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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12

By AmericanKulak follow AmericanKulak   2022 Apr 12, 12:49am 2,682 views  121 comments           share      

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:
https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

Comments 1 - 40 of 121   Next »    Last »

1   Ceffer   2022 Apr 12, 1:01am  

The Putin stuff is pathetic desperation. What happens when political sociopaths run out of lies and imagination? They try to put tread on the old worn out lies.
2   DooDahMan   2022 Apr 12, 1:08am  

March’s Inflation Report Is Coming, and It Won’t Be Pretty. Expect a 1.1% Jump.

Economists expect consumer prices climbed a stunning 1.1% in March as the Russia-Ukraine war drove up the cost of oil and commodities and exacerbated supply chain slowdowns that have for months been contributing to inflation.

The latest reading, which will be released Tuesday morning, will add to mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to move faster to rein in spiraling inflation, potentially by raising interest rates by a half-point when central bank officials meet next month.

Economists are forecasting the consumer-price index rose at an 8.4% annual rate in March, up from 7.9% in February and the fastest pace since 1982. That will mark the seventh straight month of increases in the annual rate.

Consensus expectations are for the month-over-month rate to have accelerated from 0.8% in February to just over 1% in March, as the war picked up steam and the U.S. banned imports of Russian oil and gas.

So-called core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy indexes, is expected to have climbed 0.5% over the month, matching the previous month’s pace. The core CPI is expected to be up 6.5% in March from a year ago, marking a slight uptick from February’s 6.4% pace.

Any reading at or above consensus expectations will mark the fifth straight month of prices rising at the fastest annual pace in 40 years.

The data will likely only push Americans’ inflation expectations for the coming year ever higher, a phenomenon that concerns economists because heightened expectations can affect consumer behavior in a way that in turn pushes up actual inflation. Median one-year inflation expectations rose again in March to a series high of 6.6%, according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which was released Monday.

The Labor Department will release March data at 8:30 a.m. Please check back for more news and analysis.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-cpi-federal-reserve-51649715148?source=patrick.net
3   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Apr 12, 4:25am  

They're ripping off my Putin assassinates thread!
4   DooDahMan   2022 Apr 12, 5:11am  

US inflation expected to have topped 8% in March - Forecasts bolster expectations Federal Reserve will take more aggressive action to curb surging prices

US consumer price growth is expected to have surpassed 8 per cent in March following a surge in energy and food prices following Russia’s war on Ukraine, bolstering expectations the Federal Reserve will take more aggressive action to curb the highest inflation in 40 years.

The consumer price index is forecast to have risen 8.4 per cent last month compared with March 2021, a pace last seen in January 1982, according to consensus forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

The monthly rise is estimated at 1.2 per cent, the fastest jump since September 2005 and a sharp acceleration from the 0.8 per cent rise registered in February.

After volatile items such as food and energy are stripped out, “core” CPI is expected to have advanced 0.5 per cent in March. That is in line with February’s increase, but is set to push up the annual pace to 6.6 per cent.

The data, to be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30am Eastern Time, reflect the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has led to whipsawing prices for food and energy.

The Biden administration on Monday blamed the expected surge in prices on the war, with White House press secretary Jen Psaki saying the CPI reading was expected to be “extraordinarily elevated due to Putin’s price hike”.

Psaki noted petrol prices are up on average more than 80 cents a gallon since the invasion, which she said would drive the bulk of the increase.

Inflation expectations have in turn risen, with a new monthly survey released by the New York branch of the Federal Reserve on Monday showing that US households are bracing for much more acute price pressures.

Over the next year, consumers anticipate inflation hitting 6.6. per cent, a 0.6 percentage point rise from the previous period. Expectations for the three-year outlook declined marginally but still remain elevated at 3.7 per cent.

Concerns that inflation will become even more deeply entrenched in the world’s largest economy have prompted the US central bank in recent weeks to assume a more aggressive approach to tightening monetary policy.

The Fed is now poised to raise interest rates by half a percentage point at its next policy meeting in May, double the pace of its March rate rise, as it seeks to lift its benchmark policy rate to a more “neutral” level that neither aids nor constrains growth by the end of the year.

Officials forecast that rate to be 2.4 per cent, implying at least one more half-point adjustment in addition to four more quarter-point rate rises in 2022.

The central bank is also set to begin shrinking its $9tn balance sheet next month, building up to as much as $95bn a month over roughly three months beginning in May.

https://www.ft.com/content/b075001b-5cab-4641-a483-f3e470953166?msclkid=f4ea8b7aba5811ecb5dafff6a820c292&source=patrick.net

https://worldnewsera.com/news/finance/us-inflation-expected-to-have-topped-8-in-march/?msclkid=f4eaba01ba5811ecb2d6244162b8660d&source=patrick.net
5   clambo   2022 Apr 12, 7:06am  

The government caused inflation by giving money away.
The “earned income credit” is free money for having a kid in your household.
I believe it’s been increased from $3500 per kid.
You also get the credit if you earn less than $21,000 ($1500)
57% of people pay no income tax so they are going to spend the money on something.
I’m sick to my stomach every April; the government is giving away trillions of dollars and it sells IOUs (borrows money) to do it.
I’m more concerned about taxes on our life savings than inflation.
6   Patrick   2022 Apr 12, 10:00am  

clambo says
The government caused inflation by giving money away.


Bingo.
7   AmericanKulak   2022 Apr 12, 11:22am  

America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net
8   Goran_K   2022 Apr 12, 11:40am  

Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.
9   AmericanKulak   2022 Apr 12, 11:44am  

YAMS!!! Seriously, Potatoes and Tomatoes and Bunching Onions. 60lb of Rice. Two cans of meat per week for 4 weeks so far. 5lb of Coffee and Sugar. Six cans of Evap Milk, one box of dry milk. Looking for reasonable powdered butter, but the prices are insane. My .45LC derringer from Bond Arms with one round of Snake and one round of .410 defense load at all times. Snake shot is also bird shot if needs be, pigeon pie or just load with .410 birdshot. Don't know how to fish but I can build a weir because I went hunting for tropical fish in Paraguay a few times rather than buy at the pet shop because I'm a cheap asshole and it was fun.

I drive during the day and clean other delivery trucks to Midnight. Slogging 50 hours a week.

Next up: .22 Rifle, sold my old one a decade ago when I moved overseas. Eventually a 9mm carbine and lots of 9mm, or, the enemy will be the quartermaster.
10   zzyzzx   2022 Apr 12, 11:47am  

Goran_K says
How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


Ammo and yams!
11   clambo   2022 Apr 12, 12:05pm  

We’re back to the 70’s.

Jimmy Carter=kook
Biden=senile

Brezhnev=invades Afghanistan
Putin=invades Ukraine

1970’s high gasoline prices, high inflation
2021 high gasoline prices, high inflation

1970s fear of global cooling causing S Hemisphere crop failures
2021 fear of global warming doing something?

1970s snow storms on the east coast
2021 snow storms on the east coast

1970 geezers escaping to Florida
2021 geezers escaping to Florida

1980 voter reaction=threw some bums out
2022 voter reaction=fraud by mail? Throw the bums out? Fingers crossed.
12   Patrick   2022 Apr 12, 12:34pm  

Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


@Goran_K some ideas:

gold
TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities) - doesn't really cover inflation, but better than most bonds
certain stocks that take a percentage of transactions, like Visa (V)
non-perishable commodities like alcohol
ammo

I've been collecting a few bicycles, because they hold value in good times, and rise when in value when supply chains break. Not that that is any significant store of money.

Used cars would probably work too. Their value has surged lately.

Getting your money back out of things like alcohol and ammo can be hard if you end up with way more than you need.
13   Hircus   2022 Apr 12, 1:53pm  

Series I Savings Bonds currently pay about 7.1%

I heard someone say they think it will go over 9.6% when the new price comes out for May issuances.

A guaranteed 9.6% is not shabby. Too bad there's a 10k per year purchase limit.
14   Goran_K   2022 Apr 12, 2:44pm  

Patrick says
Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


@Goran_K some ideas:

gold
TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities) - doesn't really cover inflation, but better than most bonds
certain stocks that take a percentage of transactions, like Visa (V)
non-perishable commodities like alcohol
ammo

I've been collecting a few bicycles, because they hold value in good times, and rise when in value when supply chains break. Not that that is any significant store of money.

Used cars would probably work too. Their value has surged lately.

Getting your money back out of things like alcohol and ammo can be hard if you end up with way more than you need.


I'll take a look at TIPS.

I literally have over 200,000 rounds of ammo (various calibers). I am also thinking of buying more precious metals.
15   Goran_K   2022 Apr 12, 2:44pm  

Hircus says
Series I Savings Bonds currently pay about 7.1%

I heard someone say they think it will go over 9.6% when the new price comes out for May issuances.

A guaranteed 9.6% is not shabby. Too bad there's a 10k per year purchase limit.


That's pretty crazy. You can buy them online too!
16   Eman   2022 Apr 12, 3:43pm  

Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


If a billionaire came to you and said “invest in my company, and I’ll pay you 15% yield annually.” What would you say?

Carl Icahn owns more than 90% of IEP. The stock is around $53, and it pays $8/year in dividend.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but rather than dropping $100k to pay for the Model X, I used the money to buy the stock. Use the dividends to make car payments. Once the car is paid off, “hopefully” the stock still holds its value.

Not financial advice of course. 🤑
17   Goran_K   2022 Apr 12, 4:36pm  

Eman says
Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


If a billionaire came to you and said “invest in my company, and I’ll pay you 15% yield annually.” What would you say?

Carl Icahn owns more than 90% of IEP. The stock is around $53, and it pays $8/year in dividend.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but rather than dropping $100k to pay for the Model X, I used the money to buy the stock. Use the dividends to make car payments. Once the car is paid off, “hopefully” the stock still holds its value.

Not financial advice of course. 🤑


Sound logic. Can’t argue against it.
18   rocketjoe79   2022 Apr 12, 7:47pm  

Goran_K says
Eman says
Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


If a billionaire came to you and said “invest in my company, and I’ll pay you 15% yield annually.” What would you say?

Carl Icahn owns more than 90% of IEP. The stock is around $53, and it pays $8/year in dividend.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but rather than dropping $100k to pay for the Model X, I used the money to buy the stock. Use the dividends to make car payments. Once the car is paid off, “hopefully” the stock still holds its value.

Not financial advice of course. 🤑


Sound logic. Can’t argue against it.


From the Tesla Website: https://ir.tesla.com/contact-us?source=patrick.net#accordion-1-does-tesla-pay-a-dividend-does-it-plan-to
Tesla has never declared dividends on our common stock. We intend on retaining all future earnings to finance future growth and therefore, do not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future.

I did a similar thing. Bought Tesla Stock, it went 5x, sold 80%, reinvested this in my portfolio. Using the increase to pay for my Model Y.
In hindsight I should never have sold, but the stock was overweight in my portfolio.
20   Patrick   2022 Apr 13, 9:45am  


Cameron Winklevoss
@cameron
Apr 12
Inflation broken down by month/"reason":

2021
Oct = 6.2% "transitory"
Nov = 6.8% "greedy corporations"
Dec = 7.0% "supply-chain bottlenecks"

2022
Jan = 7.5% "supply-chain bottlenecks"
Feb = 7.9% "oil prices"
Mar = 8.5% "Putin price hike"

What will they blame next?
23   DooDahMan   2022 Apr 27, 11:07am  

The analysis of Securities and Exchange Commission filings for 100 US corporations found net profits up by a median of 49%, and in one case by as much as 111,000%. Those increases came as companies saddled customers with higher prices and all but ten executed massive stock buyback programs or bumped dividends to enrich investors.

In earnings calls, executives detailed how even as demand and profits rose post-vaccine, they passed on most or all inflationary costs to customers via price increases, and some took the opportunity to add more on top. Margins – the share of sales converted into profits – also improved for the majority of the companies analyzed by the Guardian.

Economists who reviewed the data say it’s more evidence of a clear reality: Consumers are taking a financial hit as companies and shareholders profit or are largely shielded.

The data is not intended to be definitive, but does show how a wide sample of companies have raised prices even as profits jumped. In earnings call after earnings call, executives made no secret of their strategies.

As gas prices soared, Chevron’s 240% profit spike was part of “the best two quarters the company has ever seen”, prompting a dividend increase and assurances it would keep production low to maintain high prices

Steel Dynamics profits increased 809%. The company was “not materially affected by inflation” as higher prices “exceeded” increased supply chain costs.

Fertilizer giant Nutrien’s profits shot up by about $1.2bn on “higher selling prices [that] more than offset higher raw material costs and lower sales volume”.

Nike’s 53% profit increase driven by higher prices was only “partially offset” by supply chain and inflationary cost increases.

Keurig-Dr Pepper’s “significant pricing actions” and productivity outpaced inflationary costs, leading to an 83% profit jump.

The analysis found commodity companies trading in oil, timber, rubber, meat, wheat, steel and mining recorded the highest profit increases, while restaurants and retailers saw comparatively lower improvements, or losses. Commodity price spikes reverberate down the supply chain, eventually hitting consumers, noted Martin Schmalz, an Oxford University economist.

Financial observers have varying takes on whether companies are “profiteering” or “price gouging”, or simply profiting. George Pearkes, an analyst at Bespoke Investment, pointed to Caterpillar, which recorded a 958% profit increase driven by volume growth and price realization between 2019 and 2021’s fourth quarters. Eliminating price increases may have dropped the company’s 2021 quarter four operating profits slightly below the $1.3bn it made in 2020.

“This isn’t price gouging … and it shows pretty concretely that there’s a lot of nuance here,” Pearkes said, adding profiteering is “not the primary driver of inflation, nor the primary driver of corporate profits”. However, he added that it’s reasonable to question whether Caterpillar should have passed on its cost increases.

The company also spent $5bn on buybacks last year, and $1.3bn for a quarter of profits is still high, Brown noted, especially in the context of inflation eating into workers’ wage gains.

More here - kind of long article: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/27/inflation-corporate-america-increased-prices-profits?source=patrick.net
24   ad   2022 Apr 27, 11:24am  

And companies like this advertising on Facebook to entice people to buy a vacation rental property.

Maybe this is showing we are at the peak of the housing and asset bubble when there are advertisements like this.


25   EBGuy   2022 Apr 27, 2:21pm  

Note about I-bond timing. If you believe the US will go into a inflationary spiral forever, or if you'll need the bond money before rates fall, then wait until next month to get the higher rate. Otherwise, buy right now (before May 1) as you'll get a good rate (7.12% annualized), and then an even higher rate October 1 when the six month window resets the rate (as March CPI numbers show the rate will rise for the six month window of May 1 to Oct. 31).
26   ad   2022 Apr 27, 8:05pm  

DooDahMan says
The analysis of Securities and Exchange Commission filings for 100 US corporations found net profits up by a median of 49%,


Tyson Foods was $92 a share in January 2020. Now it is about $94 but its valuation (P/E) is extremely low.

.
28   ad   2022 Apr 28, 9:45am  

Economy shrank by 1.4% during first quarter of 2022.

I expect it will shrink the second quarter given many factors like Russia's war in Ukraine and skyhigh gas prices.

.
29   Patrick   2022 Apr 28, 8:39pm  

https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/the-doom-loop-161a42bbcd50?source=patrick.net


The Federal government will soon pay more in interest on its debt than it receives in tax receipts if it’s forced to pay an interest rate that is much higher than today’s. That is the start of an insolvency doom loop. The obvious solution is to redirect the Fed off of its inflation-fighting path towards one of accommodation once more. Accommodation will come in the form of explicit price fixing of the Treasury curve, which is euphemistically called Yield Curve Control (YCC).
30   Misc   2022 Apr 29, 11:08am  

However bad you think we have it in the States, Europe is worse, China's economy isn't there, and people are giggling at Japan.
32   mell   2022 Apr 29, 9:09pm  

Misc says

However bad you think we have it in the States, Europe is worse, China's economy isn't there, and people are giggling at Japan.


Europe is continuing zirp/qe and thus the dollar has gotten stronger again and the Euro crashed. It's maybe somewhat worse over there, not by much though. You have more opportunities here to react to changes and make money from it as the US economy is still freer than Europe's, but the wealth gap is bigger here.
33   Misc   2022 May 1, 3:43am  

mell says

Misc says

However bad you think we have it in the States, Europe is worse, China's economy isn't there, and people are giggling at Japan.


Europe is continuing zirp/qe and thus the dollar has gotten stronger again and the Euro crashed. It's maybe somewhat worse over there, not by much though. You have more opportunities here to react to changes and make money from it as the US economy is still freer than Europe's, but the wealth gap is bigger here.


Just over 20% of the population are retired in Europe,

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Ageing_Europe-_statistics_on_working_and_moving_into_retirement&source=patrick.net

For Western European nations the percentage of those on disability for those working age runs in the mid-20%'es.

About 25% of their economies are welfare spending. Yes includes the huge numbers of muslim immigrants. https://fullfact.org/europe/does-europe-account-half-worlds-welfare-spending/?source=patrick.net

The percentage of the populous working for the government runs about 18%.

About 15% of the population is under 18. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_structure_and_ageing&source=patrick.net

When you factor in those in university and those in labor unions. There just ain't that many doing any real work.

In France (pre-Covid) the taxes on the working French were running about 70% and the government was going to increase taxes even more (hence the yellow jacket revolts).

There is no European economy, it is all fake, people are just going through the motions. --- They will QE until they implode,
34   mell   2022 May 1, 9:12am  

Misc says
There is no European economy, it is all fake, people are just going through the motions. --- They will QE until they implode,


Germany is an economic powerhouse despite globalist marxists and greens trying to wreck it. Other countries do ok as well, even in Southern France life is grand. There is a slight US advantage for businesses but shrinking due to xiden, and for higher income earners. That's about it. The tightening of the Fed will strengthen the dollar but may be bad for trade deficit though it's necessary to combat inflation. The US still has the highest gdp per capita, but compared to Germany (which pretty much only used to mine coal) it is a a abundant in natural resources.
36   Ceffer   2022 May 1, 12:07pm  

I'm estimating between inflation from last year through stock market downward adjustments so far, the Hummer Fleet has deflated by a real 'spending decline' of at least 20 percent, maybe 25 percent. We'll see how it goes. I haven't started painting cardboard signs to use at the intersections yet. I should probably invest in a high quality taser to chase the other bums away from the prime spots.
40   HunterTits   2022 May 3, 1:04pm  

DooDahMan says
March’s Inflation Report Is Coming, and It Won’t Be Pretty. Expect a 1.1% Jump.


AND the GDP contracted by a similar amount.

That means we have officially entered Stagflation territory. Something we haven't seen since the 1970s.

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