patrick.net

https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/the-doom-loop-161a42bbcd50?source=patrick.net

Why do the acolytes of Lord Satoshi preach the gospel with such passion? Because we know that in order to create circular self-sustaining pockets of economic action that use Bitcoin as the sole payment method, we must infect as many minds as possible with our memetic narrative.

This is especially important because of how successful Bitcoin has been from a price appreciation standpoint. The meteoric rise of Bitcoin from nothing to a $1 trillion dollar plus asset in the span of a decade created the HODL culture. HODLers will not sell their Bitcoin at any price. And these folks, myself included, spend fiat and save Bitcoin. Fiat depreciates in real terms year after year, while Bitcoin is the best performing asset EVER created.

However, Bitcoin– unlike gold– must be used to have value. Miners spend energy to maintain the Bitcoin network. To cover their costs, miners must receive payment in a token that is socially valuable. Bitcoin therefore must move, and movement between parties is the antithesis of HODL culture. HODL culture taken to its f(x): maxima would result in the complete destruction of Bitcoin. Once all bitcoin has been minted and miners no longer receive sufficient income from network rewards in the form of newly minted Bitcoin, they must rely on transaction fees instead. If no Bitcoin changes hands because we all sit smugly clutching our USB sticks, then there will be no hashpower supporting the network. No network … no value.

Therefore, as a loyal subject of Lord Satoshi, I must do my part to evangelise the good word, and hopefully they can influence their domestic policy makers to create a fertile environment that promotes a farm-to-table Bitcoin economy.

Patrick says

However, Bitcoin– unlike gold– must be used to have value

Sounds like a pump and dump scheme,

PeopleUnited says

Patrick says

However, Bitcoin– unlike gold– must be used to have value

Sounds like a pump and dump scheme,

Then stocks and cash would be a pump and dump scheme too.

The Bitcoin haters never really come up with a reason why Bitcoin is bad. They are simple unwilling to learn technology. Hence most of the Bitcoin haters still use landlines and flip phones.

Bitcoin says

a reason why Bitcoin is bad

Transaction speed is slow.

PeopleUnited says

Bitcoin says

a reason why Bitcoin is bad

Transaction speed is slow.

Its digital gold. Why do you need the transaction to be fast? You miss the intention. Maybe this chart helps:

notice how the chart doesnt have anything on transaction speed? cause it doesnt matter. I bought Bitcoin for 15k.....now its worth close to 40k.....i never transacted it once except when I moved it from the exchange to the cold storage (hardware wallet).

Bitcoin says

notice how the chart doesnt have anything on transaction speed? cause it doesnt matter. I bought Bitcoin for 15k.....now its worth close to 40k.....i never transacted it once except when I moved it from the exchange to the cold storage (hardware wallet).

Why don't you take some gains though? I say that to people who are sitting on large stock gains as well. Once you make a double sell 25% at the minimum, of course these numbers can be adapted to individual strategies but at least for stocks buy and hold is done and won't see return. I expect similar for bitcorn

mell says

but at least for stocks buy and hold is done and won't see return. I expect similar for bitcorn

Wait, you are saying for stocks, buying and holding long term is not a strategy anymore?
My strategy for stocks is dollar cost avg. basically buy into the dumps/falling knife.....but have a long term outlook, 2+ years

Patrick says

However, Bitcoin– unlike gold– must be used to have value.

Bitcoin says

Its digital gold. Why do you need the transaction to be fast?

You miss the criticism because you are a fanboy, transactions Are necessary per the article Patrick linked. It is just one of many problems with “digital gold”.

If people can’t make quick transactions in the digital age, then it is not the digital age. It is the Stone Age,

Bitcoin says

mell says

but at least for stocks buy and hold is done and won't see return. I expect similar for bitcorn

Wait, you are saying for stocks, buying and holding long term is not a strategy anymore?
My strategy for stocks is dollar cost avg. basically buy into the dumps/falling knife.....but have a long term outlook, 2+ years

Yes. You can buy into dips but only if you sell into runs to create "freeriding" shares to hold. You can't just indiscriminately buy dips, some stocks may never recover to previous levels or even go bk or get bought out in distress for pennies on the dollar. Look at tech and what a wreck it is. Big tech is done for many years. Buy and hold is not a good strategy, it was from 2009-2019 or maybe 2021 due to the fed money bazooka, but it's over, the fed is unwinding rather aggressively to combat inflation. For the next few years buy select stocks only and sell into rallies to create freerides. I doubt the market will be any better in 2+ years.

mell says

. Big tech is done for many years. Buy and hold is not a good strategy,

get your point. What about index funds? you are specifically talking about individual stocks but DCA, buy and hold for index funds. do you think that strategy wont work either?

PeopleUnited says

If people can’t make quick transactions in the digital age, then it is not the digital age. It is the Stone Age,

Could not disagree more. That mindset would lead to zero innovation.

You are like:
If you create a flip phone that doesnt allow you to take pictures and send email, its the stone age. So dont start and innovate
If your car doesnt drive by itself its the stone age. so dont start building a car and innovate.
If your tv wont allow you to connect to the internet its the stone age, dont start developing tv's.

Bitcoin was the first of its kind. it started a revolution. Now fortune 500 companies buy and hold Bitcoin. Not only that. Country after country adopts bitcoin as legal tender
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/central-african-republic-adopts-bitcoin-as-legal-tender.html?source=patrick.net

not only that. Now you can buy bitcoin and hold it in your retirement accounts. That means main stream adoption. We already have Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin is not meant to buy a coffee with it. some people sit on millions of bitcoin holdings. If they sell, they might buy multifamily complexes or lambos with it.
The transaction speed on Bitcoin is never mentioned because nobody cares. Transaction speed on layer 3 cryptos is signficantly faster. Blockchain tech is evolving day by day.

Bitcoin was layer one
Ethereum and similar cryptos were layer two
Now we have layer 3

maybe it takes layer 10 to have a crypto that could be used for buying a coffee. Who knows and who cares. Being part of this revolution is exciting and freaking profitable. I love the times we live in.

haters will laways make up stuff to why tech shouldnt be adopted. Remember when people said bad things about the internet or microwave? Or smart phones?

Bitcoin says

mell says

. Big tech is done for many years. Buy and hold is not a good strategy,

get your point. What about index funds? you are specifically talking about individual stocks but DCA, buy and hold for index funds. do you think that strategy wont work either?

Not an expert on index funds but I would assume anything Dow/defensive would work for a 2+ years strategy, i.e. energy, agriculture, defense, healthcare, precious metals. You can also buy aggressive growth index funds when nasdaq/tech is beaten down but that is probably a 5+ years strategy. Market will def stay volatile with lots of short term opportunities on both sides.

PeopleUnited says

Bitcoin says

a reason why Bitcoin is bad

Transaction speed is slow.

Clearly you need to go back and read the bitcoin is for stupids thread. All of it. Why haven't you done so yet?

Scalable, Instant Bitcoin/Blockchain Transactions:

https://lightning.network/?source=patrick.net

This is only layer-2.

PeopleUnited says

transactions Are necessary per the article Patrick linked.

Which is a FUD article. Adoption is happening (still) at a far rapid pace than the internet was. Once a billion people are reached (and probably well before) there will always be enough transactions to create the churn necessary to keep enough miners happy to secure the network. It does not take that much. We can drop it by 75% already and there will be no problems.

mell says

Why don't you take some gains though? I say that to people who are sitting on large stock gains as well. Once you make a double sell 25% at the minimum, of course these numbers can be adapted to individual strategies but at least for stocks buy and hold is done and won't see return. I expect similar for bitcorn

Bitcorn has become highly correlated with tech stocks and/or the strength of the dollar and dollar flow. Hopefully it decouples again although it may have always been correlated with quant easing etc., or at least leveraged by it.

I suspect it will still go down quite a bit this year(s) making for a great re-entry point eventually.

Its all about USD demand Cash is king above nearly all things investment wise.
Cash says

https://patrick.net/post/1344030?120#comment-1831934

See:

Just to be clear lots better deals for your investment pleasures on their way

FJB says

Clearly you need to go back and read the bitcoin is for stupids thread.

Bitcoin says

haters will laways make up stuff

Bitcoin says

You are like:
If you create a flip phone that doesnt allow you to take pictures and send email, its the stone age. So dont start and innovate
If your car doesnt drive by itself its the stone age. so dont start building a car and innovate.
If your tv wont allow you to connect to the internet its the stone age, dont start developing tv's.

As hominem and straw man. But that you need to ask yourself is this. Why can’t you accept that bitcorn is not for everyone and some people (perhaps the majority) think it is a scam?

PeopleUnited says

Why can’t you accept that bitcorn is not for everyone and some people (perhaps the majority) think it is a scam?

Why can't you accept that there is a bitcoin is for stupids thread and that you're posting in the wrong thread. This thread was setup specifically for posts other than yours yet you still continue do it.

What the hell is wrong with you?

Do you know what this indicates? Risk in JPY commodity paper shorts being removed
and perhaps commodities Super Cycle on it's way?
C&H or Inverted H&S take your pick.

Getting back to the topic of trading, bear flag possible here.

Ya think! Of course it is. A big giant one at that.

FJB says

FJB says

Whelp I was wrong. It's still a hellava bear flag though.

Ok, this was the correlation I was looking for, in terms of weekly candlesticks. Realize, the longer the time frame, the better the predictive ability.

1) The Russell finally closes a week outside of the long running price box


2) The EURO is testing a decade long low.



3) The Pound Sterling is just about to enter that same price box of the decade's low.




So the Bitcoin trade is over. I'm selling XBTF at 39 with a take profit of $4 per share, totaling 1200 shares. or $4.8K.

This will be re-visited at a latter time when the market structure is in a better place.

Congrats Rin. What are you buying now?

PeopleUnited says

Congrats Rin. What are you buying now?

I think at this time, it's all defensive plays.

One which looks promising is to buy shares of Carl Icahn Enterprises, IEP, which gets one a 15+% dividend check per year. In other words, with zero work, 1000 shares at $52 per share renders $8 per share or $8000 for any given year. And the price range is pretty stagnant.

Now, given the fact that Icahn could die or that one of his deals completely collapses (& he's forced to cut the dividend, along with the stock sliding downward), it's not a bad idea to insure against this by ordering leap put options at a strike price circa $45 where the put option price is close to a single dividend check loss for the option.

Then, if the stock goes to hell, the cap losses are offset by the option. So thus, you're in effect, paying one business quarter's dividend check (give or take) for insurance and get to bank the difference, some 11% per annum, with nearly zero risk of losing your capital.

Of course they could go out of business but I think the stock will tank first, so the exit is in place.

DooDahMan says

To manage these risks, if the price of Bitcoin drops by a large margin, the borrower might be required to increase the collateral submitted to the bank. Failure to do this risks the loan being liquidated.

I think the risk of intermittent margin calls may make this not the best way to originate loans for the borrower.

If anything, the bank should assume a certain percent of risk, if the collateral is a crypto currency. And then, to hedge against that risk factor, manage an array of futures contracts via the trading side of the house.

Article is about stocks but I get the point sort of. There is a fuck ton of leverage via margin in crypto. The thing is those volatility drops pretty much clear it all out each time. Don't be stupid and trade crypto on margin.

PeopleUnited says

Getting back to the topic of trading, bear flag possible here.

Exactly thats what I see as well, and DXY looks like it can fly... USD is getting the money flow atm. Once it flips we should
be entering the early stages of a commodities super cycle which crypto will be treated nearly the same. Have to wait and see how
things roll agriculture has already enter that door. The inflation we are seeing is referred to as cost push I believe. Once DXY hits critical
mass and flips then things will likely become way more expensive then most really anticipate. Just think your USD has a index value of
103.485 and possibly add another 9 pts 112.300 maybe more that is strength not weakness like so many seem to think the case is, but it's
not weak by the #s..

Patrick, thats exactly the reason why Crypto is so powerful. The government cant touch it.

https://finbold.com/canadian-police-block-over-30-crypto-wallets-associated-with-the-freedom-convoy-truckers/?source=patrick.net

"However, while the authorities are keen to seize any funds associated with the Freedom Convoy, it is likely that this digital currency is outside the grasp of the government of Canada, assuming the funds are housed outside of an authorized Canadian cryptocurrency exchange."

The headline you posted can obviously be misleading because "crackdown" simply means the government can only force REGULATED EXCHANGES IN CANADA to do what the government wants. You can still send crypto to those addresses. You simply would have to do it via exchange or app thats not controlled by the canadian government.

Governments can freeze bank accounts. They cant freeze crypto addresses. Thats the power of crypto!

How do you get cash out of Bitcoin then?

Patrick says

How do you get cash out of Bitcoin then?

If you have a frozen bank account you cant transact against it
If you have a bitcoin address that is flagged by your local exchanges due to government targeting your address, then you have these options:

Its likely that the government will be tracking any movements on those wallet addresses. So simply moving the crypto from the flagged addresses to new addresses and from there to your local regulated exchanges wont work because they can easily track this.

What you could do is move the crypto to a non-regulated exchange. from there you wont be able to cash out in your country because non-regulated exchanges cannot do crypto to local currency trades. However, you can trade the crypto against a privacy coin on that non-regulated exchange. The privacy coin is much harder to track or even impossible. You can then trade back to say ETH or whatever and move that from a non-flagged address to your regulated exchange.

Or you could buy large ticket items from a privat seller. Buy a car with bitcoin, etc. Question is if the seller accepts that. He might get in trouble if he cashes out and they find out the BTC originated from a flagged address.

Or open up an exchange overseas and cash out to their local currency. I doubt certain countries care about the Canadian Government flagging your address.

I feel the pain of the guys who loaded up on BTC at $69,000.
"Why did it go down?"
Who knows?
"Why did it go up?"
Nobody knows.
"What exactly is it?"
"You're too lazy to learn about it!"

Rin says

Keeping an eye on the Rus2K "holding its ground", as a barometer for the general market meltdown (or not), it's time for bitcoin to either go big or go home.

As predicted, the Rus2K broke down & bitcoin went home.

I got +$4/share, getting out in the week between the Rus price breakdown and bitcoin's.

Cuban is wrong on multiple levels.

I haven't seen anyone post about Terra yet. The loss of the peg is a pretty big deal and affected the other cryptos.

@DooDahMan
Do you have to post all of every fuxxking article you glance at? Please learn to paraphrase a bit of the article, share "your own thoughts if you actually have any" and then share the link like 99.9% of the other Patnet'rs do.