patrick.net

Patrick says

Joe Biden is failing

If the economy is that bad over the next 6 months , then the media will try to not ignore it but say its not as bad as people think.

And their script or narrative will be that Trump cannot be President at any cost, even if there is a perception that Biden is terrible for the economy.

They'll just very subtly and sophisticatedly lower the bar.

https://www.livemint.com/economy/uday-kotak-of-kotak-bank-shows-this-wild-card-as-he-warns-to-be-ready-for-turbulence-11712816658708.html
Sounds like inflation is underreported because of the election year.

Asset price inflation precedes consumer/producer price inflation. Once all the ZIRP money taps out assets, the only place it can go is commodities or the basics required for living. This is ref to post 929.

Case in point, for the last 5 years:


Now just look at gold from 2024:

Instead of a 6 pack:

https://babylonbee.com/cleanArticle/biden-diet-craze-sweeps-the-nation-where-you-pay-the-same-amount-of-money-for-food-but-eat-50-less

170 instead of 200:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/04/16/powell-cites-lack-of-progress-this-year-in-reaching-feds-inflation-goal.html

Fed Chair Powell says there has been a 'lack of further progress' this year on inflation

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/the-supercore-inflation-measure-shows-fed-may-have-a-real-problem-on-its-hands.html

The ‘supercore’ inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem on its hands

https://www.newsweek.com/bidens-inflation-still-matters-swing-state-voters-opinion-1890569

The_Deplorable says

Fed doesn't take 40% of your paycheck.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Fed doesn't take 40% of your paycheck.

32 - 35% marginal rate + Obamacare taxes, plus Social Security, so yes. Then state taxes in top of that.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2024/04/17/canada-grocery-stores-shrinkflation/

Shrinkflation ramps up as grocery prices rise

zzyzzx says

32 - 35% marginal rate + Obamacare taxes, plus Social Security, so yes. Then state taxes in top of that.
958

The Fed does not collect taxes at all.

Try not to stick your dick in it:

zzyzzx says

32 - 35% marginal rate + Obamacare taxes, plus Social Security, so yes. Then state taxes in top of that.

That is true as after paying say 32% on federal income tax then you have to pay self employed tax (Social Security and Medicare) which I believe is 15.3%.

Then if you do not have insurance through your company since you are self employed and have only 1 or 2 employees, then you have to buy on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchange. Get ready to pay at least $850 a month for a high deductible silver plan without any subsidies.

Then you got the state income tax, property tax, and sales tax at the non-federal level.

So what's the TOTAL effective tax rate from federal to local tax on your total income ? 50% at least ?

I don't count the ACA in the TOTAL but I wonder how much of the $850 monthly premium for a silver plan is a "transfer payment" or essentially a tax.

Even the Chief Justice of SCOTUS said its essentially tax in his ruling.
.

zzyzzx says

Try not to stick your dick in it:

Hole is too small.

Patrick says

Inflation can be slowing, but the price increases are here to stay. It will take deflation to result in prices going down.

zzyzzx says

Try not to stick your dick in it:

That is not what the Hippies meant when they said they "Want to come into some bread."

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Inflation can be slowing, but the price increases are here to stay. It will take deflation to result in prices going down.

Deflation is extremely unlikely and it's not important if prices go down. All that matters is the wage-price relationship. It's better for wages to simply rise to meet prices, or both to meet in the middle, which is what eventually happens.

The price inflation that recently occurred was not the direct result of any recent Fed activity. It was the result of massive wage inflation that occurred during 2020. This was the result of pumping the economy during COVID to prevent a crash, by a combination of government incentives to businesses and consumers.

Price inflation followed wage inflation in a very predictable manner; after all, you can't pump demand by handing out money to everyone and expect prices to stay the same. That's not how markets work.



As the above chart shows, there was a massive wage spike in early 2020 due to the Trump administration response to COVID:

There was a return to "quantitative easing" i.e. government purchase of debt; special-purpose vehicles (SPVs) that gave businesses low- to zero-interest loans, massive interest rate cuts; the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) where the government essentially gave money to businesses to stay afloat; the primary and secondary market corporate credit facilities (PMCC and SMCC) were created to purchase corporate bonds and make them more creditworthy; the term asset-backed securities loan facility (TALF) was resurrected to give companies more money; the Main Street Lending Program was created to give small businesses to spread money around even further; the list goes on.

The net result of these Trump-era programs was to fuel massive wage inflation, which in turn fueled price inflation, especially once the pandemic was over and people were out and about trying to spend money on goods that hade become scarce due to COVID-related manufacturing slowdowns or outright stoppages.

"Shrinkflation" is just "Right Sizing our products for the convenience of the Customer"

"And we tried to conceal it as best we could, so we didn't create anxiety in value-oriented customers, for the benefit of their mental health."

See? It's all the best for the best in the best of all possible worlds!