Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12
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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am 146,757 views 1,539 comments
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73
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Jun 5, 10:19am
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Jun 5, 10:19am
Shaman says
If my arithmetic using the exponential is right, 50% price rise in 6 years is 6.7% annualized. Yikes.
Shaman says
Yes and no.
Massive capital destruction for pension funds and insurance companies. Yes their managers are probably a bunch of assholes, but that won't stop wee little folk like we little folk from getting hurt.
Shaman says
If your pay or income keeps up with the ability to service the shrunken debt. Like, no disruption in employment, no haircut in retirement income, no tax increases.
Can you say, "Stagflation?".
We will see at least 50% inflation from 2020-2026
If my arithmetic using the exponential is right, 50% price rise in 6 years is 6.7% annualized. Yikes.
Shaman says
Creditors are going to get shafted hard. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of ASSHOLES!
Yes and no.
Massive capital destruction for pension funds and insurance companies. Yes their managers are probably a bunch of assholes, but that won't stop wee little folk like we little folk from getting hurt.
Shaman says
That means your million dollar shack will be worth $1.5 million, but your $800,000 debt will be “worth” $600,000 in inflation adjusted value.
If your pay or income keeps up with the ability to service the shrunken debt. Like, no disruption in employment, no haircut in retirement income, no tax increases.
Can you say, "Stagflation?".
76
richwicks
2022 Jun 6, 12:39am
richwicks
2022 Jun 6, 12:39am
B.A.C.A.H. says
We are in for massive inflation.
I need to post the national debt priced in commodities over the last 100 years or so. The pattern is clear. $100 will buy you a cup of coffee in 2030.
People who are unaware of Hayek or Mises have no idea what is coming. Austrian economics is NOT a system, it's a science, the science of what happens in any market. Communist, free market, fascist, kleptocracy, anything. Economics is the study of how people interact in groups, it's almost psychology. Keynesianism is a system, a failed one. It was designed to fail. Given power to a centralized authority always results in a calamity because power always corrupts.
Shaman saysWe will see at least 50% inflation from 2020-2026
If my arithmetic using the exponential is right, 50% price rise in 6 years is 6.7% annualized. Yikes.
We are in for massive inflation.
I need to post the national debt priced in commodities over the last 100 years or so. The pattern is clear. $100 will buy you a cup of coffee in 2030.
People who are unaware of Hayek or Mises have no idea what is coming. Austrian economics is NOT a system, it's a science, the science of what happens in any market. Communist, free market, fascist, kleptocracy, anything. Economics is the study of how people interact in groups, it's almost psychology. Keynesianism is a system, a failed one. It was designed to fail. Given power to a centralized authority always results in a calamity because power always corrupts.
77
REpro
2022 Jun 6, 11:41pm
REpro
2022 Jun 6, 11:41pm
DooDahMan says
Two economic indicators do not play well in regard of my knowledge of economy.
This is:
1. Price of Gold. Investor usually run up gold prices to avoid inflation burn. Not this time.
2. Price of 10y. Treasury Bonds. This is typical money parking for big investors. They went up but well below when they should be. Usually, they exceed inflation by about 1.3%
Is then inflation seen as a very short event?
Inflation will be higher for longer — and you’re not going to like what comes next
Prices for oil, natural gas, food and other goods will stay elevated while economic growth slides, bringing stagflation. Let’s review six factors now shaking the U.S. and global economies that set the stage for stagflation:
1. Oil
2. Natural gas
3. Food
4. Interest rates
5. Supply-chain problems
6. Deglobalization
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-inflation-will-stick-around-longer-and-youre-not-going-to-like-what-comes-after-11653415808?mod=home-page
Two economic indicators do not play well in regard of my knowledge of economy.
This is:
1. Price of Gold. Investor usually run up gold prices to avoid inflation burn. Not this time.
2. Price of 10y. Treasury Bonds. This is typical money parking for big investors. They went up but well below when they should be. Usually, they exceed inflation by about 1.3%
Is then inflation seen as a very short event?
78
zzyzzx
2022 Jun 10, 7:04am
zzyzzx
2022 Jun 10, 7:04am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-inflation-data-june-10-2022-212834308.html
Inflation hits 40-year high as CPI rises 8.6% in May
So wall street takes a dump because they think that the federal reserve is maybe possibly going to do the right thing and jack up interest rates more than .5% next week?
Inflation hits 40-year high as CPI rises 8.6% in May
So wall street takes a dump because they think that the federal reserve is maybe possibly going to do the right thing and jack up interest rates more than .5% next week?
79
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Jun 10, 7:53am
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Jun 10, 7:53am
I think I've read more than half of the US dollars are outside of the US.
But I think maybe they're referring to physical paper bills, like 100's or whatever. Maybe if we include all the credit and whatnot it's a lot more than half.
So now that we've been asleep at the wheel, distracted by COVID and Gun Nuts and The Kardashians and Same Sex Marriage and Trannies and Abortion RIghts, we allowed the fate of our currency to get outside of our control. It's our own fault. The federal reserve board can peg its overnight loan rate and tweak its Balance Sheet, but most of the dollars are outside its control. I suppose it's like steering a motorboat in front of a 100 meter tall rouge wave. (Or maybe in our case, a McMansion cruise liner packed with obese leisure travelers).
But I think maybe they're referring to physical paper bills, like 100's or whatever. Maybe if we include all the credit and whatnot it's a lot more than half.
So now that we've been asleep at the wheel, distracted by COVID and Gun Nuts and The Kardashians and Same Sex Marriage and Trannies and Abortion RIghts, we allowed the fate of our currency to get outside of our control. It's our own fault. The federal reserve board can peg its overnight loan rate and tweak its Balance Sheet, but most of the dollars are outside its control. I suppose it's like steering a motorboat in front of a 100 meter tall rouge wave. (Or maybe in our case, a McMansion cruise liner packed with obese leisure travelers).
82
Patrick
2022 Jun 10, 8:05pm
Patrick
2022 Jun 10, 8:05pm
https://nypost.com/2022/06/10/inflation-costing-americans-an-extra-460-per-month-analysis/
Inflation costing Americans an extra $460 per month, analysis says
84
Patrick
2022 Jun 10, 9:47pm
Patrick
2022 Jun 10, 9:47pm
https://www.dailywire.com/news/shrinkflation-cereal-brand-cuts-amount-per-box-by-17-toilet-paper-brand-slashes-roll-size-24
Shrinkflation: Cereal Brand Cuts Amount Per Box By 17%; Toilet Paper Brand Slashes Roll Size 24%
Shrinkflation: Cereal Brand Cuts Amount Per Box By 17%; Toilet Paper Brand Slashes Roll Size 24%
86
Booger
2022 Jun 11, 11:34am
Booger
2022 Jun 11, 11:34am
Patrick says
I'm thinking that it is more than that. Maybe for just food or gas alone?
https://nypost.com/2022/06/10/inflation-costing-americans-an-extra-460-per-month-analysis/
Inflation costing Americans an extra $460 per month, analysis says
I'm thinking that it is more than that. Maybe for just food or gas alone?
87
Patrick
2022 Jun 11, 12:54pm
Patrick
2022 Jun 11, 12:54pm
I also think inflation is clearly far higher than the supposed 8.5%.
88
AD
2022 Jun 11, 1:12pm
AD
2022 Jun 11, 1:12pm
.
CPI (government reported inflation) was about 2.3% a year since the mid 1990s to 2021 :-/
;
,
CPI (government reported inflation) was about 2.3% a year since the mid 1990s to 2021 :-/
;
,
92
AD
2022 Jun 12, 12:49am
AD
2022 Jun 12, 12:49am
Patrick says
Where did all the money go ?
If all the new money pumped up housing that means housing prices need to return to early 2020 price levels ?
So the S&P 500 (around 4000 points) needs to return to the February 2020 level (around 3300 points) ?
.
notthebee.com/article/come-read-this-thread-on-why-inflation-is-way-worse-than-theyre-telling-you
Where did all the money go ?
If all the new money pumped up housing that means housing prices need to return to early 2020 price levels ?
So the S&P 500 (around 4000 points) needs to return to the February 2020 level (around 3300 points) ?
.
93
AmericanKulak
2022 Jun 12, 12:56am
AmericanKulak
2022 Jun 12, 12:56am
Patrick says
No doubt about it. Closer to 15-20%.
Don't forget Shrinkflation and Hedonics.
I also think inflation is clearly far higher than the supposed 8.5%.
No doubt about it. Closer to 15-20%.
Don't forget Shrinkflation and Hedonics.
95
AD
2022 Jun 12, 4:30pm
AD
2022 Jun 12, 4:30pm
Patrick says
.
Where did all the money go ?
If all the new money pumped up housing that means housing prices need to return to early 2020 price levels ?
So the S&P 500 (around 4000 points) needs to return to the February 2020 level (around 3300 points) ?
.
https://thegoodcitizen.substack.com/p/i-am-uncle-sams-inflation
.
Where did all the money go ?
If all the new money pumped up housing that means housing prices need to return to early 2020 price levels ?
So the S&P 500 (around 4000 points) needs to return to the February 2020 level (around 3300 points) ?
.
96
Patrick
2022 Jun 13, 11:13am
Patrick
2022 Jun 13, 11:13am
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/06/13/volcker-and-inflation/
Here’s my alternative view; what if monetary actions mostly serve to impact the price of risk assets, while fiscal mostly impacts the economy’s growth rate, and government policy mostly controls for inflation? As I’ve experienced the interplay of these three factors over more than two decades as an investor, I increasingly think that this is the case.
106
Patrick
2022 Jun 22, 10:38am
Patrick
2022 Jun 22, 10:38am
RNC Research
@RNCResearch
1h
Q: “Would you say that the war in Ukraine is the primary driver of inflation in America?”
Fed Chair Powell: “No. Inflation was high before, certainly before the war in Ukraine broke out.”
108
Patrick
2022 Jun 26, 2:33pm
Patrick
2022 Jun 26, 2:33pm
https://gettr.com/user/EdwardDowd
Edward Dowd
@EdwardDowd
Jun 23
We have twin policy errors.
First error: The energy policies of the US & EU coupled with supply chain breaks are primarily responsible for inflation. This is the first commodity cycle where the $DXY has had a concurrent rise with commodities suggesting mostly policy not monetary. Throw in Ukraine war and it’s an accelerant.
Second Error: The Fed is tightening into a credit contraction caused by first error.
Unless the Fed reverses course we are headed for a very hard landing.
Elections in fall are key to reversing first error. Any event that disrupts elections will cause things to become even more unhinged.
110
RC2006
2022 Jun 27, 5:45pm
RC2006
2022 Jun 27, 5:45pm
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stimulus-check-california-inflation-relief-payments-23-million-up-to-1050/#app
Throw more money that will fix inflation.
Throw more money that will fix inflation.
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https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati
Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.
EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net