patrick.net

The government caused inflation by giving money away.
The “earned income credit” is free money for having a kid in your household.
I believe it’s been increased from $3500 per kid.
You also get the credit if you earn less than $21,000 ($1500)
57% of people pay no income tax so they are going to spend the money on something.
I’m sick to my stomach every April; the government is giving away trillions of dollars and it sells IOUs (borrows money) to do it.
I’m more concerned about taxes on our life savings than inflation.

clambo says

The government caused inflation by giving money away.

Bingo.

America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.

YAMS!!! Seriously, Potatoes and Tomatoes and Bunching Onions. 60lb of Rice. Two cans of meat per week for 4 weeks so far. 5lb of Coffee and Sugar. Six cans of Evap Milk, one box of dry milk. Looking for reasonable powdered butter, but the prices are insane. My .45LC derringer from Bond Arms with one round of Snake and one round of .410 defense load at all times. Snake shot is also bird shot if needs be, pigeon pie or just load with .410 birdshot. Don't know how to fish but I can build a weir because I went hunting for tropical fish in Paraguay a few times rather than buy at the pet shop because I'm a cheap asshole and it was fun.

I drive during the day and clean other delivery trucks to Midnight. Slogging 50 hours a week.

Next up: .22 Rifle, sold my old one a decade ago when I moved overseas. Eventually a 9mm carbine and lots of 9mm, or, the enemy will be the quartermaster.

Goran_K says

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.

Ammo and yams!

We’re back to the 70’s.

Jimmy Carter=kook
Biden=senile

Brezhnev=invades Afghanistan
Putin=invades Ukraine

1970’s high gasoline prices, high inflation
2021 high gasoline prices, high inflation

1970s fear of global cooling causing S Hemisphere crop failures
2021 fear of global warming doing something?

1970s snow storms on the east coast
2021 snow storms on the east coast

1970 geezers escaping to Florida
2021 geezers escaping to Florida

1980 voter reaction=threw some bums out
2022 voter reaction=fraud by mail? Throw the bums out? Fingers crossed.

Goran_K says

Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.

@Goran_K some ideas:

gold
TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities) - doesn't really cover inflation, but better than most bonds
certain stocks that take a percentage of transactions, like Visa (V)
non-perishable commodities like alcohol
ammo

I've been collecting a few bicycles, because they hold value in good times, and rise when in value when supply chains break. Not that that is any significant store of money.

Used cars would probably work too. Their value has surged lately.

Getting your money back out of things like alcohol and ammo can be hard if you end up with way more than you need.

Series I Savings Bonds currently pay about 7.1%

I heard someone say they think it will go over 9.6% when the new price comes out for May issuances.

A guaranteed 9.6% is not shabby. Too bad there's a 10k per year purchase limit.

Patrick says

Goran_K says

Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.

@Goran_K some ideas:

gold
TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities) - doesn't really cover inflation, but better than most bonds
certain stocks that take a percentage of transactions, like Visa (V)
non-perishable commodities like alcohol
ammo

I've been collecting a few bicycles, because they hold value in good times, and rise when in value when supply chains break. Not that that is any significant store of money.

Used cars would probably work too. Their value has surged lately.

Getting your money back out of things like alcohol and ammo can be hard if you end up with way more than you need.

I'll take a look at TIPS.

I literally have over 200,000 rounds of ammo (various calibers). I am also thinking of buying more precious metals.

Hircus says

Series I Savings Bonds currently pay about 7.1%

I heard someone say they think it will go over 9.6% when the new price comes out for May issuances.

A guaranteed 9.6% is not shabby. Too bad there's a 10k per year purchase limit.

That's pretty crazy. You can buy them online too!

Goran_K says

Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.

If a billionaire came to you and said “invest in my company, and I’ll pay you 15% yield annually.” What would you say?

Carl Icahn owns more than 90% of IEP. The stock is around $53, and it pays $8/year in dividend.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but rather than dropping $100k to pay for the Model X, I used the money to buy the stock. Use the dividends to make car payments. Once the car is paid off, “hopefully” the stock still holds its value.

Not financial advice of course. 🤑

Eman says

Goran_K says

Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.

If a billionaire came to you and said “invest in my company, and I’ll pay you 15% yield annually.” What would you say?

Carl Icahn owns more than 90% of IEP. The stock is around $53, and it pays $8/year in dividend.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but rather than dropping $100k to pay for the Model X, I used the money to buy the stock. Use the dividends to make car payments. Once the car is paid off, “hopefully” the stock still holds its value.

Not financial advice of course. 🤑

Sound logic. Can’t argue against it.

Goran_K says

Eman says

Goran_K says

Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.

If a billionaire came to you and said “invest in my company, and I’ll pay you 15% yield annually.” What would you say?

Carl Icahn owns more than 90% of IEP. The stock is around $53, and it pays $8/year in dividend.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but rather than dropping $100k to pay for the Model X, I used the money to buy the stock. Use the dividends to make car payments. Once the car is paid off, “hopefully” the stock still holds its value.

Not financial advice of course. 🤑

Sound logic. Can’t argue against it.

From the Tesla Website: https://ir.tesla.com/contact-us?source=patrick.net#accordion-1-does-tesla-pay-a-dividend-does-it-plan-to
Tesla has never declared dividends on our common stock. We intend on retaining all future earnings to finance future growth and therefore, do not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future.

I did a similar thing. Bought Tesla Stock, it went 5x, sold 80%, reinvested this in my portfolio. Using the increase to pay for my Model Y.
In hindsight I should never have sold, but the stock was overweight in my portfolio.

Cameron Winklevoss
@cameron
Apr 12
Inflation broken down by month/"reason":

2021
Oct = 6.2% "transitory"
Nov = 6.8% "greedy corporations"
Dec = 7.0% "supply-chain bottlenecks"

2022
Jan = 7.5% "supply-chain bottlenecks"
Feb = 7.9% "oil prices"
Mar = 8.5% "Putin price hike"

What will they blame next?

And companies like this advertising on Facebook to entice people to buy a vacation rental property.

Maybe this is showing we are at the peak of the housing and asset bubble when there are advertisements like this.

Note about I-bond timing. If you believe the US will go into a inflationary spiral forever, or if you'll need the bond money before rates fall, then wait until next month to get the higher rate. Otherwise, buy right now (before May 1) as you'll get a good rate (7.12% annualized), and then an even higher rate October 1 when the six month window resets the rate (as March CPI numbers show the rate will rise for the six month window of May 1 to Oct. 31).

DooDahMan says

The analysis of Securities and Exchange Commission filings for 100 US corporations found net profits up by a median of 49%,

Tyson Foods was $92 a share in January 2020. Now it is about $94 but its valuation (P/E) is extremely low.

.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/lobster-prices-surge-inflation-210518350.html?source=patrick.net

Lobster prices surge with inflation

Economy shrank by 1.4% during first quarter of 2022.

I expect it will shrink the second quarter given many factors like Russia's war in Ukraine and skyhigh gas prices.

.

https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/the-doom-loop-161a42bbcd50?source=patrick.net

The Federal government will soon pay more in interest on its debt than it receives in tax receipts if it’s forced to pay an interest rate that is much higher than today’s. That is the start of an insolvency doom loop. The obvious solution is to redirect the Fed off of its inflation-fighting path towards one of accommodation once more. Accommodation will come in the form of explicit price fixing of the Treasury curve, which is euphemistically called Yield Curve Control (YCC).

However bad you think we have it in the States, Europe is worse, China's economy isn't there, and people are giggling at Japan.

Misc says

However bad you think we have it in the States, Europe is worse, China's economy isn't there, and people are giggling at Japan.

Europe is continuing zirp/qe and thus the dollar has gotten stronger again and the Euro crashed. It's maybe somewhat worse over there, not by much though. You have more opportunities here to react to changes and make money from it as the US economy is still freer than Europe's, but the wealth gap is bigger here.

mell says

Misc says

However bad you think we have it in the States, Europe is worse, China's economy isn't there, and people are giggling at Japan.

Europe is continuing zirp/qe and thus the dollar has gotten stronger again and the Euro crashed. It's maybe somewhat worse over there, not by much though. You have more opportunities here to react to changes and make money from it as the US economy is still freer than Europe's, but the wealth gap is bigger here.

Just over 20% of the population are retired in Europe,

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Ageing_Europe-_statistics_on_working_and_moving_into_retirement&source=patrick.net

For Western European nations the percentage of those on disability for those working age runs in the mid-20%'es.

About 25% of their economies are welfare spending. Yes includes the huge numbers of muslim immigrants. https://fullfact.org/europe/does-europe-account-half-worlds-welfare-spending/?source=patrick.net

The percentage of the populous working for the government runs about 18%.

About 15% of the population is under 18. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_structure_and_ageing&source=patrick.net

When you factor in those in university and those in labor unions. There just ain't that many doing any real work.

In France (pre-Covid) the taxes on the working French were running about 70% and the government was going to increase taxes even more (hence the yellow jacket revolts).

There is no European economy, it is all fake, people are just going through the motions. --- They will QE until they implode,

Misc says

There is no European economy, it is all fake, people are just going through the motions. --- They will QE until they implode,

Germany is an economic powerhouse despite globalist marxists and greens trying to wreck it. Other countries do ok as well, even in Southern France life is grand. There is a slight US advantage for businesses but shrinking due to xiden, and for higher income earners. That's about it. The tightening of the Fed will strengthen the dollar but may be bad for trade deficit though it's necessary to combat inflation. The US still has the highest gdp per capita, but compared to Germany (which pretty much only used to mine coal) it is a a abundant in natural resources.

I'm estimating between inflation from last year through stock market downward adjustments so far, the Hummer Fleet has deflated by a real 'spending decline' of at least 20 percent, maybe 25 percent. We'll see how it goes. I haven't started painting cardboard signs to use at the intersections yet. I should probably invest in a high quality taser to chase the other bums away from the prime spots.

https://nitter.pussthecat.org/Not_the_Bee/status/1519691984155328512?source=patrick.net

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-clorox-raising-prices-103612445.html?source=patrick.net

Clorox is jacking up prices (again)

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/gas-prices-reach-new-record-high/?source=patrick.net

Patrick says

https://www.patrick.net/post/1338778/2021-04-14-inflation-incoming?start=236

Note that original Whitehouse post was just a paragraph or two and has been edited and grown over the year.