patrick.net

https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2024287

As a result of recent research, a new stochastic methodology of assessing causality was developed. Its application to instrumental measurements of temperature (T) and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) over the last seven decades provided evidence for a unidirectional, potentially causal link between T as the cause and [CO2] as the effect. Here, I refine and extend this methodology and apply it to both paleoclimatic proxy data and instrumental data of T and [CO2]. Several proxy series, extending over the Phanerozoic or parts of it, gradually improving in accuracy and temporal resolution up to the modern period of accurate records, are compiled, paired, and analyzed. The extensive analyses made converge to the single inference that change in temperature leads, and that in carbon dioxide concentration lags. This conclusion is valid for both proxy and instrumental data in all time scales and time spans. The time scales examined begin from annual and decadal for the modern period (instrumental data) and the last two millennia (proxy data), and reach one million years for the most sparse time series for the Phanerozoic. The type of causality appears to be unidirectional, T→[CO2], as in earlier studies. The time lags found depend on the time span and time scale and are of the same order of magnitude as the latter. These results contradict the conventional wisdom, according to which the temperature rise is caused by [CO2] increase.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/not-burning-monday-august-19-2024

Together, the Sun’s average solar maximum and the Earth’s perplexing loss of protective magnetic energy combined to create never-before-seen effects (like recurring southern auroras) on our planet.

Also remarkably absent from the story was any discussion of the paper’s usual favorite topic: the climate. How does all this extra solar energy affect global weather? WaPo doesn’t say, doesn’t care, and won’t guess. It won’t even ask the question.

There’s no money in sun-caused climate change.

https://www.eugyppius.com/p/german-state-media-broadcaster-develops

German state media broadcaster develops virtual reality game in which players shoot lasers at flying climate denialists, in perhaps the most eccentric effort to propagandise teenagers known to man

I swear that what follows is true and that I am not making it up.

Climatists at the German state media broadcaster Südwestrundfunk (SWR) have used the mandatory license fees they collect from all German households to produce an astounding virtual reality video game called GreenGuardiansVR. In this game, players shoot lasers at flying climate denialists to defeat disinformation and save the planet (h/t RatSays). This is literally true, this thing really exists. It will be released to the public sometime in the autumn; the Steam page is here. In the meantime, they’ve set up a whole stand to debut this lunacy at Gamescom, the Cologne video game trade fair.

Onvacation says

Out here in Cali every time it gets over 90 we get a heat advisory.

96ºF today (tomorrow at this time in CA) on the way here in IL. High humidity. Heat index supposed to be 110-115ºF. Turning the house into a refrigerator tonight. I look at it as an outdoor sauna though. Maybe do a 20 minute bike ride around town and break a good sweat and wet bulb myself. Then take a cold shower.

We're under an excessive heat warning. We have AC in the schools, but wouldn't be shocked if they cancelled it.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/phobic-monday-september-2-2024-c

I noticed another influencer post yesterday that signaled more good news in the climate wars. Ryan Maue, a PhD meteorologist and climate influencer (122K followers), tweeted a thread yesterday about the baffling lack of hurricanes so far this season...

You can imagine how excited I was when I saw his musings about the mysterious disappearance of hurricanes, considering Science widely predicted this would be the worst hurricane season in history, all thanks to carbon-fueled climate change. One famous Ivy League climate scientist predicted thirty-three named storms this year, which now would require a significant storm every two days for the rest of the eight-week season. But, behold:

@RyanMaue • 11h
What can cause all of this? The massive submarine
Hunga Tonga volcano in 2022 is the obvious culprit
for tampering with the Hadley Cell and ITCZ. But it
could also be some entirely new pattern we haven't
seen caused by a combination of solar activity and
unprecedented warming.

At last! Somebody finally mentioned the historic Hunga Tonga eruption, which C&C readers have known about for nearly two years now. And … solar activity! The ‘global warming’ narrative is falling apart. We’re making progress.

https://x.com/newstart_2024/status/1830711549431795875

https://x.com/JamesMelville/status/1831249005189198011

Patrick says

tweeted a thread yesterday about the baffling lack of hurricanes so far this season...

Good. I'll be in the Caribbean spring '25. They're notorious for not cleaning up after hurricanes. Hell NOLA still hasn't been fixed since Katrina where we'll be launching off from. My kids are gonna love the place.... lol. They'll get a big eye opener there.

Get to hit Belize for the first time. Been everywhere else on the stops for the cruise. I need my bi-annual solo trip out to Montana at some point. Summer '25 is Montana to Redwoods down to Sacramento for the flight out most likely. No hurricanes there... lol.

Climate ain't changing my plans, that's for sure.

So, maybe the ocean levels ain't rising after all. In the article the author tries to explain away the islands growing by saying it is extra sand. Sorry, that just cannot physically happen.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/lifestyle-buzz/researchers-stunned-after-analyzing-nearly-1-000-vanishing-islands-i-m-not-sure-we-really-knew-what-we-would-find/ar-BB1pUnui

Misc says

So, maybe the ocean levels ain't rising after all. In the article the author tries to explain away the islands growing by saying it is extra sand. Sorry, that just cannot physically happen.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/lifestyle-buzz/researchers-stunned-after-analyzing-nearly-1-000-vanishing-islands-i-m-not-sure-we-really-knew-what-we-would-find/ar-BB1pUnui

Extra sand from where?

https://metatron.substack.com/p/scientists-have-captured-earths-climate

Evidence that the planet has never been as cold as it has been in the last few million years (about the time that humans have been around), suggesting that there are other non-human factors that explain the significant variation in global temperatures, and it is inevitable that we should now expect to be in a period of rapid warming and probably grateful too given the size of the human population and the fact that mammals (of which we are one species) evolved and thrived at much higher temperatures than today.

RWSGFY says

Extra sand from where?

King tides. Happens at my condo too. I'm not saying they aren't full of shit but it happens.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/signs-monday-september-23-2024-c

Forbes ran a remarkable story a couple weeks ago, with the astonishing headline, “Northern Lights Forecast: Aurora May Be Visible In U.S. For Two Years, Scientists Say.” Two years!

The science part is that the May’s Solar Superstorm apparently stirred up Earth’s ionosphere, a thick upper layer of the atmosphere electrically charged by solar radiation. Who knew? Not only is it so stirred up it is producing persistent auroras in parts of the world where nobody’s ever seen them before, but it’s also heating up and moving the air in the upper atmosphere around. A lot.

The article stopped short of suggesting this could affect the weather somehow. I don’t blame them; they simply aren’t allowed to say that.

Patrick says

producing persistent auroras in parts of the world where nobody’s ever seen them before

I do not see them in Virginia. Is anyone else seeing them where they live?

Auroras are almost impossible to see in any area subject to light pollution. Shit has to be completely dark for you to actually see any of these evanescent features. Most of the really cool pics are done with long shutter cameras in remote locations.

SoTex says

RWSGFY says

Extra sand from where?

King tides. Happens at my condo too. I'm not saying they aren't full of shit but it happens.

But isn't it ultimately comes from the rivers and these are mostly dambed. There has been mucho crying about how coasts are eroding because of that.

Eric Holder says

SoTex says

RWSGFY says

Extra sand from where?

King tides. Happens at my condo too. I'm not saying they aren't full of shit but it happens.

But isn't it ultimately comes from the rivers and these are mostly dambed. There has been mucho crying about how coasts are eroding because of that.

Mine is in Maui and a lot of the sand doesn't look volcanic but maybe it is. Other parts are red or black and not typical sand like mine is. I'd assume it's all over the ocean floor. But for example in my case I can step out of my door and walk about 15 paces to our seawall and (1) take a small step over it onto a sandy beach or (2) fall 15-20ft and break my legs.

It varies from year to year, season to season, storm to storm.

I think overall it's going away though as they've banned seawall repairs now because they claim it causes erosion.

The Hawaiian islands are on a sort of flat shelf that drops off so probably not getting sand from below the shelf but what do I know.

On 2nd thought, I bet my sand is coming from crushed coral reefs. The tourists are helping greatly with this.

Sea levels cannot rise is the fact. 10# brought it up before and it 100% makes senses. Any added water evaporates or due to gravity and pressure it pushes it into the crust. The ocean is not a swimming pool with a liner. The ocean floor is porous. Gravity matters. Weight matters. Pressure matters.

Ad can probably attest to this, have the barrier islands in the panhandle changed? Not in my 35 years of memory visiting. Hawaii is most certainly erosion because of location. Nothing to do with sea level rising. It wasn't supposed to be there. The ocean will eventually take Hawaii. Nothing to do with climate change though. Volcanos. Not in our lifetimes, but when the volcanos become dormant, Hawaii is toast in 1-2k years. It will be underwater.

SoTex says

On 2nd thought, I bet my sand is coming from crushed coral reefs. The tourists are helping greatly with this.

Makes sense.

The church is having a field day with this current hurricane.