mundane. They didn't give him anything.

It manifests itself in people with existing conditions, especially those with poor lungs due to heart and weight issues. The one doc visit I mention above for my friend was and still is a chronic pot smoker. Sun up to sun down. People can say pot is safe, but if you smoke it enough there has to be damage to the lungs and he got it the worst and even that was a quick doctor visit and 2 weeks in bed, stop smoking and drink water. He felt like shit, but in hindsight he's said it really wasn't that bad.

If you're healthy you'll be fine. Nobody has a clue what this vaccine can do to you long term. Again, nobody including the people that made it.

WineHorror1 says

I believe you to be a dishonest person. The numbers cannot be known

If you believe ME to be dishonest, you better run and hide because the world has some people for you to meet.

When someone is transparent with you, shows you their thought process, and puts all the pieces on the table for you to examine for yourself... if your response is that they are dishonest, you might want to consider that you have some kind of mental issue, and get some help.

NuttBoxer says

I've never seen the CDC numbers suggest anything greater than 1% chance of infection or death. Did you ever refactor any of your figures to account for the many discrepancies I mentioned, especially when it comes to VAERS?

My personal experience from first hand accounts also lines up with this, as we only know three who got covid in over a year, two where in poor health, and one got it after their shot, and zero deaths.

Interested to hear what you find, and what your personal experience has been.

The average ifr for Covid has been established at around 0.2% so 1 in 500, for those below 50 or without co-morbidities it's likely more around 1 in 5000, with a 20% chance of catching it, whereas the vaccine death rate is at 1 in 10000 but with a 100% chance if you take the jab. And that doesn't include any of the long-term side-effects and other SAE which would lead to a greatly reduced quality of life span and accelerated death. Also this assumes the vaccine actually works against the prominent mutations which - given the recent data - does not seem to be the case at all, it does not even reduce hospitalizations or death since the delta variant gained a stronger foothold. Somebody posted Australia's or NZs latest report where only 1 out of the recent deaths was not vaccinated. Pretty much all the propaganda about how the unvaccinated die disproportionally is at this point a bold faced lie (the experimental biological agents likely provided somewhat decent protection against the earlier variants, but that's why you don't mass vaccinate during a pandemic, see L. Montagnier). At least while the yearly flu vaccine can be a toss up and could lead to ADE the more shots you get we have enough empirical data that is does somewhat mitigate the seriousness, even if the strains in the cocktail don't match the dominant flu strain(s) of the season.

WookieMan says

The majority of 40 and under are using those site like Twitter and Facebook

From people I know in their 20's, Facebook is dead among them. They say "Facebook is just for old people."

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

I do know one person, well knew I should say at this point, he died 2 weeks after getting vaccine couple of month back. We think it's vaccine related, he wasn't unhealthy, just average.

@FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut Would you add some more about him to this thread? :

https://patrick.net/post/1340336/2021-07-29-thread-for-vax-deaths-maimings-and-severe

Zak says

50,000 people per year die in car accidents, it is NOT safe.

The question is: is it worth the risk?

My point is that the 50,000 deaths so far from the vaxx is only the tip of the iceberg as more and more people develop chronic debilitating diseases from it. This does not happen with riding in a car.

I think there may well be millions dead or crippled from the vaxx in America alone in the coming years. Literally on the scale of WWII genocide.

Hopefully I'm wrong. Are you 100% certain I'm wrong?

Zak says

Do you agree that about 160 million have been vaccinated?

No, I think it's far less, and this is one reason for the bribes and coercion to submit to the vaxx.

PeopleUnited says

Patrick says

I think about 200,00 actually died of the virus,

How many of those deaths could have been prevented by use of therapeutics such as Ivermectin and HCQ/zinc?

I'm guessing about half.

Patrick says

WookieMan says

The majority of 40 and under are using those site like Twitter and Facebook

From people I know in their 20's, Facebook is dead among them. They say "Facebook is just for old people."

Sure tech types out in SFBA may not be. I'm aging, but still know a decent amount of 20 somethings. It's still popular. Half the accounts are fake anyway. But anyone in sales even at 24 years old needs to be on FB. It's an easy way to market and stay in touch with clients/customers. If I'm 24 and selling something, I have to be on FB. It's free marketing.

You can't make money without selling to the old people. The old people need to sell to the young, so FB is pretty ironclad for a while. It will go away at some point, but not anytime soon in my estimation.

I'm not saying I like it, but use it more as a utility if that makes sense. It's free. I can chat with people where cell signal is shitty, but have wifi. I'm not a supporter of FB and understand the data issues with being a part of it. But I don't really have a choice. Twitter is pure trash. I'm taking the lesser of two evils route. There's no other widely adopted option that is better. I went to college 2001-2005. I got an account then. My data is fucked so I don't care. I also don't do anything illegal. My stances on most stuff is middle of the road, at least I think so. So not worried about some government data crack down on dissenters.

Patrick says

I think there may well be millions dead or crippled from the vaxx in America alone in the coming years. Literally on the scale of WWII genocide.

More badly needed downward pressure in housing prices!

Patrick says

No, I think it's far less, and this is one reason for the bribes and coercion to submit to the vaxx.

https://uncanceled.news/why-are-globalists-and-governments-so-desperate-for-100-vaccination-rates/

The stage is being set, in my view, for a mass infertility event, and covid will be blamed in place of the experimental vaccines. This is why the establishment needs a 100% vaccination rate; unvaccinated people would stand as evidence of their crime. Let me explain…

My concern is that Klaus Schwab’s reset agenda is impossible to enforce in a permanent way unless the human population is greatly reduced over a short period of time (a generation or two). Globalists are constantly talking about population control and reduction. Elites like Bill Gates are famous for it. Is it any wonder that they would devise a plan to institute it?

What if, as many experts have suggested, the vaccine side effects create this condition of a diminishing population? What if they are meant to? We will not know for certain for a couple of years at least as autoimmune disorders and infertility take time to become visible in a population. The average timeline for actually diagnosing an autoimmune disorder is 4.5 years. Infertility can take six months to a year to diagnose.

If a large population of millions of people remain unvaccinated after the next couple of years, then they will represent a sizable and undeniable control group.

Patrick says

PeopleUnited says

Patrick says

I think about 200,00 actually died of the virus,

How many of those deaths could have been prevented by use of therapeutics such as Ivermectin and HCQ/zinc?

I'm guessing about half.

Fauci and the rest of his cabal need to be held accountable for these deaths. They are complicit in the creation of the WuFlu, they are responsible for vilifying effective treatments and now they are responsible for every single Adverse event including deaths and permanent disabilities in the recipients of the experimental injections.

Everyone who has been vaccinated died immediately.

This is why no one is left in Vermont.

Dr Peter McCullough at a Texas state testimony a few months ago estimated 85% could have been spared death from the coof if doctors had been encouraged to use Ivermectin and other therapeutics.

SumatraBosch says

Everyone who has been vaccinated died immediately.

Not true, only about 50,000 deaths from blood clots so far, and massive ADE spread through the population, which could kill millions more.

Zak says

WineHorror1 says

I believe you to be a dishonest person. The numbers cannot be known

If you believe ME to be dishonest, you better run and hide because the world has some people for you to meet.

I also don't believe you're an honest person.

Patrick says

My point is that the 50,000 deaths so far from the vaxx is only the tip of the iceberg as more and more people develop chronic debilitating diseases from it.

So patrick.. Do you disagee with my general methodolgy of figuring out what I think is risky or not?

Just wondering if overall you agree with my assessment of how to figure out risk stats? Again, free to modify incoming assumptions if we believe there is better info/data in the input (but we shouldn't change input stats because we don't like the output assessment).

I can absolutely agree that the number of deaths for the jab can or will get higher than 50000 as time passes..

My only take on this though is that given the jab and the virus are both using that spike protein... It seems likely if more add on death or disabilities are coming for the vax, then the same or similar additional deaths are coming from the virus..

Agreed... there could be other stuff in the vax that isn't in the virus, but looking at stats, the stuff in the virus (DNA w/ replication) is the far deadlier thing than anything that might be in the virus for later.... Again, this is just based on the stats we talked about, and if you agree with the method I used.

We didn't talk about other things that might be EVEN SAFER than the vaccine, like an ivermectin regiment or something. If I had stats, I would absolutely compare death rates of people infected with covid and treated with Ivermectin. and give that comparison a fair shake.

But just given what we have talked about, could you at least agree from a death rate perspective, it looks like the jab is safer than getting Covid (while still being quite dangerous?)

Zak says

If I had stats, I would absolutely compare death rates of people infected with covid and treated with Ivermectin. and give that comparison a fair shake.

Stats are there. Covid on it's own isn't deadly in all but a fraction of a percentage of the population. I get people being scared, but it's not rational based on stats. They're out there for you to look up. Don't expect others to do the work for you. They've been posted here probably close to 100 times. Covid isn't dangerous. So why inject something we know nothing about, even the creators long term? They're making a guess and this is indisputable.

Zak says

But just given what we have talked about, could you at least agree from a death rate perspective, it looks like the jab is safer than getting Covid (while still being quite dangerous?)

Nope.

You have to consider age.

The jab may well be safer for people over 80.

It's definitely not safer for anyone under 60. It's vastly more dangerous for almost everyone to get the jab.

Patrick says

It's definitely not safer for anyone under 60. It's vastly more dangerous for almost everyone to get the jab.

That's what I'm asking you.. Given the numbers I ran up above.. using the stats of what you think deaths are.. where do you see the breakdown?

When I run the numbers as above, it looks safer to get the jab. I'm not seeing where you see the break in numbers is.

There is almost no risk from Wuhan Flu to the young and healthy.

But there is considerable risk from the jab.

Patrick says

PeopleUnited says

Patrick says

I think about 200,00 actually died of the virus,

How many of those deaths could have been prevented by use of therapeutics such as Ivermectin and HCQ/zinc?

I'm guessing about half.

If treated early, I bet it's more like 80-90%

Yes, the stats for children show almost no effects from the virus, while there are some reported bad effects from the vaccine.

Zak says

When I run the numbers as above, it looks safer to get the jab. I'm not seeing where you see the break in numbers is.

The. Vaccine. Does. Not. Prevent. Infection.

So all people are doing is taking a risk for nothing, and they can still get sars-cov2-19. Maybe the vaccine is less likely to kill a person than sars-cov-19 is - but what does that matter, if the vaccine doesn't prevent a person from getting sars-cov2-19?

There is NO data, whatsoever, in any clinical literature to show that this vaccine is effective, at all. None that I've seen. Fill us in, if you know otherwise.

@Zak,

I finally found detailed enough data, from Great Britain. Link: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf

Table 5

and this is summary which I lifted from @DavidBCollum



It shows MORE statistically adjusted deaths in vaccinated people FROM CORONA. Since people are more likely to get vaccinated if they have health problems, this is not a completely clean comparison but it is as good as it gets.

Bd6r says

@Zak,

I finally found detailed enough data, from Great Britain. Link: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf

Table 5

and this is summary which I lifted from @DavidBCollum



It shows MORE statistically adjusted deaths in vaccinated people FROM CORONA. Since people are more likely to get vaccinated if they have health problems, this is not a completely clean comparison but it is as good as it gets.

Absolutely - also many with health conditions cannot get vaccinated because of those so that should smooth out in the other direction. Either way if the agent were effective your co-morbidities should not matter much since a true "vaxxine" protects you from infection thoroughly, so you should never get !covid! in the first place (aside from such mild symptoms that you won't have to go to the hospital). It DOES NOT WORK.

Bd6r says

It shows MORE statistically adjusted deaths in vaccinated people FROM CORONA. Since people are more likely to get vaccinated if they have health problems, this is not a completely clean comparison but it is as good as it gets.

Yeah, wow this is crazy.. !!!

If you look at the breakdown (table 5 pg 18/19), it shows it's worse for the over 50 crowd, and worse with 2 doses, and where the majority of the stat comes from! HOLY MOLY!

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf

richwicks says

The. Vaccine. Does. Not. Prevent. Infection.

One. Dimensional. Analysis. Makes. You. Ignorant.

See. Periods. Between. Words. Mean. Nothing. About. Your. Point.

You are correct that vaccines do not prevent infections. Seat belts don't prevent crashes either. Even smallpox vaccines don't prevent smallpox!

You are starting to learn about the world young padawan.. Keep your questions coming!

zzyzzx says

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

Fucking Republicans better go get jobs at Quiznos like Tucker said, if they don't start speaking up, fucking cowards.

How would you know if they are speaking up, since they are getting censored?

it would at least be on gab.com or fucking patriots.win or some other pro republican publication. but nothing man. these people are well off, they have connections, they should be able to pull some shit off. but they don't even try. Our own CA republicans here, they are too cowardly, it's pathetic, they just know how to be nice, they don't know how to be dangerous.