patrick.net

Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, analysts & officials have claimed that Putin will never back down; that he needs a facing-saving win (i.e. Ukrainian territory) to end his war. Events yesterday completely undermined that assumption.

Putin talked tough in his national address. He sounded like someone preparing for a big fight. But when faced with the difficult decision of trying to stop Wagner mercenaries with major force, he backed down.

He didn't escalate. He didn't need a face-saving off-ramp to declare victory. When facing the possibility of really losing to Wagner mercenaries coming into Moscow, he just capitulated.

Instead of doubling down with more force to crush the mutiny, Putin accepted humiliation instead. He was the rat trapped in the corner that so many Putinologists have told us to fear. But he didn't lash out & go crazy. He negotiated with a traitor.

The lesson for the war in Ukraine is clear. Putin is more likely to negotiate and end his war if he is losing on the battlefield. Those who have argued that Ukraine must not attack Crimea for fear of triggering escalation must now reevaluate that hypothesis.

The sooner Putin fears he is losing the war, the faster he will negotiate.

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1672930752785448961

Despite it lasting less than a day, the “Wagner uprising,” which grew out of this performance, is likely to deal a serious blow to Putin’s power. The mutiny has demonstrated the vulnerability at the core of Putin’s system of power. Prigozhin has just proven that it is possible to seize a city of millions in Russia without firing a single shot, and then move toward Moscow without meeting any resistance. This may suggest that many of Russia’s security officials and soldiers do not like their commanders, and will not risk their lives for them. The confrontation ending in stalemate has not changed anything in this respect.

For better or for worse, the rebellion didn’t last long enough to discover to what extent Prigozhin’s radical populist ideas are popular among Russia’s security services, which would have been evident from the number of military personnel defecting to the side of Wagner. In any case, Prigozhin has voiced his agenda, which will, in one form or another, circulate further in society.

Prigozhin’s insurrection is another link in a long process demonstrating the emperor has no clothes. Each such story almost literally “exposes” Putin: it strips him of one of his many “vestiges.”

The previous blow against Putin was in Russia’s Belgorod region, when relatively small military units crossed the border, seized populated areas, and then withdrew with impunity. This hurt Putin’s ability to say his “special operation” posed no threat to Russians.

The Russian army’s inability to solve large-scale combat tasks was demonstrated to the whole world, as the myth of the “world’s second army” and its leader collapsed with a bang. Putin’s reputation was first damaged in the early days of the war, when it became clear that he had been deceived about the state of affairs in Ukraine and that he was unable to filter out unreliable information — even as an experienced politician and a career intelligence officer.

Prigozhin, however, dealt the most crushing blow to Putin. It’s now clear that the president is unable to control “his” people, who at some point may become a threat to everyone else.

It’s clear that the Kremlin will try to get rid of the remnants of quasi-state structures like Wagner Group. However, the very existence of Prigozhin’s “march” on Moscow proved the inadequacy of Putin’s worldview, since he believed nothing of this sort was possible. Destroying private military companies, of course, will not fix that.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/25/prigozhin-s-coup-attempt-exposes-putin-s-vulnerability

Eric Holder says

"Putin talked tough in his national address. He sounded like someone preparing for a big fight. But when faced with the difficult decision of trying to stop Wagner mercenaries with major force, he backed down."

There is a lot of fantasy and wishful thinking in that analysis. Prigozhin did not have any military training and he was above his head in that position with Wagner. Finally Prigozhin had a treasonous meltdown. That is why he was allowed to leave Russia.

This incident does not change the fact that Ukraine is finished. The counteroffensive failed and Ukraine's losses are so high, they don't have an army anymore to keep fighting.

The_Deplorable says

Eric Holder says

"Putin talked tough in his national address. He sounded like someone preparing for a big fight. But when faced with the difficult decision of trying to stop Wagner mercenaries with major force, he backed down."

There is a lot of fantasy and wishful thinking in that analysis. Prigozhin did not have any military training and he was above his head in that position with Wagner. Finally Prigozhin had a treasonous meltdown. That is why he was allowed to leave Russia.

Wut? This makes even less sense: if the guy who started an open insurrection doesn't really have any military might there is even less reason to simply let him go and not hang him by the balls from the Kremlin wall to discourage any potential challengers to Pukin's rule.

Think about it: the guy who simply put his feet up Pelosi's desk is rotting in jail, but the guy who took 2 oblasts, marched his "40-mile long convoy" within 200 km of Moscow and shot down 7 aircraft along the way was simply let go with all charges dropped because "he didn't have any military training"? LOL

Say what you want about treatment of Jan 6 protestors, but as far as deterrence goes it's working as intended: no "conservative" would go anywhere near Capitol next time they think there is something funky about elections, let alone bring their birdshot-loaded "ultimate stoppers" with them. But what would a Red Army commander think of marching his armored division towards Kremlin next time he's unhappy? "If it works - I'll be the next ruler of the Empire, if it doesn't - I'll emigrate with a clean slate"?

The_Deplorable says

Ukraine is finished. The counteroffensive failed and Ukraine's losses are so high, they don't have an army anymore to keep fighting.

Juicy!

RWSGFY says

"if the guy who started an open insurrection doesn't really have any military might there is even less reason to simply let him go and not hang him by the balls from the Kremlin wall to discourage any potential challengers to Pukin's rule."

If this was an insurrection against Putin then it was a failed insurrection. <==== Read this again a couple of times to sink in.

In contrast, in 2020, the coup against the most popular president of The United States was a success and the United States ended up with a Globalist pedophile president with Alzheimers disease who shakes hands with the invisible man every day.

And when Americans protest against the coup they are imprisoned for years on drummed up charges.

Compared to the United States, Russia is light years ahead.

Did you notice in the videos of Wagner in captured cities a lot of draft age guys all around?
Interesting that they dodged Putin's draft to go in the army to die in Ukraine.
Russians don't like the idea, Putin drafted guys from other countries in the Russian Federation, while others left Russia to escape the draft.
Nobody except Putin believes in "the glory of mother Russia", and nobody wants to die for it.

clambo says

"Did you notice in the videos of Wagner in captured cities a lot of draft age guys all around?
Interesting that they dodged Putin's draft to go in the army to die in Ukraine."

Nonsense. The Wagner troops are not draftees. They are mercenaries - a lot of them from prison.

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/coup-coo/

“At exactly the point of the AFU’s weakest moment and near-collapse on the battlefield he chose to strike Russia in the back as if obviously driven by a hidden hand.”— Simplicius on Substack

You’d think that the hapless DC neocons, Antony Blinken and his boss, Victoria Nuland, plus the gang at Spook Central, would have learned a lesson about the diminishing returns of color revolutions: namely, that these bold pranks blow back… and not in a good way.

The New York Times informs us that US Intel was well aware weeks beforehand of the developing coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his personal army, the Wagner Group. Congressional leaders were briefed a day prior to its roll-out. Well, golly, can you suppose for a New York minute that Russia’s intel agency didn’t know all about it, too?

A vast array of explanations for this bizarre wartime vaudeville can be found in every corner of the Internet. I’ll go with this one: Prigozhin came to bethink himself a Napoleonic figure. Just as Bonaparte wowed revolution-weary France with his military exploits against her enemies, and seized leadership of the nation, Prigozhin’s mercenary army carried the brunt of the action in Ukraine this year, culminating in the heroic victory at Bakhmut. Priggy regarded the Russian Ministry of Defense as oafish, and by extension, his long-time friend and mentor, Vlad Putin, indecisive about it. The moment was ripe to seize power! As a recent US president might have said: he misoverestimated.

It looks like the neocons, the CIA, and Britain’s MI6 did, too, if they helped nudge the event to fruition with assurances and cash — say, some of that $6.2 billion the Pentagon happened to find recently via an “accounting error.” What better time to destabilize Russia than during Ukraine’s vaunted spring offensive (which, let’s face it, was not going too well)? In fact, Ukraine’s whole NATO-assisted project from the get-go looked like a bust. The Bakhmut “meat-grinder” was just the latest fiasco. But then, the irascible, disgruntled, and grandiose field marshal Priggy seemed like the perfect instrument to jazz things up for the demoralized West.

Pretty darn quick, on the road from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow, Priggy learned the hard way that he had no support in the government, the military, or among the Russian public. The coup fizzled before sundown the very day it started. Some say, any way you cut it, the result is Vlad Putin left looking weak and vulnerable. I don’t think so. His speech to the Russian people that day appeared, if anything, resolute. And the way he seemed to spit out the words “a stab in the back,” you couldn’t think he was play-acting. By evening, with the whole psychodrama concluded, the people of St. Petersburg crowded the quay along the Neva River and busted into patriotic song.

Let’s address one nagging question: why did Mr. Putin allow the Wagner Group private army to play the leading role countering the Ukraine offensive? Answer: because he was saving and building-up the regular Russian army to strength in the further event that NATO might finally jump into Ukraine with all its multi-national feet when all else fails. ...

From his latest photographs, it looks like Mr. Zelensky is in the terminal throes of a cocaine rapture, and his actions are consistent with that state of mind. He must know that he’s not long for this world. And our country, the USA, must know that this Ukraine gambit is another lost cause on our long march of military misadventures. And if the government of our country doesn’t know, the people surely do. Have you noticed, the yellow-and-blue flags are not flying anymore? Even the most hardcore anti-Trump Democrats seem to understand what pounding sand down a rat-hole means when it comes to the many billions of dollars squandered on this stupid project while our cities rot and a whole lot more goes south in our own ailing homeland.

Not to mention the parlous position of the American president himself, the spectral “Joe Biden,” skulking in his demon-haunted White House as evidence of his treasonous turpitudes mounts and mounts. Which leaves us to wonder whether our Intel Community may have stirred up the Russia coup as just another distraction from its own Biden-linked crimes against this nation.

This guy was born in Kiev, and has lived in Russia, and knows many people in the area. If you want the truth, worth a listen. Just be prepared for no propaganda, and him not taking any extremist sides, or supporting nationalism for any of these countries.

https://www.corbettreport.com/interview-1813-wtf-just-happened-in-russia-with-rolo-slavskiy/

Greeted like liberators indeed:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GXUja-fGpt0&pp=ygUVd2FnbmVyIGNoZWVyZWQgcm9zdG92

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EVAclzxIhKY&pp=ygUUd2FnbmVyIHJvc3RvdiBwZW9wbGU%3D

PS. We saw videos of Russians cheering Wagner and videos of Ukrainians cheering AFU but no videos of supposedly Nazi-opressed Ukrainians cheering on Red Army entering their villages. And now even Prig has admitted that the whole "Nazi opressing and shelling mythical Dumbass people" was a pile of horseshit (duh!). Hmmmm. "But you don't know THE WHOLE TRUTH, maaaaan!" All these videos must be CGI while Red Army simply doesn't film the warm welcome they are receiving everywhere they go. 🤡

So for the link I provided above, this guys starts giving a play-by-play of what happened around 30 minutes. I need to issue a formal apology to @RWSGFY @Eric Holder and @Bd6r. You guys were way more accurate about Russia's military state than I was.

NuttBoxer says

I need to issue a formal apology to RWSGFY Eric Holder and Bd6r. You guys were way more accurate about Russia's military state than I was.

Seriously? They aren't right about anything.

Listen to that link, then decide.

I don't think anybody knows exactly what is happening. You don't go from convoluted international Mandarin conspiracies to transparency in two days.

It is in the realm of creative speculation at this point.

It does seem to indicate that the idiocy and corruption of the West, populating our own governments and institutions with daft, incompetent perverts directed from drool bucket weirdos in Europe, is being displayed in full glory.

America is being puppeteered by indifferent psychopaths who regard themselves as immune and it IS a problem. Subscribe to your psychopath du jour at hazard.

The similarities with corruption in the US are very telling of government, and it's real role in our lives. Just like in the US, Russian government constantly screws over their people and doesn't give a fuck about loyalty to the people, only to the power structure. I realize, we have a lot more freedoms here than they do in Russia. But I think we'd all do well to examine the similarities and remember who the real enemy is.

Rolo Slavskiy? Like 'Rollo Tomasi' in 'LA Confidential'? The guy that always got away with it. Really? It's a calculated pseudonym, too glibly wrapped but in your face, like, "You're stupid, believe my assertion fallacies, please, I'm so much smarter than you. Look at my self described provenance statement".

He spends a lot of time saying he is not an intel asset disinformation agent while having all the symptoms of an intel asset disinformation agent. Guided missile pointed at Duran, McGregor, and the other pundits commenting on Russia and Ukraine? I would certainly take him with a huge grain of salt, and I like Corbett.

NuttBoxer says

So for the link I provided above, this guys starts giving a play-by-play of what happened around 30 minutes. I need to issue a formal apology to RWSGFY Eric Holder and Bd6r. You guys were way more accurate about Russia's military state than I was.

@Nuttboxer,

I had misfortune of having to spend some, not too long, time in Soviet Army at the end of 80's. Russian army traditions, including corruption and chaos, come from its Soviet past (all commanders were transferred from Soviet to Russian army). Also, knowing Russian helps a lot. Unfortunately, many Patnet Russia specialists have no working knowledge of Russian and still feel that they can lecture everyone about Ukraine/Russia.

I will listen to the link you provided above in evening. I can not wrap my head around this Wagner mutiny, especially the way how it ended. I have been reading Wagner telegram channels and they are full of cryptic messages that I can not decipher. For anyone curious, here are the links:

https://t.me/s/grey_zone
https://t.me/s/apwagner

Anti-Wagner, pro Russian army channel: https://t.me/s/rybar

Ones who say that downed Russian helicopters/aircraft are fake should read the above channel.

For those who like even more conspiracy theories:

Bd6r says

For those who like even more conspiracy theories:

Pictures have been meaningless since Photoshop.

Ceffer says

Rolo Slavskiy? Like 'Rollo Tomasi' in 'LA Confidential'?

Not sure if it's intentional, but wouldn't be surprised. I'll never share my real name with you, does that make me deep state? As with all Corbett material, if you're not satisfied with words(why should you be?), read the sources, always linked in the show notes, for yourself.

Putin is part of WEF, is the third person facing camera the conspiracy?

It seems these countries(Ukraine, Russia, and the US) are all grasping at the remaining shreds of their centralization era power, that is constantly draining away in the post-centralization world that is forming.

Between constant in-fighing, and growing awareness of the people that we are being enslaved, the enemies of government far outweigh it's friends. Their night is ending, and our day is coming.

NuttBoxer says

This is either US/NATO fighting Russia and Ukraine, or ethnic Russians in Ukraine being supported by Russia fighting US/NATO forces posing as Ukraine.

Or neither, as was revealed by Prig. He said it was a project to get Shoigu his big star aftere a "small victorious war" and olygarchs to loot Ukrainian assets (which they did in spades on the occupied territories). And so far this is the best evidence-supported version. Because nobody has provided any evidence of any non-Ukrainian forces being present in battle, the bullshit about "ethnic Russians bla-bla" has been debunked by the very guy who started the whole thing back in 2014 - the FSB colonel Igor Strelkov (Girkin), and Prig has outright called the whole notion of "NATO attacking poor defenseless USSR" a pile of smelly horseshit.

That guy's a paper dictator. He'd fly away in the first strong wind.

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1673359887005253638

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/media-meltdown-tuesday-june-27-2023?publication_id=463409&post_id=131401181&isFreemail=true

Finally, enjoy this clip of revolting disgrace John Kerry twisting in the wind after a French reporter pressed him to explain how Bush invading Iraq was any different than Putin invading Ukraine. The reporter insisted that the US invaded Iraq on a false premise — just like how Russia allegedly invaded Ukraine.

Kerry, face tragically frozen in a botox-induced Halloween mask, angrily stammered out that it was totally different when we did it! Because we were too stupid to realize we were invading Iraq over false pretenses. Somebody tricked us.

It’s a little hard to hear Kerry under the French translator’s voice over, but still. It is very satisfying.

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1673359887005253638

Fucker. He knew that WMD was a lie. They all knew it was a lie, and that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11. It was all the Saudis, and probably the CIA.

If anyone has the slightest doubt about 9/11 it's because you haven't taken the time, not because you can't know. I push Corbett for different things, but this one is his area of expertise. I have a thread on here about the latest in his 9/11 series that came out this past year. The sources as always are linked and plentiful. As Mulder always says, the truth is out there.

Imagery published on social media has confirmed that a Russian Air Force Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post platform was among several military aircraft shot down inside Russia in an apparent attempted coup by the Wagner Private Military Co.

Wagner-operated air defenses brought down the four-engine turboprop on June 24 near the city of Voronezh in southwestern Russia as the paramilitary group’s forces made an advance toward Moscow in what President Vladimir Putin described as an “internal betrayal” of the Russian people. All 10 crew on the Il-22 were killed.

Wagner forces also bought down several Mil Mil-8/17 transport helicopters, including: a specialized electronic warfare version; a Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopter; and a Mil Mi-35 attack helicopter being used to to stave off Wagner’s advance.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s owner, triggered the rebellion, aiming his ire at the head of the Russian military, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Prigozhin publicly blamed the two men for the conflict in Ukraine which has seen thousands of Wagner personnel killed. In a video published online on June 23, he said justification for the war in Ukraine was a lie, and just an excuse for "a small group of scumbags" to promote themselves and deceive both the public and Putin.

...

The loss of the Il-22M—a military conversion of the Il-18 airliner—represents a significant loss in the Russian Air Force’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance fleet. It is the second such loss in five years. Back in September 2018, an Il-20—an electronic intelligence version of the Il-18—was shot down accidentally by Syrian air defenses as it returned from a patrol flight over the Mediterranean Sea.

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/wagner-forces-shoot-down-russian-airborne-command-post

In conclusion: the mutiny was "mostly peaceful". =))

Eric Holder says

In conclusion: the mutiny was "mostly peaceful". =))

https://imgflip.com/i/7qsss3

as asked

How come Russia isn't crawling on its knees begging Ukraine for forgiveness, now? Any day, now, any day.

Ceffer says

How come Russia isn't crawling on its knees begging Ukraine for forgiveness, now? Any day, now, any day.

they won’t. they’ll leave 3 years from now when they run out of resources. history repeats itself.

Great summary on the mostly peaceful mutiny (with a bonus explanation why it wasn't a coup): https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-cCVVZSnU&pp=QAFIAQ%3D%3D

Patrick says

Fucker. He knew that WMD was a lie. They all knew it was a lie, and that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11. It was all the Saudis, and probably the CIA.

@Patrick: IF You want to really know what happened on 9/11:

This is part I:
https://rumble.com/v2m62j8-ryan-dawson-reveals-what-really-happened-on-911...what-the-mainstream-doesn.html

This is part II:
https://rumble.com/v2uhvs0-ryan-dawson-exposes-hidden-truth-about-911-part-2.html

I've shown this before, so I'm not going to bother to embed it. Despite the stupidity of the podcast he's on, basically he explains all the intelligence connections. Get a pen and paper.

It was Israel, Saudi Arabia, and US intelligence all in cooperation.

NuttBoxer says

If anyone has the slightest doubt about 9/11 it's because you haven't taken the time, not because you can't know. I push Corbett for different things, but this one is his area of expertise.

@NuttBoxer - you mean James Corbett of the Corbett report? He knows, but Ryan Dawson did a lot more work and knows more about it. I linked to two of his videos above. He covers it all the time.

Here's a short example of something Ryan Dawson did over a decade ago:


original link

Shake up any memories? 9/11 was definitely a false flag.

Prigozhin hates Shoigu because he tried to kill the Wagner troops in Ukraine when they wouldn't pay for ammo through various means, and bombed them when they returned to Russia. There's a lot of other aggression's, but suffice it to say Prigozhin took a lot of shit before pushing back. If they downed these aircraft, it's likely because they perceived them as a threat. Only reason Pirgozhin got as close to Moscow as he did is he has the support of Russian troops. He wouldn't get that if he was attacking them indiscriminately.

Great News!

Biden announces that "Putin is losing the war in Iraq"

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1674062124245549056