patrick.net

If your favorite coffee comes from Colombia, you might want to stock up.

There's a huge spat going on between Trump, and the Colombian President Gustavo Petro. Over deportation.

"Trump said he would put an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in a week. Oil, gold, coffee and flowers top the list of exports, according to Colombia’s tax authorities."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-slaps-tariffs-sanctions-colombia-193311606.html

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12 month inflation according to PCE is only 2.4%

As far the the above post #1556, I agree as that should increase the price of non Colombian coffee more people buy it to avoid paying the 25% tariff on Colombian coffee

maybe that means they lower the price of Colombian coffee to counter the 25% tariff, and the equilibrium price is only 12.5% above the pre-tariff price

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https://graymirror.substack.com/p/the-pleasure-of-error

someone just noticed that if you could hold a McChicken sandwich without any asset depreciation, McChicken would have beaten the SPX over the last five years

the Fed Funds rate is 4.5% with the Federal Reserve benchmark for annual inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditure) at 2.4%
banks are borrowing at 4.5% and then turning around and charging the prime rate of 7.5%

banks are also paying around 4.5% for 1 year CD's

that is why the 10 Year Treasury is at 4.5%, and its more expensive for the federal government to borrow money, because no one is going to buy a 10 Year Treasury at 3.5% (still beats annual inflation of 2.4%) when they can buy 1 year CD's at 4.5%

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paid 50 cents a pound for bananas at Walmart Front Beach Rd this weekend, whereas it was 68 cents a pound about 2 years ago

chicken legs are still about $1.29 a pound and the same price as 2 years ago (granted it is not imported)

dollar is getting strong

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https://rudy.substack.com/p/the-corruption-of-money

“Take nominal GDP less inflation - that gives you real GDP. So if inflation is being understated, as a lot of us think, that means that real growth is being overstated. Let's just say the economy is growing at 6% nominal, which includes inflation, and inflation's really four and a half percent - then you know the real GDP is only about one and a half percent. It's not that great, not that far above inflation, and I think that's why a lot of people - they look at these reports of how buoyant the U.S. economy is, and they go, ‘well, not for me.’”

David Hay

Wow, Kamala sure looks a little "chimpy" in that hat.

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12 month CPI seems "massaged" coinciding with Harris announcement to run for President

Jul 2024: 2.9%
Aug 2024: 2.5%
Sept 2024: 2.4%
Oct 2024: 2.6%

Dec 2024: 2.9%

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OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

This is down the street from us in Panama City Beach, and is around $18 for a hardy breakfast of steak, 2 eggs, coffee, etc
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Patrick says

https://billricejr.substack.com/p/mcflation

In 2014 the hourly wage for a crew member in Panama City Beach at McDonalds was around $9

Now they are paying around $16 an hour for a crew member

There has been a lot of pressure (even outside of California) to pay more for fast food crew members

Also remember up to 2014 there was the $5 foot long Subway sandwich ? how much is it now ? a Subway footlong meatball sandwich was $5 now it is around $9.50 in Panama City Beach

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AD says

Also remember up to 2014 there was the $5 foot long Subway sandwich ? how much is it now ? a Subway footlong meatball sandwich was $5 now it is around $9.50 in Panama City Beach

Same here in Virginia.

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Will see if this leads to disinflation (lower inflation) or deflation, or worse with stagflation

*******************

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/walmarts-stock-dives-as-disappointing-outlook-offsets-an-earnings-beat-3215a1e8

Shares of Walmart Inc. were hit hard Thursday after the retail behemoth provided a disappointing earnings outlook, including a warning for the first year-over-year decline in quarterly profit in three years.

“The company’s guidance assumes a generally stable consumer and continued pressure from its mix of products and formats globally,” Walmart said in a statement.

The downbeat guidance offset beats in profit, sales and same-store sales for the fiscal fourth quarter through January, and a 13% hike to the company’s dividend.

The stock
WMT

-6.30%
dropped 6.6% in morning trading. The selloff, which comes four days after the stock closed at a record high, put the stock on track to have its worst day since it lost 8.1% on Nov. 16, 2023.

The weakness was also weighing on shares of some of Walmart’s rivals, as Costco Wholesale Corp.’s stock
COST

-2.40%
fell 2.2% and Target Corp. shares
TGT

-1.83%
shed 1.1%, to underperform the S&P 500 index’s
SPX

-0.70%
0.8% decline.

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed headline sentiment extended its early-month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January to a reading of 64.7. Pessimism over the inflation outlook drove February's final read lower as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.3% from 3.3% last month.

While this was on par with February's preliminary read, it marked the highest reading for inflation expectations since November 2023. It also marked two consecutive months of "unusually large" increases, according to the release.

Just remember boys and girls - the price of gold is a leading indicator of inflation. Gold is way up in the last few months, so hang on, it'll be a wildly inflationary ride this year.

Eric Holder says

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed headline sentiment extended its early-month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January to a reading of 64.7. Pessimism over the inflation outlook drove February's final read lower as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.3% from 3.3% last month.

Welcome to the Biden Recession

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AD says

Welcome to the Biden Recession

New data released earlier on Friday showed that economic output tumbled in February to its lowest overall reading in 17 months. A drop in services sector activity drove the decline. S&P Global Services PMI fell to 49.7 in February, from 52.9 in January, a 25-month low.

All three major indexes were trading in the red Friday afternoon.

“The upbeat mood seen among US businesses at the start of the year has evaporated, replaced with a darkening picture of heightened uncertainty, stalling business activity and rising prices," S&P Global Market Intelligence chief economist Chris Williamson said in the release. "Companies report widespread concerns about the impact of federal government policies, ranging from spending cuts to tariffs and geopolitical developments.

"

AD says

Eric Holder says

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed headline sentiment extended its early-month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January to a reading of 64.7. Pessimism over the inflation outlook drove February's final read lower as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.3% from 3.3% last month.

Welcome to the Biden Recession

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Makes no sense: the indicators are for expectations and the only thing expected from Potato at this point is another soiled diaper.

RWSGFY says

Makes no sense: the indicators are for expectations and the only thing expected from Potato at this point is another soiled diaper.

Potato Head Biden's administration created the conditions to lead to economic slowdown for at least the next 6 to 12 months.

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Gas is up because demon rats killed all chickens.

“I will immediately bring prices down starting on Day 1” -- DJT on Aug. 15, 2024

“Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down.”-- DJT on Aug. 17, 2024

“Inflation is back....I’m only here for two and a half weeks ... I had nothing to do with it.” -- DJT on Feb 25, 2025