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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12


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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am   147,107 views  1,539 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:
https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

« First        Comments 10 - 49 of 1,539       Last »     Search these comments

10   Patrick   2022 Apr 12, 12:34pm  

Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


@Goran_K some ideas:

gold
TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities) - doesn't really cover inflation, but better than most bonds
certain stocks that take a percentage of transactions, like Visa (V)
non-perishable commodities like alcohol
ammo

I've been collecting a few bicycles, because they hold value in good times, and rise when in value when supply chains break. Not that that is any significant store of money.

Used cars would probably work too. Their value has surged lately.

Getting your money back out of things like alcohol and ammo can be hard if you end up with way more than you need.
11   Hircus   2022 Apr 12, 1:53pm  

Series I Savings Bonds currently pay about 7.1%

I heard someone say they think it will go over 9.6% when the new price comes out for May issuances.

A guaranteed 9.6% is not shabby. Too bad there's a 10k per year purchase limit.
12   Goran_K   2022 Apr 12, 2:44pm  

Patrick says
Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


@Goran_K some ideas:

gold
TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities) - doesn't really cover inflation, but better than most bonds
certain stocks that take a percentage of transactions, like Visa (V)
non-perishable commodities like alcohol
ammo

I've been collecting a few bicycles, because they hold value in good times, and rise when in value when supply chains break. Not that that is any significant store of money.

Used cars would probably work too. Their value has surged lately.

Getting your money back out of things like alcohol and ammo can be hard if you end up with way more than you need.


I'll take a look at TIPS.

I literally have over 200,000 rounds of ammo (various calibers). I am also thinking of buying more precious metals.
13   Goran_K   2022 Apr 12, 2:44pm  

Hircus says
Series I Savings Bonds currently pay about 7.1%

I heard someone say they think it will go over 9.6% when the new price comes out for May issuances.

A guaranteed 9.6% is not shabby. Too bad there's a 10k per year purchase limit.


That's pretty crazy. You can buy them online too!
14   Eman   2022 Apr 12, 3:43pm  

Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


If a billionaire came to you and said “invest in my company, and I’ll pay you 15% yield annually.” What would you say?

Carl Icahn owns more than 90% of IEP. The stock is around $53, and it pays $8/year in dividend.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but rather than dropping $100k to pay for the Model X, I used the money to buy the stock. Use the dividends to make car payments. Once the car is paid off, “hopefully” the stock still holds its value.

Not financial advice of course. 🤑
15   Goran_K   2022 Apr 12, 4:36pm  

Eman says
Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


If a billionaire came to you and said “invest in my company, and I’ll pay you 15% yield annually.” What would you say?

Carl Icahn owns more than 90% of IEP. The stock is around $53, and it pays $8/year in dividend.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but rather than dropping $100k to pay for the Model X, I used the money to buy the stock. Use the dividends to make car payments. Once the car is paid off, “hopefully” the stock still holds its value.

Not financial advice of course. 🤑


Sound logic. Can’t argue against it.
16   rocketjoe79   2022 Apr 12, 7:47pm  

Goran_K says
Eman says
Goran_K says
Damn we're fucked.

How is everyone hedging? Seriously I'm open to ideas.


If a billionaire came to you and said “invest in my company, and I’ll pay you 15% yield annually.” What would you say?

Carl Icahn owns more than 90% of IEP. The stock is around $53, and it pays $8/year in dividend.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but rather than dropping $100k to pay for the Model X, I used the money to buy the stock. Use the dividends to make car payments. Once the car is paid off, “hopefully” the stock still holds its value.

Not financial advice of course. 🤑


Sound logic. Can’t argue against it.


From the Tesla Website: https://ir.tesla.com/contact-us?source=patrick.net#accordion-1-does-tesla-pay-a-dividend-does-it-plan-to
Tesla has never declared dividends on our common stock. We intend on retaining all future earnings to finance future growth and therefore, do not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future.

I did a similar thing. Bought Tesla Stock, it went 5x, sold 80%, reinvested this in my portfolio. Using the increase to pay for my Model Y.
In hindsight I should never have sold, but the stock was overweight in my portfolio.
18   Patrick   2022 Apr 13, 9:45am  


Cameron Winklevoss
@cameron
Apr 12
Inflation broken down by month/"reason":

2021
Oct = 6.2% "transitory"
Nov = 6.8% "greedy corporations"
Dec = 7.0% "supply-chain bottlenecks"

2022
Jan = 7.5% "supply-chain bottlenecks"
Feb = 7.9% "oil prices"
Mar = 8.5% "Putin price hike"

What will they blame next?
21   AD   2022 Apr 27, 11:24am  

And companies like this advertising on Facebook to entice people to buy a vacation rental property.

Maybe this is showing we are at the peak of the housing and asset bubble when there are advertisements like this.


22   EBGuy   2022 Apr 27, 2:21pm  

Note about I-bond timing. If you believe the US will go into a inflationary spiral forever, or if you'll need the bond money before rates fall, then wait until next month to get the higher rate. Otherwise, buy right now (before May 1) as you'll get a good rate (7.12% annualized), and then an even higher rate October 1 when the six month window resets the rate (as March CPI numbers show the rate will rise for the six month window of May 1 to Oct. 31).
23   AD   2022 Apr 27, 8:05pm  

DooDahMan says
The analysis of Securities and Exchange Commission filings for 100 US corporations found net profits up by a median of 49%,


Tyson Foods was $92 a share in January 2020. Now it is about $94 but its valuation (P/E) is extremely low.

.
25   AD   2022 Apr 28, 9:45am  

Economy shrank by 1.4% during first quarter of 2022.

I expect it will shrink the second quarter given many factors like Russia's war in Ukraine and skyhigh gas prices.

.
26   Patrick   2022 Apr 28, 8:39pm  

https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/the-doom-loop-161a42bbcd50?source=patrick.net


The Federal government will soon pay more in interest on its debt than it receives in tax receipts if it’s forced to pay an interest rate that is much higher than today’s. That is the start of an insolvency doom loop. The obvious solution is to redirect the Fed off of its inflation-fighting path towards one of accommodation once more. Accommodation will come in the form of explicit price fixing of the Treasury curve, which is euphemistically called Yield Curve Control (YCC).
27   Misc   2022 Apr 29, 11:08am  

However bad you think we have it in the States, Europe is worse, China's economy isn't there, and people are giggling at Japan.
29   mell   2022 Apr 29, 9:09pm  

Misc says

However bad you think we have it in the States, Europe is worse, China's economy isn't there, and people are giggling at Japan.


Europe is continuing zirp/qe and thus the dollar has gotten stronger again and the Euro crashed. It's maybe somewhat worse over there, not by much though. You have more opportunities here to react to changes and make money from it as the US economy is still freer than Europe's, but the wealth gap is bigger here.
30   Misc   2022 May 1, 3:43am  

mell says

Misc says

However bad you think we have it in the States, Europe is worse, China's economy isn't there, and people are giggling at Japan.


Europe is continuing zirp/qe and thus the dollar has gotten stronger again and the Euro crashed. It's maybe somewhat worse over there, not by much though. You have more opportunities here to react to changes and make money from it as the US economy is still freer than Europe's, but the wealth gap is bigger here.


Just over 20% of the population are retired in Europe,

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Ageing_Europe-_statistics_on_working_and_moving_into_retirement&source=patrick.net

For Western European nations the percentage of those on disability for those working age runs in the mid-20%'es.

About 25% of their economies are welfare spending. Yes includes the huge numbers of muslim immigrants. https://fullfact.org/europe/does-europe-account-half-worlds-welfare-spending/?source=patrick.net

The percentage of the populous working for the government runs about 18%.

About 15% of the population is under 18. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_structure_and_ageing&source=patrick.net

When you factor in those in university and those in labor unions. There just ain't that many doing any real work.

In France (pre-Covid) the taxes on the working French were running about 70% and the government was going to increase taxes even more (hence the yellow jacket revolts).

There is no European economy, it is all fake, people are just going through the motions. --- They will QE until they implode,
31   mell   2022 May 1, 9:12am  

Misc says
There is no European economy, it is all fake, people are just going through the motions. --- They will QE until they implode,


Germany is an economic powerhouse despite globalist marxists and greens trying to wreck it. Other countries do ok as well, even in Southern France life is grand. There is a slight US advantage for businesses but shrinking due to xiden, and for higher income earners. That's about it. The tightening of the Fed will strengthen the dollar but may be bad for trade deficit though it's necessary to combat inflation. The US still has the highest gdp per capita, but compared to Germany (which pretty much only used to mine coal) it is a a abundant in natural resources.
33   Ceffer   2022 May 1, 12:07pm  

I'm estimating between inflation from last year through stock market downward adjustments so far, the Hummer Fleet has deflated by a real 'spending decline' of at least 20 percent, maybe 25 percent. We'll see how it goes. I haven't started painting cardboard signs to use at the intersections yet. I should probably invest in a high quality taser to chase the other bums away from the prime spots.
42   RC2006   2022 May 13, 12:29pm  

Patrick says








https://www.patrick.net/post/1338778/2021-04-14-inflation-incoming?start=236

Note that original Whitehouse post was just a paragraph or two and has been edited and grown over the year.
46   Patrick   2022 May 24, 11:52am  

https://nypost.com/2022/05/23/biden-praises-gas-prices-as-part-of-incredible-transition/

Out of touch as ever, President Biden celebrated record-high gas prices Monday, gushing that the pump pain was part of “an incredible transition” of the US economy away from fossil fuels.
47   Patrick   2022 May 24, 11:45pm  

https://nitter.net/AlexEpstein/status/1529098268327616513#m


Alex Epstein
@AlexEpstein
16h
My new book Fossil Future comes out today, and not a moment too soon.

Anti-fossil fuel policies have caused a global energy crisis--which is now causing a global food crisis.

Fossil Future proves definitively that the world needs more fossil fuels.

I wrote Fossil Future because, as the current energy crisis is tragically demonstrating, billions of lives depend on the *enormous and widely-ignored benefits of fossil fuels*.

Fossil Future carefully weighs BOTH the benefits and side-effects of fossil fuels.

When you weigh both the benefits and side-effects of fossil fuels from a human flourishing perspective, you find that most of the world's thought leaders are 180° wrong: global human flourishing doesn't require rapidly eliminating fossil fuel use, it requires expanding it.
49   Patrick   2022 May 28, 5:26pm  

https://patriotpost.us/articles/88666


That Other Driver of Inflation: Regulation
Excessive government spending isn’t the only activity that causes costs to skyrocket.

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