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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12
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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am 139,594 views 1,279 comments
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1187
AD
2024 Jun 28, 11:16pm
AD
2024 Jun 28, 11:16pm
Overall PCE (annual inflation) reported today for end of May 2024 data as 2.6%.
Annual inflation (based on PCE) excluding food energy has been trending below 3% for last 6 months.
Overall PCE has been trending below 2.8% for last 6 months.
The new normal likely is annual inflation between 2.5% and 3.5%.
I noticed the 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhomes within 2 miles of the Florida Panhandle's beaches are listed for around $295,000.
Their peak sales price was in early 2022 around $330,000, and the locked-in 30 year mortgage rate was around 3.25%.
And the rent price is around $2200 which is same as it was 2 to 3 years ago.
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Annual inflation (based on PCE) excluding food energy has been trending below 3% for last 6 months.
Overall PCE has been trending below 2.8% for last 6 months.
The new normal likely is annual inflation between 2.5% and 3.5%.
I noticed the 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhomes within 2 miles of the Florida Panhandle's beaches are listed for around $295,000.
Their peak sales price was in early 2022 around $330,000, and the locked-in 30 year mortgage rate was around 3.25%.
And the rent price is around $2200 which is same as it was 2 to 3 years ago.
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1188
AD
2024 Jun 28, 11:21pm
AD
2024 Jun 28, 11:21pm
Notice from the PCE data that durable goods continues to show deflationary or minimum inflationary pressure, as people are buying less computers, cars, refrigerators, furniture, etc.
That should be one of the first signs or symptoms that the economy is slowing down.
Its going to be interesting if the economy slows enough in next few months and right before the November election for people to allow that to influence their vote.
I am looking at Real Clear Politics composite poll data and all those Democrat Senators like in Nevada and Ohio are ahead in the polls. This should be the year that the Republicans can take back the Senate with a +3 seat lead.
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That should be one of the first signs or symptoms that the economy is slowing down.
Its going to be interesting if the economy slows enough in next few months and right before the November election for people to allow that to influence their vote.
I am looking at Real Clear Politics composite poll data and all those Democrat Senators like in Nevada and Ohio are ahead in the polls. This should be the year that the Republicans can take back the Senate with a +3 seat lead.
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1189
AD
2024 Jun 28, 11:49pm
AD
2024 Jun 28, 11:49pm
Here is another bellweather as far as the economy cooling:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike-stock-sinks-after-company-projects-larger-sales-decline-than-expected-in-2025-192129443.html
The Democrats might be just lucky that the mainstream media and the federal bureaucracy manage the economy's narrative so that enough voters are fooled to think the economy is doing well going into the election.
The bough breaks after the November election when the false narrative cannot overcome that sour of economic conditions.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike-stock-sinks-after-company-projects-larger-sales-decline-than-expected-in-2025-192129443.html
The Democrats might be just lucky that the mainstream media and the federal bureaucracy manage the economy's narrative so that enough voters are fooled to think the economy is doing well going into the election.
The bough breaks after the November election when the false narrative cannot overcome that sour of economic conditions.
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1199
AD
2024 Jul 1, 11:31pm
AD
2024 Jul 1, 11:31pm
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https://abc7.com/post/state-farm-seeking-30-rate-hike-california-homeowners/15009617/
State Farm raised property insurance rates in California by 20% this year.
They are requesting a 30% increase for next year.
So a 56% increase in 2 years
(calculation: 1.2 x 1.3 = 1.56)
How much of the increase is not due to increase in the home's replacement value ?
I would surmise at least 65% of the increase is not due to increase in the home's replacement value.
Home values in California went up about 40% to 60% since January 2020.
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https://abc7.com/post/state-farm-seeking-30-rate-hike-california-homeowners/15009617/
State Farm raised property insurance rates in California by 20% this year.
They are requesting a 30% increase for next year.
So a 56% increase in 2 years
(calculation: 1.2 x 1.3 = 1.56)
How much of the increase is not due to increase in the home's replacement value ?
I would surmise at least 65% of the increase is not due to increase in the home's replacement value.
Home values in California went up about 40% to 60% since January 2020.
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1201
zzyzzx
2024 Jul 2, 11:03am
zzyzzx
2024 Jul 2, 11:03am
The good news is, soon you will be a millionaire. The bad news is, so will everyone else.
1202
AD
2024 Jul 2, 2:21pm
AD
2024 Jul 2, 2:21pm
AD says
This goes to the deflation of durable goods as there is less demand to transport durable goods (appliances, computers, furniture, etc.). A major drop in demand for durable goods is one of the first symptoms of an oncoming recession.
I noticed there still are plenty of laptops between $170 and $200 at Walmart such as Hewlett Packard Windows laptops, just like there were in 2020.
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Notice from the PCE data that durable goods continues to show deflationary or minimum inflationary pressure, as people are buying less computers, cars, refrigerators, furniture, etc.
This goes to the deflation of durable goods as there is less demand to transport durable goods (appliances, computers, furniture, etc.). A major drop in demand for durable goods is one of the first symptoms of an oncoming recession.
I noticed there still are plenty of laptops between $170 and $200 at Walmart such as Hewlett Packard Windows laptops, just like there were in 2020.
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1216
AD
2024 Jul 11, 12:45am
AD
2024 Jul 11, 12:45am
The Federal Reserve uses PCE as its inflation indicator and its been below 3% since October 2023 (6 month average is around 2.7%).
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index-annual-change
From what I can see, since September 1991, annual inflation (i.e., PCE) has been mostly ranged between 2 and 3%.
Seems like the economy can manage this if annual inflation remains around 2.7%.
Hopefully the bond market will be more dovish about this, and interest rates drop which will help the federal government with lower debt service payments.
This year the debt payment for the federal government is forecasted around $892 billion, which is more than the Pentagon and National Security budgets.
Debt payment for the federal government was $659 billion last year.
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https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index-annual-change
From what I can see, since September 1991, annual inflation (i.e., PCE) has been mostly ranged between 2 and 3%.
Seems like the economy can manage this if annual inflation remains around 2.7%.
Hopefully the bond market will be more dovish about this, and interest rates drop which will help the federal government with lower debt service payments.
This year the debt payment for the federal government is forecasted around $892 billion, which is more than the Pentagon and National Security budgets.
Debt payment for the federal government was $659 billion last year.
.
1217
DemocratsAreTotallyFucked
2024 Jul 11, 10:07am
DemocratsAreTotallyFucked
2024 Jul 11, 10:07am
AD says
Which is bullshit.
The Federal Reserve uses PCE as its inflation indicator and its been below 3% since October 2023 (6 month average is around 2.7%).
Which is bullshit.
1218
AD
2024 Jul 11, 10:26am
AD
2024 Jul 11, 10:26am
DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says
Yes, but that is CPI which is not as comprehensive as PCE. I just use them to follow trends and CPI is on downward trend with June 2024's annual inflation rate (or 12 month inflation rate) of 3%.
How they calculate CPI and PCE is somewhat controversial as far as the weightings of the aggregates like housing and how it applies to the working class and the lower middle class, especially when it comes to housing.
I am just hoping the bond market eases up and gets dovish views on inflation, and interest rates such as for the 10 year bond drop.
That will help reduce how much the federal government spend's annually on debt service payment, and help to reduce the deficit relative to the Pentagon's and Veteran Affairs' budgets.
.
Which is bullshit.
Yes, but that is CPI which is not as comprehensive as PCE. I just use them to follow trends and CPI is on downward trend with June 2024's annual inflation rate (or 12 month inflation rate) of 3%.
How they calculate CPI and PCE is somewhat controversial as far as the weightings of the aggregates like housing and how it applies to the working class and the lower middle class, especially when it comes to housing.
I am just hoping the bond market eases up and gets dovish views on inflation, and interest rates such as for the 10 year bond drop.
That will help reduce how much the federal government spend's annually on debt service payment, and help to reduce the deficit relative to the Pentagon's and Veteran Affairs' budgets.
.
1219
AD
2024 Jul 11, 10:55am
AD
2024 Jul 11, 10:55am
Still the 3 month and 1 year Treasury did not budge much today after the CPI report which shows inflation continuing to trend down.
The Yield Curve still remains inverted.
What gets me is I go back to late 1990s and PCE was very low. Yet the 10 Year Treasury and 30 Year mortgage were high like they are now.
Back then in 1999 the 30 Year mortgage rate was between 6.5% and 7%, despite PCE (or annual inflation) remaining below 3%. What happened back then ????
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index-annual-change
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mortgage-rate
,
The Yield Curve still remains inverted.
What gets me is I go back to late 1990s and PCE was very low. Yet the 10 Year Treasury and 30 Year mortgage were high like they are now.
Back then in 1999 the 30 Year mortgage rate was between 6.5% and 7%, despite PCE (or annual inflation) remaining below 3%. What happened back then ????
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index-annual-change
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mortgage-rate
,
1222
Joetheplumber
2024 Jul 12, 6:25am
Don't forget the change from 20lb to 15 lb propane tank refills... Been going on for a long fricking time, and no one complains.
Joetheplumber
2024 Jul 12, 6:25am
Don't forget the change from 20lb to 15 lb propane tank refills... Been going on for a long fricking time, and no one complains.
1223
clambo
2024 Jul 12, 6:39am
The price of scuba diving from Jupiter, Florida on a dive boat with 2 tanks (which I rent) is now $150.
I tip the two dive boat crew $20 each, so the total=$190.
Previously it was $120 plus tip=$160.
In California I always did diving from a beach and it cost me nothing except $5 for filling my tank with air.
I tip the two dive boat crew $20 each, so the total=$190.
Previously it was $120 plus tip=$160.
In California I always did diving from a beach and it cost me nothing except $5 for filling my tank with air.
1224
RWSGFY
2024 Jul 12, 7:04am
RWSGFY
2024 Jul 12, 7:04am
Joetheplumber says
Local ACE still fills them to 20lbs and cheaper than your typical gas station exchange.
Don't forget the change from 20lb to 15 lb propane tank refills... Been going on for a long fricking time, and no one complains.
Local ACE still fills them to 20lbs and cheaper than your typical gas station exchange.
1225
AD
2024 Jul 12, 1:15pm
AD
2024 Jul 12, 1:15pm
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The Panama City Beach "bed tax" (for hotels, motels and vacation rentals) is down for April 2024 compared to April 2023 and the previous years.
This tells me the economy is slowing and people cutting back on vacation spending because of inflation.
April 2021 bed tax receipts of $3,245,636 were stellar because a lot of people had COVID money and wanted to go vacation in Florida.
I am going to check to see if there has been "less inflation" (also called "disinflation") for hotel room rates and restaurant food.
.
.
The Panama City Beach "bed tax" (for hotels, motels and vacation rentals) is down for April 2024 compared to April 2023 and the previous years.
This tells me the economy is slowing and people cutting back on vacation spending because of inflation.
April 2021 bed tax receipts of $3,245,636 were stellar because a lot of people had COVID money and wanted to go vacation in Florida.
I am going to check to see if there has been "less inflation" (also called "disinflation") for hotel room rates and restaurant food.
.
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https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati
Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.
EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net