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It is clear that some politicians and media outlets have been promoting a "conflict-freezing" narrative, that bears a striking resemblance to the approach outlined in Russian doctrinal thought.
To delve into it, let's look at an actual professional analysis - the report formulated by The Center for Naval Analyses under the US government contract, which outlines Russian military strategy
In 2021, a team of analysts led by
@KofmanMichael
released a document called "Russian Military Strategy: Core Tenets and Operational Concepts". This paper explores the core tenets of Russian military strategy. The paper states that Russian military strategy reflects that Russia expects to be the militarily inferior party in a regional or large-scale war against a technologically superior adversary.
Of particular relevance to our discussion is this excerpt: "The overall task for Russian military strategy is to prevent an opponent from achieving a decisive outcome during the initial period of war, force them into a conflict of attrition, and inflict costs on their military and economic infrastructure such that they will seek war termination on acceptable terms."
While originally designed for scenarios against a larger adversary like NATO, the core tenet of this strategy applies to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The objective is to hinder Ukraine from achieving decisive outcomes, push Ukraine into attrition, and impose costs on their military and economic infrastructure, compelling them to seek war termination on terms favorable to Russia.
Now, let's step back and examine the strategic objectives of both countries:
- Russia aimed to replace the Ukrainian government, install a puppet regime, and gain control over Ukrainian territory. Failing to achieve these goals, Russia has had to adjust its objectives. Currently, the likelihood of achieving initial goals appears unrealistic.
- Ukraine's strategic goals focus on liberating all its territories and reverting to internationally recognized borders. While Russia struggles to achieve its strategic goals, it retains the ability to thwart Ukraine's strategic goals, evident in events during the counter-offensive in the summer and fall of 2023.
This understanding is crucial. Returning to the document, let's reiterate: "The goal is to prevent the adversary from achieving a decisive outcome, force them into a conflict of attrition, and inflict costs on their military and economic infrastructure such that they will seek war termination on acceptable terms."
In March 2019 at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, General Gerasimov acknowledged the "emergence of new spheres of confrontation in modern conflicts and methods of warfare increasingly shift towards the integrated application of political, economic, informational, and other nonmilitary measures, realized with reliance on military force."
Russian theorists perceive information warfare as a potent tool capable of disrupting an opponent's command and control, deceiving adversaries, fostering instability within enemy borders, and demoralizing both civilian populations and military forces to the extent that they lose the will to resist.
Let's shift our focus from this research paper once more
This approach is not novel. The strategy of using "frozen conflicts" as a military and political tool has been employed by Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The invasion of Moldova by Russian forces and the establishment of the so-called "Transnistria," which persists to this day in Moldova, serves as an example. Russia utilizes this entity to exert influence on Moldova and obstruct Eurointegration processes. This same strategy unfolded in Georgia and later in Ukraine.
When Ukraine opted not to engage with Russia in 2014 during the occupation of Crimea, the so-called "de-escalation" only led to a further invasion of Donetsk oblast by a group of russian operatives led by Girkin (Strelkov).
The Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015 did not yield results; instead, they were followed by a russian invasion of Ukraine. Adhering to this pattern, now more explicitly outlined in Russian military doctrine, there are no signs that Russia is inclined to abandon or alter this course.
Therefore, any calls for a "frozen conflict" merely play into the achievement of military and political goals outlined in Russian military thought and assist Russia in preparing for the next phase.
In conclusion, it's apt to quote renowned military theorist Carl von Clausewitz: "The aggressor is always peace-loving, he would prefer to take over our country unopposed."
The only one crying for a cease fire right now are the folks in DC.
Hamas started crying for it almost immediately, which fits the pattern to a tee. The
When MSM puts Ukraine in the blame barrel, you know it's time for the partition.
https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1723257442342150278
Not sure these images are real. Could be computer generated.
Whereas, Russia has gone bonkers in the last 2 months throwing tens of thousands into the meat grinder trying to take Adiivka.
It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat
Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm. The U.S. and its allies need a new strategy: containment.
... For two years, the Journal has resolutely promised that Russia would crumble under Ukrainians’ fierce courage, dissolve under international sanctions, implode due to a lengthy list of allegedly-fatal Putin health problems (six different types of cancer, and counting), wither under a penetrating and glorious Ukrainian Spring Counteroffensive, and be wrestled to the bargaining table, where the former communist empire would be forced to cough up all its annexed territories and the Crimean peninsula to boot.
But um, nope. None of that happened. Not even close. It’s more like the reverse opposite.
Joining Time and NBC, the Wall Street Journal expressed plain pessimism over Ukraine’s plunging prospects:
Putin does not feel any pressure to end the war or worry about his ability to sustain it more or less indefinitely. As winter approaches, the Russian army has mounted a limited ground offensive of its own and surely will expand missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, power plants, industrial sites and other critical infrastructure. ...
Oh. One more question. Since it’s now suddenly “magical thinking” to believe Ukraine can beat Russia, can we get our hundreds of billions of dollars back? Some of us knew it was magical thinking to start with and would like a refund.
Our special event in Ukraine is going so poorly that the very Director of the CIA, William Burns, paid a not-so-secret call on President Zelensky Wednesday. Usually, this sort of call from one polity to another is performed by diplomats. How many of you noticed that Mr. Burns is not a diplomat? Rather, he is the blob’s consigliere, the very guy you don’t want to show up at your door with a message. You might wake up tomorrow with a horse’s severed head under the sheets. Or maybe his message is, we’ve got a nice cozy villa for you down in sunny Tristan da Cunha….
That war is a lost cause, and the cause was extremely stupid in the first place. Do you even remember what it was? I’ll tell you: to prod Russia into destroying itself. Oh? But why? Because, you know . . . Russia (and Trump!). There is your blob logic. Cost us something like $150 billion, a large part of that distributed among Mr. Zelensky’s circle while he sacrificed a whole generation of his country’s young men to Russian artillery fire and leaves what’s left of his sad-ass land an economic basket-case.
Best ROI we have ever gotten out of our bloated military budget.
Russia would get absolutely smoked fighting a conventional battle against the US or NATO that has advanced airpower.
And Russia is stronger than it was two years ago.
Just laughable.
Russia has lost its top Generals, best armor, Crimean Navy bases, Helicopter squadrons.......not to mention all of Wagner and hundreds of thousands of human casualties. Even the most conservative Russian military casualty estimate is appallingly high.
Over 300,000 smart Russians fled the country before the war too.
Russia has half the population of the US and is shrinking fast
Russia can't keep up this level of loss for long.
Ukraine is heading for partition, every country is telling Zelensky to cash it in, and it's still "Ukraine is winning bigly! The Russians are defeated and don't know it!" Where is the Kool Aide coming from?
But above all, we spent $$$ that should have never been spent. Comparing it to other things that should also have never been spent is saying 'two wrongs makes a right'.
I’m happy to report that the Biden Sanctions Program is going great. Russia should be surrendering any day n… oh, wait. This week, Bloomberg ran a story headlined, “Russia’s Cash Inflow Gains Momentum as Oil Exports Recover.” Apparently Russia is on track to hit a $75 billion-dollar trade surplus this year, which Bloomberg characterized as a “flood of cash” into the heavily-sanctioned nation.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/heroic-officer-harper-saturday-november
I’m happy to report that the Biden Sanctions Program is going great. Russia should be surrendering any day n… oh, wait. This week, Bloomberg ran a story headlined, “Russia’s Cash Inflow Gains Momentum as Oil Exports Recover.” Apparently Russia is on track to hit a $75 billion-dollar trade surplus this year, which Bloomberg characterized as a “flood of cash” into the heavily-sanctioned nation.
"Ukraine is winning bigly! The Russians are defeated and don't know it!" Where is the Kool Aide coming from?
Russia can't keep up this level of loss for long.
Personally, I think it's entertaining to go back and read some of the 'Russia is losing' comments here and from the corporate media from around the world.
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